Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #83

[tresir2012]

I hadn't realized that Chris Christie also got a monoclonal antibody - from Eli Lilly

Chris Christie says he was in ICU for 7 days battling Covid-19, urges Americans to wear masks

thanked his doctors and "the manufacturers of Remdesivir and the Eli Lilly monoclonal anti-body cocktail for giving me access to their extraordinary treatments."

Eli Lilly have just pulled it. I saw a link earlier so will find it and edit.

Eli Lilly pauses trial of its monoclonal antibody to treat coronavirus - CNN

 

[Satchie]

I think that the number of deaths should be considered first, followed by the number of hospitalizations and finally the number of people who have tested positive. JMO

I agree, however someone infected today may go into hospital in several days, and then die after 2 weeks, and their death might not show up in the statistics for another couple of weeks.

Covid in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

 

[sds71]

In a statement provided to the PA news agency on Thursday evening, the WHO press office said results from these first four treatment options of the Solidarity trial were “unpromising”.

“The trial found that remdesivir, hydroxychloqoquine, lopinavir/ritonavir and Interferon have little or no effect on mortality for hospitalized patients,” WHO said...

The statement was provided after the FT newspaper reported it had seen a copy of a not-yet-peer-reviewed trial study revealing the drugs had little effect on in-hospital mortality nor on how long patients stayed in hospital.

Other uses of the drugs, for example in community and pre-hospital settings, would have to be examined using different trial designs.”

HuffPost is now a part of Verizon Media

 

[RANCH]

I agree, however someone infected today may go into hospital in several days, and then die after 2 weeks, and their death might not show up in the statistics for another couple of weeks.

Covid in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

Okay. What does that tell us?

 

[dixiegirl1035]

In a statement provided to the PA news agency on Thursday evening, the WHO press office said results from these first four treatment options of the Solidarity trial were “unpromising”.

“The trial found that remdesivir, hydroxychloqoquine, lopinavir/ritonavir and Interferon have little or no effect on mortality for hospitalized patients,” WHO said...

The statement was provided after the FT newspaper reported it had seen a copy of a not-yet-peer-reviewed trial study revealing the drugs had little effect on in-hospital mortality nor on how long patients stayed in hospital.

Other uses of the drugs, for example in community and pre-hospital settings, would have to be examined using different trial designs.”

HuffPost is now a part of Verizon Media

This information has been out for a long time and I'm not seeing anything new here? Is this just media revisiting as those studies were published long ago as the hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir arms of the trials were discontinued on June 20 and July 4 respectively.

Yes, the World Health Organization discontinued the trial’s hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir arms on July 4th as "the interim trial results show that hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir produce little or no reduction in the mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients when compared to standard of care."

WHO discontinues hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir treatment arms for COVID-19
WHO discontinues hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir treatment arms for COVID-19

May 7 Article - https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001282 Mortality at 28 days was similar in the lopinavir–ritonavir group and the standard-care group (19.2% vs. 25.0%; difference, −5.8 percentage points; 95% CI, −17.3 to 5.7). The percentages of patients with detectable viral RNA at various time points were similar.

Other studies continued and found the same -
Oct 13 - Randomized Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy - American College of Cardiology
Randomized Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy - RECOVERY (Lopinavir–Ritonavir) Among patients admitted to the hospital with COVID-19 infection, lopinavir–ritonavir was not superior compared with usual care. Lopinavir–ritonavir did not improve survival, discharge from the hospital, or need for mechanical ventilation.

Remdesivir has 'little or no effect' on survival rates of Covid patients, WHO study finds

 

[Satchie]

Okay. What does that tell us?

I interpret it as meaning that an infectious disease outbreak is an ongoing process, and the snapshot of the numbers on one day alone don't tell us enough to understand the upcoming trend.

If we knew more about the population that was contracting the infection, and we knew more about how they contracted it, and who they'd been in contact with after they contracted it, that would tell us something. But that's too complicated for such a large population.

The IMHE is predicting a pretty steep increase for the US in infections, hospitalisations and deaths, starting in mid November and peaking in mid-January. They're assuming an equally dramatic increase in social distancing, whether voluntarily or not. They use a complicated mathematical model of the disease progression. Whether they are correct or not, time will tell. IHME | COVID-19 Projections

 

[Yvettea]

With the issue of reinfection doesn’t this mean there is the potential for an ongoing source of transmission among the young, perhaps unknowingly (asymptomatic).

It seems the ship has sailed in US as Dr. Fauci has previously said IMO. It may be too late to protect ourselves through masks and distancing etc.

MOO

ETA: as others have previously said we need a vaccine.

 

[RANCH]

I interpret it as meaning that an infectious disease outbreak is an ongoing process, and the snapshot of the numbers on one day alone don't tell us enough to understand the upcoming trend.

If we knew more about the population that was contracting the infection, and we knew more about how they contracted it, and who they'd been in contact with after they contracted it, that would tell us something. But that's too complicated for such a large population.

The IMHE is predicting a pretty steep increase for the US in infections, hospitalisations and deaths, starting in mid November and peaking in mid-January. They're assuming an equally dramatic increase in social distancing, whether voluntarily or not. They use a complicated mathematical model of the disease progression. Whether they are correct or not, timie will tell. IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Excellent post. Thank you.

 

[RANCH]

With the issue of reinfection doesn’t this mean there is the potential for an ongoing source of transmission among the young, perhaps unknowingly (asymptomatic).

It seems the ship has sailed in US as Dr. Fauci has previously said IMO. It may be too late to protect ourselves through masks and distancing etc.

MOO

I didn't know that there is a problem with reinfection. JMO

 

[Yvettea]

I didn't know that there is a problem with reinfection. JMO

TRUE.

My fear got ahead of the facts.

first confirmed case of so-called reinfection with the virus in the U.S. and the fifth confirmed reinfection case worldwide.

 

[MimosaMornings]

TRUE.

My fear got ahead of the facts.

first confirmed case of so-called reinfection with the virus in the U.S. and the fifth confirmed reinfection case worldwide.

Charlotte man warns of possible COVID-19 reinfection. Then the victim-blaming began. — The Charlotte Observer

 

[nightowl1975]

I think that the number of deaths should be considered first, followed by the number of hospitalizations and finally the number of people who have tested positive. JMO

The number of deaths is such a late indicator of a growing problem though. It’s the LAST indicator to really show up after a surge begins. It also ignores the fact that death is not the only possible bad outcome from getting covid. There are a significant number of people who have had covid who are still negatively impacted many weeks or months later.

When the number of cases begins to rise, that is the time to act. That is when you have the opportunity to change the otherwise inevitable surge of hospitalizations. This obviously would also decrease the number of deaths (and decrease the number of survivors with long term negative complications).

If we wait until the death rates increase, it’s far too late IMO.

 

[SouthAussie]

The USA added more than 366,400 cases in the past week – a number nearly 50,000 higher than the tally the previous week, which is a speed of growth not seen since late June.

The surge is fueled by three main factors, Osterholm said. People are returning to social activities because of pandemic fatigue. Young people back at school are spreading the virus to more vulnerable populations. And indoor transmission is increasing as cooler fall weather drives people inside.

At the current rate, new daily cases will peak at the end of December, and daily deaths will peak in mid-January, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

Coronavirus cases in USA grow at a speed not seen since June

 

[Reasonable & Just]

The number of deaths is such a late indicator of a growing problem though. It’s the LAST indicator to really show up after a surge begins. It also ignores the fact that death is not the only possible bad outcome from getting covid. There are a significant number of people who have had covid who are still negatively impacted many weeks or months later.

When the number of cases begins to rise, that is the time to act. That is when you have the opportunity to change the otherwise inevitable surge of hospitalizations. This obviously would also decrease the number of deaths (and decrease the number of survivors with long term negative complications).

If we wait until the death rates increase, it’s far too late IMO.

Exactly. BTW, even my little "safe" community is showing an alarming increase...we had almost nothing for a very long time. Schools and local university reopened, though they aren't necessarily the reason. I am trying to be as careful as possible at work, while still trying to offer students useful educational experiences.

 

[mickey2942]

Montana COVID cases threaten to overwhelm health care system

 

[JaneEyre]

We had fowl pest on our farm in the 50's. Varicella encephalitis is connected to the virus that causes that though apparently.

Fowlpox is the worldwide disease of poultry caused by viruses of the family Poxviridae and the genus Avipoxvirus.

It is not related to varicella. It is also transmitted differently, both through biting insects and inhalation.

 

[RANCH]

The number of deaths is such a late indicator of a growing problem though. It’s the LAST indicator to really show up after a surge begins. It also ignores the fact that death is not the only possible bad outcome from getting covid. There are a significant number of people who have had covid who are still negatively impacted many weeks or months later.

When the number of cases begins to rise, that is the time to act. That is when you have the opportunity to change the otherwise inevitable surge of hospitalizations. This obviously would also decrease the number of deaths (and decrease the number of survivors with long term negative complications).

If we wait until the death rates increase, it’s far too late IMO.[/QUOT

The number of deaths is such a late indicator of a growing problem though. It’s the LAST indicator to really show up after a surge begins. It also ignores the fact that death is not the only possible bad outcome from getting covid. There are a significant number of people who have had covid who are still negatively impacted many weeks or months later.

When the number of cases begins to rise, that is the time to act. That is when you have the opportunity to change the otherwise inevitable surge of hospitalizations. This obviously would also decrease the number of deaths (and decrease the number of survivors with long term negative complications).

If we wait until the death rates increase, it’s far too late IMO.

If I see the death rate and hospitalizations going down over a months time and over the same time period the number positive Covid-19 cases go up I will come to the conclusion that things are better and not worse. JMO

 

[musicaljoke]

‘Dangerous.’ ‘Hallucinatory.’ The new declaration pushing for herd immunity is not looking at the science, or looking out for you

Is it unscientific libertarian hooey, at the expense of our shared humanity? Oh, yes. Absolutely.

“My personal view was I was mortified by that,” says Dr. Gerald Evans, the chair of the division of infectious diseases at Queen’s University, and a volunteer member of the province’s science table. “My thought at the time was this was an ideologically bent statement, and had nothing to do as much with the science, and what we’re facing.“

“Quite frankly, it’s a dangerous philosophy,” says Dr. Isaac Bogoch, infectious diseases specialist at the University of Toronto. “And there’s some significant, fundamental epidemiological, infectious-diseases and public health flaws in this.”

“This is a hallucinatory document,” says Dr. Amir Attaran, a professor of law and epidemiology at the University of Ottawa.

First, protecting vulnerable people is impossible. As Bogoch notes, up to 40 to 50 per cent of Canadians either fall into a vulnerable category, or are closely connected with someone who does.

[...]

 

[Trino]

We appear to have a rather elite health plan in the US. Trump receives an experimental drug. Chris Christie receives one. Wonder who else. Hope? We just don't know. Of course, we don't want our President to die, but it seems others deserve the same care.

 

[musicaljoke]

If I see the death rate and hospitalizations going down over a months time and over the same time period the number positive Covid-19 cases go up I will come to the conclusion that things are better and not worse. JMO

But how is that possible? Deaths and hospitalizations follow rising cases by a couple of weeks. If cases are rising, that's the early warning sign that deaths will rise too.