Maybe I'm slower than others but I've finally worked out what all the legal dispute is regarding Eventualis and perhaps sharing my layman interpretation may help:
- If I want to kill A but kill B instead by mistake, then this in the past wasn't a valid defence against murder as the intent to kill is being transferred from one person to another ("transfer of intent"). This though is no longer the case UNLESS if when B dies instead of A there was at least a small % chance that when I went out to kill A there was a chance I'd kill B. If that's the case, I am convicted of murder (dolus eventualis).
- Masipa rules out premeditated and Dolus Directus (direct murder) as she believes OP thought there was an intruder (or that's the only 'reliable' evidence left in her eyes and so has to).
- Thus, as OP kills Reeva (B) instead of intruder (A) then he still gets murder ("Dolus Eventualis") as there was a CHANCE that either A or B would die no matter what story you go with.
- Well, Masipa says this can't be the case as how could he carry intent to kill Reeva when he thought she was in bed.
- This is flawed as it only accounts for B (Reeva) and ignores the fact that even though it wasn't B, there was still a chance (which brings intent) to kill A (intruder) so his thought of Reeva in bed is irrelevant and so the test is flawed in its limit to B.
BUT THEN..
- Masipa includes the "didn't intend to kill anyone behind the door, let alone Reeva, as the deceased was in bed". So people and a couple of articles think she's covered her bases BUT she hasn't as the only reasoning she's given for the 'anyone behind the door' is the "deceased being in bed" which is still irrelevant to person A (intruder) and only includes B. In fact, her reasoning for the culpable homicide seems to provide the necessary reasoning needed to PROVE there was intent carried for A. Either way, there is a giant chasm of judgement missing on the chance of A being killed during her Eventualis test.
- And on top of this, OP's contradictory and ambiguous defences have excluded him from a valid PPD defence which would at least ADMIT intent against A but deem it lawful intent which would resolve all the above problems. However, Masipa herself has thrown this defence out so it leaves only Eventualis as option on table.
Anyway, just thinking aloud, sorry if late to the party on this one!