It appears right now that the info from just January 24th, the number of cases in BOTH the mainland and those that have been diagnosed outside of mainland China has doubled on the average ~ every 2 to three days, give or take. I'm not doing statistics, just an eyeball of the Johns Hopkins data that we are all following.
If that hold true, the folks that have come out of mainland china which were supposedly asymptomatic to other countries and is having the same doubling rate of infection so far.... it means that that curve for those outside of Mainland China is about 15 days behind the Wuhan, and would continue to follow the doubling number IF they weren't isolated and quarantined, which they are. MOO, just a stab here IANAD.
So, that should drop off once folks get out and don't transmit afterwards (assuming more coming out will get the disease after they land as were asymptomatic when traveled)
Here's my data and eyeball to MOO about approximate doubling every three days... gets iffy towards the beginning, but wanted to share anyway. And oh yeah, what percentage of these folks are hospitalized? A 1,000 bed hospital for Wuhan looks pretty insignificant in a short amount of time if 63% of mainland is in Wuhan and the requirements for hospitalization are more than a paltry percentage.
DATE Mainland Outside Mainland China
2/1Fri 14,300 173
1/31 11,200 153
1/30 9,700 118
1/29 7,700 105
1/28 6,000 87
1/27 4,400 64
1/26 2,700 57
1/25Fri 2,000 40
1/24 916 25
data started here on the Johns Hopkins site..
Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS but I'll just continue to 1/2 the numbers every 3 days to go back (assuming testing in beginning in Wuhan wasn't widespread... heck, may not be now but just a stab I'm taking. The doubling in the beginning in Wuhan within 1-2 days in the beginning, was that due to start up testing getting widespread? It's just for discussion and visual, as I'm a visual person.
1/23
1/22 1000
1/21
1/20
1/19 500
1/18
1/17
1/16 250
1/15
1/14
1/13 125
1/12
1/11
1/10 62
1/9
1/8
1/7 31
1/6
1/5
1/4 15
1/3
1/2
1/1
12/31 8
Also, I see now what the WHO definition of a contact is at
Global Surveillance for human infection with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
Recommendations for follow-up of contacts
Definition of contact
A contact is a person involved in any of the following:
- Providing direct care for 2019-nCoV patients, working with health care workers infected with novel coronavirus, visiting patients or staying in the same close environment of a 2019-nCoV patient.
- Working together in close proximity or sharing the same classroom environment a with 2019-nCoV patient
- Traveling together with 2019-nCoV patient in any kind of conveyance
- Living in the same household as a 2019-nCoV patient within a 14‐day period after the onset of symptoms in the case under consideration.
Monitoring of contacts of probable and confirmed cases (annex 1)
- Contacts should be monitored for 14 days from the last unprotected contact.
- Contacts should self-limit travel and movements. Monitoring by public health authorities can be done through household or virtual visits or by telephone to check for symptoms.
- Any contact who becomes ill and meets the case definition becomes a suspect case and should be tested.
- Any newly identified probable or confirmed cases should have their own contacts identified and monitored.
