Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #67

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Re: G4 Swine / July 1 WHO Briefing / transcript / Press briefings

Dr. Michael Ryan:
“With regard to the issue of the … You referred to the new virus. I think it’s important for us to clarify that the, I believe the virus you’re referring to is the Eurasian avian-like H1N1 swine influenza virus, which has been a virus that’s been under surveillance by Chinese authorities, and by the global influenza surveillance network around the world, the WHO collaborating centers.

It’s been under surveillance since 2011. And in fact, the publication, the most recent publication is a publication of all of that surveillance data over that time. And obviously reporting both on the evolution of that virus within the swine population, but also in terms of occupational exposures to workers over that time. It’s very important work, and it’s work that is again, carried out in collaboration with the WHO collaborating center at China CDC, the other collaborating centers around the world, including the WHO collaborating center for influenza. That’s CDC in Atlanta, and again shows the vital importance of the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System.

The WHO collaborating center network, who keep these viruses under constant, constant surveillance. There are many, many, many avian flu and influenza viruses out there that have pandemic potential. We learned that in 2009, where a pandemic emerged in the Americas and we constantly need to stay on the alert. We need to continue to carry a very, very good surveillance on this G4 genotype, and we expect that, that will continue in the coming months and years. But again, it’s important I think, to reassure people that this is not a new virus, this is a virus that is under surveillance. We are concerned with any viruses that show potential to infect humans, and we will continue with our collaborating centers and the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System, to keep this virus under close surveillance.”

[...]

“Costas Davinas: (33:55)
Yes. Thank you for taking my question. I’m coming back to the G4 virus. Can you give us, please, some [inaudible 00:34:04] information’s about this new virus and how dangerous can it be in connection with COVID-19? Thank you.

Dr. Michael Ryan: (34:14)
I will begin. I think I’ve given you, number one, this is a recent, a very recent publication. As I said, the viruses discussed in the paper that’s just been published are not new. And in fact, these G4 genotype was previously reported in swine in China, with the Harvard Veterinary Research Institute in a 2016 publication. The G4 genotype have been the dominant genotype in swine populations in China since 2016. The interesting finding in the latest report, is the zero prevalence among swine workers, which needs to be looked into carefully with an elevated zero prevalence rate against the G4 virus being reported. But this needs to be reviewed and looked at, and we need to really understand the study design, and the context, and exactly how that process was carried out.

Sporadic zoonotic infections, infections that transfer from swine to humans with the G4 genotype, have been reported in the past. And as I said, the WHO collaborating centers, particularly the one that China CDC and the one, our collaborating center in the United States at CDC in Atlanta, have been working on this Eurasian avian-like H1N1 variant. And this has been, as I said, under surveillance now for many years. What is interesting in collaboration with our flu and the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in monitoring this, different candidate vaccine viruses of closely related strains have been developed by WHO at the China CDC, and they’re available for vaccine development and preparedness purposes. This has been a huge part of developing the …

… preparedness purposes. This has been a huge part of developing the pandemic influenza preparedness framework and ensuring that we are constantly checking on each and every one of these viruses and ensuring that candidate vaccine strands are available for rapid development should any one of these numerous strands ever show a likelihood of spreading successfully or efficiently in human populations. But again, I’d like just to restate that this is a finding from surveillance that’s been carried out over many years. These are not new viruses. We always take any variant strains of swine flu viruses extremely seriously, and that is why we will work and continue to work with our collaborating centers around the world on the surveillance and the development of countermeasures. Maria?

Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove: (36:48)
Just to add that this paper highlights the importance of the work that WHO and partners do with our collaborating centers globally, looking at viruses that are circulating in animals. This one happens to be a swine influenza virus, but there are other coronaviruses that are circulating in animals. There are other known pathogens that are out there.

And what we are doing is we are working with partner agencies at FAO and OIE, with academic institutions across the globe, with national centers for disease control all over the world to conduct surveillance in wild animals, to conduct surveillance in domesticated animals and to conduct surveillance in those animal workers to ensure that if there is a virus that spills over, that we are able to detect it, and we are able to detect it rapidly. There’s a whole body of work and scientists that are working globally on all continents that are looking at these viruses. And for those of you who are watching who may not know that, I think it’s important to mention.

So as Mike has said, this is not a new virus. This is a paper that is reporting on surveillance activities that have taken place between 2011 and 2018 in China. We’re grateful for all of our partners who are doing work in this area of looking at the epidemic potential. We always say essentially is a virus that is circulating in animals, it can spill over into humans. We call that a zoonotic transmission and the potential for that virus to continue to spread. But this is an important area of work and it highlights the need to remain focused on this. Even though COVID is happening globally, we still need to ensure that our surveillance programs for influenza are continuing and that we strengthen them so that we are able to detect these viruses spilling over rapidly.

Dr. Michael Ryan: (38:35)
If I could just add to that, that the global influenza surveillance and response system collaborate centers, national influenza centers around the world are constantly doing surveillance for seasonal influenza. And they are the basis of developing the yearly seasonal influenza vaccines for the northern and southern hemispheres. They carry out active and ongoing surveillance of avian flu strains around the world. All of that infrastructure has been turned and is now looking also at COVID-19 and doing sentinel surveillance for both COVID-19 and for other influenza viruses.

This is a hugely important global good. This is a massive piece of global health security. And I would remind our member states and our donors that this system is constantly underfunded and this system is in constant threat of being not funded. Our colleagues, Rick Brennan is online from the Eastern Mediterranean region. We spent the last five years investing and expanding the influenza surveillance and response capacities in the Eastern Mediterranean and on the African continent. And we now face a situation due to funding shortages that we may have to pull back on these investments. And these are the trade-offs and unfortunate trade-offs that we may have to make.“
 
We have the mask mandate im California yet many people in my area ignore it.
I live in Sacramento and I would say that the participation rate of people wearing masks is quite high.

I stopped at the grocery store near my home after work today and every single person I saw was wearing a mask.
 
No offense taken by this US citizen. I don’t blame the Canadians at all.

It is a crime how the pandemic is being handled by US leadership and in many US states (mine included).
I’m Canadian and I’m frightened enough of this virus. My heart just breaks for my American friends on this site. It must be absolutely terrifying for you.
 
A shocking map of USA and Canada showing red markings denoting Covid 19 cases.

Take note: "For example, a single red dot in New York City or Los Angeles accounts for more cases than in all of Canada."

I think I can speak for most Canadians--- we don't want the border opened.

This map shows why it would be 'terrifying' to open Canada-U.S. border


image.jpg


This photo shows COVID-19 cases in Canada and the United States. The data on the map above is on a more localized level in the United States, which makes it appear more red, but there are an overwhelming number of cases south of the border compared to Canada. (Source: Johns Hopkins University)
 
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Apparently the CDC is recommending it for all schools, regardless. And they are saying that the Fed Govt will provide lots of support.

I guess if Fed leadership in disease control recommends it, it perhaps takes some of the heat off the state leaders?

Sometime next week the CDC will provide guidelines, according to this news report.

Well, let’s hope and pray that the 3 weeks between next week’s CDC guidelines announcement & Florida’s school reopening dates will actually be enough time to properly implement the support.
 
Scientists warn of potential wave of COVID-linked brain damage

“LONDON (Reuters) - Scientists warned on Wednesday of a potential wave of coronavirus-related brain damage as new evidence suggested COVID-19 can lead to severe neurological complications, including inflammation, psychosis and delirium.“

[...]

““Whether we will see an epidemic on a large scale of brain damage linked to the pandemic – perhaps similar to the encephalitis lethargica outbreak in the 1920s and 1930s after the 1918 influenza pandemic – remains to be seen,”
said Michael Zandi, from UCL’s Institute of Neurology, who co-led the study.”

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Eta, hmmm, hadn’t heard about that one, I don’t think:

Encephalitis lethargica: 100 years after the epidemic

“Encephalitis lethargica is a neurological syndrome that spread across Europe and then the world beginning in the winter of 1916–17, and continuing into the 1930s. Although the exact number of people afflicted with encephalitis lethargica during the epidemic period is unknown, it is estimated to be more than one million worldwide (Ravenholt and Foege, 1982)”

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Eta: Going down the rabbit hole, think I’ll exit out after this one :eek:

“All of them had initially suffered from encephalitis lethargica, a mysterious, devastating epidemic disease of the early part of the twentieth century that probably killed about 500,000 people worldwide (figs 1 and 2).1 Although some recent experimental and historical analyses have concluded that encephalitis lethargica was unlikely to have been related to the 1918 Spanish influenza epidemic, which most likely resulted from a mutation of the H1N1 virus, we think the available data are insufficient to eliminate influenza as the cause. Thus, there is a possibility that, should the H5N1 virus mutate so that it too becomes directly contagious between humans, and a bird-based influenza epidemic occurs, encephalitis lethargica will reappear.“
 
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Scientists warn of potential wave of COVID-linked brain damage
“LONDON (Reuters) - Scientists warned on Wednesday of a potential wave of coronavirus-related brain damage as new evidence suggested COVID-19 can lead to severe neurological complications, including inflammation, psychosis and delirium.“

[...]

““Whether we will see an epidemic on a large scale of brain damage linked to the pandemic – perhaps similar to the encephalitis lethargica outbreak in the 1920s and 1930s after the 1918 influenza pandemic – remains to be seen,” said Michael Zandi, from UCL’s Institute of Neurology, who co-led the study.”

—-

eta, hmm, hadn’t heard about that one, I don’t think:

Encephalitis lethargica: 100 years after the epidemic

“Encephalitis lethargica is a neurological syndrome that spread across Europe and then the world beginning in the winter of 1916–17, and continuing into the 1930s. Although the exact number of people afflicted with encephalitis lethargica during the epidemic period is unknown, it is estimated to be more than one million worldwide (Ravenholt and Foege, 1982)”

Adding to the first quoted article, this may be of interest to members who have had Covid-19....

He is running a international research project at covidbrainstudy.com where patients can sign up to complete a series of cognitive tests to see whether their brain functions have altered since getting COVID-19.

“This disease is affecting an enormous number of people,” Owen said. “That’s why it’s so important to collect this information now.”
BBM
Scientists warn of potential wave of COVID-linked brain damage

L
ink to brain study:
COVID-19 Brain Study | Western University, Sunnybrook HSC, University of Toronto, & Cambridge Brain Sciences
 
Florida hospitals more worried about staffing than space as COVID cases surge
https://www.fox13news.com/news/flor...bout-staffing-than-space-as-covid-cases-surge
“It's not so much bed space that hospitals are worried about; it's the staff to take care of patients.”

[...]

“One of the ways they're utilizing staffing is postponing elective surgeries.“

[...]

"”We are seeing an increase in demand for testing, outpatient care, and inpatient services due to COVID-19. In order to meet these demands, we will be suspending all non-acute surgical procedures," a spokesperson said in an internal email sent to patients Monday and later obtained by FOX 13.“
 
My retired teacher husband is watching with horror the reporting on the pressure and push to reopen schools. There is no question that being out of school for an extended period is a problem for working parents and not best for kids. Teachers teach because they love their kids. It’s not that teacher’s don’t want to be with their kids and teach them, but this is uncharted territory with a lot of moving parts to figure out before it can happen safely. Any adult who has spent time teaching elementary school knows this. So, how much risk are teachers and parents willing to take to go back to school? Or will they have a choice?

The basic story...
What Matters: The truth about Trump's call to reopen schools - CNNPolitics

Trump says White House will pressure governors to open schools

What is needed for schools to open safely...
Want Schools Open In The Fall? Then Pay For It.

Schools face tough road to fall opening

Educator and NEA president’s response...
See this educator's strong response to Trump's school reopening plan - CNN Video

And to be fair, a word from “reopeners”...
The School Reopeners Think America Is Forgetting About Kids
 
Eric Toner has been planning for a pandemic for years. He's briefed world leaders on outbreaks and how to best prepare entire nations for mass casualties. He's simulated epidemics in real time and studied the world's response to major global health emergencies like SARS and the 1918 influenza pandemic.

But nothing could've prepared him for how the COVID-19 pandemic would play out.

Toner is a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and a world leader in pandemic preparedness. The threat of a novel coronavirus is not new to him. In fact, in October 2019, Toner and the team at Johns Hopkins ran a coronavirus pandemic simulation in New York, months before COVID-19 started spreading across the world. As part of the half-day, tabletop exercise, Toner met with other health professionals to walk through a theoretical coronavirus outbreak and examine how governments and private businesses would respond.

Johns Hopkins has run these simulations for years, with Hollywood-sounding code names like Dark Winter (smallpox) and Clade X ("a biologically-engineered, intentionally-released airborne pathogen" which caused hundreds of millions of hypothetical deaths). The goal of the simulations is to help public health experts and policymakers better prepare for the eventual day a real pandemic arrives.

Now that day has come.
'We'll be living with masks for years': COVID-19 through the eyes of a pandemic expert

Very interesting article. What stood out to me is the bottom line.


As for those who refuse to wear a mask, Toner doesn't mince his words.
"They will get over it," he says. "It's just a question of how many people get sick and die before they get over it."
 
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Is the CDC serious? I’d think school would be a priority in areas that have a handle on things. and keep it that way. Florida wouldn’t be one of those places.

locally - hotspots being distributed this month. Chrome books to students without a home computer last month or late May ?

cleaning products. I hear there are major shortages of the raw materials. No link so moo/rumor

PPE I posted a link a few days ago how this is still an issue even now even in places that aren’t currently being overwhelmed

just hoping things stay ok here in the NE. I’m expecting some sort of resurgence. At some point.

Apparently, in two, three, four weeks the US is going to be in very good shape.

'We are in a good place,' says Trump amid record spike
 
More thoughts on re-opening schools and alternatives to public school some parents are considering.


Most K through 12 superintendents aren't ready to say when their schools will open for in-person instruction, according to a nationwide survey released in June by AASA, The School Superintendents Association.
Only 5% said they were confident of reopening when state and local guidelines allowed.
Many superintendents who participated in the survey also said it's been a challenge providing for students equitably through the pandemic, citing the difficulty of offering adequate special education, online learning, health services and other essentials. Lack of internet access in students' homes is also a problem, said 60% of superintendents.
<snip>

Educators are eager to return to their classrooms and teach their students in person, but they don't want to do it without a plan that adequately protects everyone," said Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers in a June 22 statement responding to Gov. Abbot.
Everyone is relieved to see growing evidence that children are not as severely impacted by the virus as adults. But teachers are more vulnerable. Secondary school teachers in the United States have an average age of 42.9, and many work into their 50s and early 60s, when a severe Covid-19 illness becomes more likely.
One out of every five teachers said they're unlikely to return to school in the fall, according to a USA Today/Ipsos poll.
"A no-mask, no-testing, no-worries attitude is exactly what will spread the virus," Weingarten said.
<snip>

While many imagine homeschool as limited to single households, Weston said that some 70% of families contacting his organization have expressed interest in forming multiple-household homeschooling groups. (The NHSA calls these Parent Organized Discovery Sites.)
Similar ideas are also gaining traction, such as the in-home "microschool" model Prenda. Website traffic was up 737% this June over the same month last year, said Prenda founder and CEO Kelly Smith.

More at link:
The upcoming school year has everyone worried. Here's what experts say - CNN
 
Perhaps this means that all the test vaccines are going to have to be adjusted? To take into consideration this mutation.

If so, there are going to be more delays in any potential vaccine.
If it mutated to be less deadly maybe we won't need a vaccine or maybe the vaccine will just need modifying every year, like the flu vaccine.
 
Texas:

“Texas surpassed 10,000 new coronavirus cases in a single day Tuesday for the first time, crossing a sobering milestone rarely seen since the pandemic first hit the U.S. in March.“

[...]

““We have rapid spread of COVID-19 in the state of Texas right now,” Abbott told San Antonio television station KENS.“

Texas passes 10,000 confirmed new virus cases in single day

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TEA mandates schools offer in-person classes, as Texas sees 10K COVID-19 cases in one day

“The Texas Education Agency released new guidelines on Tuesday outlining best practices for schools to reopen for the 2020-21 school year, including mandating that districts offer in-person classes to all parents who wish to send their students back to campuses.

The new guidelines outline options for on-campus and virtual instruction, as well as health and safety procedures and state resources available to students and staff.”

[...]

“According to the TEA, parents will be able to choose either in-person or remote learning options and may change their preference as needed.“

—-

SY 20-21 Public Health Planning Guidance
July 7, 2020

https://tea.texas.gov/sites/default/files/covid/covid19-SY-20-21-Public-Health-Guidance.pdf

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Gov. Abbott answers questions about masks in schools, what it would take to shut the state again, GOP convention in Houston and more

“Question: The TEA just released new guidelines. What do parents need to know about precautions on campuses and could these plans change before August?”

Abbott: The most important thing for parents to know about is that we’re putting public safety first and flexibility second. What I mean by public safety is we want to ensure that when schools open, the safety of children, the safety of parents, the safety of teachers, all will be the primary consideration.

With regard to flexibility, that means, that there may be sometimes even perhaps when the school year opens, when it’s not going to be possible for children to go to the classroom because of an outbreak of COVID. In that case, it’s going to be incumbent upon the school to make sure they have the flexibility for the students to be able to successfully have remote learning opportunities, working with the teachers.

Those programs are articulated by the TEA and understand that the TEA has been working for months with superintendents, with educators to make sure they have a plan that will work for school districts. But we do want to provide school districts with a level of flexibility, to make sure they will be able to provide the appropriate and safe setting for everybody involved in the school.”

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Texas parents can choose whether or not to send their child to school next year, TEA says


As the coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc in Texas, one of the most hotly debated issues is whether Texas schools should resume in-person classes in the fall.

Students have been home since mid-March after the pandemic first took hold in the Houston-area and many parents have grappled with decisions like childcare, learning and whether or not they feel comfortable sending their children back to school.“

[...]

“If you do send your children to school, masks will be required while in school buildings, per Gov. Greg Abbott’s latest executive order requiring Texans wear masks. The exceptions to this order will be children under the age of 10. Other exceptions to this order can be found here.

ASK 2: Will my child have to wear a mask when they go back to school in the fall and what are the rules?

“There will almost certainly be situations that necessitate temporary school closure due to positive COVID-19 cases in schools,” TEA wrote. “Parents, educators, and school administrators should be prepared for this in the event that it occurs, while actively working to prevent it through prevention and mitigation practices.””
 
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Fauci: 'We Can't Completely Rule Out' Possibility Of Airborne Coronavirus Spread | NBC News NOW

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Worth a watch imo:

Dr. Anthony Fauci discusses the coronavirus with top U.S. health official — 7/6/2020

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In the span of a week and a half, the number of coronavirus cases in the United States has doubled, yet officials are saying this is still the first wave of the pandemic.

"We are still knee-deep in the first wave of this," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in a Facebook and Twitter livestream Monday. "I would say, this would not be considered a wave. It was a surge, or a resurgence of infections superimposed upon a baseline ... that really never got down to where we wanted to go."”

US coronavirus: US is still 'knee-deep' in the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, Fauci says - CNN
 
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UK Gov advice re A/C.


Air conditioning and ventilation during the coronavirus outbreak - HSE news

Air conditioning
The risk of air conditioning spreading coronavirus (COVID-19) in the workplace is extremely low.

You can continue using most types of air conditioning system as normal. But, if you use a centralised ventilations system that removes and circulates air to different rooms it is recommended that you turn off recirculation and use a fresh air supply.

You do not need to adjust air conditioning systems that mix some of the extracted air with fresh air and return it to the room as this increases the fresh air ventilation rate. Also, you do not need to adjust systems in individual rooms or portable units as these operate on 100% recirculation.

If you’re unsure, ask the advice of your heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) engineer or adviser.

General ventilation
Employers must, by law, ensure an adequate supply of fresh air in the workplace and this has not changed.

Good ventilation can help reduce the risk of spreading coronavirus, so focus on improving general ventilation, preferably through fresh air or mechanical systems.

Where possible, consider ways to increase the supply of fresh air, for example, by opening windows and doors (unless fire doors).

Also consider if you can improve the circulation of outside air and prevent pockets of stagnant air in occupied spaces. You can do this by using ceiling fans, desk fans or opening windows, for example.

The risk of transmission through the use of ceiling and desk fans is extremely low.


Does air conditioning help spread the coronavirus? | DW | 06.07.2020

With summer on the horizon in many countries, people may be tempted to turn on the air conditioning to get some relief from the heat. But after cooling systems were linked to a coronavirus outbreak at a German meat-processing plant, how safe is it?
 
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If it mutated to be less deadly maybe we won't need a vaccine or maybe the vaccine will just need modifying every year, like the flu vaccine.


Sure, it would be great if it mutated again and became less dangerous. But that doesn't appear to be what has happened, at this point in time.


Choe added the mutation didn't impact the lethality of the virus for those infected, only how contagious it became, according to the paper.
Coronavirus mutation may have made virus more contagious: report
 
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