Coronavirus Global Health Emergency, 2019-nCoV #2

[dixiegirl1035]

All below source CNN.com

1 hr 39 min ago Eight coronavirus cases in Bavaria "stable" From CNN’s Stephanie Halasz in London

All eight people diagnosed with coronavirus in Bavaria, Germany, are in a stable condition, the Bavarian Health Ministry said in a statement Sunday. Germany has confirmed its eighth case of coronavirus on Saturday. The patient, a 33 year-old man from Munich, works at the same company as six of the previously known coronavirus cases in Germany. The eight person with the virus in Germany is a child of one of the people diagnosed earlier, the ministry said. The detection was possibly due to a test campaign for all employees at the the firm, the statement said.

1 hr 28 min ago A plane carrying Europeans evacuated from Wuhan is en route to France From CNN’s Barbara Wojazer in Paris

A second French plane carrying European citizens from Wuhan will land in Istres, France, on Sunday, the Belgian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. Some passengers will disembark at Istres and be placed in quarantine before the plane continues on to Melsbroek air base, in Belgium. Belgian passengers will be taken care of in Belgium, and Dutch, Danish, Czech and Slovak citizens will be repatriated to their own countries, the ministry said, calling it a “prime example of European cooperation.” The plane was chartered by France, and is part of the European Crisis Management Mechanism. Five Czechs and two Slovaks are on board the plane, according to the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs. They will be flown from Belgium to the Czech capital of Prague on a government plane. British citizens are also thought to be on this flight. UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said Sunday that 11 Britons who failed to leave Wuhan last week are now on a French flight returning to the UK Sunday.

7 hr 10 min ago France helps Mexican citizens flee Wuhan

France is helping evacuate 10 Mexican citizens from Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province and the city where the coronavirus outbreak started. The 10 Mexican nationals are first flying to France after being examined to confirm they don't have symptoms, Mexico’s Foreign Ministry and Health Ministry said in a joint statement Saturday. In France "they will follow the health protocols established by the authorities of that country." After that, the group will return to Mexico, the ministries said.

 

[Alyce]

Re quarantine time, I was wondering this also. I’m not aware whether they are permitted to mix with each other whilst quarantined or kept separately. I know I read the UK families were housed together. But as you say, if one tests positive within the 14 days surely it has to start again for the rest of the people in contact with them?

the UK group will not be able to avoid meeting each other in that accommodation...also, with the new ones arriving today/tomorrow, presumably the clock is reset for them back to 14 days

 

[Alyce]

DBM

 

[badgersmythe]

Hunt for 480 Wuhan travellers 'LOST' in Britain


Hunt for 480 Wuhan travellers 'LOST' in Britain | Daily Mail Online

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Okay, here's my question that's on my mind today....

What's up with the death rate with this virus? There are a large number of deaths in Hubei province, where the virus originated. The current reported deaths in Hubei is 294 (though the number is likely much higher).

However, in the entire rest of China, there are only 10 deaths to date. Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces each have reported over 600 cases each, but zero deaths.

While Hubei has about 60% of the virus cases within China, it has 98% of the reported deaths.

Just seems odd that other places are not experiencing a similar rate of death from the same virus. Any ideas about that? Just mismanagement within Hubei when the virus first struck??

jmo

Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

Totally OT, but Happy Groundhogs Day to USA folks. Six more weeks of winter!

As to your question about rates. Agree with your figures. MOO 294 deaths/9074 tested positive is a 3.2% mortality rate in Wuhan. From what I've read there may be two major reason MOO (IANAD) #1, in some videos I've seen and readings, the testing is hard to get for some folks, so perhaps more people get to a bad situation and in the hospital before they are documented. In other words, there are a hell of a lot of folks that are positive and are not documented. #2, perhaps it takes many days of sickness before demise and more lag time.

Using the same source and numbers as you, there are 5,227 verified cases in mainland China and 10 deaths, so that is a 0.2% mortality rate.

I'm stumped as to how to answer your question as I said above, I am not a doctor. (IANAL either)

Perhaps others have ideas to add?

 

[Inthedetails]

As to your question about rates. Agree with your figures. MOO 294 deaths/9074 tested positive is a 3.2% mortality rate in Wuhan. From what I've read there may be two major reason MOO (IANAD) #1, in some videos I've seen and readings, the testing is hard to get for some folks, so perhaps more people get to a bad situation and in the hospital before they are documented. In other words, there are a hell of a lot of folks that are positive and are not documented. #2, perhaps it takes many days of sickness before demise and more lag time.

Using the same source and numbers as you, there are 5,227 verified cases in mainland China with 5,226 infections and 10 deaths, so that is a 0.2% mortality rate.

I'm stumped as to how to answer your question as I said above, I am not a doctor. (IANAL either)

Perhaps others have ideas to add?

I think your #1 and #2 theories are solid and likely part of what is happening there. Still there is probably more to it, but...what?

It will be a complicated explanation, imo, if one is ever discovered for the differing death rates. But it's going to bug me until we find out more.

And, of course, fingers crossed that death rates remain as low as possible everywhere.

jmo

 

[What if...]

I think your #1 and #2 theories are solid and likely part of what is happening there. Still there is probably more to it, but...what?

It will be a complicated explanation, imo, if one is ever discovered for the differing death rates. But it's going to bug me until we find out more.

And, of course, fingers crossed that death rates remain as low as possible everywhere.

jmo

The same thought has been on my mind as well, and I agree with @Inthedetails 2 assessments.
My main concern with the death rate is that it currently appears to be a slow, but steady progression. I’ll be keeping a close eye on the death to recovered ratio over the course of the next week as I believe it will be very telling as to which direction this is heading.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I think your #1 and #2 theories are solid and likely part of what is happening there. Still there is probably more to it, but...what?

It will be a complicated explanation, imo, if one is ever discovered for the differing death rates. But it's going to bug me until we find out more.

And, of course, fingers crossed that death rates remain as low as possible everywhere.

jmo

Here is more info today's WHO daily update in PDF, and a PDF of the "rules" they have put out for how to do the surveillance for countries. It might explain some. And really shows that novel cases outside of Wuhan are really new compared to the incubation since early December within Wuhan.

I've also done screen shots as to Date of Onset of Symptoms (for those outside mainland, as China info is not gonna be good info like this iykwim) and Date of Postive Test vs. Travel History FYI




https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...20200202-sitrep-13-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=e20f3317_2

Global Surveillance for human infection with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

The same thought has been on my mind as well, and I agree with @Inthedetails 2 assessments.
My main concern with the death rate is that it currently appears to be a slow, but steady progression. I’ll be keeping a close eye on the death to recovered ratio over the course of the next week as I believe it will be very telling as to which direction this is heading.

Yep, the world will indeed be following such. Again, the cases that were taken out and quarantined will be the best information. It was stated amongst a lot of the health stuff I've read that China just didn't document the way that WHO wanted/needed them to for surveillance and knowledge. As said by Jodi Arias, what a waste, what a huge waste.

 

[Bravo]

Situation for Canadian trapped in Wuhan growing dire, says daughter

 

[What if...]

Coronavirus cases predicted to grow exponentially, as first fatality outside of China is reported — The Washington Post

Quotes from the article - BBM

“This news came as a new study by University of Hong Kong scientists, [published in The Lancet,](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext) said the outbreak could be even worse than it appears and could get dramatically worse over the next week or two.

They found that as many as 75,815 people in Wuhan had been infected with the coronavirus by Jan. 25, based on an assumption that each infected person could have passed the virus onto 2.68 others. It also said that epidemic was doubling every 6.4 days.

If the virus was spreading at a similar level around the country, “we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1-2 weeks,” the scientists wrote.”

 

[Tadpole12]

In other words, there are a hell of a lot of folks that are positive and are not documented. #2, perhaps it takes many days of sickness before demise and more lag time.

Valid assumption.

Hunt for 480 Wuhan travellers 'LOST' in Britain

Hunt for 480 Wuhan travellers 'LOST' in Britain | Daily Mail Online

Wrt Chinese "Government advice to avoid spreading the deadly virus:
Taking children to school"
Odd advise, why not self? quarantine the entire family, rather than getting someone to take children to School?

 

[margarita25]

Hunt for 480 Wuhan travellers 'LOST' in Britain


Hunt for 480 Wuhan travellers 'LOST' in Britain | Daily Mail Online

From the above link:

“A hunt is underway to find hundreds of people who flew from coronavirus-hit Wuhan to Britain who are unaccounted for.

Officials are trying to trace 480 travellers who arrived in the country nine days ago from the city in China.

It comes as the UK government launched a huge advertising campaign telling people how to stop the spread of the killer virus.”

As of Sunday morning, more than 14,300 people have been infected across China, the majority in and around Wuhan

The UK government launched a huge advertising campaign (pictured) telling people how to stop the spread of the killer virus

The advice the government issued

 

[dotr]

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
Total Confirmed
14,628

Total Deaths
305

Total Recovered
348

''The map and dashboard reveals that more people have died from the virus than have recovered from it, It is powered by raw data from the Word Health Organisation (WHO), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), and official statistics from China.''

''However, earlier this week Professor Dr Sazaly Abu Bakar, director of the Tropical Infectious Diseases Research and Education Centre (TIDREC) at Universiti Malaya, said 2019-nCoV had a case fatality ratio (CFR) of only about three per cent.

''The recovery time for simple flu is usually one to two weeks, while the British Lung foundation says recovery from pneumonia can take up to six months, depending on its severity and the general health and age of the patient. However, in most cases is says pneumonia patients should be fever free after a week, and their chest will feel better and produce less mucus within a month''

 

[Inthedetails]

Here is more info today's WHO daily update in PDF, and a PDF of the "rules" they have put out for how to do the surveillance for countries. It might explain some. And really shows that novel cases outside of Wuhan are really new compared to the incubation since early December within Wuhan.

I've also done screen shots as to Date of Onset of Symptoms (for those outside mainland, as China info is not gonna be good info like this iykwim) and Date of Postive Test vs. Travel History FYI

View attachment 229287

View attachment 229288
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...20200202-sitrep-13-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=e20f3317_2

Global Surveillance for human infection with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)



Yep, the world will indeed be following such. Again, the cases that were taken out and quarantined will be the best information. It was stated amongst a lot of the health stuff I've read that China just didn't document the way that WHO wanted/needed them to for surveillance and knowledge. As said by Jodi Arias, what a waste, what a huge waste.

The other weird thing that comes to mind when I look at the stats is how the virus was running through Hubei in large numbers before it became internationally known, and it has spread outside of Hubei - but not in huge numbers. So....what was preventing the spread during those early weeks, before it was public knowledge?

What the heck was going on in Hubei that it seemingly spread so fast and was so deadly, but only within the province for the most part? Just seems like it would've spread more than it actually has and caused the same percentage of deaths elsewhere.

Was the the initial population in Hubei especially vulnerable, more so than where the virus has spread? If so, why?

jmo

 

[margarita25]

Thailand Sees Good Result from Using Drug Mixture on Coronavirus
February 2, 2020

“Thailand found good results after using a mix of two antiviral drugs on a Chinese patient who was in a serious condition with the novel coronavirus, according to a health ministry briefing.

The patient’s condition significantly improved within 48 hours after the medical team decided to use antiviral drugs originally used for HIV and influenza in his treatment, Kriangsak Attipornwanich, a doctor at the state-owned Rajavithi Hospital who is treating the patient, told reporters at the Public Health Ministry briefing Sunday. The patient’s test result also turned negative, the doctor said.”

 

[Inthedetails]

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS


''The map and dashboard reveals that more people have died from the virus than have recovered from it....
''However, earlier this week Professor Dr Sazaly Abu Bakar, director of the Tropical Infectious Diseases Research and Education Centre (TIDREC) at Universiti Malaya, said 2019-nCoV had a case fatality ratio (CFR) of only about three per cent.

Snipped.

I also wonder if perhaps reporting "recovered" data is not required, and is just happening on an ad hoc basis rather than systematic, ykwim? That's just a guess.

jmo

 

[What if...]

The other weird thing that comes to mind when I look at the stats is how the virus was running through Hubei in large numbers before it became internationally known, and it has spread - but not in huge numbers. So....what was preventing the spread during those early weeks, before it was public knowledge?

What the heck was going on in Hubei that it seemingly spread so fast and was so deadly, but only within the province for the most part? Just seems like it would've spread more than it actually has and caused the same percentage of deaths elsewhere.

Was the the initial population in Hubei especially vulnerable, more so than where the virus has spread? If so, why?

jmo

Just my personal opinion here...
I think Hubei was SO OVERWHELMED so quickly, that their reported numbers will never be accurate and should eventually be removed from the equation as more data is obtained from other regions.
IF there is any purposeful underreporting coming from China, I don’t believe it is at the hands of the medical personnel on the front lines. I would imagine that providing accurate reports is not at the top of their priority list.
I’ll also add that MOO - there may have been underreporting from China when this thing started, but at this point in the ball game, there would be no point in further deception. The cat is out of the bag so to speak, and the damage is already done.
China has a long road of recovery ahead of them - both medically and financially.

 

[dotr]

'You'd better go back home': Drones with loudspeakers patrol Chinese streets as coronavirus spreads
‘YOU’D BETTER GO BACK HOME’

According to video posted by state-run media outlet the Global Times, drones could be seen hovering above residents in rural areas of China, broadcasting messages reportedly sent in real-time by a human.

"Yes, auntie, this is the drone speaking to you," says a voice echoing from a drone hovering above an elderly woman in the video.

“We’ve been telling people to stay at home, but you still wander outside. Now a drone is watching you.”

The voice scolds the woman for venturing outside without wearing a mask and tells her to return home and wash her hands.

In a separate video, a man can be seen loading items into a cart when a voice from the drone urges him to return to his home.

“Don’t laugh. Now get on your cart and go home immediately,” reads the translation on the video. “You didn’t even wear a mask. What are you looking at? Go home now!”

 

[What if...]

Thailand Sees Good Result from Using Drug Mixture on Coronavirus
February 2, 2020

“Thailand found good results after using a mix of two antiviral drugs on a Chinese patient who was in a serious condition with the novel coronavirus, according to a health ministry briefing.

The patient’s condition significantly improved within 48 hours after the medical team decided to use antiviral drugs originally used for HIV and influenza in his treatment, Kriangsak Attipornwanich, a doctor at the state-owned Rajavithi Hospital who is treating the patient, told reporters at the Public Health Ministry briefing Sunday. The patient’s test result also turned negative, the doctor said.”

Awesome news !! - here’s hoping they can replicate the outcome !!

edited for spelling

 

[Tadpole12]

CNN

"The eight person with the virus in Germany is a child of one of the people diagnosed earlier, the ministry said."

Children of China must be scared.