Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #83

[mickey2942]

The 'evidence is clear': Hydroxychloroquine doesn't help Covid-19 patients

Researchers at the University of Oxford in the U.K. have concluded that hydroxychloroquine does nothing to prevent Covid-19-related deaths.

The research is a continuation of a major clinical trial that found that the drug — which has previously been touted by President Donald Trump and White House trade adviser Peter Navarro — had no clinical benefit.

The study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, examined the outcomes of 1,561 patients hospitalized with Covid-19 who received hydroxychloroquine and compared them to 3,155 patients who served as a control group.

Within a month, about a quarter of the patients in each group had died.

My only question here, is was the intervention provided too late for any noticeable improvement? After all, President Trump barely had any symptoms when he was hospitalized and pumped full of the "magic cocktail".

After all, if you look at my previous posts and links, most patients diagnosed were not given any medication, intervention or treatment at all. Just go home. So, by the time they went to the hospital, the virus had already taken hold.

So, just wondering about the hypothesis here...and methodology of this study. They had not included any recent diagnosed patients. And started intervention at the time of diagnosis. That would be a far more interesting analysis.

 

[CharlestonGal]

My only question here, is was the intervention provided too late for any noticeable improvement? After all, President Trump barely had any symptoms when he was hospitalized and pumped full of the "magic cocktail".

After all, if you look at my previous posts and links, most patients diagnosed were not given any medication, intervention or treatment at all. Just go home. So, by the time they went to the hospital, the virus had already taken hold.

So, just wondering about the hypothesis here...and methodology of this study. They had not included any recent diagnosed patients. And started intervention at the time of diagnosis. That would be a far more interesting analysis.

Pretty sure hydroxy was ruled out in early/mild cases due to substantial risk if given to millions of people. It was reserved for seriously ill hospitalized patients as the possible benefit in those cases was worth the risk.

 

[anneg]

Coronavirus model projects 395,000 total US deaths by Feb. 1

The latest forecast of an influential coronavirus model projects 394,693 total US coronavirus deaths by Feb. 1.

That’s about 181,000 additional lives lost beyond the current US death toll of 213,860, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine, projects that daily deaths in the US will peak at about 2,300 in mid-January. For comparison, Friday's US death toll was 990, according to Johns Hopkins University.

The new projections are based off of current conditions. If US social distancing mandates are eased, the model projects 502,852 coronavirus-related deaths by Feb. 1.

Post liked but not the prospect of so many more deaths over the winter. Do we (the U.S.) have the will to take the needed actions to prevent this? I wish I could be optimistic.

 

[anneg]

This is a world-wide phenomenon, not just with CoVid but with any kind of rigid belief system. Lots of terminology for this kind of thing in anthropology, but basically these belief systems are "non-inclusive" (meaning you are either with them or you are against them and you can't join easily). They are "corporate" in their beliefs (high degree of intra-group consistency in beliefs - everyone believes the same thing, so that everyone they run into reaffirms their beliefs).

You must accept their basic premises and study on them a long time (they will tell you) before you can truly understand them. In this case, many core pandemic/CoVid denier beliefs have to do with conspiracy theories, the idea that there's a "deep state" and a giant conspiracy against the Bible, God and Jesus's second coming.

It's prudent to be wary of belief systems that basically tell all outsiders "You simply cannot understand the Truth unless you join us" and joining means "unquestioning acceptance of everything in the belief system." A person has to humble themselves before this new belief system, take it on faith, accept it completely and seek help if they ever have doubts (by calling upon True Believers). Willa Appel has written an entire book on this. If you're raised in it, it's hard to get out.

Tons of these kinds of belief systems in the world, through all time. If you ask hard questions of them (or, even, what would appear to be easy questions to a non-believer), they will tell you that you need to study more and learn more and believe harder. That it will take you "years and years" to really get it - that you need to allow them to just tell you the answers in the meantime but in future, it will all "come together" and you too will believe as they do.

Empirical evidence never enters in.

Fascinating.

 

[Lilibet]

Dr. Seheult has given quite a few videos on such research to support having cheap (less than $3 each.. down to $1 each) in home tests to put in the mix with PCR.

Here are short sweet ones with Dr. Mina who has been covering the tests on Medcram..
Paper Strip Tests for COVID-19: Should We Wait Until They Rival PCR Tests? Dr. Mina Responds

Self Testing for COVID 19 with Rapid Antigen Tests: Dr. Mina Q/A

Thanks @dixiegirl1035.

 

[CharlestonGal]

Post liked but not the prospect of so many more deaths over the winter. Do we (the U.S.) have the will to take the needed actions to prevent this? I wish I could be optimistic.

That's a hard question to answer. I think if we had a huge leadership/national anti-covid campaign it might go a long way in mitigating some of this coming winter disaster. I don't see anything like that in the works, so I'm just bracing for the worst. The free antibody cocktails will likely help a bit if we can get them soon enough for the general population.

Other than that, I'm out of ideas. Oh, and add millions of flu patients as the cherry on top of this disaster. That keeps me up at night.

 

[RANCH]

Post liked but not the prospect of so many more deaths over the winter. Do we (the U.S.) have the will to take the needed actions to prevent this? I wish I could be optimistic.

It's not just the United States that is facing many more deaths. Europe is having problems too. Covid fatigue is affecting them as well.

"Fatigue is absolutely natural. It's to be expected where we have these prolonged crises or emergencies," said the WHO's Butler.

The WHO this week put out new advice for governments to consider more social, psychological and emotional factors when deciding on lockdowns, closures or other restrictions — a nod to some in the field who say the mental health toll of lockdowns is worse than the virus itself.

That data, Butler said, "is going to become more important because we have to understand what restrictions we can put in place that will be sustained and adhered to, and acceptable to our populations."

Lesson not learned: Europe unprepared as 2nd virus wave hits

 

[anneg]

It's not just the United States that is facing many more deaths. Europe is having problems too. Covid fatigue is affecting them as well.



Lesson not learned: Europe unprepared as 2nd virus wave hits

MOO
Yes, but I'm talking about my country. Our government leaders need to step up and meet the challenges of mitigating the effects of the virus. If they don't do what needs to be done, it's going to be the winter from hell. IMO MOO

 

[anneg]

That's a hard question to answer. I think if we had a huge leadership/national anti-covid campaign it might go a long way in mitigating some of this coming winter disaster. I don't see anything like that in the works, so I'm just bracing for the worst. The free antibody cocktails will likely help a bit if we can get them soon enough for the general population.

Other than that, I'm out of ideas. Oh, and add millions of flu patients as the cherry on top of this disaster. That keeps me up at night.

BBM--very funny! IMO of course.

I do have some hope that with so many vulnerable folks (like DH and I, in our mid 70s) staying home this winter, the prevalence of flu and associated morbidity and mortality will be greatly reduced. We've discussed on this thread in relation to Australia, I believe.
MOO

 

[RANCH]

MOO
Yes, but I'm talking about my country. Our government leaders need to step up and meet the challenges of mitigating the effects of the virus. If they don't do what needs to be done, it's going to be the winter from hell. IMO MOO

That's fine. I'm just pointing out that many countries who have different leaders are having similar problems.

I think that it's food for thought. JMO

 

[10ofRods]

It's not just the United States that is facing many more deaths. Europe is having problems too. Covid fatigue is affecting them as well.



Lesson not learned: Europe unprepared as 2nd virus wave hits

CoVid fatigue is thought to be responsible for extreme loosening of restrictions back in late July and a subsequent bump up in European cases, particularly in France. Two weeks later, case rates climbed just a little at first (the usual story).

Various mitigation measures were asked of people, but they were not followed according to everything I've read. Many French people state that they think the rules went from strict to exceedingly loose too quickly, which gave the idea that "CoVid is over." Especially to the young.

By August 15, it was clear to any epidemiologist what lay ahead. By end of August, the French were supposed to wear masks in all indoor settings (estimates are that 50% or fewer did so, and while tables were supposed to be further apart, many French people took hours and hours of videos showing that it was not the case).

By mid-September, government was panicking a bit as numbers rose to levels higher than any seen earlier and Germany moved to have quarantines for travelers coming into Germany, whereas France remained open to travelers. France mandated masks at all times when out of one's house and the video I have (daily uploads from a couple of Paris-watchers) show that about 70-80% compiled (keeping in mind that about 9-10% of Parisians have already had CoVid and are likely immune at this point in time).

Now, France - especially Paris - has a giant uncontrollable situation and friends there say every hospital bed is taken, that CoVid patients were initially placed alongside non-CoVid patients in shared wards (hopefully not rooms but some are saying, "yes, shared rooms!" while the non-CoVid patients are receiving early discharges.

Same as many places here in the US.

Is the cause entirely a lack of masks and social distancing? Kids as silent spreaders? (Both universities and lower grades reopened in France on Sept 1, I believe).

A lot of epidemiologists note that children spread easily to each other, fairly easily to older children, and from there, the older children and young adults infect first the middle-aged, their parents, and then the grandparents get it).

Since they did so many things at once that could have caused the surge and yes, people are now non-compliant, here we are. C'est fou.

And in another European capital, one of my last remaining older relatives has gotten COVid - while in hospital for needed surgery. Hospital was up front about it, at least...so far, she's recovering, but has been discharged to home (where she's alone) prior to what her infectious disease doctor would have liked - due to her bed being needed for someone else.

It's interesting to me that our ancestors trekked huge distances on foot, forged trails across the Bering Strait, settled on continents far from home after weeks on boats with seasick people and still didn't call it "fatigue."

This CoVid fatigue is entirely psychological, in my view, and a product of modern life and convenience. Things may get worse before they get better, and hopefully the young people now positive for CoVid will be among those with lasting immunity, so they don't have to face physical fatigue by getting CoVid later in life.

 

[CharlestonGal]

BBM--very funny! IMO of course.

I do have some hope that with so many vulnerable folks (like DH and I, in our mid 70s) staying home this winter, the prevalence of flu and associated morbidity and mortality will be greatly reduced. We've discussed on this thread in relation to Australia, I believe.
MOO

I hear you, but I'm honestly not trying to be funny. The president personally told us, on video, that free antibody treatment would be given to all Americans. I, for one, plan to hold him to it.

 

[slowpoke]

That may explain why Japan never had the significant problems with Covid. Even though their population is significantly older. However, there is also far less obesity in the Japanese population as well.
The puzzle of Japan's low virus death rate

I read an interesting theory that the language we speak may be a factor. That it is generally considered that the Chinese and English languages are more “spitty by nature” than the Japanese language, for one.

There’s even been some suggestion by researchers that one of the reasons why there were no probable cases of SARS in Japan during that global outbreak in 2002 and 2003, while more than 70 people were diagnosed with the illness in the US, is because Japanese doesn’t have the same forcefully-exhaled breaths in front of p’s, t’s, k’s q’s, ch’s and c’s that Chinese and English do.

With the novel coronavirus, too, infection rates have been impressively low in Japan, raising questions about whether the Japanese language and manners of speaking may play a role in preventing transmission.

We're ignoring one of the most obvious ways to avoid spreading the coronavirus: stop talking so much

 

[CSIDreamer]

CoVid fatigue is thought to be responsible for extreme loosening of restrictions back in late July and a subsequent bump up in European cases, particularly in France. Two weeks later, case rates climbed just a little at first (the usual story).

Various mitigation measures were asked of people, but they were not followed according to everything I've read. Many French people state that they think the rules went from strict to exceedingly loose too quickly, which gave the idea that "CoVid is over." Especially to the young.

By August 15, it was clear to any epidemiologist what lay ahead. By end of August, the French were supposed to wear masks in all indoor settings (estimates are that 50% or fewer did so, and while tables were supposed to be further apart, many French people took hours and hours of videos showing that it was not the case).

By mid-September, government was panicking a bit as numbers rose to levels higher than any seen earlier and Germany moved to have quarantines for travelers coming into Germany, whereas France remained open to travelers. France mandated masks at all times when out of one's house and the video I have (daily uploads from a couple of Paris-watchers) show that about 70-80% compiled (keeping in mind that about 9-10% of Parisians have already had CoVid and are likely immune at this point in time).

Now, France - especially Paris - has a giant uncontrollable situation and friends there say every hospital bed is taken, that CoVid patients were initially placed alongside non-CoVid patients in shared wards (hopefully not rooms but some are saying, "yes, shared rooms!" while the non-CoVid patients are receiving early discharges.

Same as many places here in the US.

Is the cause entirely a lack of masks and social distancing? Kids as silent spreaders? (Both universities and lower grades reopened in France on Sept 1, I believe).

A lot of epidemiologists note that children spread easily to each other, fairly easily to older children, and from there, the older children and young adults infect first the middle-aged, their parents, and then the grandparents get it).

Since they did so many things at once that could have caused the surge and yes, people are now non-compliant, here we are. C'est fou.

And in another European capital, one of my last remaining older relatives has gotten COVid - while in hospital for needed surgery. Hospital was up front about it, at least...so far, she's recovering, but has been discharged to home (where she's alone) prior to what her infectious disease doctor would have liked - due to her bed being needed for someone else.

It's interesting to me that our ancestors trekked huge distances on foot, forged trails across the Bering Strait, settled on continents far from home after weeks on boats with seasick people and still didn't call it "fatigue."

This CoVid fatigue is entirely psychological, in my view, and a product of modern life and convenience. Things may get worse before they get better, and hopefully the young people now positive for CoVid will be among those with lasting immunity, so they don't have to face physical fatigue by getting CoVid later in life.

I am so uncomfortable hearing people are home alone with Covid. But I guess there is no ready solution. Jmo

 

[10ofRods]

I read an interesting theory that the language we speak may be a factor. That it is generally considered that the Chinese and English languages are more “spitty by nature” than the Japanese language, for one.

We're ignoring one of the most obvious ways to avoid spreading the coronavirus: stop talking so much

The amount of talking is cultural as well. Some cultures are much quieter. I am told that Norwegians and Swedes do much less talking, whereas the French have a number of words for "chatterbox" and can be seen talking animatedly in every café in larger cities. Brits are famous for their up close talking in pubs and pubs can be quite small as well.

One quick way to get CoVid is to have an hour long, unmasked conversation with someone who is shedding active virions (asymptomatically), with average conversational distance (2-3 feet).

 

[anneg]

I am so uncomfortable hearing people are home alone with Covid. But I guess there is no ready solution. Jmo

This makes me wonder about best ways to support such people...especially if they have no relatives. A daily phone call by a public health nurse would be helpful, IMO. Neighbors could pitch in and drop off food, etc. That is probably happening informally in many communities. I know some WS members do this sort of thing.

 

[MimosaMornings]

McDonald’s, Chipotle and Domino’s Are Booming During Coronavirus While Your Neighborhood Restaurant Struggles

“The coronavirus pandemic is splitting the restaurant industry in two. Big, well capitalized chains like Chipotle Mexican GrillInc. and Domino’s Pizza Inc. are gaining customers and adding stores while tens of thousands of local eateries go bust.”

49-Unit IHOP Franchisee Files for Bankruptcy | FSR magazine

“A franchisee operating 49 IHOP units filed for bankruptcy May 6, citing the COVID-19 pandemic as the primary issue.

CFRA Holdings and its affiliates CFRA LLC and CFRA Tri-Cities LLC operate stores in South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. The group is based in Pinellas County, Florida.”
———
Local restaurants are struggling, I don’t do but one since the others are further away and the food is cold by time I get back to the house. I would consider an outdoor sitting restaurant environment but very few masks and no social distancing rule that out. It’s disappointing because I miss it.

 

[anneg]

I read an interesting theory that the language we speak may be a factor. That it is generally considered that the Chinese and English languages are more “spitty by nature” than the Japanese language, for one.




We're ignoring one of the most obvious ways to avoid spreading the coronavirus: stop talking so much

As a choir singer, I was interested to hear during a recent Zoom call that among the sounds in English that can propel virus the greatest distance from the mouth when singing are words ending in "th" (like with) or an "ff" sound (like puff, cough, laugh). I think there were others but those are the ones I recall at the moment. I should look to see if there is a link for this info.
@musicaljoke -- do you know?

MOO

 

[MimosaMornings]

This makes me wonder about best ways to support such people...especially if they have no relatives. A daily phone call by a public health nurse would be helpful, IMO. Neighbors could pitch in and drop off food, etc. That is probably happening informally in many communities. I know some WS members do this sort of thing.

Are they assigned a home health nurse when they are released from the hospital for follow up? I know here the social worker usually sets it up before my dad left the hospital for non covid respiratory issue.
But that brings up another issue. Are there assigned aides/nurses for just covid patients? Our nurse stated that she is only seeing non covid patients but is receiving increased pressure from her employee to take covid patients.

 

[CharlestonGal]

McDonald’s, Chipotle and Domino’s Are Booming During Coronavirus While Your Neighborhood Restaurant Struggles

“The coronavirus pandemic is splitting the restaurant industry in two. Big, well capitalized chains like Chipotle Mexican GrillInc. and Domino’s Pizza Inc. are gaining customers and adding stores while tens of thousands of local eateries go bust.”

49-Unit IHOP Franchisee Files for Bankruptcy | FSR magazine

“A franchisee operating 49 IHOP units filed for bankruptcy May 6, citing the COVID-19 pandemic as the primary issue.

CFRA Holdings and its affiliates CFRA LLC and CFRA Tri-Cities LLC operate stores in South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. The group is based in Pinellas County, Florida.”
———
Local restaurants are struggling, I don’t do but one since the others are further away and the food is cold by time I get back to the house. I would consider an outdoor sitting restaurant environment but very few masks and no social distancing rule that out. It’s disappointing because I miss it.

More and more of my local non-chain restaurants are appearing on Doordash. I order exclusively from the locals and delivery is free because I have Dash Pass. It's a win for the restaurant, the dasher, and me, who hates to cook.