Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #83

[MimosaMornings]

A lot of the students have it already and are confined to their halls working online only. Obviously this wouldn't work for those living at home or out in the community, but it is the ones in the halls and they are already catching it mainly.

Covid: About 40 universities report coronavirus cases

This article says 40 unis out of 130 reportedly have Covid as of more than two weeks ago. It has a link in it called Unicovid that may have more up to date info.

UniCovid UK | Tracking Covid-19 at U.K. Universities

From the link

Current tally:
114 Universities have reported coronavirus cases.
92 in England.
1 in Northern Ireland.
14 in Scotland.
7 in Wales.

As at 9am 15 October 2020, our data puts the number of confirmed cases for students at 16,397, for staff 255, in total 16,652.

As at 5pm 15 October 2020, the UCU dashboard reported 20,022 confirmed covid cases at U.K. universities.

That's unbelievable. From 40 universities to 114 in only 2 weeks.

Higher education in numbers

This link says 2.38 million was the student population 2018/19 so that is almost 1% infected already.

——-
Were the students not informed of what would happen if there was an outbreak or if they tested positive?
—-
“Joe Ward at Manchester Metropolitan University said: "If I was made aware that this is how things would be and things would only be online then I definitely would have reconsidered going to university this year."

“They were promised a mix of face-to-face and online teaching and have paid for accommodation - but the balance seems to be shifting more towards online lessons.

This means even less in-person time with other students and staff and more hours cooped up in their room with online recordings and academic versions of Zoom meetings.”

———
I saw my nephews information packet for a college in the US and it stated what would happen if there was an outbreak, isolation, etc. Plus a student code. Not specifics but a general outline that gave you a good idea of what might happen.
He elected to stay home for online classes.
He knew it wasn’t going to be the usual party central lifestyle during a pandemic.

 

[tresir2012]

I am not sure that people understand how many people are considered vulnerable.

It is said that in the UK, about one quarter of their population is considered vulnerable.

Translate that to the US population (because I cannot find any comment on the size of the vulnerable population there) and that would mean that 82,750,000 people would be considered vulnerable.

That is one heck of a lot of people to contain, protect, and tend to ..... and for how long?
"When herd immunity is reached" seems a very vague statement. How long would that take? Years?
The anticipated date for any vaccine is already being pushed further and further away.

In the UK, about a quarter of the population would be classed as vulnerable to Covid-19.
Why herd immunity strategy is regarded as fringe viewpoint

Have you got a source for the 25% vulnerable relating to UK? That would be 16 million people. Seems high to me.

 

[RANCH]

Translate that to the US population (because I cannot find any comment on the size of the vulnerable population there) and that would mean that 82,750,000 people would be considered vulnerable.

That is one heck of a lot of people to contain, protect, and tend to ..... and for how long?
"When herd immunity is reached" seems a very vague statement. How long would that take? Years?
The anticipated date for any vaccine is already being pushed further and further away.

SBM

I would hope that we protect and help care for the most vulnerable for as long as it takes. I'm praying that a vaccine is available as soon as possible, hopefully not years from now. JMO

 

[tresir2012]

Yes - and that's why there's been a flurry of scientific articles about how, due to the silent spread amongst most students (including many uni students), it can percolate for an extended time period then erupt within a population (let's face it, uni students visit other uni students, including those from other unis, particularly as they participate in athletics or inter-university competitions and projects).

With 1% infected, there should be good data in about 2 months as to the consequences of this policy. (fatalities, recoveries, organ transplant lists, heart and lung damage, length of hospitalization, etc). It's clear, though, that this is part of why UK is seeing an overall bump-up in cases.
---------------

Meanwhile, back in the US, I just sat and stared at Alabama's numbers today. 50 deaths in one day. Their population is just 5 million. So that would be like California having 400 deaths in a day or UK having 600. It's mind-boggling. Surely the weather/storms have played a role. Louisiana, though, with a similar size and situation, has only 12 deaths (so in line with the rest of the nation).

Florida leads the US in new deaths (139), with a population about ⅓ that of UK or ½ of California. So you can see that local/regional issues in the US are very much involved in our overall numbers. Wisconsin is of course tallying up a lot of new cases, but they appear to be in the 20-55 group, which helps with the death numbers.

I posted the UK hospitalisation numbers previously but will post an update.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK

Last updated on Thursday 15 October 2020 at 4:39pm

Healthcare in

Latest available data
Patients admitted
Daily
792Value: 792 — Abstract information: Daily number of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital, reported on Sunday, 11 October 2020.
Click for additional details.

Total
150,378Value: 150378 — Abstract information: Cumulative total number of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital, reported on Sunday, 11 October 2020.
Click for additional details.


Patients in hospital
4,941Value: 4941 — Abstract information: Number of COVID-19 patients currently in hospital, reported on Tuesday, 13 October 2020.
Click for additional details.


Patients on ventilation
563

 

[SouthAussie]

SBM

I would hope that we protect and help care for the most vulnerable for as long as it takes. I'm praying that a vaccine is available as soon as possible, hopefully not years from now. JMO

I hope that the US would protect and care for all the people for as long as it takes. IMO

 

[24Roses]

Iowa numbers today: As of 10:00-11:00 a.m., we had 1,410 new confirmed cases for a total of 103,222 confirmed cases of which 80,114 had recovered (+1,065). 13 more were reported to have passed for a total of 1,505. 66 were hospitalized in the last 24 hrs. for a total of 482 (new daily high). There are 23,108 active positive cases. Oct. 15: Death toll surpasses 1,500, hospitalizations continue rising
Iowa COVID-19 Information

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I am not sure that people understand how many people are considered vulnerable.

It is said that in the UK, about one quarter of their population is considered vulnerable.

Translate that to the US population (because I cannot find any comment on the size of the vulnerable population there) and that would mean that 82,750,000 people would be considered vulnerable.

That is one heck of a lot of people to contain, protect, and tend to ..... and for how long?
"When herd immunity is reached" seems a very vague statement. How long would that take? Years?
The anticipated date for any vaccine is already being pushed further and further away.


In the UK, about a quarter of the population would be classed as vulnerable to Covid-19.
Why herd immunity strategy is regarded as fringe viewpoint

Yes, I don't think some do understand the numbers associated with vulnerable and high risk.

High-Risk Populations for Severe COVID-19 Infections in the United States | Think Global Health

"About one quarter of the U.S. adult population could be considered high risk for severe COVID-19 infections"

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30264-3/fulltext


"We estimated that 1·7 billion (UI 1·0–2·4) people, comprising 22% (UI 15–28) of the global population, have at least one underlying condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19 if infected"

 

[RANCH]

I hope that the US would protect and care for all the people for as long as it takes. IMO

Sure, so do I.

 

[SouthAussie]

Have you got a source for the 25% vulnerable relating to UK? That would be 16 million people. Seems high to me.

No, just the published comment that I already posted.

If you find the source maybe you would post it here?

 

[tresir2012]

I dont think the Tier system is on a par with the national lockdown. Retail will stay open even for those in "very high" risk, which at the mo is *just* Liverpool city area. At least last I looked. Greater Manchester should be but the mayor was resisting. The new system seems to focus on households mixing and hospitality. I'm in Tier 1, with most of England, and there are few hard hitting restrictions (unfortunately IMO).

Totally appreciate Wales is imposing more stringent measures.

Covid: What are the Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 lockdown rules?

ETA link. Which says more than half going into Tier 2 actually. London pop must be a big factor in that.

Llanelli is in lockdown. 30 miles from me. You can only leave for work. People from outside have been told not to go there to shop or visit grandparents. I dont know what tier it is but it is locked down. Pubs closed.

 

[BlueShoe]

Yipes. The tally is not quite complete, but on Worldometer there are 61,892 new cases of Covid-19 today in the U.S. This is truly frightening. I'm afraid this could be our government's "Let them eat cake" moment. MOO

 

[HongKongPhooey]

Llanelli is in lockdown. 30 miles from me. You can only leave for work. People from outside have been told not to go there to shop or visit grandparents. I dont know what tier it is but it is locked down. Pubs closed.

Sounds like Tier 3 with additional local measures.

Still flipping confusing!

 

[tresir2012]

No, just the published comment that I already posted.

If you find the source maybe you would post it here?

I guess it is over 65's plus anyone with an underlying condition.

 

[katydid23]

Yipes. The tally is not quite complete, but on Worldometer there are 61,892 new cases of Covid-19 today in the U.S. This is truly frightening. I'm afraid this could be our government's "Let them eat cake" moment. MOO

I think the percentage of deaths is much lower now though. Most of these new cases are younger patients that will most likely recover soon. JMO

 

[SouthAussie]

I guess it is over 65's plus anyone with an underlying condition.

Plus the vulnerable ethnic British people. This paper speaks to that, as well as stating that 1/4 of the white UK population is over 60 years old.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/Are-...COVID-19-than-others-V2-IFS-Briefing-Note.pdf

 

[RANCH]

I think the percentage of deaths is much lower now though. Most of these new cases are younger patients that will most likely recover soon. JMO

I think that the number of deaths should be considered first, followed by the number of hospitalizations and finally the number of people who have tested positive. JMO

 

[CoverMeCagney]

2.2 million English people (about 3%) are considered to be clinically extremely vulnerable. These are the ones who received letters months ago advising them to shield.

Coronavirus and shielding of clinically extremely vulnerable people in England - Office for National Statistics

 

[tresir2012]

Plus the vulnerable ethnic British people. This paper speaks to that, as well as stating that 1/4 of the white UK population is over 60 years old.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/Are-some-ethnic-groups-more-vulnerable-to COVID-19-than-others-V2-IFS-Briefing-Note.pdf

I just did a search and there are 12 million over 65's plus 3.8 million on PIP so that is probably how they came up with it. That would include all races.

 

[SouthAussie]

I think the percentage of deaths is much lower now though. Most of these new cases are younger patients that will most likely recover soon. JMO

CDC, in their latest "age" report says this ....


This report provides preliminary evidence that younger adults contributed to community transmission of COVID-19 to older adults. Across the southern United States in June 2020, the increase in SARS-CoV-2 infection among younger adults preceded the increase among older adults by 4–15 days (or approximately one to three incubation periods).

These findings have important clinical and public health implications.

Second, younger adults, who are more likely to have mild or no symptoms, can unknowingly contribute to presymptomatic or asymptomatic transmission to others, including to persons at higher risk for severe illness. Finally, SARS-CoV-2 infection is not benign in younger adults, especially among those with underlying medical conditions, who are at risk for hospitalization, severe illness, and death.

Increased prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among younger adults likely contributes to community transmission of COVID-19, including to persons at higher risk for severe illness, such as older adults.

Emphasis should be placed on targeted mitigation strategies to reduce infection and transmission among younger adults, including age-appropriate prevention messages, restricting in-person gatherings and events, recommending mask use and social distancing in settings where persons socialize,implementing safe practices at on-site eating and drinking venues, and enforcing protection measures for essential and service industry workers.

Given the role of asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission, all persons, including young adults, should take extra precautions to avoid transmission to family and community members who are older or who have underlying medical conditions.

Strict adherence to community mitigation strategies and personal preventive behaviors by younger adults is needed to help reduce their risk for infection and minimize subsequent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to persons at higher risk for severe COVID-19.

Changing Age Distribution of the COVID-19 Pandemic ...

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I hadn't realized that Chris Christie also got a monoclonal antibody - from Eli Lilly

Chris Christie says he was in ICU for 7 days battling Covid-19, urges Americans to wear masks

thanked his doctors and "the manufacturers of Remdesivir and the Eli Lilly monoclonal anti-body cocktail for giving me access to their extraordinary treatments."