Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #55

[Boston Corbett]

Just checking in to say that here on the South Shore everyone I see is masked but my county has reported 6887 cases and 623 deaths as this was not immediately stressed. Social distancing now and masks and prayer and with a good state government and national elected officials from MA -- leadership -- we may yet live through this, most of us. I hope this is the case with all of you as well, but I fear much worse, my fellow Americans. Good luck.

 

[tresir2012]

My stores do too but many people are ignoring them. Every time I go out it does seem like more signage has been put up. So maybe more people will start abiding by it by the next time I go out. I have seen an increase in the number of people wearing masks since March, but I attribute that to a huge explosion of cases in my area recently. MOO.

You need to turn around and give them a dirty look. <modsnip> Funny but when I went shopping last week everything went fine and I got to the last stage of paying with my card and putting in the number and as it was ok'd and I was removing it I suddenly coughed without warning. Luckily the cashier was behind plexiglas but I am sure some probably went on the machine. Anyway, I took my receipt and slunk away with my trolley pretty quick.

 

[LadyL]

That happened to us on our one and only outing. I just don't get it. A woman approached our car as we were trying to get into it, stepped between me and the car to bend down and look at the brand badge on the car (!?) She was just a couple of feet from me, so I had to back up.

I think people truly just revert to their normal behavior OR for some people, CoVid just isn't happening. They don't get it, they don't understand.

I know that if I require a simple thing in my lab, there were ALWAYS be 1-2 who don't/can't do it. I've tried to figure out why and one thing I found in simple memory experiments is that in a group of 30 reasonably literate (able to read at 10th grade level) young adults, they struggle mightily with remembering almost anything at all for even a brief period of time. This group is very very slow at getting things. I've been doing lots of memory experiments in lab ever since. There are ways to get them to improve, but basically they need constant reminders to write things down, cues to go look up what they wrote down, etc.

I think any teacher will tell you the same.

The masks DO help protect you though - depending on what kind. That's how Asia has controlled CoVid - more masks than social distancing. If you're using fabric, find a way to insert a filter (there's a great thread here on WS, as you probably know - @JaneEyre posts some excellent info over there, I'm looking into filters).

And consider adding a face shield. But you're right about the social distancing thing. And right now, in my actual neighborhood, everyone I encounter gets it - but going anywhere else (stores, etc) they don't. My not so much at risk husband has been doing all of that. I know he's going to be very irritated if we do go out and anyone else approach us, he was speechless when that woman approached. I was stern with her, btw, I have been a teacher for 40 years.

my Mom sewed two surgical masks together with a coffee filter in between

 

[Henry2326]

BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese authorities reported on Sunday what could be the beginning of a new wave of coronavirus cases in northeast China, with one city in Jilin province being reclassified as high-risk, the top of a three-tier zoning system.

Jilin officials raised the risk level of the city of Shulan to high from medium, having hoisted it to medium from low just the day before after one woman tested positive on May 7.

Eleven new cases in Shulan were confirmed on May 9, all of them members of her family or people who came into contact with her or family members.

The new Wuhan case, the first reported in the epicentre of China's outbreak since April 3, was previously asymptomatic, according to the Hubei provincial health commission.

The 89-year-old man had not left his residential compound in Dongxihu district since the Lunar New Year in late January. His wife also tested positive, though she showed no symptoms, the Wuhan municipal health commission said.

The residential compound has had 20 confirmed cases, and experts say the new infection was mainly due to previous community infections.

After the case was confirmed, medical officials have carried out nucleic acid tests on residents of the compound and found five asymptomatic infections.

The infections highlight the continued potential for new clusters of infections due to carriers who do not look ill or have a fever.

On Sunday, the risk level of Dongxihu district was raised to medium from low.

Northeast China hit by coronavirus infections, Wuhan reports new case

 

[otto]

Good job, @otto. I have to tell you that one thing you wrote keeps me smiling every time I'm feeling down and that was your statement about how your kids feel when they stare at a division symbol.

I look forward to seeing your art. My husband bought me an alto saxophone for my birthday. I used to play. And we dug out all the old sheet music and it turns out, I can remember how to sight read. Our two dogs sit next to my music stand and howl their little hearts out while I play.

I admire your intent to paint. Makes me want to get the sketchpad out. I hope you are well today and look forward to seeing your paintings! As long as it's fun, it will be art.

Thank you! I can only stare at the supplies for another 2 days to ensure that everything is virus free, but having the supplies has me thinking how to visually represent what I feel about life today.

 

[LadyL]

BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese authorities reported on Sunday what could be the beginning of a new wave of coronavirus cases in northeast China, with one city in Jilin province being reclassified as high-risk, the top of a three-tier zoning system.

Jilin officials raised the risk level of the city of Shulan to high from medium, having hoisted it to medium from low just the day before after one woman tested positive on May 7.

Eleven new cases in Shulan were confirmed on May 9, all of them members of her family or people who came into contact with her or family members.

The new Wuhan case, the first reported in the epicentre of China's outbreak since April 3, was previously asymptomatic, according to the Hubei provincial health commission.

The 89-year-old man had not left his residential compound in Dongxihu district since the Lunar New Year in late January. His wife also tested positive, though she showed no symptoms, the Wuhan municipal health commission said.

The residential compound has had 20 confirmed cases, and experts say the new infection was mainly due to previous community infections.

After the case was confirmed, medical officials have carried out nucleic acid tests on residents of the compound and found five asymptomatic infections.

The infections highlight the continued potential for new clusters of infections due to carriers who do not look ill or have a fever.

On Sunday, the risk level of Dongxihu district was raised to medium from low.

Northeast China hit by coronavirus infections, Wuhan reports new case

oh no

 

[Henry2326]

Just copying what I think are the best bits.

Posted at 19:09
Johnson: People should be ‘actively encouraged’ to go to work
Boris Johnson says, as there is more to do, “this is not the time simply to end the lockdown this week”, and instead, he says the government is taking “the first careful steps to modify our measures”.

First up is going to work. The PM says people have been told to work from home if they can, but says: “We now need to stress that anyone who can’t work from home, for instance those in construction or manufacturing, should be actively encouraged to go to work.”

He says he wants it to be safe for those employees, so calls on people to “avoid public transport if at all possible”, adding: “We must and will maintain social distancing, and capacity will therefore be limited.”

The PM says: “So, work from home if you can, but you should go to work if you can’t work from home.”

He also says the government has been working to establish new guidance for employers to make workplaces safe - or “COVID-secure”.

Posted at 19:09
BREAKINGJohnson announces ‘unlimited exercise’
Boris Johnson says the next step from Wednesday will be to “encourage people to take more and even unlimited amounts of outdoor exercise”.

He says: “You can sit in the sun in your local park, you can drive to other destinations, you can even play sports but only with members of your own household.”

But he warns people “must obey the rules on social distancing” and to enforce them, the fines police can give out will be increased.

Johnson says, “with ever increasing data” and being able to track progress, “if we as a nation begin to fulfil the conditions I have set out, then in the next few weeks and months we may be able to go further.”

Posted at 19:10
BREAKINGSchools back June 1 'at earliest'
Schools will return on June 1 "at the earliest", with primary schools returning first, says Boris Johnson.

Posted at 19:13
Johnson: ‘Some hospitality places’ could open in July
Boris Johnson says the next step could be to re-open “at least some of the hospitality industry and other public places” at the earliest by July.

He is tentative, however, saying it is “subject to all these conditions and further scientific advice”, and adding that it would only happen “if and only if the numbers support it”.

But, “provided they are safe and enforce social distancing”, the government hopes to take the step


19:14

Plan 'will get us through second phase

Boris Johnson pays tribute to the efforts of the country so far, praising the “patience and common sense” of the nation.

He describes the elderly as having shown “fortitude”, saying he wants to be able to end their isolation “as fast as we can”.
After praising the “bravery and hard work” of NHS staff and care workers, he also thanks other essential workers including the police, bus drivers and bin collectors, as well as the scientists working to get a vaccine.

He says “millions of everyday acts of kindness and thoughtfulness” have helped get us through the first phase, and we can use “this plan to get us through the next”.

This is why he is hedging.....IMO, the man is between a rock and a hard place, as we say in the south.

Stanford University model shows second wave is much much higher than the first wave. See attached.

At only opening 50%, (purple line) and dependent on herd immunity levels:

Low immunity- 190 deaths per million per day
High immunity- 40 deaths per million per day
67 million population

Low. 190 x 67 = 12,730 deaths per day at peak
High. 40 x 67 = 2,680 deaths per day at peak

At 25% opening, (green line), the deaths are at zero. Not much room for error.

Frankly IMO, this substantiates why UK moved away from their herd immunity idea. They really don't have much room for opening....typically, no leader chooses mass death......I said typically....there are exceptions....(sarcasm)

Extended Results COVID-19

 

[tresir2012]

At this point, I would love a face shield!

I've got myself broke of touching my face and mask when I'm out and about.

You know your comments are welcome.

There is a way of making one with a 2 litre plastic bottle. I will have to find the instructions and post it on here.

(ETA loads on the net to Google so I won't bother posting)

I have a sun visor I am thinking of attaching it to. ( If face coverings become mandatory, which I don't believe they will. ) In Germany masks are mandatory if you go inside eg. A shop for example.

 

[tresir2012]

This is why he is hedging.....IMO, the man is between a rock and a hard place, as we say in the south.

Stanford University mode shows second wave is much much higher than the first wave. See attached.

At only opening 50%, and dependent on herd immunity levels:

Low immunity- 190 deaths per million per day
High immunity- 40 deaths per million per day
67 million population

Low. 190 x 67 = 12,730 deaths per day at peak
High. 40 x 67 = 2,680 deaths per day at peak

At 25% opening, the deaths are at zero. Not much room for error.

Frankly IMO, this substantiates why UK moved away from their herd immunity idea. They really don't have much room for opening....typically, no leader chooses mass death......I said typically....there are exceptions....(sarcasm)

Extended Results COVID-19

I don't think he is hedging or choosing mass death but is being sensible. There are some studies saying risk of catching the virus is 18 times higher indoors than outdoors.

 

[Henry2326]

I don't think he is hedging or choosing mass death but is being sensible. There are some studies saying risk of catching the virus is 18 times higher indoors than outdoors.

Wasn't criticizing him....he has a very bad situation on his hands. Opening up the country right now could be the worse thing possible. Mass death referred to other leaders....

This is a hedge...
"He is tentative, however, saying it is “subject to all these conditions and further scientific advice”, and adding that it would only happen “if and only if the numbers support it”.

 

[Sundog]

There is a way of making one with a 2 litre plastic bottle. I will have to find the instructions and post it on here. I have a sun visor I am thinking of attaching it to. ( If face coverings become mandatory, which I don't believe they will. In Germany they are mandatory if you go inside eg. A shop for example.

I made a couple of these face shields from 2 litre plastic bottles. I used the video that was posted on here a while back. I keep them handy, just in case, if I need to take care of anyone who gets sick. But to go out, I prefer goggles that I bought at the dollar tree store in early March. I haven't gone out yet, but these would work with a mask.

 

[weepingangel]

Some Massachusetts numbers
These 25 Massachusetts communities have the most coronavirus cases
There are 25 communities with at least 650 cases and six places with more than 1,500. Brockton now has more than 3,000 cases. Boston has the most cases in the Bay State with nearly 11,000.
Health officials have said that an updated list will be released every Wednesday.

Eta most recent numbers for all towns including per 100000 rate
Mass. health officials release new town-by-town breakdown of coronavirus cases

 

[tresir2012]

Wasn't criticizing him....he has a very bad situation on his hands. Opening up the country right now could be the worse thing possible. Mass death referred to other leaders....

This is a hedge...
"He is tentative, however, saying it is “subject to all these conditions and further scientific advice”, and adding that it would only happen “if and only if the numbers support it”.

That's not a hedge, it's a threat but he is being polite IMO. If idiots don't follow the rules we will all be locked down again. It is also a test to see if the cases rise at all with the new measures. I would call it steadying the ship. MOO.

 

[Tillicum]

Good afternoon you all. I had a surprise Mother's day visit from one of my sons and his fiancee. We have a 10x16 deck, son and daughter on one end, hubby and me on the other. Made my day.

Son works in a bank inside Walmart. A month ago he was stressed by customers getting too close and not wearing masks. Now he gets a little stressed because they're wearing goggles and full face masks.

 

[Sundog]

That's not a hedge, it's a threat but he is being polite IMO. If idiots don't follow the rules we will all be locked down again. It is also a test to see if the cases rise at all with the new measures. I would call it steadying the ship. MOO.

I like the "stay alert" message for those who are going out as things reopen. Here in Ohio, the Governor's message went from "stay home" to "safer at home" as Ohio reopened and continues to reopen. This message is confusing, but I like "stay alert" as it gives the message that is needed to those who are going back to work with the reopening.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

Son works in a bank inside Walmart. A month ago he was stressed by customers getting too close and not wearing masks. Now he gets a little stressed because they're wearing goggles and full face masks.

There's a meme for that:

 

[24Roses]

Iowa news today: MAY 10: 288 new COVID-19 cases, 13 additional deaths 288 new confirmed cases and 13 more have passed away. We now have 11,959 confirmed cases and 265 have passed away; 5,154 have recovered.
Iowa COVID-19 Information
Family concerned about care facility's transparency when COVID-19 numbers don't match IDPH
* Happy Mother's Day to the mom's on here. May you have a blessed and healthy day. Be safe.

 

[10ofRods]

I'm sick! This model predicts 2000 deaths per day in GEORGIA around JULY/AUGUST.
You can input your state.
I realize it's just a model but...
OMG!
Moo
Extended Results COVID-19

I don't see a graph that predicts that - that's given as a worst case scenario if Georgia does absolutely nothing to close down again in the event of a flare-up. That Purple line is worst case scenario - those have been predicted by all models, because the effects of social distancing, testing, contact tracing are put into mathematical concepts beginning with the R0 rate.

It's much more likely that Georgians will use common sense if they start to experience another exponential rise. It is sobering, though, to see that if Georgians (or anyone) goes back to the "original position" (regular daily life, no sanitizing, no testing, etc) that's what could happen (that's what the Purple line is meant to predict).

The Green line is more likely to happen - but do note that without some suppression techniques, it too could go exponential by fall - unless Georgia takes measures to prevent it.

If Georgia were to stop testing, stop isolating CV19 patients in hospital, stop testing of essential workers, not require masks except surgical masks in most hospital situations - well, yes, you'd be on the Purple line. But if even 25% of your population tries to continue proper disease management, your next exponential rise will be delayed until Fall, at which time SoC (standard of care) nationwide will surely have shifted and more treatments will be available

But yeah - it's sobering to think what would happen if absolutely everyone goes back to normal. Surely Georgia's doctors will continue to want tests of patients before admitting them so that they know which unit to send them to. Hopefully, Georgia won't discharge elderly CoVid patients back to their nursing homes...

 

[10ofRods]

"There is a dire and urgent need for development of rapid, accurate wearable diagnostics to identify and isolate pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases and track/prevent the spread of the virus," said the request for proposals issued this week.

The RFP does not specify where on the body the device should be worn, and companies bidding for the contract were encouraged to make use of existing technology as much as possible.

The military is also working to adapt existing technologies to help fight the virus, such as fitting goggles used in battle to take the temperature of 300 troops in 25 minutes.

The Pentagon is also planning on installing an infrared sensor to measure body temperature when its 20,000 employees return to work.

Earlier this week reporters the Pentagon confirmed it issued a memo saying any positive diagnosis of COVID-19 is "permanently disqualifying" for military service, even if the applicant has fully recovered, but Army Gen. Mark Milley later told reporters the policy outlined in the memo had not been implemented.
Army solicits bids for wearable technology to detect COVID-19

Wow.

Thank you so much for this summary, @imstilla.grandma (good to see you, btw, hope you are chipper and well).

So, the idea seems to be to give VERY strong encouragement to military people to not get CoVid. If they do, they're out forever. I don't think this is meant to be a longterm policy if in fact nearly everyone in the US ends up getting CoVid (which hopefully won't happen - although the issue is going to be around for a very long time)

The idea about the fever sensors sounds good on the surface, except that people are most virulent and contagious from 2 days after infection until they get a fever, when the virulence drops somewhat. Still, at least it would be catching CoVid symptoms and make the testing process more robust.

 

[10ofRods]

If the parents prompt them, they can line up safely. Otherwise, probably not. Jmo

I wouldn't be so sure. Outdoors, a crowd of children where even 1 or 2 are transmitters can infect a lot more downwind. 6 feet would not be enough, even if the children were silent. If I had a small child, I would want at least 10 feet if the other kids were strangers and laughing, shouting and bouncing around. If it were a very still day (which never happens where I live - don't know about your area), I'd be even more worried.

If we ever get good data on viral transmission among children (hard to get with the schools closed), I might be less worried.

CoVid is known to travel up to 25 feet if someone sneezes or coughs and if there's moving air. That's why someone in the next aisle over from you in a grocery store (say 15 feet away) can still infect you. That's why masks are recommended (especially for the coughers and sneezers).