(*starting a new round of notes, trying to understand as a lay person why higher viral load is presently not attributed to increased disease severity wrt the latest variants.)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-variant-ex/explainer-the-new-coronavirus-variant-in-south-africa-are-concerns-justified-idUSKBN28Z0D
December 25, 2020
“It has also been associated with a
higher viral load, meaning a higher concentration of virus particles in patients’ bodies, possibly contributing to higher levels of transmission.
Between 80% and 90% of new cases in the country are carrying the mutant variant, according to health authorities.”
—
COVID-19: Does the infectious inoculum dose-response relationship contribute to understanding heterogeneity in disease severity and transmission dynamics? - NCBI - NIH
November 25, 2020
““For SARS, higher nasopharyngeal viral load correlated with proximity to the index patient, severity of disease, and amount of virus shed. High nasopharyngeal viral loads correlated with disease severity, poorer outcomes, and mortality also seen in MERS.“
—-
FTR, I am quite concerned about these new variants, and not just these specific variants, but also the ones that could emerge in the future. I hope we are not beginning to echo what happened in 1918. I think these new variants represent a scary potential. I hope they don’t turn out to be more severe. Again, if they don’t, it seems there is obvious potential that it can happen, the more time this virus is prevalent and has time to change.
—
I am interested in anything that has to do with viral load and disease severity going forward.
—
Eta:
SARS-CoV-2 viral load is associated with increased disease severity and mortality | Nature Communications
Oct. 20, 2020
Hmmm. So, if the UK and SA variants have higher viral loads, then why aren’t they more severe? Maybe they actually are more severe, idk.
—
The New Covid Variant in the UK: Questions and Answers - The New York Times
5 days ago — And in preliminary studies, doctors there have found that people infected with this variant carry a heightened viral load — a higher concentration of the virus in their upper respiratory tract.
*ok, so this in the upper respiratory tract...is it higher in the nose too?
Link to part 1
notes, which has some reference on the naseo wrt the first notable mutation, 614G:
Nov. 13, 2020
Study: New Mutation Sped Up Spread of Coronavirus
“Compared to the original strain, people infected with the new strain -- called
614G -- have higher viral loads in their nose and throat, though they don’t seem to get any sicker. But they are much more contagious to others.“
—
“BBC Video: “doctors are reporting more young people who are seriously ill”; also, per Matt Hancock, this new South Africa variant is highly concerning because it appears to have mutated further than the one discovered in the UK.“
source
IANAD, this is all way over my head. Point is, again, I am very concerned about the potential of these changes in this virus, both present and future jmo. I am worried about the potential for increased overall disease severity, particularly in children. Jmo.
