Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #79

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From what I recall Governor Cuomo said it was the people from China who travelled to New York in droves that spread the virus there- it took a while to recognize that was the problem. By then it was too late. the genie was out of the bottle

I think the NYC outbreak started from European travellers.

The virus from China was first found in a man in Washington state who had been in Wuhan.

I recall because the US had two covid strains going at the same time.


A new study has found evidence that the first COVID-19 cases in New York City originated in Europe and occurred as early as February.
New York coronavirus outbreak originated in Europe, new study finds

Health officials in Washington state report the first case in the US. The man is in his 30s and is in good condition at a hospital in Everett, Washington, after returning to the area last week from China. He was believed to have travelled to the Wuhan area.
Coronavirus timeline: from Wuhan to Washington state
 
I think the NYC outbreak started from European travellers.

The virus from China was first found in a man in Washington state who had been in Wuhan.

I recall because the US had two covid strains going at the same time.


A new study has found evidence that the first COVID-19 cases in New York City originated in Europe and occurred as early as February.
New York coronavirus outbreak originated in Europe, new study finds

Health officials in Washington state report the first case in the US. The man is in his 30s and is in good condition at a hospital in Everett, Washington, after returning to the area last week from China. He was believed to have travelled to the Wuhan area.
Coronavirus timeline: from Wuhan to Washington state

I am sure that Covid was circulating in Las Vegas since December. Look at this article in the Las Vegas Sun, dated February, 2020. Talking about flu deaths. They didn't even consider Covid, because it wasn't really on the news then.

Health District reports 11 flu-related deaths in Clark County in 1 week

This article is from St. George, Utah, about 100 miles north of Las Vegas. Read the comments about the Coronavirus. How little we knew...
Possible case of coronavirus reported in Las Vegas, Southern Utah health officials prepared
 
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RSBM Because deaths among kids are so rare, there hasn't been much focus on kids and CoVid.

I'm very isolated, yet live in a very diverse hood. I would think that 99% at this time with all the kids in this close hood very well understand the real issue, in that kids carry and pass back up to elders.

That's how many viewed way back would happen. It's how it works. For those that have been following here it now is clear I would think.

It's intuitively obvious (well now for many, not at onset) the first to hit/die/go rampant would be elder care. Then spread to rural. Then spread through children back up to elders.

Looking back, do not most agree that "this makes epidemiological sense"? Elders/close with rotating were sitting ducks. Then, of course... the most congested urban areas spread to rural with low density. And then again, resurgences with college and school kids going back face to face.

SMDH... this is 101 viral pandemic.

Some folks still don't understand. MOO.
 
We're planning a trip. I know it sounds crazy. Public restrooms are the big issue, but I know it's highly unlikely to get CoVid while wearing a mask and goggles and spending less than 5 minutes in a place.

Then, we'll stay at an old school motel, that has separate ventilation for each room (we'll disinfect the ventilation equipment, plus we're bringing our own). The grounds are spacious, with trailheads immediately adjacent. Motel has CoVid measures in place - everyone is masked.

We'll disinfect the room, leave for a while, and then feel safe enough. I think. We may change our minds last minute if rates go up at our destination. It'll be a car trip, no public transport. We will need to gas up once in each direction. I've researched gas stations that have been reviewed by hundreds on Google - and am choosing the ones rated highest for cleanliness.

Half a mile away from the motel, away from any other civilization, is a lovely restaurant with widely spaced tables and it allows dogs - they even bring the dogs water bowls and treats. We will wear our masks when interacting with the server in any way.

But, it's still a month away and a lot can happen in a month...we are hoping to see a forest, feel some cool, less smoke-filled air...it's both hot and smokey where we are and very few places locally we'd feel safe dining out.

I just made a trip. I live in rural California and I needed to go to Santa Clara County, where my mom lives in a memory care facility and where we have a storage unit for her things.

I received a notice at the beginning of September that the storage facility was about to undertake renovations and everyone had until the end of the month to vacate their units. I thought the timing was crazy given not only COVID but the fires which were creating horrible air quality in the Bay Area as well as all over the state.

I pondered abandoning the few items left in her unit, but I wasn't 100% sure that nothing important was there. Plus I hadn't visited mom since LAST autumn.

So I went. It's an 8-hour drive for me.

I get fuel at a membership-only cardlock program, so I know just where the stations are along the way, and I use a disposable glove to touch the keypads and the pump handle and lever. One of the fueling stations has a restroom I used, but I would have used a highway rest area restroom if needed. That wouldn't worry me much because of hand-washing, plus I carry hand sanitizer as well as clorox wipes. I also used a public restroom at a community park.

I stayed at a motel just at the edge of the Bay Area, in a town that is a bit off the busy freeways (Martinez for those of you familiar). I have friends who live there, who had offered me to stay with them, but I opted for the motel, using them as my emergency backup in case the motel didn't feel safe. I didn't feel too uncomfortable at the motel. I wiped down a few surfaces and contact spots when I arrived, and didn't let housekeeping in (I was there two nights).

The A/C was direct to the outside, which I was glad for, and hadn't even thought about when making my plans. I almost opted for a fancy hotel close to my destination, since they are currently offering affordable rates, but abandoned that idea due to travel logistics. I probably would have been in a ducted AC situation there, so I'm thankful I didn't go there.

I stayed the night in the motel, then in the morning I drove an hour or so into Santa Clara County, did my storage cleanout (which required a trip into Home Depot for a wrench when I realized I needed to take a table apart to make it fit in the vehicle -- kicked myself for not bringing more tools!), got lunch at a bagel place and ate in my car (I brought lots of food, not knowing what I would find open nor how comfortable I would be -- again, I found that with masks and avoiding busy places, I felt ok).

Then I was able to have a "window visit" with my mom -- that was nice! I stood outside the window, she was seated inside, we chatted and I was able to show her photos on the ipad.

Then I headed back up to Martinez, spent the second night (making a microwave meal in my motel room) and drove home the next day.

I'm still deciding how much I need to "quarantine" myself now, just in case. I'll skip this morning's farmer's market, where I would usually shop, but I do have to go to work on Tuesday. I asked my boss in advance if she wanted me to avoid work after my trip, or to get tested, but she said that wasn't necessary.

My community is in general very defiant and noncompliant, sadly. But we are also very naturally socially distanced, being a low density rural community with no long lines at the grocery store, etc. So we have only a few cases so far. Those of us who do take it seriously can easily avoid the occasional crowds by doing things like grocery shopping at 8am instead of in the afternoon.

I saw a funny sign yesterday, along the lines of "We can't survive on 1/3 capacity, so unless you can drink 3 beers instead of one, please go somewhere else".
(It was humour-based, I just can't recall the exact wording.)

Years ago I passed a diner in a remote area, miles away from anywhere. Their marquis sign said "Eat Here Or We Both Starve"
 
I have been livid since early morning. A FB post casually asked if you had unlimited $, where would you go. I usually don't answer such things, but today I posted I would not go anywhere, would not fly, would not stay in a hotel or take a group tour. Well, a return post laughed and told me I needed to get out and that it was safe.

Well, little does this person know I have bicycled 6100 miles in a year (not this year), ridden self-contained solo half-way across the US, hiked the West Coast Trail, one of the hardest in North America, and hiked part of the Appalachian Trail. I have also canoe raced and kayaked. I have visited every state and have biked in 13 countries. AND, I need to get out???

And, it's safe? Minnesota is reachinging 2000 deaths. On Sep 17 there were 909 new cases. It's safe? Where do these people get information?

I am still bicycling - around my state in areas of less traffic, not in cities. I am hiking. BUT, no, I will not fly, will not stay in a hotel, will not eat inside at a restaurant, will not go to a theater or church or a party until I am certain it is safe, which I feel it is not right now.

Damn Kudos upon Kudos for you! Stand your ground.
 
Please forgive me for belaboring this point so that the U.S. Covid-19 death toll is clearly seen as enormous. In connection to my post (#78) about the enormous loss of life in the U.S. due to Covid-19....Just to illustrate how “enormous” a loss can be if it occurs in a short period of time, three communities in my area here in Southern Oregon with a population of approximately 35,000 lost almost 2500 residences (counted so far) in one day on Sept. 15 during a fast-moving fire. Had those losses occurred gradually over a span of 10 years, they probably would barely have been noticed. But in one day? About 15 of my friends/acquaintances lost their homes in one day. That’s not an “enormous” number in my large circle of friends and acquaintances, but in one day, yes it is, both numerically and emotionally.
JMO

Quoting:

The count of homes lost to the Almeda fire has skyrocketed to at least 2,357 residential structures destroyed and 57 damaged after an urban search-and-rescue team provided more detailed on-the-ground information about the destruction.
********
The Phoenix-Talent School District has estimated 50% of its students’ families have lost their homes.

More than 2,350 residential structures destroyed by Almeda fire in Jackson County

Godspeed to your and yours @Lilibet
 
I think the US did limit travel IIRC. None of us knew it was in Europe so early though. When did Australia ban European flights?

US limited some foreign travel, yes. But @SouthAussie is referring to travel within the nation - which was so crucial in bringing Australia's rates so low.

We did not do that. Our international airports remained opened and while in theory travel to and from some nations was banned, planes still flew and the travel continued, people just said it was "essential" (without any documentation effort - unlike Australia or many other nations).

Remember those hundreds (thousands?) of Americans who lied to Canadian border authorities and said their travel was "through" Canada to Alaska for essential reasons? We did nothing to deter that. We still don't. However, Canada is doing a good job keeping us where we belong.

All 330,000,000 Americans can travel to almost any state they want - early on, only Hawaii had real quarantines and now only a few states (not the US as a whole) are barring travel to their state or requiring quarantine when people come back.

A US-wide travel ban would have been essential to bringing the deaths down.
 
I think the NYC outbreak started from European travellers.

The virus from China was first found in a man in Washington state who had been in Wuhan.

I recall because the US had two covid strains going at the same time.


A new study has found evidence that the first COVID-19 cases in New York City originated in Europe and occurred as early as February.
New York coronavirus outbreak originated in Europe, new study finds

Health officials in Washington state report the first case in the US. The man is in his 30s and is in good condition at a hospital in Everett, Washington, after returning to the area last week from China. He was believed to have travelled to the Wuhan area.
Coronavirus timeline: from Wuhan to Washington state


Just yesterday I read a study that said the man who brought CoVid to Washington State, and who was believed to be the first case, actually didn't spread it. The genetic history of subsequent strains didn't go back to him. Apparently he had self isolated immediately upon arriving in Washington.

Here's the news article. I'll see if I can track down the actual study.

How Coronavirus Took Hold in North America and Europe

And here's the actual study in the Journal, Science.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and North America
 
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I think the NYC outbreak started from European travellers.

The virus from China was first found in a man in Washington state who had been in Wuhan.

I recall because the US had two covid strains going at the same time.


A new study has found evidence that the first COVID-19 cases in New York City originated in Europe and occurred as early as February.
New York coronavirus outbreak originated in Europe, new study finds

Health officials in Washington state report the first case in the US. The man is in his 30s and is in good condition at a hospital in Everett, Washington, after returning to the area last week from China. He was believed to have travelled to the Wuhan area.
Coronavirus timeline: from Wuhan to Washington state

Yes - at some point early on, CoVid mutated and that mutation was used to track how it spread (the European form is more contagious than the first, Wuhan form). Both strains are in the US, the people who are reinfected have had both strains (this is a tiny number of people). At any rate, it was the European strain that got to the East Coast and simmered for at least a month before we caught onto it.

Asia still has mostly just the first strain. Italy and the French Alps may have received that second strain early on.

Clearly, a few people have immune systems that don't recognize the second strain as the same strain (but it's a vanishingly small number).
 
I just made a trip. I live in rural California and I needed to go to Santa Clara County, where my mom lives in a memory care facility and where we have a storage unit for her things.

I received a notice at the beginning of September that the storage facility was about to undertake renovations and everyone had until the end of the month to vacate their units. I thought the timing was crazy given not only COVID but the fires which were creating horrible air quality in the Bay Area as well as all over the state.

I pondered abandoning the few items left in her unit, but I wasn't 100% sure that nothing important was there. Plus I hadn't visited mom since LAST autumn.

So I went. It's an 8-hour drive for me.

I get fuel at a membership-only cardlock program, so I know just where the stations are along the way, and I use a disposable glove to touch the keypads and the pump handle and lever. One of the fueling stations has a restroom I used, but I would have used a highway rest area restroom if needed. That wouldn't worry me much because of hand-washing, plus I carry hand sanitizer as well as clorox wipes. I also used a public restroom at a community park.

I stayed at a motel just at the edge of the Bay Area, in a town that is a bit off the busy freeways (Martinez for those of you familiar). I have friends who live there, who had offered me to stay with them, but I opted for the motel, using them as my emergency backup in case the motel didn't feel safe. I didn't feel too uncomfortable at the motel. I wiped down a few surfaces and contact spots when I arrived, and didn't let housekeeping in (I was there two nights).

The A/C was direct to the outside, which I was glad for, and hadn't even thought about when making my plans. I almost opted for a fancy hotel close to my destination, since they are currently offering affordable rates, but abandoned that idea due to travel logistics. I probably would have been in a ducted AC situation there, so I'm thankful I didn't go there.

I stayed the night in the motel, then in the morning I drove an hour or so into Santa Clara County, did my storage cleanout (which required a trip into Home Depot for a wrench when I realized I needed to take a table apart to make it fit in the vehicle -- kicked myself for not bringing more tools!), got lunch at a bagel place and ate in my car (I brought lots of food, not knowing what I would find open nor how comfortable I would be -- again, I found that with masks and avoiding busy places, I felt ok).

Then I was able to have a "window visit" with my mom -- that was nice! I stood outside the window, she was seated inside, we chatted and I was able to show her photos on the ipad.

Then I headed back up to Martinez, spent the second night (making a microwave meal in my motel room) and drove home the next day.

I'm still deciding how much I need to "quarantine" myself now, just in case. I'll skip this morning's farmer's market, where I would usually shop, but I do have to go to work on Tuesday. I asked my boss in advance if she wanted me to avoid work after my trip, or to get tested, but she said that wasn't necessary.

My community is in general very defiant and noncompliant, sadly. But we are also very naturally socially distanced, being a low density rural community with no long lines at the grocery store, etc. So we have only a few cases so far. Those of us who do take it seriously can easily avoid the occasional crowds by doing things like grocery shopping at 8am instead of in the afternoon.



Years ago I passed a diner in a remote area, miles away from anywhere. Their marquis sign said "Eat Here Or We Both Starve"

Thank you so much for all the details. After I posted our plans, we ended up second-guessing ourselves (have not canceled, but we really hadn't thought about having to self-quarantine upon return - or the fact that our destination has more active cases per capita than we do here in our city).

We are having to re-examine why would do this. You had a very good reason - so glad you got to see your mom and it's awesome that she's in such a great area for care homes.

Our drive would be about 9 hours, plus stops. With two dogs. Our neighborhood is pretty good about mask wearing and we feel very safe here. The lure of new scenery though...
 
Please forgive me for belaboring this point so that the U.S. Covid-19 death toll is clearly seen as enormous. In connection to my post (#78) about the enormous loss of life in the U.S. due to Covid-19....Just to illustrate how “enormous” a loss can be if it occurs in a short period of time, three communities in my area here in Southern Oregon with a population of approximately 35,000 lost almost 2500 residences (counted so far) in one day on Sept. 15 during a fast-moving fire. Had those losses occurred gradually over a span of 10 years, they probably would barely have been noticed. But in one day? About 15 of my friends/acquaintances lost their homes in one day. That’s not an “enormous” number in my large circle of friends and acquaintances, but in one day, yes it is, both numerically and emotionally.
JMO

Quoting:

The count of homes lost to the Almeda fire has skyrocketed to at least 2,357 residential structures destroyed and 57 damaged after an urban search-and-rescue team provided more detailed on-the-ground information about the destruction.
********
The Phoenix-Talent School District has estimated 50% of its students’ families have lost their homes.

More than 2,350 residential structures destroyed by Almeda fire in Jackson County

I don't think you're belaboring the point at all. To me, it's almost unfathomable that over 200,000 have died (known deaths) and anyone would not think it "enormous" but it's clear that people really vary in their subjective assessment of what's "a really big number." Personally, I think there are objective moral principles by which we view deaths of innocent humans to be wrong - but some will argue it's merely a matter of opinion.

I don't do that arguing any more, I just give side-eye. If someone wants to discount 200,000 deaths while worrying about 1 murder, I can't change their mind by arguing.

I can't help pondering this position and asking questions, though.

WS is founded on deep concern for the value of human lives. That's the reason we try to keep cases in the news, encourage investigation of crimes, and truly focus on crimes against innocent persons. We rejoice when a missing person is found safe. We are outraged when someone is murdered and most of us feel genuine sadness when someone dies lost in the wilderness.

It's the same impulse when it comes to disease victims. Cancer? Most of us have donated, taken others' suffering seriously. and lended ears and sympathy (and driven people to treatments and much else).

Murder and non-negligent manslaughter account for 14,000-17,000 deaths per year in the US. If a WSer came on a thread and said, "Why do you guys think it matters so much?" well, I think it would not go over well.

Why is CoVid so different?

If a new cancer cause popped up and 200,000 died of it in 6 months...would people really be weighing whether it was a lot of deaths. Would half of people just not care? I'm afraid of the answers sometimes. If there was a way to avoid this cancer, wouldn't people do it? Maybe not. This whole CoVid thing is making many people reframe how they view the American health system and American life expectancy.

Live hard (aka "be brave") and do not worry about health consequences. It actually takes more courage to change one's life in order to help solve a larger problem, IMO. If I were to write an ethnography of American Life in the early 21st century, I would be able to provide a better explanation for the "fail" videos we see on Youtube (and the bizarre "accidents" and "stunts" that end people's lives).

US is projected to be at almost 400,000 deaths by January 1, 2021. I am hoping fervently this won't be the case.
 
@10ofRods

One of your posts mentions wearing goggles on vacation. I'm curious about what kind of goggles you wear and do you wear them all the time like going to the store?

Also what do you think about goggles as a way to help protect people from the virus?

DH and I both have ski goggles (Oakley). Mine were from eBay. Yes, any time we go to the doctor or the store, we wear them. Mine have very light yellow lenses, so I can see perfectly well indoors - his are mirrored but he says he can still see fine inside the store (he looks like the Terminator, it's hilarious). People don't bat an eye.

I had to have blood drawn - wore them. Will be going soon for bone density analysis - will wear them. Obviously, we don't wear them on walks or in the park etc (although right now, with all the smoke in the air here, I should have worn them on a recent hike).

They're really comfortable and I forget I have them on.
 
DH and I both have ski goggles (Oakley). Mine were from eBay. Yes, any time we go to the doctor or the store, we wear them. Mine have very light yellow lenses, so I can see perfectly well indoors - his are mirrored but he says he can still see fine inside the store (he looks like the Terminator, it's hilarious). People don't bat an eye.

I had to have blood drawn - wore them. Will be going soon for bone density analysis - will wear them. Obviously, we don't wear them on walks or in the park etc (although right now, with all the smoke in the air here, I should have worn them on a recent hike).

They're really comfortable and I forget I have them on.
Thankx for your reply.

Can I get your opinion on the benefit of the goggles? I don't need links, just your own opinion is fine.

I am trying to decide if it would be good to get a pair and am wondering why you wear them? Like how much protection from the virus do you think they give? Do you think the virus goes in peoples' eyes?

I like reading your opinions and wondering if eye cover would be good to have, especially with flu season coming up ..... and going into stores and places in the winter when things are more closed up, no doors or windows opened etc...

I live in a fairly cold place where places get shut up, storm windows put in, starting in the fall until sometime in spring. Now have to deal with both covid and the flu this winter. Grrr....

Thankx so much!
 
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Just yesterday I read a study that said the man who brought CoVid to Washington State, and who was believed to be the first case, actually didn't spread it. The genetic history of subsequent strains didn't go back to him. Apparently he had self isolated immediately upon arriving in Washington.

Here's the news article. I'll see if I can track down the actual study.

How Coronavirus Took Hold in North America and Europe

And here's the actual study in the Journal, Science.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and North America

This is very interesting! Thanks for posting.

The article has a nice graphic that shows how the virus traveled to Europe and to the United States. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/early/2020/09/11/science.abc8169/F6.large.jpg
 

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I don't think you're belaboring the point at all. To me, it's almost unfathomable that over 200,000 have died (known deaths) and anyone would not think it "enormous" but it's clear that people really vary in their subjective assessment of what's "a really big number." Personally, I think there are objective moral principles by which we view deaths of innocent humans to be wrong - but some will argue it's merely a matter of opinion.

I don't do that arguing any more, I just give side-eye. If someone wants to discount 200,000 deaths while worrying about 1 murder, I can't change their mind by arguing.

I can't help pondering this position and asking questions, though.

WS is founded on deep concern for the value of human lives. That's the reason we try to keep cases in the news, encourage investigation of crimes, and truly focus on crimes against innocent persons. We rejoice when a missing person is found safe. We are outraged when someone is murdered and most of us feel genuine sadness when someone dies lost in the wilderness.

It's the same impulse when it comes to disease victims. Cancer? Most of us have donated, taken others' suffering seriously. and lended ears and sympathy (and driven people to treatments and much else).

Murder and non-negligent manslaughter account for 14,000-17,000 deaths per year in the US. If a WSer came on a thread and said, "Why do you guys think it matters so much?" well, I think it would not go over well.

Why is CoVid so different?

If a new cancer cause popped up and 200,000 died of it in 6 months...would people really be weighing whether it was a lot of deaths. Would half of people just not care? I'm afraid of the answers sometimes. If there was a way to avoid this cancer, wouldn't people do it? Maybe not. This whole CoVid thing is making many people reframe how they view the American health system and American life expectancy.

Live hard (aka "be brave") and do not worry about health consequences. It actually takes more courage to change one's life in order to help solve a larger problem, IMO. If I were to write an ethnography of American Life in the early 21st century, I would be able to provide a better explanation for the "fail" videos we see on Youtube (and the bizarre "accidents" and "stunts" that end people's lives).

US is projected to be at almost 400,000 deaths by January 1, 2021. I am hoping fervently this won't be the case.

Thank you so much @10ofRods for your thoughtful and thought-provoking post showing you understand why only viewing our 200,000 deaths in comparison to our population can be viewed by some of us as minimizing the impact of these losses...especially when we have been asked not to minimize the seriousness of this disease.
Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #79

Your comparison to how we view victims here on WS really makes this point clear.
JMO
 
Just yesterday I read a study that said the man who brought CoVid to Washington State, and who was believed to be the first case, actually didn't spread it. The genetic history of subsequent strains didn't go back to him. Apparently he had self isolated immediately upon arriving in Washington.

Here's the news article. I'll see if I can track down the actual study.

How Coronavirus Took Hold in North America and Europe

And here's the actual study in the Journal, Science.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and North America

That is really interesting. It makes sense, because Washington state did not explode with cases from this oh-so-contagious virus in a similar way to NYC.

Our first case - a visitor from Wuhan in January - was not a spreader either. Isolated quickly.
But visitors from Europe and the US who attended weddings here were. That's when we closed our international borders.

I think weddings were the biggest source of virus spread here, back in March.

IMO

The patient, a man from Wuhan, flew to Melbourne from Guandong on 19 January.
“Victoria has followed its strict protocols, including isolating the affected person. I understand the patient has pneumonia and is in a stable condition.”
First confirmed case of novel coronavirus in Australia
 
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