Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #83

[CharlestonGal]

Coronavirus | Herd immunity approach to control COVID-19 ‘a dangerous fallacy’, say scientists

Managing COVID-19 by allowing herd immunity to develop in low-risk populations while protecting the most vulnerable is “a dangerous fallacy unsupported by the scientific evidence,” warn an international group of 80 researchers in an open letter.

The letter, published in The Lancet journal, referred to by its authors as the John Snow Memorandum, noted that any pandemic management strategy relying upon the population to develop immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed.

Based on evidence from many countries, the scientists said it is not possible to restrict uncontrolled outbreaks to certain sections of society, adding that it is “practically impossible” and “highly unethical” to isolate large swathes of the population.

While special efforts to protect the most vulnerable are essential, they said these must go hand-in-hand with multi-pronged population-level strategies.

 

[tresir2012]

Chickens do not contract or spread or provide immunity to chickenpox.

Definition of Chickenpox

FYI I never said chickens get or spread chicken pox. Chickens do get fowl pest though.

 

[MimosaMornings]

Trump Said Don’t Let COVID Dominate Your Life. These Millennials Don’t Know If They Will Ever Get Better. — BuzzFeed News

“As the United States closes in on nearly 8 million coronavirus cases, thousands of people are still suffering from debilitating symptoms months after they contracted the virus. COVID-19 has upended their lives, changed their bodies, and made it difficult to complete everyday tasks or, in some cases, hold down jobs. A CDC study from this summer found that 1 in 5 people aged 18 to 34 who tested positive for COVID-19 had not recovered their health after a few weeks. Some may be chronically ill and need long-term care. Months into the pandemic, there’s still no real treatment plan for these patients and many say their own doctors, friends, family members — and now their president — continue to downplay what they are going through.

Over the past three months, BuzzFeed News has spoken with more than 100 of these long-haulers as they searched for help and recognition. In the beginning, many said they felt very much alone, finding solace in online support groups. As doctors learned more about the virus, it became apparent that the narrative that the coronavirus largely bypassed young, active people was not entirely true. Many previously healthy long-haulers describe a common set of symptoms: fatigue, recurring headaches and fevers, trouble breathing, and a persistent "brain fog" that makes it difficult to remember things or focus.”

“When President Donald Trump tested positive for COVID-19, many long-haulers held their breath: If the country watched their leader confirm that the virus was serious, their plight might receive more attention. But then Trump took off his mask, told people not to let COVID-19 dominate their lives, and continued to dismiss the virus that has now killed more than 217,000 Americans. On Monday, Trump returned to the campaign trail, telling an audience in Sanford, Florida, that he felt “so powerful” that he would “kiss everyone in that audience.”

“But young long-haulers in states like Vermont, Georgia, and California, want you to know that the coronavirus doesn’t just dominate your life; it can completely change it.”

 

[CharlestonGal]

Justin Trudeau: Canada-US border will stay closed until America gets COVID-19 under control

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Nurses at Portlaoise hospital raise concerns after Covid outbreak leads to closure of ward

Ireland

NURSES AT MIDLAND Regional Hospital Portlaoise (MRHP) have raised concerns about staff shortages amid a Covid-19 outbreak at the hospital.
The medical ward at the hospital is no longer taking new patients after a number of patients and staff tested positive for the virus.

As of 8pm yesterday, four patients in the hospital were confirmed to have Covid-19, including one in critical care. Two further patients are suspected to have the virus.
Nursing staff have expressed concern at the fact a number of colleagues are off work, either because they have Covid-19, were a close contact of a confirmed case, or are waiting for test results.

 

[tresir2012]

I think the US might find themselves on the receiving end of UN sanctions if they try this. Allowing covid to spread uncontrolled in the US negatively impacts the entire world, and is a giant slap in the face to a planet that is collectively trying to do something about it.

The idea that you can "protect" vulnerable people while you let a highly contagious pathogen run side-by-side through a "healthy" population is absurd on an epidemiology level. It's also putting at-risk people more at-risk, which is okay, I guess, with some people. jmo

The UN (via WHO) are advocating that lockdowns are not the answer.

No more lockdowns: World Health Organisation warns that the price is too high - GO! & Express

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.

They include the vaccine as part of the herd immunity, and acknowledge it's a part of the solution.

Basically right now, everyone is expected to give up life in general until a vaccination is available. I'm not sure why protecting the vulnerable upsets people so much.

Barrington paper: with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.
CSI Dreamer: I'm not sure why protecting the vulnerable upsets people so much....

Well, I would rather ask WHAT is actually being done to protect the vulnerable?

Black and Latinos are far more likely to die from Covid. Their vulnerabilities have been well documented. Should the be the first to better treatments, first to get vaccines?

Nursing homes are getting sued and blamed for not serving their residents. Are we seeing federal programs to build better air controlling systems? Are we mandating quality safe social environments so these people can be with their relatives, rather than living and dying in isolation? Are we training and paying ltcc people what they deserve to do such hard work, to protect the vulnerable?

The coronavirus pandemic keeps evolving. So does the news coverage, as these six stories show - Poynter

I, personally, am just so worked up and upset about the Barrington Paper, because it is just so d* theoretical, and will do nothing to actually institute and develop what is needed....

And it is sucking up everyone's oxygen,
Complaining about MSM,
Calling for Focused Protection---when we can't even get enough in a stimulus bill to help people, as has been strongly recommended, economically, by the Fed Chief.
Calling for Miracles.

In the Lancet, today. But the cats are out of the bag.... we are right back in a confusion lockdown.

Proponents suggest this (herd immunity) would lead to the development of infection-acquired population immunity in the low-risk population, which will eventually protect the vulnerable.
This is a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32153-X/fulltext

 

[tresir2012]

Justin Trudeau: Canada-US border will stay closed until America gets COVID-19 under control

Canada has it's own rising caseload though. Not sure what WHO are advising now if lockdowns are not recommended.

WHO warns Canada is facing a 'second wave' of coronavirus cases

"Canada is currently facing its second wave, and areas that were not previously affected are now surpassing the numbers seen during the first wave,” Carissa Etienne, director of PAHO and the World Health Organization regional director for the Americas, said at a news briefing.

“The state of the pandemic in the Americas remains complex,” she said.

New Covid-19 cases in Canada have grown by more than 6% compared with a week ago as of Tuesday, based on a seven-day average to smooth out daily jumps in reporting, according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

During its peak in April, Canada reported roughly 1,700 daily new cases based on a weekly average but was able to suppress that figure to only a few hundred by mid-July. Cases have since surged across Canada, which is now reporting more than 2,200 daily new cases a day, according to Johns Hopkins data.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Even the WHO has come out against lockdowns. So we need to be thinking about how we open up society and still protect the most vulnerable.

But Barrington said yes to lockdowns in a hot spot? I think European cities are more the hot spots than the US right now.... but obviously more massive confusion.

 

[CharlestonGal]

Barrington paper: with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.
CSI Dreamer: I'm not sure why protecting the vulnerable upsets people so much....

Well, I would rather ask WHAT is actually being done to protect the vulnerable?

Black and Latinos are far more likely to die from Covid. Their vulnerabilities have been well documented. Should the be the first to better treatments, first to get vaccines?

Nursing homes are getting sued and blamed for not serving their residents. Are we seeing federal programs to build better air controlling systems? Are we mandating quality safe social environments so these people can be with their relatives, rather than living and dying in isolation? Are we training and paying ltcc people what they deserve to do such hard work, to protect the vulnerable?

The coronavirus pandemic keeps evolving. So does the news coverage, as these six stories show - Poynter

I, personally, am just so worked up and upset about the Barrington Paper, because it is just so d* theoretical, and will do nothing to actually institute and develop what is needed....

And it is sucking up everyone's oxygen,
Complaining about MSM,
Calling for Focused Protection---when we can't even get enough in a stimulus bill to help people, as has been strongly recommended, economically, by the Fed Chief.
Calling for Miracles.

In the Lancet, today. But the cats are out of the bag.... we are right back in a confusion lockdown.

Proponents suggest this (herd immunity) would lead to the development of infection-acquired population immunity in the low-risk population, which will eventually protect the vulnerable.
This is a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32153-X/fulltext

Never fear, @nhmemorymaker. There is no support for this quackery anywhere in the medical establishment.

“Herd Immunity” is Not an Answer to a Pandemic
Promoting the concept of “herd immunity” as framed in a recently circulated document as an answer to the COVID-19 pandemic is inappropriate, irresponsible and ill-informed. “Community immunity,” or “herd immunity,” a goal of vaccination campaigns, should never come at the cost of planned exposure to infection of millions of additional people as well as the severe illness and preventable deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. To assert that stepping away from the vigilance needed to control the spread of this novel coronavirus and that abdication of efforts to control a pandemic that has overwhelmed health systems worldwide is a “compassionate approach” is profoundly misleading.

As an association of more than 12,000 frontline infectious diseases scientists, physicians, public health experts, and other health professionals, the Infectious Diseases Society of America and its HIV Medicine Association strongly denounce the “declaration,” released without data or evidence, that states this crisis can be controlled in the absence of critical public health measures.

“Herd Immunity” is Not an Answer to a Pandemic

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Trump Said Don’t Let COVID Dominate Your Life. These Millennials Don’t Know If They Will Ever Get Better. — BuzzFeed News

“As the United States closes in on nearly 8 million coronavirus cases, thousands of people are still suffering from debilitating symptoms months after they contracted the virus. COVID-19 has upended their lives, changed their bodies, and made it difficult to complete everyday tasks or, in some cases, hold down jobs. A CDC study from this summer found that 1 in 5 people aged 18 to 34 who tested positive for COVID-19 had not recovered their health after a few weeks. Some may be chronically ill and need long-term care. Months into the pandemic, there’s still no real treatment plan for these patients and many say their own doctors, friends, family members — and now their president — continue to downplay what they are going through.

Over the past three months, BuzzFeed News has spoken with more than 100 of these long-haulers as they searched for help and recognition. In the beginning, many said they felt very much alone, finding solace in online support groups. As doctors learned more about the virus, it became apparent that the narrative that the coronavirus largely bypassed young, active people was not entirely true. Many previously healthy long-haulers describe a common set of symptoms: fatigue, recurring headaches and fevers, trouble breathing, and a persistent "brain fog" that makes it difficult to remember things or focus.”

“When President Donald Trump tested positive for COVID-19, many long-haulers held their breath: If the country watched their leader confirm that the virus was serious, their plight might receive more attention. But then Trump took off his mask, told people not to let COVID-19 dominate their lives, and continued to dismiss the virus that has now killed more than 217,000 Americans. On Monday, Trump returned to the campaign trail, telling an audience in Sanford, Florida, that he felt “so powerful” that he would “kiss everyone in that audience.”

“But young long-haulers in states like Vermont, Georgia, and California, want you to know that the coronavirus doesn’t just dominate your life; it can completely change it.”

I believe this point is too underplayed. Most of the cases, I have known have been long term facility cases, and most have died. But Some of the people I have known, or known of, have had lingering complaints. The brain fog and the fatique are real, but individuals just have to live with it... it is not a WOW headline, but it is devastatingly real to them.

 

[CharlestonGal]

Even the WHO has come out against lockdowns. So we need to be thinking about how we open up society and still protect the most vulnerable.

We already know how to open up society and still protect the vulnerable. The guidelines have been in place for months. Avoid crowds, wash your hands, wear a mask, social distance, test, trace, isolate.

Failure to follow the most basic of guidelines is what leads to uncontrolled outbreaks that require drastic actions, like lockdowns. jmo

 

[RANCH]

This is right from the declaration, protecting the vulnerable:

Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.

I like all of those ideas.

 

[tresir2012]

Barrington paper: with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.
CSI Dreamer: I'm not sure why protecting the vulnerable upsets people so much....

Well, I would rather ask WHAT is actually being done to protect the vulnerable?

Black and Latinos are far more likely to die from Covid. Their vulnerabilities have been well documented. Should the be the first to better treatments, first to get vaccines?

Nursing homes are getting sued and blamed for not serving their residents. Are we seeing federal programs to build better air controlling systems? Are we mandating quality safe social environments so these people can be with their relatives, rather than living and dying in isolation? Are we training and paying ltcc people what they deserve to do such hard work, to protect the vulnerable?

The coronavirus pandemic keeps evolving. So does the news coverage, as these six stories show - Poynter

I, personally, am just so worked up and upset about the Barrington Paper, because it is just so d* theoretical, and will do nothing to actually institute and develop what is needed....

And it is sucking up everyone's oxygen,
Complaining about MSM,
Calling for Focused Protection---when we can't even get enough in a stimulus bill to help people, as has been strongly recommended, economically, by the Fed Chief.
Calling for Miracles.

In the Lancet, today. But the cats are out of the bag.... we are right back in a confusion lockdown.

Proponents suggest this (herd immunity) would lead to the development of infection-acquired population immunity in the low-risk population, which will eventually protect the vulnerable.
This is a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32153-X/fulltext

Direct link to the JohnSnowMemo mentioned in the article.

John Snow Memorandum

 

[nhmemorymaker]

The UN (via WHO) are advocating that lockdowns are not the answer.

No more lockdowns: World Health Organisation warns that the price is too high - GO! & Express

But they do still put lockdown in the big toolbox:
"we have tools right now that can prevent transmission and save lives,” Van Kerkhove said, referring to measures including tracing, widespread testing, equipping health facilities, physical distancing and wearing masks. “It isn’t one measure alone, all of the existing measures need to be used together.

It will not be part of the US toolbox, so I hope we are better protected by our wide distances. But boy, we are going to have to see what happens in the cities later into the Autumn.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

DBM

 

[nhmemorymaker]

We already know how to open up society and still protect the vulnerable. The guidelines have been in place for months. Avoid crowds, wash your hands, wear a mask, social distance, test, trace, isolate.

Failure to follow the most basic of guidelines is what leads to uncontrolled outbreaks that require drastic actions, like lockdowns. jmo

But that is my point, we are NOT protecting the vulnerable....We are not taking on the sacrifice of working together to get this done.

 

[10ofRods]

oh, yeah I forgot to add this one...and this is rather insulting....... so retirees--so is that 60, 55,70--just "good ol retirees" are to isolate and give up life in general, until some mysterious herd immunity is achieved--10, 20 years????

Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.

Of course, that group of people (especially the newly retired) have disposable income. If they all stay home from restaurants and retail stores, it's going to reduce spending in those places considerably. Most businesses have a very narrow profit margin, and so we can expect that if 25% of the spending in some restaurants came from older people (which is true in my town, lots of breakfast places - the popular one near the hospital is mostly old people)...then those businesses will still go under.

A public space without older people is a different space. I can see it already.

And of course, all businesses that deal with older people must wear masks, have mitigation measures in place because older people still have to go to the doctor, the drugstore, lawyers. I suppose we'll be discouraged from visiting friends in nursing homes - but most people in nursing homes receive visits mostly from people their own age.

Elderly people who love church will be discouraged from going, etc. It'll be up to them to "decide" whether to get CoVid at church. Choirs will be all younger voice (frankly, a lot of 50-somethings are going to make a sober reassessment of their lives).

The work-from-home high tech businesses aren't going to reverse their decisions. Big cities that depended on lunch and dinner shopping/receipts from those workers aren't going to magically recover.

A big plan is needed. Re-ventilation of nursing homes and hospitals should of course be in the plan, as well as ongoing mandates for masks in public transportation and indoor businesses where eating/drinking aren't a factor.

It's interesting how much less we spend right now than when we were working on campus (gas, random stops at the drug store to purchase a greeting card and ending up spending another $50 on seasonal decor or skincare or whatnot, impulse purchases at the mall, going to the mall with granddaughters and buying kid things, taking granddaughters to the indoor play spaces - now all are closed permanently). Buying kites at the concession near the beach...giving the kids money to spend at the nearby kid arcade...

Lots of things we older people spend on that will now be absent from the economy. We've been giving more to political and social causes, as a result.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Well, for one thing, I'm sorry you're so worked up. We are living in very stressful times and need to choose what to get worked up about. I have to make those choices daily just like everyone else. I know it can be difficult as it's also not healthy.

Good points. And true confession....there ARE a number of other critical issues that I am having to address for myself and others right now...they are the issues that more honestly have me worked up!!!
So confusing misinformation just gets magnified in my mind right now.

 

[musicaljoke]

Did you grow up on a farm, out of interest, as I did? My job was shutting in the chickens at night and wonder if that was why I never caught it. MOO.

Heh! The chicken contact wouldn't protect you from chicken pox. Perhaps you were asymptomatic. Cow pox, which is what you might be thinking of, is super rare since the 18th century when it was used in the vaccine against small pox.

In any case, if an older adult hasn't had a shingles vaccine, at it might be a good time to do it asap.