Logical_Inference
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The accident.
Peter Madsen' story about an accident might seem plausible at first (strictly from a theoretical standpoint). It's technically possible a 140lbs iron hatch would crack a skull if it slammed down on it. However, the only way to enter/exit through such a hatch would be to open if fully, so the weight is resting on the deck (otherwise you would have to hold 140lbs while you enter/exit). There is no lock mechanism to hold the hatch open; the weight is enough. The picture below shows the deck hatch open (I do not have a picture of the conning tower hatch, but they are identical).
https://imgur.com/a/zu2uv
Peter Madsen has told two versions of this story. One is that he slipped and dropped the hatch, the other that hatch slammed for unspecified reasons (ship movement is implied). The hatch cannot hold itself in the halfway position. If would either fall shut, or fall fully open. The only way Peter Madsen's claim could be true, is if he opened it fully and climbed through, then lifted and held the hatch while Kim Wall climbed up the ladder. The only reason anyone would do this is probably to slam it over someones head. My guess is that either he actually did this (slammed it over her head on purpose), or the hatch played no role in Kim Wall's death.
The prosecution didn't reveal any result from forensic investigation of the hatch. Neither did they reveal if they looked into previous hatch accidents (has it ever just slammed shut? if it can kill someone it has likely injured people before).
From yesterdays hearing this is how I read the case. Peter Madsen had for some time entertained violent fantasies (of a sexual nature). A witness claimed she felt they had intensified lately. I don't think Peter Madsen specifically planned to kill Kim Wall, but he likely had fantasies about killing someone in UC3 Nautilus (if the tubes used to weigh down the torso came from his workshop, he would have cut them and placed them in the submarine earlier). He had contacted a woman out of the blue (she and her friend had spontaneously been invited for a dive two months earlier, but neither knew Peter Madsen in any way), and asked if she wanted to go for a dive (two days before sailing out with Kim Wall). I believe he enjoyed toying with the idea of killing someone and getting away with it, but that he (probably) thought it was pure fantasy and under control (this isn't an uncommon start for rapists and murderers). During the trip with Kim Wall he lost control and killed her spontaneously (fulfilling the fantasy he had nurtured for some time). There is a saying in the military: No battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy. From the moment he killed Kim Wall, Peter Madsen had little idea what to do. He might have gone through the scenario in his head before, but it probably bore little resemblance to the actual act of killing. Whatever plan he thought he had must have been dropped. Otherwise he wouldn't have sailed around for so long even the maritime rescue services were looking for him (he was missing for more than 12 hours). Rather than having a cunning plan, Peter Madsen was/is making it up as he goes along. Yet, for some reason he cannot bring himself to admit to dismembering Kim Wall (even if it would negate the main piece of circumstantial evidence for murder). This might be because he doesn't want people to see him as someone who could chop up a human body. The psychological evaluation will likely reveal that Peter Madsen has an inflated sense of himself (and a very low view of others). Peter Madsen probably still think he will get away with it,and showed signs of annoyance when the prosecution asked to weak points in his story (Especially anything sexual related to Kim Wall).
Note about the "buried at sea" story. While we can all agree his story doesn't constitute a burial in any way, there is a bit which seemed to be overlooked. If we follow Peter Madsen's story, he became suicidal and decided to end his life by drowning in UC3 Nautilus. Peter Madsen claims he didn't feel Kim Wall deserved to be entombed with him in the submarine. Of course the story makes little sense when considering the dismemberment, but in his mind it was almost a noble act and it explains why he dumped the body (not to hide it, but so it shouldn't be lost and forgotten in a submarine wreck). Needless to say it makes little sense, but it's important to his story.
Some of what you write is probably right. But I do not think he was noble in the burial-act. His statement said that he didnt want a dead person in his boat. He did not say that he didnt want Kim as dead in his boat. I think he has detached himself totally from her, as if he didnt know her at all and wasnt responsible for her dead.
About the hatch, I seem to recall that there was some rumor about that the police couldnt get the hatch open, so that they had to cut it open to get in to the submarine. I am not sure what that could mean, other than he somehow had locked it when he sank the boat. Like he didnt want anyone to go there.
I do not think that it was spontanious, but I agree with that his plan probably didnt match reality so he had to do a rethink, hence that he laid down to sleep ( = think)