Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #83

[JerseyGirl]

WHO warns Canada is facing a 'second wave' of coronavirus cases

• Canada is facing a second wave of coronavirus cases as the provinces of Quebec and Ontario report the bulk of the country's Covid-19 death toll, PAHO's top health official warned Wednesday.
• Nearly 80% of all of Canada's cases have stemmed from Ontario and Quebec, its two most populated provinces.
• Ontario officials ordered indoor gyms, movie theaters, casinos, performing arts venues and indoor dining at restaurants to close over the weekend in Ottawa, Peel and Toronto for at least 28 days.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Ummmm......from your link:

As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.

The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.

Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.

Great Barrington Declaration – An open letter and declaration from public health academics and professionals

MOO, and keep in mind that it IS POSSIBLE that natural herd immunity can never be reached without a frequent and effective vaccine.

Herd immunity is an ideal.. and in the past is used for vaccines... yet being touted naturally at this time for COVID.

There may be some... Can someone here give me an example of another disease that has NATURAL herd immunity?

Original SARS?
H1N1?

 

[CharlestonGal]

Yet this is perhaps misleading? Yes, the WHO has information on lockdowns, but that's not the similar swiss cheese approach to the Barrington model MOO. With the Barrington model, perhaps leaders could suggest that we give children "pox" parties? Can we all agree that having it go wild with children is something to perhaps speak out against.. or would a question be to others "do you think an option to have pox parties as we did in the late 50's and 60's with this specific virus."

Don't know how many here would agree to having such exposure, nor espousing to have such done country wide or worldwide.. but indeed a VERY interesting question to see the answer to of some.

As discussed and many here agree, focus on mask physical distance, ventilation, masks, hand hygeine, testing, tracing and quarantine, surface cleaning for ALL.

That is how it differs?

https://img.grepmed.com/uploads/10555/management-covid19-model-virus-swisscheese-original.jpeg

All above moo, with links, etc.

Luckily, there is not a nation on earth that endorses natural herd immunity. Yet. The WHO took the step on Monday of reiterating that option is an absolute no-go.

Herd immunity, an ‘unethical’ COVID-19 strategy, Tedros warns policymakers

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus: Five deaths and 1,095 new cases confirmed in Ireland

HEALTH OFFICIALS HAVE confirmed 1,095 new cases of Covid-19 in Ireland.

The total number of confirmed cases is now 45,243*.

Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan also this evening confirmed five further patients diagnosed with Covid-19 have died.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

How Long Will Immunity To The Coronavirus Last?

It finds that 90% of those people had antibody responses that lasted at least three months. And these antibodies neutralized the virus, at least in the lab.

"It's reasonable to assume that there will be protection for a time frame of one to three years.," says Florian Krammer, one of the scientists on that study. "But of course, we are scientists. We have to prove that, right? That's why everyone's cautious about it. But I think that's a pretty fair assumption."

How Long Will Immunity To The Coronavirus Last?

Yeah, that 90% only have lasted 3 months is concerning with the IgM and IgG falloffs from the previous SARS. If we will need a biannual vaccine (vs annual for flu which is do to phylogenetic drifting vs. Abs don't last)... the $$$ and efforts will be tremendous worldwide for governments/taxpayers.

MOO

Hope not!

 

[dixiegirl1035]

From an LSU game with 90,000 proposed fans to 0 game with 0 fans. In like 3 days. I'm getting whiplash.

Gators game against LSU postponed due to COVID-19 outbreak

Perhaps this is what is NEEDED for the normal Joe (and folks like the coach) have to have happen to get it? Perhaps this *negative* publicity is the best to educate as to how easily spread? Yet, folks will perhaps still be on fence stating deaths and CIR is down?

 

[dixiegirl1035]

What is "dim sum for lunch", if you don't mind me asking?

*raises hand*

The best best best experience in this world. It's like Tapas for Chinese.. the best of.

My birthday meal years gone by!

They have carts going around sharing with all... OMG... but with COVID, a travelling cart by each table to present and offer is the way of that buffet in the US that just went bankrupt. The buffet restaurants, IIRC, 3 have gone bankrupt since the pandemic as the business model doesn't work and they knew it would be longer than they could be a float. MOO

 

[tresir2012]

MOO, and keep in mind that it IS POSSIBLE that natural herd immunity can never be reached without a frequent and effective vaccine.

Herd immunity is an ideal.. and in the past is used for vaccines... yet being touted naturally at this time for COVID.

There may be some... Can someone here give me an example of another disease that has NATURAL herd immunity?

Original SARS?
H1N1?

Chicken pox?

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Just my opinion. The family party guy should feel guilty.

I would not wish that guilt upon anyone. (Not even judging that he knew, or was severely ignorant to the world)

 

[katydid23]

Hmmm, Wonder if his PCR test had only 10 rounds of amplification vs. normal 23-25 and Fauci was shown such proof? As Reagan said, Trust but verify!

…NBC News said it had received a statement from Dr. Clifford Lane, clinical director at the National Institutes of Health, indicating that he and Dr. Anthony Fauci had reviewed Trump’s recent medical data, including a molecular PCR test collected and analyzed by the NIH on Tuesday, and concluded “with a high degree of confidence” that the president was “not shedding infectious virus.”

Both Guthrie and the president will be at least 12 feet apart from each other and the audience…

End excerpt. Please read the complete NBC New report at this link.

 

[tresir2012]

Lives put at risk because pipeline for coronavirus antivirals is 'bare' experts warn

COVID-19 vaccine players will split $100B in sales and $40B in profits, with Moderna leading the way: analyst

 

[10ofRods]

The pausing of two vaccine trials in the US is a good thing, say vaccine scientists:

COVID-19 vaccine trials are on hold, but experts say that's reassuring

That's because only the top level researchers know who got placebo and who did not. By referring these cases back up to the "command" of the trial, much information can be gained (including whether people in the placebo group are more likely to get CoVid - so it could be that some people in the placebo group got CoVid, but that has to be determined and it takes time).

This is the way careful vaccine research is done. It's probably the first time in history that people are following along with vaccine trials using MSM and SM.

 

[10ofRods]

Chicken pox?

Varicella (chickenpox) has a vaccine which is administered to American children around age 12-15 months, with a booster just before school, and often another booster at age 13-14.

Chickenpox wasn't under control until the vaccine came along. And, it has an interesting twist, which is that older adults lose their immunity (this has to do with T cells and humoral immunity) and can get shingles...so we retake the vaccine if we're concerned as adults. I don't know anyone who has ever had shingles who didn't go on to take the vaccine, as it is not a fun disease.

 

[katydid23]

Ummmm......from your link:

As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.

The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.

Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.

Great Barrington Declaration – An open letter and declaration from public health academics and professionals

Sundog's statement was correct, in my opinion. Your bolded portions do not contradict what Sundog posted.

Sundog:
First, it suggests that the Barrington Declaration advocates for herd immunity, but it does not. Rather, the Barrington Declaration advocates for "focused protection" rather than wholesale lockdowns as a pubic health approach. It is similar to what WHO recommend recently regarding lockdowns and how they are often inadvisable for the overall well-being of society. The Barrington Declaration states that we should practice focused protection and other mitigation strategies UNTIL herd immunity is reached through vaccine and natural infection. Nowhere in the Barrington Declaration is their any advocacy for herd immunity


you replied:

Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.

 

[Satchie]

They are never going to achieve natural herd immunity when infection only confers 3-4 months immunity. How is that hard to understand? We were never able to achieve natural herd immunity with agents such as smallpox, measles, polio and many more even though infection with those agents generally confers immunity for life. There is always an endless supply of naive hosts. For hundreds of years.

I realize the White House is populated by lawyers and political science majors, but these are pretty basic concepts and easy to understand. jmo

ETA:

Health experts say the cost in human life is too high to pursue this strategy, and Ilboudo noted there are no examples of community immunity to any pandemic viral infectious diseases without a vaccine.

“We have not achieved any herd immunity through a natural disease process to most major infectious diseases that affect the population to this scale,” she said. “All of the major infections I know of have required vaccination.”

COVID-19 Vaccine Key to Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’

Great post!

I hate the fact that people even use the term 'herd immunity'. It's a concept from livestock farming, where the only goal is to increase the farmer's profit. The animals are completely expendable, and completely the slaves of the farmer to do with as he chooses, including euthanize.

 

[CSIDreamer]

Yeah, that 90% only have lasted 3 months is concerning with the IgM and IgG falloffs from the previous SARS. If we will need a biannual vaccine (vs annual for flu which is do to phylogenetic drifting vs. Abs don't last)... the $$$ and efforts will be tremendous worldwide for governments/taxpayers.

MOO

Hope not!

The article says at least (at the very least, at a minimum) 3 months. It doesn't say only (just, no more than).

 

[RANCH]

Yeah, that 90% only have lasted 3 months is concerning with the IgM and IgG falloffs from the previous SARS. If we will need a biannual vaccine (vs annual for flu which is do to phylogenetic drifting vs. Abs don't last)... the $$$ and efforts will be tremendous worldwide for governments/taxpayers.

MOO

Hope not!

What makes you feel that a biannual vaccine may be needed?

The quote I posted says that the people who had recovered from Covid had antibody responses that lasted at least 3 months not "only" 3 months. It was not about a vaccine. JMO

 

[tresir2012]

Varicella (chickenpox) has a vaccine which is administered to American children around age 12-15 months, with a booster just before school, and often another booster at age 13-14.

Chickenpox wasn't under control until the vaccine came along. And, it has an interesting twist, which is that older adults lose their immunity (this has to do with T cells and humoral immunity) and can get shingles...so we retake the vaccine if we're concerned as adults. I don't know anyone who has ever had shingles who didn't go on to take the vaccine, as it is not a fun disease.

Chicken pox is still a good example of herd immunity which is what I was answering. Before the vaccine, most kids caught it and achieved herd immunity, now it is by either the vaccine or by catching it. I personally have never caught it, either from when my brothers and sisters caught it or from when I was older and both my kids caught it. I was told by the doctor I must be immune from it. I certainly don't want shingles either but I am worried about getting that as a vaccine.

MOO

 

[10ofRods]

Perhaps this is what is NEEDED for the normal Joe (and folks like the coach) have to have happen to get it? Perhaps this *negative* publicity is the best to educate as to how easily spread? Yet, folks will perhaps still be on fence stating deaths and CIR is down?

I was just discussing human ability to do abstract thinking (including math and statistics) with my class. Most college students want to claim that all humans are capable of a high degree of complex thinking, but...life says otherwise.

Needing an actual empirical example (someone you know dying) in order to understand what a virus is...illustrates the bare minimum of abstract thinking:

That human got it and died, so I could get it and die, too.

Other people are able to understand the abstract concept of a virus and how the math of exponential growth works (R-naught and so forth). They do not need other humans to die in great numbers in order to understand how viruses work.

People with poor numerical literacy 'more susceptible' to Covid-19 'fake news'

There's also a strong correlation between overall scientific literacy and a nation's ability to use mitigation measures.

Many people believe what they want to believe, and are not able to incorporate facts into their worldview. However, that can be shattered if they actual know someone who dies from CoVid or someone who gets a serious case.

So yeah, I guess the deaths of some people are important to educating other people, but it's sad to me that it has to be that way.

 

[10ofRods]

If the US had had Australia's death rate, almost 188,000 Americans would still be alive:

https://www.latestresearchnews.com/...ralia-it-would-have-had-187 661-fewer-deaths/