Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #77

[tresir2012]

Deleted

 

[Rocco]

four economists used anonymized cellphone data, local health records and data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to conclude that an estimated 266,796 coronavirus cases could be attributed to the rally.

Sturgis Motorcycle Rally linked to more than 260,000 coronavirus cases, economists estimate

similar numbers to another study posted Legally Bland by a few pages ago:

Apologies if already posted, paper by Center for Health Economics & Policy Studies at San Diego State University on the Sturgis rally. They estimate it resulted in 250,000 cases and a public health cost of $12.bn.

The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event:The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19

Aren't both links the same study? Conducted by the IZA Institute?

 

[RANCH]

did you notice the two different studies posted done by different economists in different countries with similar results?

Yes I did.

 

[Rocco]

did you notice the two different studies posted done by different economists in different countries with similar results?

Here are 4 of the economists:
Dhaval Dave Bentley University, IZA, NBER and CHEPS
Andrew I. Friedson University of Colorado Denver and CHEPS
Drew McNichols CHEPS, University of San Diego-California and San Diego State University
Joseph J. Sabia CHEPS, San Diego State University and IZA

Who are the other 4 from a different study?

 

[MimosaMornings]

As Georgia universities deal with COVID-19 cases, parents group fights to keep campuses open

“Across the state, college parents are organizing to keep their kids at school.

A Facebook group called “Keep Georgia Universities Open” has more than 5,100 members. Many are parents who say they want to protect their child’s health and that means them staying on campus.

As students returned to campus in August, the number of COVID-19 cases rose.”

More than 6,000 people have now died of coronavirus in Georgia

 

[Cool Cats]

As Georgia universities deal with COVID-19 cases, parents group fights to keep campuses open

“Across the state, college parents are organizing to keep their kids at school.

A Facebook group called “Keep Georgia Universities Open” has more than 5,100 members. Many are parents who say they want to protect their child’s health and that means them staying on campus.

As students returned to campus in August, the number of COVID-19 cases rose.”

More than 6,000 people have now died of coronavirus in Georgia

I can't find anything in these articles that backs up the assertions that a college student's health is better protected if they are staying on campus as opposed to living at home and taking on-line classes.

"Many are parents who say they want to protect their child’s health and that means them staying on campus."

 

[SouthAussie]

<RSBM>

And things are getting better! (I hate to jinx us, but the US seems to be finally coming down off its "first wave.")

Oh I hope so. All of these deaths are really distressing. I hope, too, that autumn and winter does not cause another spike. They say it could be worse, but I hope it is better - with people more socially distanced due to the weather. At least in the northern states.

Cases in the UK seem to be rising again. As they are in Spain, France, and Germany. Not sure if that is due to the weather growing cooler, or exactly what is causing it. Complacency? I know that complacency is said to be our biggest downfall.


Nonetheless, after enduring the considerable pain of a prolonged lockdown, nobody wants to see the UK going backwards on the progress it has made. As numbers rise, ministers face difficult decisions about how to get on top of this situation and ensure schools remain open. If the government doesn’t do anything and lets the virus spread, hospitalisations will increase, deaths will follow and ministers will be blamed for not doing enough to suppress the virus.
Coronavirus cases are rising again in the UK. Here's what should happen next | Devi Sridhar

 

[LadyL]

Aren't both links the same study? Conducted by the IZA Institute?

yes you're right - I was confused by the study being published in Germany when the economists are American
thanks for pointing that out

 

[HongKongPhooey]

Oh I hope so. All of these deaths are really distressing. I hope, too, that autumn and winter does not cause another spike. They say it could be worse, but I hope it is better - with people more socially distanced due to the weather. At least in the northern states.

Cases in the UK seem to be rising again. As they are in Spain, France, and Germany. Not sure if that is due to the weather growing cooler, or exactly what is causing it. Complacency? I know that complacency is said to be our biggest downfall.


Nonetheless, after enduring the considerable pain of a prolonged lockdown, nobody wants to see the UK going backwards on the progress it has made. As numbers rise, ministers face difficult decisions about how to get on top of this situation and ensure schools remain open. If the government doesn’t do anything and lets the virus spread, hospitalisations will increase, deaths will follow and ministers will be blamed for not doing enough to suppress the virus.
Coronavirus cases are rising again in the UK. Here's what should happen next | Devi Sridhar

I think we have trouble ahead in the UK. Schools return this week, Unis already. People are still travelling to countries on our quarantine list, for sun holidays. I see photos all over facebook of people socialising without masks, and not just teens and 20s, people in 30s, 40s.

Local lockdowns are not enough.

Buckle up

JMO

 

[Rocco]

yes you're right - I was confused by the study being published in Germany when the economists are American
thanks for pointing that out

I was confused too at first so I had to double check.

 

[HongKongPhooey]

Social gatherings over six to be banned in England

Aaaand here we go

 

[SouthAussie]

yes you're right - I was confused by the study being published in Germany when the economists are American
thanks for pointing that out

They are actually a quite wide-ranged group of economic statisticians and others. They have about 1,600 scholars from all around the world that do non-profit research about worldwide economies. They have thousands of research papers that can be accessed through their website.

They are primarily concerned about the economic effect of various events ... covid being one of those events.

IZA | IZA - Institute of Labor Economics

 

[seekingjustice**]

Phase 3 trials for the coronavirus vaccine being developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca have been placed on a hold after a 'serious adverse event' was reported in a participant in the UK, according to Stat News.

Serious adverse events are suspected reactions to vaccines or drugs that require hospitalization, are life-threateningly or deadly.

AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine trials put on hold after suspected 'serious' reaction | Daily Mail Online

 

[SouthAussie]

Edit: Sorry seekingjustice, I see we were crossposting.
It just came up as Breaking News on morning TV.

More to come, I imagine.

A large, Phase 3 study testing a Covid-19 vaccine being developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford at dozens of sites across the U.S. has been put on hold due to a suspected serious adverse reaction in a participant in the United Kingdom.
A spokesperson for AstraZeneca, a frontrunner in the race for a Covid-19 vaccine, said in a statement that the company’s “standard review process triggered a pause to vaccination to allow review of safety data.”

It was not immediately clear who placed the hold on the trial, though it is possible it was placed voluntarily by AstraZeneca and not ordered by any regulatory agency.
The spokesperson described the pause as “a routine action which has to happen whenever there is a potentially unexplained illness in one of the trials, while it is investigated, ensuring we maintain the integrity of the trials.

AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine study is put on hold

 

[Sundog]

Uh oh ... a setback with the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. (Breaking News on TV)
The study has been put on hold. One of the UK test participants has had a suspected serious adverse reaction.


Here is a first quick link. More to come, I imagine.

A large, Phase 3 study testing a Covid-19 vaccine being developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford at dozens of sites across the U.S. has been put on hold due to a suspected serious adverse reaction in a participant in the United Kingdom.
A spokesperson for AstraZeneca, a frontrunner in the race for a Covid-19 vaccine, said in a statement that the company’s “standard review process triggered a pause to vaccination to allow review of safety data.”

It was not immediately clear who placed the hold on the trial, though it is possible it was placed voluntarily by AstraZeneca and not ordered by any regulatory agency.
The spokesperson described the pause as “a routine action which has to happen whenever there is a potentially unexplained illness in one of the trials, while it is investigated, ensuring we maintain the integrity of the trials.

AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine study is put on hold

Sounds like this may be a just a routine pause out of an abundance of caution and that the participant will recover. Hopefully there will be few adverse reactions out of the 50,000 participants worldwide and they can move forward with the trial

 

[SouthAussie]

The decision to tap the brakes jolted investors, sending AstraZeneca’s U.S.-traded shares down sharply, while boosting the stocks of some rivals developing different potential Covid-19 shots.

Meixell said that the company was working to expedite its review of the incident in order to keep the trial moving along. Companies have been racing to find a Covid-19 vaccine quickly in hopes of blunting the pandemic as another flu season looms in the Northern Hemisphere.

AstraZeneca Pauses Vaccine Trial After Unexplained Illness

 

[tresir2012]

AstraZeneca shares drop 6% after company announces 'routine' safety pause in coronavirus vaccine trial

Oh oh.

"An individual familiar with the development said researchers were told the hold was placed on the trial out of “an abundance of caution” after a suspected serious adverse reaction in a participant in the United Kingdom, according to STAT News.

It’s unclear how long the hold on the trial will last. AstraZeneca began its trial late last month and is one of three companies currently in late-stage testing for a potential vaccine. The other two are Pfizer and Moderna, which both began their trials in late July. "

 

[neesaki]

I also wonder the same thing. My house is able to survive two months, more if necessary. Lots of powdered milk and beans. LOL Prescriptions may be the only issue I can think of right now. What are ya'll thoughts for the coming months? We don't know how this is going to play out, so I'm very curious as to what websleuth people think. Please don't think I'm trying to predict, this is just the way I feel, thinking if we don't shut down again, we are going to have a bad outbreak. One that has me very frightened. People I'm scared, very. Also, I don't want to be tricked into thinking there will be a safe vaccine.

People are getting very lax in my area. We went to a local restaurant two or three weeks ago, and there was definite social distancing in place. All servers were wearing masks, every other table not occupied. Bar seating very limited. Then we went back yesterday, there were people sitting at the bar shoulder to shoulder, not one empty seat. Almost all tables occupied. And one waitress was walking around to the tables with her mask pulled down around her chin. I asked the hostess about it, she said she didn't know, didn't know what to say or to do. She was apparently as confused by it as I was.

 

[SouthAussie]

People are getting very lax in my area. We went to a local restaurant two or three weeks ago, and there was definite social distancing in place. All servers were wearing masks, every other table not occupied. Bar seating very limited. Then we went back yesterday, there were people sitting at the bar shoulder to shoulder, not one empty seat. Almost all tables occupied. And one waitress was walking around to the tables with her mask pulled down around her chin. I asked the hostess about it, she said she didn't know, didn't know what to say or to do. She was apparently as confused by it as I was.

Seems to me that it is up to the venue owners and local authorities to keep a rein on these things. If the venue allows greater capacity, people will relax and think that everything is now okay. When it certainly is not. imo

We went to dinner the other night ... still every other table, remain seated, sterilise-able menus, order at the counter. Most places also have online booking on their websites, so you can be sure of getting a table at a specific time.
Seems very normal now. It hasn't been difficult to adjust, finally. Everything covid seems quite normal now. I think we are settling into it.

The thing that I miss the most are our many festivals in my state. (We are known as the festival state.) I think we are going to try to have a few of them later in Spring - which we are now in - but they will be reduced in size, from what I am hearing.

 

[MrX]

Social gatherings over six to be banned in England

Aaaand here we go

Oh, dear. So how does that work - a pub can only allow six people in the door, or tables are limited to six people, and each table is six feet apart?

Saw two odd things today: first, on the way to lunch there were a couple of panhandlers by the expressway off ramp. Haven't seen them in forever, but that could have been the heat. They did have masks. Then, at lunch, two millennials sat at the bar, ordered booze, and proceeded to drink with their masks on - I think one was drinking wine through a straw. And we are down to double-digit cases without having done anything special. I guess it really was tubing and gyms!