fundiva said:
For one thing, you just said there was no census, now you're telling me to look at a census. Make up your mind please. Are you a mathematician? Do you know how to write an equation to determine these kinds of issues? I think not. Until you can show me you have figures that prove otherwise, I think I will go with the proven. The mathmeticians are much smarter than I am when it comes to determining the odds and I'm sure they checked the history of names in the region.
Mathematicians are easy to misquote and misues their statistics. I do understand these equations, and how they are frequently used to 'prove' anything, especially when some filmmaker or non-mathematical person tries to use them to find what they want to see.
For instance - the odds that there is a poster, who is agnostic, who happened to be a poster on this board, is left handed, happens to be named Susan on another board - that's about 1 in 100 for agnostic, 1 in 10 for lefty, 1 in 300 for regulars on the Internet who happen to post here (very optimistically), 1 in 40 for the name Susan - hmm, that makes a 1 in 100*10*300*40 - a 1 in 12,000,000 chance I exist! But here I am.
I could well believe, with how common the names are, that there's a 1 in 100 odds that a tomb containing 4 people would have a Jesus, Joseph, Mary, and Mary. That's not bad odds at all to find maybe several tombs like this - 1 out of 100 will have this combo - just by chance. But when you ask for partial odds, you get bad odds. The odds that it's bible Jesus et al, buried there, when you take into account the fact that isn't where they lived, when you take into account that this is a middle to upper class tomb, which doesn't fit family circumstances, etc. - the odds that this Jesus, Joseph, Mary, Mary is the biblical one is pretty darn skinny!