Ebola outbreak - general thread #3

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Lyra500 said:
Whilst the maximum incubation period for Ebola is three weeks, closing borders for 3 weeks cannot guarantee that the outbreak is over because the disease will still be spreading within the affected countries.

For that approach to work, the borders would have to be shut until three weeks after the last documented person or people had had contact with Ebola and remained disease free - until we get the outbreak under control, that might as well be forever.

Closing borders without tackling the outbreak on the ground in the three affected countries with a massive response seems very unlikely to work because until we do that, there is nothing to suggest that people will stop getting infected.
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Honestly and with all due respect not closing the border seems less likely to help anything.. We now know other countries are doing that as well cause it's just smart.. We can still help with the medical end via military transport and 3 k troops are out to do that also.. Other than that we really can't do a lot more anyway.
 
Lyra500 said:
Thank you.

I don't think this particular article has been posted.

I kind of hope that people might read it and cut Mr Duncan some slack. I do not believe he is a bad man and I don't think his coming to the US was a devious plan - the dates just don't add up.
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I agree to an extent but then why does Liberia plan to prosecute for lying on his airport forms?
 
popsicle said:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/12/health/ebola-airborne/
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Thank you for this link popsicle. Really interesting article.

This is why I keep banging on about border closures not being the answer. Whilst they might be comforting for people outside West Africa in the short term, they will not deal with this crisis.

We have to stop the virus spreading - really we do. The risk of Ebola becoming airborne is small - but it is there and gets greater the longer the virus is allowed to spread from human to human.

But some of the nation's top infectious disease experts worry that this deadly virus could mutate and be transmitted just by a cough or a sneeze.

"It's the single greatest concern I've ever had in my 40-year public health career," said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "I can't imagine anything in my career -- and this includes HIV -- that would be more devastating to the world than a respiratory transmissible Ebola virus."

Osterholm and other experts couldn't think of another virus that has made the transition from non-airborne to airborne in humans. They say the chances are relatively small that Ebola will make that jump. But as the virus spreads, they warned, the likelihood increases.

Every time a new person gets Ebola, the virus gets another chance to mutate and develop new capabilities. Osterholm calls it "genetic roulette."
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SweetT said:
I agree to an extent but then why does Liberia plan to prosecute for lying on his airport forms?
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I think that was a kneejerk reaction to be honest. They felt it made Liberia look bad.

Everyone wants someone to blame.

The situation in Liberia is appalling. The authorities there may well feel that a scenario where a seriously ill pregnant woman is given a wrong diagnosis, turned away from several medical facilities and basically left to die does not reflect on them too well. Add to that, the failure to diagnose her condition at any point and the resultant transmission of the infection to a significant number of neighbours and family members, several of whom are now dead - far better to deflect any accusations of inadequate and appalling care against them by accusing Mr Duncan of lying on his form.

That is my take on things.

JMOO
 
Lyra500 said:
I think that was a kneejerk reaction to be honest. They felt it made Liberia look bad.

Everyone wants someone to blame.

The situation in Liberia is appalling. The authorities there may well feel that a scenario where a seriously ill pregnant woman is given a wrong diagnosis, turned away from several medical facilities and basically left to die does not reflect on them too well. Add to that, the failure to diagnose her condition at any point and the resultant transmission of the infection to a significant number of neighbours and family members, several of whom are now dead - far better to deflect any accusations of inadequate and appalling care against them by accusing Mr Duncan of lying on his form.

That is my take on things.

JMOO
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That makes sense.. I also think they have way more problems to deal with right now to worry at prosecuting Duncan.. He's most likely not going to make it... If he started having symptoms on the 25 or 26 and the folks in Liberia took 10 days before they died or got symptoms I'd say we should be getting to the ten day mark with his family here in the US this week.. Give or take a few days.
 
Lyra500 said:
Thank you.

I don't think this particular article has been posted.

I kind of hope that people might read it and cut Mr Duncan some slack. I do not believe he is a bad man and I don't think his coming to the US was a devious plan - the dates just don't add up.
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He gets ZERO slack. He lied.
 
SweetT said:
That makes sense.. I also think they have way more problems to deal with right now to worry at prosecuting Duncan.. He's most likely not going to make it... If he started having symptoms on the 25 or 26 and the folks in Liberia took 10 days before they died or got symptoms I'd say we should be getting to the ten day mark with his family here in the US this week.. Give or take a few days.
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I agree that his prognosis seems pretty grim from the very minimal statements the hospital are making.

I also agree about the government (and indeed the people) of Liberia having bigger and far more terrifying fish to fry right now.

That was part of the reason I cannot agree with the insinuation that there will be scores of Liberians all planning their 'healthcare' trips to the US.

Firstly, as one of the poorest countries in the world, very few of them would have anywhere near enough money for an air ticket. Secondly, even if they could afford one air ticket, what about the rest of the family? Thirdly, quite a few parts of Liberia do not even have electricity - so how on earth would anyone outside of the immediate vicinity even know about Thomas Duncan - let alone his ill fated trip to America? Finally, if Mr Duncan's efforts to get a visa are anything to go by, anyone with Ebola would be either dead or recovered long before they got a visa.
 
CNN talking about air flights to and from West Africa..........step by step.........closing air travel..............honesty can't be trusted
check passports where you have been in the last month. Our borders are porous, we have to much commerce........
some of what they said.

Duncan MAY be getting experimental drugs now...........more after commercial
 
SStarr33 said:
He gets ZERO slack. He lied.
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I want to agree with you. He lied and he should not have. It's hard to be sympathetic. But as humans, we are to have compassion. Can I put myself in his shoes? I'm not condoning the lie. I would never condone the lie !!!!! But supposing I was on an Africa safari , trip of a lifetime, and got exposed to this. Knowing my chance of survival there was almost zero and my chance of survival here was much , much better. I would love to be full of honor and integrity and say no way would I lie on that form. But really with a literal and figurative gun to my head, would I lie ? I cannot answer that. I think many of us can say we would do x, y or z in a certain set of circumstances. But until we are in that situation, how can you be so sure. What if it was my child who were exposed and not me? Would I lie to protect my kid? Would I risk others dying to save my own child?
So , yeah, I'm very upset about the lie and even MORE so by the chain of events once he arrived to Dallas and became ill. It's a bad scene from every angle.
 
SCHMAE said:
I want to agree with you. He lied and he should not have. It's hard to be sympathetic. But as humans, we are to have compassion. Can I put myself in his shoes? I'm not condoning the lie. I would never condone the lie !!!!! But supposing I was on an Africa safari , trip of a lifetime, and got exposed to this. Knowing my chance of survival there was almost zero and my chance of survival here was much , much better. I would love to be full of honor and integrity and say no way would I lie on that form. But really with a literal and figurative gun to my head, would I lie ? I cannot answer that. I think many of us can say we would do x, y or z in a certain set of circumstances. But until we are in that situation, how can you be so sure. What if it was my child who were exposed and not me? Would I lie to protect my kid? Would I risk others dying to save my own child?
So , yeah, I'm very upset about the lie and even MORE so by the chain of events once he arrived to Dallas and became ill. It's a bad scene from every angle.
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He lied to the hospital too. The first lie at the airport is somewhat understandable, the second one, to me, is evil.
 
Governor Executive order to create a task force on infectious disease.
 
SStarr33 said:
He lied to the hospital too. The first lie at the airport is somewhat understandable, the second one, to me, is evil.
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JMO but it seems quite strange that he would go to the hospital ER the first time for just abdominal pain, unless he suspected ebola...which also to me indicates knowledge.
 
Governor -Many of the circumstance can only be tackled at the federal level.
 
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