Coronavirus Global Health Emergency, 2019-nCoV #2

[dixiegirl1035]

8th Coronavirus Case Confirmed In U.S. In Massachusetts | NBC News
•Feb 1, 2020

Folks have posted about how airline travel projections have been used by researchers/epidemiologists as to where it might appear. Thanks! The one that I saw still haven't found/seen reposted. Sorry, I should have posted just for that map, but it was way over my head as to scientific jargon in the article. Anyway, it had a map of the US and expected cities. Yep, Boston was one of them. Also, IIRC two places that were on the list that haven't been hit yet are New York City and Houston Tx. There were a few others, but the projection had the places where all in the US have occurred!

 

[dotr]

https://nypost.com/2020/02/01/nyc-t...us-patient-as-confirmed-cases-soar-worldwide/
''Also on Saturday, scientists at Hong Kong University published research that projects the coronavirus may have infected as many as 75,815 people in Wuhan. The city of 11 million people has been on virtual lockdown for weeks to stem the spread of the disease.

Ominously, the mayor of Huanggang, a neighboring city to Wuhan, predicted a “significant increase” in confirmed cases will be announced Sunday and Monday, according to the Global Times, an English language news outlet published by the Chinese Communist Party’s official People’s Daily.

Between 600,000 and 700,000 people returned to Huanggang from Wuhan before the lockdown, the mayor said.''

''Thousands of Hong Kong hospital workers voted to strike starting Monday in an effort to pressure the government to close all borders with China to prevent the coronavirus from spreading.''

 

[Inthedetails]

Here’s where I’m at. If it can happen once at one market, then it can happen again at another market, moo.

Let's think that through.

The virus was in an animal and the virus mutated and jumped to a human - the animal virus can now live in a human host.

Seems unlikely, imo, that two or more markets would have an animal virus that mutated in exactly the same way.

I guess if the virus can jump back and forth between humans and the animals, then perhaps a person could carry the virus from one market to another, infect the animals there, and then the virus jumps to people at those markets. I don't think we know that about the virus, though - whether it can jump back and forth between humans and animals after it mutated to live in human??

What seems more likely to me is that the virus has been in the Chinese province where it originated for longer than what has been previously known, but it was spreading only locally at first, the situation was mismanaged ... and kept secret until the case numbers exploded. That's my working theory at the moment.

jmo

 

[dixiegirl1035]

What I'm really surprised at is that the medical community has been crickets as to the genome and mapping of the virus. By now, they should know if it's mutated in cases outside of China from the originals in China.I would think they would be allllllll over that. I'm trying to remember how long/what date the typing was shared with the world. Jeeez, it's like a WS case where we need a timeline as things are moving so fast.

Why isn't that been reported on? Hmmm, perhaps we at WS will find before MSM does

 

[margarita25]

BBM / Rsbm:

Seems unlikely, imo, that two or more markets would have an animal virus that mutated in exactly the same way.

This is something I’ve been wondering about. How “rare” is such a mutation, or “jump”, under these circumstances? Can lightning strike twice or more here in different locations under similar variables?

Here’s another question:

We now know that asymptomatic
transmission occurs — well, do we know for a fact that all people who get the virus will eventually become symptomatic? In other words, could it be like HIV or staph in the sense that some people can be “carriers” and never actually get sick?

 

[Inthedetails]

What I'm really surprised at is that the medical community has been crickets as to the genome and mapping of the virus. By now, they should know if it's mutated in cases outside of China from the originals in China.

Why isn't that been reported on? Hmmm, perhaps we at WS will find before MSM does

Interesting question! Now I'm curious.

jmo

 

[LadyL]

Is a paper mask really going to make a difference? You should also "glove up".

it's what they gave me to wear during SARS . I wasn't immuno- compromised then but I was working in a hospital
my husband gets the heavy-duty ones at work and they get 'fitted' for them too

 

[Inthedetails]

BBM / Rsbm:

This is something I’ve been wondering about. How “rare” is such a mutation under these circumstances? Can lightning strike twice or more here in different locations under similar variables?

Here’s another question:

We now know that asymptomatic
transmission occurs — well, do we know for a fact that all people who get the virus will eventually become symptomatic? In other words, could it be like HIV or staph in the sense that some people can be “carriers” and never actually get sick?

I'm also curious about the asymptomatic cases. Will the virus run it's course with no symptoms whatsoever - but can be spread during that time? It would be a very smart virus that could do that because it would be a sneaky way for the virus to survive

Eek. Don't like thinking about that.

jmo

 

[margarita25]

What percent of the Chinese population is currently known to be infected?

Equation / Formula:
%/100=IS/OF

Variables:

OF=Entire Population of China
IS=Number of sick
X=%

This may take some time to find the variables to plug in, but making a note as it is SO easy to get distracted with all these different articles!

 

[dixiegirl1035]

What I'm really surprised at is that the medical community has been crickets as to the genome and mapping of the virus. By now, they should know if it's mutated in cases outside of China from the originals in China.I would think they would be allllllll over that. I'm trying to remember how long/what date the typing was shared with the world. Jeeez, it's like a WS case where we need a timeline as things are moving so fast.

Why isn't that been reported on? Hmmm, perhaps we at WS will find before MSM does

ETA found it
On Jan. 7, the institute’s scientists gave the new coronavirus its identity and began referring to it by the technical shorthand nCoV-2019. Four days later, the team posted the genetic sequence of the new virus on a database of sequences of nucleotides, the molecules that are basic units of DNA.
As New Virus Spread, China’s Old Habits Delayed Fight

 

[Inthedetails]

What percent of the Chinese population is currently known to be infected?

%/100=is/of

Variables:

Of=Entire Population of China)
Is=Number of sick
X=%

This may take some time to find the variables to plug in, but making a note as it is SO easy to get distracted with all these different articles!

Keep in mind that over half of the cases in all of China are in one province, where the virus originated. It has spread to every province, but not evenly.

jmo

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Haven't seen in the news, but a flight has gone out from Wuhan today. To India. And yes, no mistake it is radar verified

.


Air India (AI) #1349 ✈ FlightAware

 

[margarita25]

Keep in mind that over half of the cases in all of China are in one province, where the virus originated. It has spread to every province, but not evenly.

jmo

Excellent point to consider when thinking about this formula.

In that case let’s start with X% of the cases are in Hubei, so....

I’m so glad we have our little group here.

-/

Haven't seen in the news, but a flight has gone out from Wuhan today. To India. And yes, no mistake it is radar verified

. View attachment 229208
View attachment 229209

Air India (AI) #1349 ✈ FlightAware

I read evacuations were trying to get underway for Indian citizens for a while now.

Could a domestic flight be carrying these evacuees? They’ve been talking about getting them out for a while. I hadn’t read about them arriving yet.

Looking at link, thanks for all your information.

ETA: @dixiegirl1035 , I am DYING now to know what the deal is with that flight from Wuhan to Delhi. I am googling still not seeing anything.

ETA2: See post re: this below

 

[gregjrichards]

Coronavirus: Don't re-use handkerchiefs, warn health chiefs

Handkerchiefs should not be reused, health chiefs have suggested in a new campaign to stamp out coronavirus in Britain, as it emerged that the first victim was a university student.

New NHS adverts tell the public to always carry tissues that can be immediately binned and to wash their hands or use sanitiser gel afterwards.

Coronavirus: Don't re-use handkerchiefs, warn health chiefs

I’m very sorry the known death toll has risen above 300 now.

 

[margarita25]

Coronavirus outbreak: 324 return from Wuhan, test negative; another batch arrives today | India News - Times of India

ETA / BBM:

““Six Indians were not allowed to board the flight at Wuhan by Chinese authorities, as they were running fever. In all, 211 students, 110 people working in the region and three minors boarded the B747 ‘Ajanta’ which took off from Wuhan at 1.40am and reached Delhi at 7.26am,” said an AI official.

While everyone tested negative in the initial round of screening, high alert and precaution have been advised. For the next two weeks, all the returnees who were taken to two isolation facilities will undergo tests twice a day, where their pulse, temperature and any fluctuations in the immunity system will be monitored.”

ETA2: Wither I’m crosseyed or these times are different:

Air India (AI) #1349 ✈ FlightAware

H
landing atIndira Gandhi Int'l -DEL
SUN 02-FEB-202005:36AM CST
(6 hours 31 minutes late)
SUN 02-FEB-202009:20AM IST
(6 hours 45 minutes

Maybe this is the other flight? The article mentions two.

 

[mickey2942]

Coronavirus evacuations: CDC orders 14-day federal quarantine for Americans flown to California

Not to be alarmist, but every single fictionalized pandemic starts with people being contained on military bases, and eventual martial law enforcement.

Maybe I need to have a "Pandemic Film Festival".
The movies that predicted an outbreak like coronavirus - CNN

 

[Bravo]

Satellite photos show the deserted streets of Wuhan as the city enters its 8th day of quarantine

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Keep in mind that over half of the cases in all of China are in one province, where the virus originated. It has spread to every province, but not evenly.

jmo

You've got a great memory!

In China, 60.5% of all cases since the start of the outbreak have been reported from Hubei Province. The remaining 39.5% of cases have been reported from 33 provinces, regions and cities.After Hubei Province, the second largest number of cases has been reported from ZhejiangProvince(599 cases) https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...20200201-sitrep-12-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=273c5d35_2

Also from link
Notable Epidemiological Events Reportedin the Last 24 Hours

• In France, for the first time outside China, a healthcare worker was diagnosed as being ill with 2019-nCoVacute respiratory disease. The health worker treated two patients who were later identified as probable cases.
  
• The first instance of third-generation human-to-human transmission outside China has been identified,in an individual who was exposed to a confirmed case from the cluster in Bavaria, Germany.
• For the first time, a case was exported from a country other than China: a patient was identified in South Korea following their exposure in Japan to a confirmed case.
  
• In the last 24 hours, additional instances of human-to-human transmission outside China were reported:in Japan,a tour guide who is part of the same cluster of Japanese cases who had contact with tourists from Wuhan; in Germany,a case that is part of the cluster in Bavaria; and in Thailand, a taxi driver who had no travel history to China.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I just had a thought that I've not seen in MSM.

This all happened and the city was shut down DURING the Chinese New Year vacation time when everyone went home (I've heard it's a la Thanksgiving here in the states?). Anyhow, working adults and their kids go to visit gramma/family etc, and since no one is allowed to leave, they won't be able to go back home to get to work. I know that many companies are giving another week vacation, but how long can this last?

I'm just shaking my head analogizing this to how many in US leave town during Thanksgiving to go home in the US. How the h*ll is this going to play out? Folks who invest in the Shenhai stock market that has been closed for over a week (opens tomorrow night US time, Monday am their time) are gonna be hard hit due to businesses projections and their effects of being closed.

 

[Inthedetails]

You've got a great memory!

Thanks, but the truth is my memory isn't that great....it's just that I've been following this case like crazy and watching the numbers closely.


jmo