Coronavirus Global Health Emergency, 2019-nCoV #2

[Tadpole12]

Canada:

Ontario coronavirus investigations declining, official says

Ontario coronavirus investigations declining, official says

February 3, 2020

 

[Pi Thoughts]

Tim McLean is desperate to get back to his family in Australia.

He is currently living in Ezhou, in the east of the Hubei province of China where the coronavirus has broken out.

"People are getting more stressed now, you know the numbers are rising, foods getting shorter, there's less shops open everyday," he told A Current Affair.

The Hubei province has been in a government enforced lockdown since January 23.

Tim is able to leave his house to go the shops. He wears two face masks and gloves to try and protect himself from the deadly virus. His temperature is also checked by health officials daily.
What it's like to be at ground zero: Australians in China speak out

 

[Tadpole12]

Coronavirus: Wuhan family struggles to get confirmation of infections and receive treatment

proof of infection,
hospitalization certificate

 

[Tadpole12]

I think the numbers from Hubei are almost useless except that they are HUGE. Comparing the deaths in Hubei to the number of diagnosed cases does not give accurate info, imo, except to note the date rate is HIGHER than elsewhere. Something really weird happened in Hubei and my hunch is the population was simply different in the beginning than it is now - more of an underclass, elderly, uneducated, chronically ill, etc. and once the virus started to spread outside that group, the numbers started "counting."

Total speculation. My opinion....at the moment, subject to change as we (with hope) learn more.

jmo

yes, valid socio-cultural considerations wrt disease patterns
China's aged population,
extended family,
extended house holds
hygiene practices
few own cars and must walk or use public transit
etc

plus the mass migration of Chinese citizen for New Years festivities

***
ETA: google, average age of communist party in China
Age and turnover of membership
The average age of members in the 18th Central Committee is 56.1 years.

 

[Tadpole12]

Man,
I was freaking last night when I watched Fang Bin's video of his arrest.

"Let us in"
"We just want to take your
temperature"

Fang Bin:
"Who are you?!!
"Tell me who you are!"

Boom!
door pushed in.

 

[Ohmeohmy]

Just saw this forum from another one..
My husband works for a large tech company. We have lived and traveled in and out of Mainland China as this is the area he supports and has a team. We havent been into China in one yr mostly because of the Trade Deal..Anyway, we are supposed to be in Spain next week for
Mobile World Conference. (300K atten this) We are in a holding pattern now if we will even go. This morning this large tech company cancelled a large meeting in Las Vegas. 3k were to attend . Reason given was they wanted ALL employees there and will resest to a different time. Asia makes up a large portion of attendees. MOO

 

[Tadpole12]

Canadians will begin to leave Wuhan on Thursday

Yeah!
I was hoping for atleast by end of week, err given the logistics.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

China's deadliest day of coronavirus outbreak 12:06 PM EST, Tue February 04, 2020

China's National Health Commission said Tuesday that the death rate from the virus stands at 2.1% nationwide. The figure is higher for Hubei province, of which Wuhan is the capital, at 3.1%. A spokeswoman for the commission said 80% of victims were over the age of 60 and 75% had some form of underlying condition....

Japanese health authorities said around 2,500 passengers and some 1,000 crew members are on board the Diamond Princess, which returned to Yokohama after stops in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Japanese prefectures of Okinawa and Kagoshima. At least seven people on board said they feel ill, though none have been confirmed to have the virus.... The cruise ship will remain in Yokohama port overnight, city officials announced Tuesday, with no one allowed to leave the vessel while officials test the group.

Authorities in China have already announced a 1.2 trillion yuan ($173 billion) injection into Chinese markets to help maintain "reasonably ample liquidity" in the banking system and keep currency markets stable....

Chinese health officials said that the average time needed for a patient to recover is nine days. However, in Hubei province, the average recovery time is currently at 20 days because there are more severe cases.

The death rate has also been higher in Hubei because of a lack of hospital beds and large number of cases creating delays in treatment....

Much more at link

 

[dixiegirl1035]

 

[Tadpole12]

This spreadsheet with prediction forecast is spot on so far:

Analyse prédictive 2019-nCoV

The death toll is going to ramp up.

NB:
La 'marge d'erreur', the margin of error, increase in predictive values

 

[BlueShoe]

China's deadliest day of coronavirus outbreak 12:06 PM EST, Tue February 04, 2020

China's National Health Commission said Tuesday that the death rate from the virus stands at 2.1% nationwide. The figure is higher for Hubei province, of which Wuhan is the capital, at 3.1%. A spokeswoman for the commission said 80% of victims were over the age of 60 and 75% had some form of underlying condition....

Japanese health authorities said around 2,500 passengers and some 1,000 crew members are on board the Diamond Princess, which returned to Yokohama after stops in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Japanese prefectures of Okinawa and Kagoshima. At least seven people on board said they feel ill, though none have been confirmed to have the virus.... The cruise ship will remain in Yokohama port overnight, city officials announced Tuesday, with no one allowed to leave the vessel while officials test the group.

Authorities in China have already announced a 1.2 trillion yuan ($173 billion) injection into Chinese markets to help maintain "reasonably ample liquidity" in the banking system and keep currency markets stable....

Chinese health officials said that the average time needed for a patient to recover is nine days. However, in Hubei province, the average recovery time is currently at 20 days because there are more severe cases.

The death rate has also been higher in Hubei because of a lack of hospital beds and large number of cases creating delays in treatment....

Much more at link

Wow. So it is generally 9-20 days for recovery. No wonder everyone is so worried. I have not heard that any of the U.S. patients who were hospitalized have been released yet (but maybe I missed it). I can see how hospitals could easily become overwhelmed as the numbers increase and people have to be kept for this length of time. Yikes! MOO

 

[Tadpole12]

"Nobody believes the official figures represent the true scale of the outbreak
And there is growing concern that no cases have yet been reported from Africa
where there are weaker public health systems"

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I'm out doing real life and doing Errands. I just went to Ace Hardware.

They had a new display right as you walk in the front door. Of masks.

Again, there have been no verified cases in my state or city , but this is new since last week when I was here. Perhaps these are for painters. ?

 

[dotr]

by Terry Glavin rbbm. lengthy article.
Feb 4, 2020
Beijing's credibility deficit makes the coronavirus crisis much worse - Macleans.ca
''Tuesday’s official count of 20,438 confirmed cases is 3,235 more than Monday’s count.

But there’s little reason to believe that the Chinese government’s reporting comes close to the reality on the ground. According to an analysis published last week by the British medical journal, the Lancet, roughly 75,000 people were likely already infected by the Wuhan virus by Jan. 28.''

''The first case of the new coronavirus was discovered Dec. 8, but it took the Wuhan Health Commission weeks to publicly report it. And even after Jan. 11, the commission was still insisting that the virus could not be passed between people, even though dozens of cases had been confirmed by then.

During those first critical weeks, references to the sickness in Wuhan were ruthlessly expunged by China’s state censors from popular platforms like WeChat. It was only after the crisis had blown wide open that the authorities allowed social-media users to mention it.''

''The Communist Party organs Global Times and Peoples Daily both published photographs of what was purported to be a gleaming brand-new hospital magically constructed within days in Wuhan. The hospital in the picture turned out to be a photograph of a modular apartment complex in Qingdao.''

''On Monday, Canada earned the dubious distinction of being contrasted with the United States and thanked and congratulated by China’s foreign ministry. Ottawa earned its pat on the head by following the example of China-compliant states in Southeast Asia and allowing flights from China to continue, with airport screening awaiting arrivals. But while the United States, Australia and South Korea were allowed to quickly evacuate their citizens from Hubei, Canada waited for days on Beijing’s approval to evacuate more than 300 Canadians stuck there. (Ottawa finally got the green light on Tuesday for a flight that wouldn’t depart for another two days.)''

 

[Ohmeohmy]

I'm out doing real life and doing Errands. I just went to Ace Hardware.

They had a new display right as you walk in the front door. Of masks.

Again, there have been no verified cases in my state or city , but this is new since last week when I was here. Perhaps these are for painters. ?

View attachment 229864

This is actually where I bought some last week to put in my carry on to travel with.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I keep seeing WeChat, and never heard of this before. Is it like facebook, or some app that folks in the US use? What is it analagous to?

per wikipedia (yeah, I know folks here hate this as a source, but for this was my go to)

WeChat is a Chinese multi-purpose messaging, social media and mobile payment app developed by Tencent. It was first released in 2011, and became one of the world's largest standalone mobile apps in 2018, with over 1 billion monthly active users.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

It was posted upthread about the Aussies going home, it appears the plane did finally get clearance today and is in the air to homeland.



Air New Zealand (NZ) #1942 ✈ FlightAware

IIRC, they are going to Christmas Island for quarantine, yet the flight plan is to Auckland. I've seen before in following flight aware in the last two weeks, that their flight path sometimes changes. The green lines are radar verified I now know, and the white ones are projected. I'll follow as again, I heard the flight was going to Christmas Island. Perhaps they are going to Auckland and then going to be transferred as this is a big as* plane to land there and no runway to support such a large plane? dunno

Be safe my Aussie down under friends! (Ha, folks down there turn their maps upside down and they are at the top of the world)

The Boeing 777 is a long-range wide-body twin-engine jet airliner developed and manufactured by Boeing Commercial Airplanes. It is the world's largest twinjet and has a typical seating capacity of 314 to 396 passengers, with a range of 5,240 to 8,555 nautical miles (9,704 to 15,844 km).

 

[gregjrichards]

Boy, eight, becomes the third person to be diagnosed with coronavirus in Queensland after travelling to Australia with a Chinese tour group

Boy, eight, becomes the third person to be diagnosed with coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

I really hope this young man recovers.

 

[gregjrichards]

There is a heartbreaking article and video on the Daily Mail website of a Chinese lady crying and chasing after a private ambulance taking her Mother’s body to the crematorium. She was not allowed to say goodbye to her Mum because of concerns she too would catch the virus. It is a devastating and absolutely horrendous situation.

 

[dotr]

Officials in Hong Kong are using wristbands to track families that are under Wuhan coronavirus quarantine
''Public health officials in Hong Kong said they plan to use wristbands to track people placed on home quarantine after they returned from China's Hubei province, the center of the coronavirus epidemic.

Those who evade the mandatory quarantine risk being tracked by the police, facing up to six months in jail, and paying a fine of $641, the South China Morning Post reported Monday''.

''According to the report, Hong Kong said it had 500 wristbands ready to use for the at-home quarantines, and that 30 families had been selected to receive the wristbands. Government officials said the wristbands do not use GPS but would be connected to a smartphone required to remain connected in a person's home''

''China gave a rare admission of fault, admitting 'deficiencies' in its response to the Wuhan coronavirus that has now infected more than 20,000 people

Wuhan is scrambling to turn sports stadiums and exhibition centers into makeshift coronavirus hospitals to fight the spread of the virus''