Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #83

[dixiegirl1035]

As to inherent immunity to HIV, the gene that provides the immunity is extant in European and Eurasian/Asian populations (higher percentage of Europeans have it, now believed to have come into our genome from Neanderthals).

Now, geneticists are saying that very same gene is making people more susceptible to the cytokine storm that is severe CoVid.

The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neanderthals

Thanks!

It's so interesting that so many groups are trying to connect their backgrounds to contribute to learning, and that scientists from the Neanderthal group who did the genome contributed to this on COVID.

I've read this, (read about back in July) followed the basis for such yet think the title is so misleading.

For those that may not know, there were 3 femur bones found in a cave in the Altai mountains of Croatia @Niner /Siberia from around 50,000 to 100,000 years ago. And then some other ones thrown in from Spain, Russia and Germany. In 2013 a genome project was done of the bones was done. (Yeah for us WS folks who want to know how long DNA lasts ?!)

At this time, it hasn't been PROVEN at all any gene that makes folks more susceptible (unless we are talking about proteins for vitamin D which have promise)... but more to follow and glad these groups are using COVID to have the opportunity for recognition for their work as to potential contributions to science in general.


Neanderthal genome project - Wikipedia
So having a result of such from above... MOO.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Broadway shutdown that started in March - extended another four months in NYC due to pandemic. (Was supposed to open in January)
Broadway Shutdown Extended Through May 30 | NBC New York

 

[mickey2942]

As to inherent immunity to HIV, the gene that provides the immunity is extant in European and Eurasian/Asian populations (higher percentage of Europeans have it, now believed to have come into our genome from Neanderthals).

Now, geneticists are saying that very same gene is making people more susceptible to the cytokine storm that is severe CoVid.

The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neanderthals

That may explain why Japan never had the significant problems with Covid. Even though their population is significantly older. However, there is also far less obesity in the Japanese population as well.
The puzzle of Japan's low virus death rate

 

[CharlestonGal]

Looks like the winter covid wave is starting to gain speed.

Ohio reports highest one-day tally of coronavirus cases

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Ohio reported a record high number of daily cases of the coronavirus on Friday as Republican Gov. Mike DeWine pleaded with residents to continue social distancing and mask wearing.

The 1,840 confirmed and probable cases tallied by the Department of Health is the most in a day since July. The daily number of cases is also well above the 21-day average of 1,119 cases.

 

[anneg]

ETA
Seems the link I posted doesn't work. For section on The Role of Host Immunity, scroll down until you pass the section on The Role of the Infectious Agent.

Emerging Pandemic Diseases: How We Got to COVID-19 - ScienceDirect

This is an excellent article by Drs. Morens and Fauci. (I'm not a scientist, so some of it is over my head...)

From the article:
Summary and Conclusions
SARS-CoV-2 is a deadly addition to the long list of microbial threats to the human species. It forces us to adapt, react, and reconsider the nature of our relationship to the natural world. Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases are epiphenomena of human existence and our interactions with each other, and with nature. As human societies grow in size and complexity, we create an endless variety of opportunities for genetically unstable infectious agents to emerge into the unfilled ecologic niches we continue to create. There is nothing new about this situation, except that we now live in a human-dominated world in which our increasingly extreme alterations of the environment induce increasingly extreme backlashes from nature.

Science will surely bring us many life-saving drugs, vaccines, and diagnostics; however, there is no reason to think that these alone can overcome the threat of ever more frequent and deadly emergences of infectious diseases. Evidence suggests that SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 are only the latest examples of a deadly barrage of coming coronavirus and other emergences. The COVID-19 pandemic is yet another reminder, added to the rapidly growing archive of historical reminders, that in a human-dominated world, in which our human activities represent aggressive, damaging, and unbalanced interactions with nature, we will increasingly provoke new disease emergences. We remain at risk for the foreseeable future. COVID-19 is among the most vivid wake-up calls in over a century. It should force us to begin to think in earnest and collectively about living in more thoughtful and creative harmony with nature, even as we plan for nature’s inevitable, and always unexpected, surprises.

Emerging Pandemic Diseases: How We Got to COVID-19 - ScienceDirect!

 

[nhmemorymaker]

You may have missed an earlier post of mine. Remdesivir is manufactured in California. And, yes, the US govt bought 80% of its existing stock, some time ago.

The same product, generically called Desrem, is now made in India. Gilead provided an Indian company called Mylan with a license to produce it. Mylan supplies Desrem to other countries.

Manufacturing is happening in both places. I don't believe there is a world shortage.

I have read that there is a hospital shortage in the US, as Remdesivir is allotted to the hospitals by the government. I posted an article way back in the threads where a doctor said that when they get low, they borrow from another hospital, and when their next allotment comes in they pay it back.

Remdesivir is way overpriced in the US. Desrem is hugely cheaper to buy.

Mylan launches Remdesivir’s generic version ‘Desrem’ in India for Covid-19 patients
Gilead announces long-awaited price for Covid-19 drug remdesivir - STAT
Mylan prices its generic remdesivir in India at $64 per 100 mg vial

oh yessss... now I Remember the generic product. Thanks for the re-wind re-mind.

This article in the Guardian points out that Remdesivir is under patent, however.

The US in June bought up virtually all stocks for a three month period, but even US hospitals say they cannot get enough to treat their patients. In Europe, where the European commission buys on behalf of member states, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands as well as the UK are short of supplies.

Doctors in the UK have been instructed to treat only those patients who can most benefit from the drug, in order to conserve its limited stocks, which were bought earlier in the year with trials in mind.

Global shortage of key Covid drug leads to NHS rationing

 

[BUF]

Few masks seen as crowds gather for Trump White House event – live

 

[anneg]

The University of Washington Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness has a COVID-19 Literature Report that is sent out weekdays via email. I recently subscribed to the reports and think they are very useful to anyone trying to keep up with the literature. There are also a few in-depth reports accessible from the link below.

The COVID-19 Lit Rep is currently prepared by the UW Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness and the START Center in collaboration with and on behalf of the Washington State Department of Health. The Lit Rep was originally developed and disseminated by the WA DOH COVID-19 Incident Management Team to support evidence-based decision making throughout the region.

Latest Reports

ETA: @10of rods -- do you know about this great resource?

 

[CharlestonGal]

Few masks seen as crowds gather for Trump White House event – live

Smh. I will never understand people who refuse to protect themselves or others.

 

[CharlestonGal]

The University of Washington Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness has a COVID-19 Literature Report that is sent out weekdays via email. I recently subscribed to the reports and think they are very useful to anyone trying to keep up with the literature. There are also a few in-depth reports accessible from the link below.

The COVID-19 Lit Rep is currently prepared by the UW Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness and the START Center in collaboration with and on behalf of the Washington State Department of Health. The Lit Rep was originally developed and disseminated by the WA DOH COVID-19 Incident Management Team to support evidence-based decision making throughout the region.

Latest Reports

Thank you! From your link:

Approximately three-quarters of people who required hospitalization for COVID-19 reported at least one lingering symptom or effect 3 months after their symptoms began. The most frequently reported effects were reduced quality of life (51%) and shortness of breath (50%).

 

[mickey2942]

Smh. I will never understand people who refuse to protect themselves or others.

Pandemic Deniers: What’s With Them?

This is a short, opinion piece. But there really is something dogmatic about their belief system. They won't change, even when confronted with empirical evidence.

 

[Cool Cats]

Former NJ Gov. Chris Christie released from hospital a week after testing positive for COVID-19

"I am happy to let you know that this morning I was released from Morristown Medical Center," he said in a tweet. "I want to thank the extraordinary doctors & nurses who cared for me for the last week. Thanks to my family & friends for their prayers. I will have more to say about all of this next week."

 

[CharlestonGal]

Former NJ Gov. Chris Christie released from hospital a week after testing positive for COVID-19

"I am happy to let you know that this morning I was released from Morristown Medical Center," he said in a tweet. "I want to thank the extraordinary doctors & nurses who cared for me for the last week. Thanks to my family & friends for their prayers. I will have more to say about all of this next week."

That is really great news for him and his family. It's his personal business, of course, but I'd like to know what his treatment regimen was. I have some family members who suffer from morbid obesity as well, and they are convinced they will die within a week of getting covid. Mr. Christie is a great example that this is not necessarily so.

 

[CharlestonGal]

Coronavirus model projects 395,000 total US deaths by Feb. 1

The latest forecast of an influential coronavirus model projects 394,693 total US coronavirus deaths by Feb. 1.

That’s about 181,000 additional lives lost beyond the current US death toll of 213,860, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine, projects that daily deaths in the US will peak at about 2,300 in mid-January. For comparison, Friday's US death toll was 990, according to Johns Hopkins University.

The new projections are based off of current conditions. If US social distancing mandates are eased, the model projects 502,852 coronavirus-related deaths by Feb. 1.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

Coronavirus model projects 395,000 total US deaths by Feb. 1

The latest forecast of an influential coronavirus model projects 394,693 total US coronavirus deaths by Feb. 1.

That’s about 181,000 additional lives lost beyond the current US death toll of 213,860, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine, projects that daily deaths in the US will peak at about 2,300 in mid-January. For comparison, Friday's US death toll was 990, according to Johns Hopkins University.

The new projections are based off of current conditions. If US social distancing mandates are eased, the model projects 502,852 coronavirus-related deaths by Feb. 1.

I remember the "worst case scenario" prediction of 200,000 by Oct/Nov, and nobody but nobody imagined that would actually happen. Hopefully it doesn't get anywhere near the half million mark

EDIT
"In March, [Trump] said if deaths were between 100,000 and 200,000, the country would have done a "very good job".
US coronavirus death toll passes 200,000

 

[10ofRods]

Pandemic Deniers: What’s With Them?

This is a short, opinion piece. But there really is something dogmatic about their belief system. They won't change, even when confronted with empirical evidence.

This is a world-wide phenomenon, not just with CoVid but with any kind of rigid belief system. Lots of terminology for this kind of thing in anthropology, but basically these belief systems are "non-inclusive" (meaning you are either with them or you are against them and you can't join easily). They are "corporate" in their beliefs (high degree of intra-group consistency in beliefs - everyone believes the same thing, so that everyone they run into reaffirms their beliefs).

You must accept their basic premises and study on them a long time (they will tell you) before you can truly understand them. In this case, many core pandemic/CoVid denier beliefs have to do with conspiracy theories, the idea that there's a "deep state" and a giant conspiracy against the Bible, God and Jesus's second coming.

It's prudent to be wary of belief systems that basically tell all outsiders "You simply cannot understand the Truth unless you join us" and joining means "unquestioning acceptance of everything in the belief system." A person has to humble themselves before this new belief system, take it on faith, accept it completely and seek help if they ever have doubts (by calling upon True Believers). Willa Appel has written an entire book on this. If you're raised in it, it's hard to get out.

Tons of these kinds of belief systems in the world, through all time. If you ask hard questions of them (or, even, what would appear to be easy questions to a non-believer), they will tell you that you need to study more and learn more and believe harder. That it will take you "years and years" to really get it - that you need to allow them to just tell you the answers in the meantime but in future, it will all "come together" and you too will believe as they do.

Empirical evidence never enters in.

 

[CharlestonGal]

The 'evidence is clear': Hydroxychloroquine doesn't help Covid-19 patients

Researchers at the University of Oxford in the U.K. have concluded that hydroxychloroquine does nothing to prevent Covid-19-related deaths.

The research is a continuation of a major clinical trial that found that the drug — which has previously been touted by President Donald Trump and White House trade adviser Peter Navarro — had no clinical benefit.

The study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, examined the outcomes of 1,561 patients hospitalized with Covid-19 who received hydroxychloroquine and compared them to 3,155 patients who served as a control group.

Within a month, about a quarter of the patients in each group had died.

 

[10ofRods]

Coronavirus model projects 395,000 total US deaths by Feb. 1

The latest forecast of an influential coronavirus model projects 394,693 total US coronavirus deaths by Feb. 1.

That’s about 181,000 additional lives lost beyond the current US death toll of 213,860, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine, projects that daily deaths in the US will peak at about 2,300 in mid-January. For comparison, Friday's US death toll was 990, according to Johns Hopkins University.

The new projections are based off of current conditions. If US social distancing mandates are eased, the model projects 502,852 coronavirus-related deaths by Feb. 1.

I'm so glad you posted this. It looks like the entire Northern Hemisphere is in for a rough winter and it's concerning that "community spread" (untraced) is a main driver here (unlike care homes in the first phase). Since we don't do much contact tracing in the US, we have to rely on other nations' work to try and figure it out. And I'm not sure anyone is clear on why the big surge this week, in so many places.

We do have a sense of how the demographics are going to work.

The data have changed a bit since July, but the picture is clear. Note how at around age 50, the death rate rises to near parity with the demographic. Since very old people were a huge percentage of deaths, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that 50-59 year olds are 12.5% of the population and 10% of the deaths.

The CDC uses different age brackets but the current data is here:

COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics

Deaths among the very elderly have dropped to 31% of the total while in other age groups (starting with the group aged ~45-55 have gone up proportionately).

55-64 age bracket (CDC) is now 22% of total deaths from CoVid.

45-54 is about 10% of the total.

IOW, we can look at those IMHE predictions closely and ponder what's about to happen. Since overall death rates have dropped (due to treatment and demographics), if that many deaths are predicted, that's a ton of people getting CoVid...

 

[CharlestonGal]

Detailed look from the Wall Street Journal at how CoVid spread across the US.

Coronavirus Hit the U.S. Long Before We Knew
Months before travel bans and lockdowns, Americans were transmitting the virus across the country

 

[CharlestonGal]

I'm so glad you posted this. It looks like the entire Northern Hemisphere is in for a rough winter and it's concerning that "community spread" (untraced) is a main driver here (unlike care homes in the first phase). Since we don't do much contact tracing in the US, we have to rely on other nations' work to try and figure it out. And I'm not sure anyone is clear on why the big surge this week, in so many places.

We do have a sense of how the demographics are going to work.

The data have changed a bit since July, but the picture is clear. Note how at around age 50, the death rate rises to near parity with the demographic. Since very old people were a huge percentage of deaths, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that 50-59 year olds are 12.5% of the population and 10% of the deaths.

The CDC uses different age brackets but the current data is here:

COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics

Deaths among the very elderly have dropped to 31% of the total while in other age groups (starting with the group aged ~45-55 have gone up proportionately).

55-64 age bracket (CDC) is now 22% of total deaths from CoVid.

45-54 is about 10% of the total.

IOW, we can look at those IMHE predictions closely and ponder what's about to happen. Since overall death rates have dropped (due to treatment and demographics), if that many deaths are predicted, that's a ton of people getting CoVid...

Yeah. With a ton of people moving around and failing to take even simple precautions, that is certainly a ton of people who will be getting, and spreading, CoVid these next few winter months. Mid to late Dec/Jan is going to be epic with all the Christmas shopping and gatherings. There will also be a pretty good spike 1-2 weeks after Thanksgiving weekend as well. Our healthcare workers are in for a bad ride during the holiday season.