Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #89

[I'm Just Here]

You know, to Corn-teen.

Toddler thoughts and talk, kind of cute!

 

[10ofRods]

From the above link:

“Covid-19 case rates nearly doubled in London over the past week, with almost 60% of these infections attributed to the new strain, according to government officials.“

(Wow.)

So, I’m still reading back here and catching up on all this “new strain business“, making some notes & trying to wrap my head around this.

This is the third time, all in intervals of a few weeks/months, that I recall a more contagious strain being mentioned.

Note to bump and watch Dr. Maria’s comments that @dixiegirl1035 posted / as soon as I heard about this UK strain my thoughts immediately went to what her comments will be:

As I’ve stated in an earlier post(s), Dr. Maria said a few months back, that the virus is constantly mutating, that this is normal, and that they were keeping a very close eye on all the mutations. At that time, there were already well over 5000 mutations, and I recall one, possibly two mutations that had evolved to become more infectious, but not more severe, which we discussed. I need to refresh on if those mutations were different from each other, and what the geographics and exact dates, etc. on the those were.

Now, it seems that South African scientists have just identified yet a new strain, which has three mutations, and is a similar, but not identical variant of the (new?) UK strain, both which are also described as being more infectious, but not necessarily more severe, with the exception of the one article with my comments bolded in red, which may or may not be correct (“..doctors have remarked....”):

I'm going to go with this quote (from CNN, who interviewed some virologists and geneticists):

<<Multiple experts in the genetics and epidemiology of viruses are noting that this one could be just a "lucky" strain that's been amplified because of a superspreader event; it could be the mutation somehow makes it spread more easily without causing more serious illness; or it could just be by chance.>>

IOW, there is no scientific evidence that this strain is in itself more dangerous or transmissible (same with the South African strain).

That shows the number of different strains in April. You can imagine how many more there are now. Unless and until actual geneticists and virologists note that there is something about the new proteins created by this single mutation found in Scotland (but originating in England), no one in the academic community is claiming that this is "more transmissible."

It just happened to arise in a particular population and is likely related to super-spreading events. If in fact this new mutation (now in Australia and Denmark, so it's too late to contain it to Britain) is more stable in the air or has some other characteristic that makes it "more transmissible" (it replicates faster in the lungs?) that needs to be demonstrated because that's how science works.

Merely noting one of thousands of variants and using it to study spread and transmission is not enough. England is in the throes of an upsurge in COVID and it's not surprising that one strain is more common than others. What has occurred now, though, is that UK is being shut off further from travel to the continent. Apparently, Scotland is reacting by toughening its border policies with England (despite the fact that the variant is already in Scotland). All of this is quite extraordinary as a precaution against a variant that may or may not be significantly different from the "G mutation" already documented.

 

[10ofRods]

I think it's important that other nations realise that only Tier 3 areas with a high percentage of the new variant detected have gone into the harsher Tier 4 rules.

Not all areas in Tier 3 (e.g. a vast proportion of northern England and the Midlands) have gone into Tier 4.

If the UK government had wanted to misleadingly use the variant as an excuse to backtrack on Christmas rules at this late stage, they would have put all Tier 3 areas into Tier 4 last night in my opinion.

It's only areas where this new variant is prevalent - London, and surrounding counties in the south east such as mine, Buckinghamshire, which is actually very rural - have been put into Tier 4.

That's not what I was saying. But, if most of Britain believes this new mutation is somehow more transmissible, then really they should put all areas into Tier 4, because it is certainly a mutation that is in wide circulation. This didn't happen, IMO, for the reasons I've cited (no one knows that it's really the case that it's more transmissible).

Nothing about this announcement or the response to it makes logical or scientific sense. It appears to be "erring on the side of extreme caution" (which I approve), but to make it sound as if there's actually a good scientific reason to do this...is odd. It's quite clear that people's behavior is a huge factor in transmission, it's not clear at all that there's a new, more dangerous mutation (other than the one discovered in April - and it took until July for the lab studies to show why that particular mutation was more dangerous).

We need the research. In the meantime, it sure does look as if UK believes the mutation originated within its own political boundaries (did it? how would UK-based/Scottish studies show that it didn't actually come from elsewhere?) Some nations have very little tracking of variations, others have a lot.

From the New York Times:

<<The estimate of greater transmissibility for the British variant — officials put the figure at 70 percent — is based on modeling and has not been confirmed by lab experiments, said Muge Cevik, an infectious disease expert at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland and a scientific adviser to the British government.>>

We need to know exactly how it spread, but we also need the same lab studies as in other cases where a variant seemed to explode upon the scene (most of the time, it's been human behavior - so far only 1 variant has been shown in the lab to be more stable and therefore more transmissible).

 

[Yesiamapirate]

My coworker just let me know she has Covid. Thank goodness we all work from home all the time.
She said she feels crummy. Last week the kids had a “cold”. It was just a cold so they tagged along as she Christmas shopped last week. The were finally tested and lo and behold all positive. Her comment to me? Thank goodness they got their Christmas shopping done.
No wonder this thing is spreading.
Sigh.

 

[drama_farmer]

My coworker just let me know she has Covid. Thank goodness we all work from home all the time.
She said she feels crummy. Last week the kids had a “cold”. It was just a cold so they tagged along as she Christmas shopped last week. The were finally tested and lo and behold all positive. Her comment to me? Thank goodness they got their Christmas shopping done.
No wonder this thing is spreading.
Sigh.

I really feel awful for the retail and service industry workers. They're encountering this same scenario multiple times a day, day after day. Imo

 

[Colorado303]

So, continuing my above post on all this “new strain business”, it occurred to me I may not be using the terms “strain” and “mutation” correctly / it also seems “variant” is a term to be used.

Are there different strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus circulating?
June 10, 2020

What is a virus ‘strain’?
When scientists use the word strain, they are referring to a genetically distinct virus lineage, distinguishable by one or more mutations from another strain. Strains may or may not be biologically (functionally) distinguishable from one another and some virologists use the term strain only for the former. Two strains would be biologically different if they elicited different responses from the human immune system, or if they varied in their transmission characteristics.

What are viral mutations?
When a virus infects a cell and begins making copies of itself, it starts by replicating its genetic information, which for the COVID-19 virus is encoded in an RNA molecule. More complex organisms have a variety of “proof-reading” mechanisms to ensure high-fidelity replication; however, these are less developed in RNA viruses where the process is particularly error-prone, leading to a relatively rapid accumulation of mutations over time. SARS-CoV-2 does carry some proof-reading enzymes and its mutation rate is lower than many other RNA viruses, such as influenza virus, norovirus and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

—-

Some highlighted notes:

June 15, 2020
COVID-19 Will Mutate — What That Means for a Vaccine

“More infectious

A new study from the Scripps Research Institute in Florida suggests the new coronavirus has mutated into a variant that’s more infectious.

The mutation — named “the D614G mutation” — occurred on the spike protein, the part of the virus that helps it bind and fuse to our cells. The D614G mutation makes it easier for the virus to infect our cells.

The Scripps researchers aren’t the first to identify the tiny mutation on the spike protein.

In March, researchers from the Los Alamos National Laboratory announced they detected the D614G mutation, and that it was likely responsible for most infections reported in Europe and the United States.

In total, the researchers identified 14 strains of SARS-CoV-2 and released their findings to help those working on vaccines and treatments.

That being said, the new dominant strain identified does seem to be more infectious in laboratory settings. Scientists are now trying to understand how the variation behaves in the body — which may be very different from lab settings.”

—

June 30, 2020
Mutated COVID-19 Viral Strain in U.S. and Europe 10 Times More Contagious than Original Strain | BioSpace

“The mutation does not appear to make the virus any more deadly than it already is, but it does appear to make it significantly more contagious. The original strain in China is dubbed D614, while the one found in the UK, Italy and North America by May is dubbed G614.“
—

July 16, 2020
Second Coronavirus Strain May Be More Infectious—but Some Scientists Are Skeptical

“The paper indicates that a single amino acid change from D (aspartic acid) to G (glycine) on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (which such viruses use to grab onto human cells) is the key to how infectious the pathogen is. “The spike protein has a critically important role in the biology of the virus,” says Bette Korber, a computational biologist at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and lead author of the new paper.

Korber and her colleagues came to this conclusion after employing multiple approaches to examine the two strains. First, they performed a statistical analysis that showed how the mutated virus—often referred to as the “G strain”—achieved dominance across multiple continents, outperforming the coexisting original version of SARS-CoV-2, or “D strain.” Then the researchers tested the amount of the virus in individuals with COVID-19 at the Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust in England. The results showed that the G strain produced more of the virus in the human body than the D strain. But the former did not lead to a higher hospitalization rate, meaning it apparently did not cause more severe illnesses. Lastly, the team members created “pseudotype” pathogens by embedding SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins, containing either D or G amino acids, into other disease-causing viruses...”

—

Aug. 3, 2020
The six strains of SARS-CoV-2
“Source:
Università di Bologna
Summary:
The virus causing the COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, presents at least six strains. Despite its mutations, the virus shows little variability, and this is good news for the researchers working on a viable vaccine.“
—

Sept. 8, 2020

“In April, Korber, Montefiori and others warned in a preprint posted to the bioRxiv server that “D614G is increasing in frequency at an alarming rate”1. It had rapidly become the dominant SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Europe and had then taken hold in the United States, Canada and Australia. D614G represented a “more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2”, the paper declared, one that had emerged as a product of natural selection.“
—

Oct. 30, 2020
Coronavirus mutation may have made it more contagious

“Source:
University of Texas at Austin
Summary:
A study involving more than 5,000 COVID-19 patients in Houston finds that the virus that causes the disease is accumulating genetic mutations, one of which may have made it more contagious. This mirrors a study published in July that found that around the world, viral strains with the same genetic mutation quickly outcompeted other strains.

A study involving more than 5,000 COVID-19 patients in Houston finds that the virus that causes the disease is accumulating genetic mutations, one of which may have made it more contagious. According to the paper published in the peer-reviewed journal mBIO, that mutation, called D614G, is located in the spike protein that pries open our cells for viral entry. It's the largest peer-reviewed study of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences in one metropolitan region of the U.S. to date.”

[...]

“A study published in July based on more than 28,000 genome sequences found that variants carrying the D614G mutation became the globally dominant form of SARS-CoV-2 in about a month.”

[...]

“Natural selection would favor strains of the virus that transmit more easily. But not all scientists are convinced. Some have suggested another explanation, called "founder's effects." In that scenario, the D614G mutation might have been more common in the first viruses to arrive in Europe and North America, essentially giving them a head start on other strains.“

—

SARS-CoV-2 mink-associated variant strain – Denmark
6 November 2020

“Since June 2020, 214 human cases of COVID-19 have been identified in Denmark with SARS-CoV-2 variants associated with farmed minks, including 12 cases with a unique variant, reported on 5 November. All 12 cases were identified in September 2020 in North Jutland, Denmark. The cases ranged in age from 7 to 79 years, and eight had a link to the mink farming industry and four cases were from the local community.

Initial observations suggest that the clinical presentation, severity and transmission among those infected are similar to that of other circulating SARS-CoV-2 viruses. However, this variant, referred to as the "cluster 5" variant, had a combination of mutations, or changes that have not been previously observed. The implications of the identified changes in this variant are not yet well understood. Preliminary findings indicate that this particular mink-associated variant identified in both minks and the 12 human cases has moderately decreased sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies. Further scientific and laboratory-based studies are required to verify preliminary findings reported and to understand any potential implications of this finding in terms of diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines in development. In the meantime, actions are being taken by Danish authorities to limit the further spread of this variant of the virus among mink and human populations.“

Nov. 13, 2020
Study: New Mutation Sped Up Spread of Coronavirus

“Compared to the original strain, people infected with the new strain -- called 614G -- have higher viral loads in their nose and throat, though they don’t seem to get any sicker. But they are much more contagious to others.“
—

Dec. 15, 2020
New coronavirus strain spreading in UK has key mutations, scientists say

“The new variant, which UK scientists have named “VUI – 202012/01” includes a mutation in the viral genome region encoding the spike protein, which - in theory - could result in COVID-19 spreading more easily between people.”

[...]

“As of Dec. 13, 1,108 COVID-19 cases with the new variant had been identified, predominantly in the south and east of England, Public Health England said in a statement.

But there is currently no evidence that the variant is more likely to cause severe COVID-19 infections, the scientists said, or that it would render vaccines less effective.“

—

Severe COVID variant detected in South Africa, health minister says

“Known as the 501.V2 Variant, it was identified by South African researchers and details have been sent to the World Health Organization, Zwelini Mkhize said in a statement.“

[...]

“The research team, led by Tulio de Oliveira, has shared its findings with the scientific community and alerted authorities in Britain, who have “studied their own samples and found that a similar mutation… was the variant that was driving their resurgence in London,” he said.”
—

@DrZweliMkhize
Dec 18
Karim: This new 501.V2 variant has become dominant in South Africa. This new variant has 3 mutations. #SARSCOV2MediaBriefing

South Africa identifies new coronavirus strain causing surge in cases

““The evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by this new variant,” Mkhize added.”

—

New Variant of SARS-CoV-2 Frequently Asked Questions - NICD
Dec. 19, 2020

“Q What is the new SARS-CoV-2 variant?
A This new variant of the virus was discovered through routine genomic surveillance of SARS-
CoV-2 performed by a network of laboratories around the country (Network for Genomic Surveillance South Africa, NGS-SA). The new variant has been identified in almost 200 samples collected from over 50 different health facilities in Eastern Cape, Western Cape and KwaZulu- Natal. The new variant is different from the others that were circulating in South Africa because it has multiple mutations (changes) in the spike protein – this is the very important part of the virus that binds to the receptor on the cells inside our body and that is also the main target for many of the antibodies produced during infection or after vaccination. Work is being done to understand what effect these mutations have on the behaviour of the virus and our body’s response to it - particularly whether it makes the virus spread more easily, whether it might lead to more severe COVID-19, and whether the virus can evade our immune response.

Q What is the geographical distribution of this mutation?
A The variant was first identified in Nelson Mandela Bay but has rapidly spread through the rest
of the Eastern Cape and to the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces. Testing in other provinces is being undertaken to understand the extent of geographical spread but it is likely that this variant has spread to other provinces too.”

[...]

Q Is this the same or different to the London variant?
A It is definitely not the same variant, but there are similarities as they both share the same change in the spike protein at the 501 position. What it does tell us is that if we do not control the spread of the virus then it is likely to evolve in similar ways in different parts of the world.”

I’ve said it before, but need to say again how amazing you are! Thank you for collecting all this info over the months and going back over it to help us make sense of all this.

 

[10ofRods]

I really feel awful for the retail and service industry workers. They're encountering this same scenario multiple times a day, day after day. Imo

Here in SoCal, they're saying grocery stores are a major vector. L.A. County had 45,000 new cases 2 days ago, and about 100,000 in 8 days.

L.A. County reports more than 100K new coronavirus cases in just 8 days amid fastest acceleration of infections | KTLA

Due to the recent Supreme Court decision, indoor church services are once again permissible.

 

[pocketaccent]

Photos from passengers onboard United fight show complete chaos among passengers | Daily Mail Online

Well, surprise surprise, a passenger lied when asked if he had symptoms of Covid-- well, said man gets very sick on the plane and other passengers come to his assistance, including performing CPR, but said man dies anyway. The article states the CDC has verified he did in fact have COVID--- So, said man and family knew they were putting all passengers at risk, but did they care? Of course they didn't, because ya know, they wanted to travel to where ever and they didn't give a fig about anybody else. That is about where we are in this country though hopefully most people would not do this: However, don't think for one minute that there are not other travelers with symptoms that are getting on those planes. I found the twitter comments interesting- at least one person who assisted this man now has Covid symptoms himself. Nice.

America is in deep trouble. Too many people just don't care. Here's an article about that EMT showing symptoms now.


EMT Gives CPR To Suspected Coronavirus Patient On LAX-Bound Flight, Now Feeling Symptoms

When Tony Aldapa saw the man in grave condition, he used his EMT training to try to save him by performing CPR, along with help from others.

“It was all kinda just second nature to see someone in a bad place you try to bring them out of the bad place,” Aldapa said. “There were three of us that were essentially tag-teaming doing chest compressions, probably about 45 minutes.”
...

Aldapa is now worried he has the coronavirus.

“Essentially I just feel like I got hit by a train,” he said. “I had a cough, my whole body still hurt, I had a headache.”
...

 

[Sillybilly]

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[beatrixpotter]

My coworker just let me know she has Covid. Thank goodness we all work from home all the time.
She said she feels crummy. Last week the kids had a “cold”. It was just a cold so they tagged along as she Christmas shopped last week. The were finally tested and lo and behold all positive. Her comment to me? Thank goodness they got their Christmas shopping done.
No wonder this thing is spreading.
Sigh.

It's really sadly driven home how self absorbed most people are. Everyone is concerned with themselves and their personal needs to the exclusion of others. I mean we are human so on some level it's not a surprise.

I guess what surprises me most about it is just how openly selfish and self absorbed people are being. They aren't even ashamed of the behavior. So many are just openly proud and belligerent over their rights to the exclusion of others. Or they are just totally lacking in awareness of how incredibly selfish it is that they are pleased to have been out while positive with Covid because at least they got their shopping done. :/

 

[GRT]

Photos from passengers onboard United fight show complete chaos among passengers | Daily Mail Online

Well, surprise surprise, a passenger lied when asked if he had symptoms of Covid-- well, said man gets very sick on the plane and other passengers come to his assistance, including performing CPR, but said man dies anyway. The article states the CDC has verified he did in fact have COVID--- So, said man and family knew they were putting all passengers at risk, but did they care? Of course they didn't, because ya know, they wanted to travel to where ever and they didn't give a fig about anybody else. That is about where we are in this country though hopefully most people would not do this: However, don't think for one minute that there are not other travelers with symptoms that are getting on those planes. I found the twitter comments interesting- at least one person who assisted this man now has Covid symptoms himself. Nice.

One of the tweets they published was identical to my thoughts -- why didn't the airline take his temperature?

Maybe they need to start making every passenger take a rapid test -- have them arrive earlier. On a plane like that, the air is recirculated constantly. How many more will have it now?

 

[margarita25]

Dec. 15, 2020
New coronavirus strain spreading in UK has key mutations, scientists say

“The new variant, which UK scientists have named “VUI – 202012/01” includes a mutation in the viral genome region encoding the spike protein, which - in theory - could result in COVID-19 spreading more easily between people.”

“UK reports new variant, termed VUI 202012/01
The United Kingdom reported a new variant, termed VUI 202012/01 (Variant Under Investigation, year 2020, month 12, variant 01).“

—

So, picking up with this UK strain business, it seems we can now legally mention the 202012/01 variant here on the thread per TOS, as it has officially been named a VUI.

 

[ilovewings]

One of the tweets they published was identical to my thoughts -- why didn't the airline take his temperature?

Maybe they need to start making every passenger take a rapid test -- have them arrive earlier. On a plane like that, the air is recirculated constantly. How many more will have it now?

I agree that they need to strengthen their screening policy-- though a lot of businesses
take temperature (like hospitals and doctor's offices), lots of people
with the virus dont have increased temps-- nevertheless it is better than nothing-
rapid testing would be better, but costly and time consuming-- clearly, taking
the word of passengers is not the best way to insure a passenger doesnt have
covid-- and think about the asymptomatic people boarding a plane!

 

[weepingangel]

Birx travels, family visits highlight pandemic safety perils
More at link
WASHINGTON (AP) — As COVID-19 cases skyrocketed before the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House coronavirus response, warned Americans to “be vigilant” and limit celebrations to “your immediate household.”

For many Americans that guidance has been difficult to abide, including for Birx herself.

The day after Thanksgiving, she traveled to one of her vacation properties on Fenwick Island in Delaware. She was accompanied by three generations of her family from two households. Birx, her husband Paige Reffe, a daughter, son-in-law and two young grandchildren were present.

 

[SouthAussie]

One of the tweets they published was identical to my thoughts -- why didn't the airline take his temperature?

Maybe they need to start making every passenger take a rapid test -- have them arrive earlier. On a plane like that, the air is recirculated constantly. How many more will have it now?

Definitely.

Cruise ships have had to stop. Cargo ships don't let their workers disembark at other ports. But airlines can just fly freely and spread the virus. Their requirements need to tighten up, a lot.

 

[MimosaMornings]

My coworker just let me know she has Covid. Thank goodness we all work from home all the time.
She said she feels crummy. Last week the kids had a “cold”. It was just a cold so they tagged along as she Christmas shopped last week. The were finally tested and lo and behold all positive. Her comment to me? Thank goodness they got their Christmas shopping done.
No wonder this thing is spreading.
Sigh.

Does she not know how to order online?
I basically cancelled Christmas this year, going to drink and probably post drunk ramblings on here.
JMO

 

[Colorado303]

Re: mutation versus strain
You all got me curious so I looked it up and picked an article that makes me think I can loosely understand

Mutation:
A mutation is just a change
Epidemiologists are interested in tracking mutations even if they don’t alter the protein, says Emma Hodcroft, a molecular epidemiologist at the University of Basel in Switzerland. “But that doesn’t mean that it’s a new strain or that it’s a virus that behaves differently.”

Strain:
The term “strain” is “used very, very loosely by most scientists,” Hodcroft says. “There isn’t really a strict definition of the word ‘strain,’” particularly when talking about viruses. Experts might simply be referring to viruses that aren’t genetically identical — almost like discussing different people.

“Strains,” “variants” or “lineages” are all terms researchers might use to describe viruses that have identical or closely related strings of RNA."


Is the coronavirus mutating? Yes. Here’s why you don’t need to panic | Science News
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid19-mutations-strains-variants

I am left thinking a mutation is a change and a strain is a lineage
But like I said up top, I only *think* I understand

My interpretation (which may be wrong) is a mutation is whenever the virus changes. In a single person the virus may mutate several times. Strains are caused by mutations and are generally considered “strains” when the mutated version starts spreading throughout the population. I think the terms may technically be interchangeable but common language use, all strains are caused by a mutation but not all mutations result in a strain.

 

[MimosaMornings]

I agree that they need to strengthen their screening policy-- though a lot of businesses
take temperature (like hospitals and doctor's offices), lots of people
with the virus dont have increased temps-- nevertheless it is better than nothing-
rapid testing would be better, but costly and time consuming-- clearly, taking
the word of passengers is not the best way to insure a passenger doesnt have
covid-- and think about the asymptomatic people boarding a plane!

The business travelers aren’t flying.
It’s bachelorette parties. Girls weekend.
Families. Pajamas and bedroom slippers.
Shower caps. Guys trip to Costa Rica.
Vastly different from pre-covid flights.

 

[Skigh]

Does she not know how to order online?
I basically cancelled Christmas this year, going to drink and probably post drunk ramblings on here.
JMO

Perhaps we need a thread for Christmas drunk ramblings. I certainly would be posting.

 

[SouthAussie]

New Zealand has reported no new Covid-19 cases for more than two weeks.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern told reporters she did "a little dance" when she was told the country no longer had any active virus cases.

"While we're in a safer, stronger position, there's still no easy path back to pre-Covid life, but the determination and focus we have had on our health response will now be vested in our economic rebuild," Ms Ardern said.

"While the job is not done, there is no denying this is a milestone. So can I finish with a very simple, 'Thank you, New Zealand'."

New Zealand lifts all Covid restrictions, declaring the nation virus-free
(International border will remain closed)