Ebola outbreak - general thread #8

[SteveS]

Let's say we had someone with active ebola who was refusing quarantine. How do you suggest we round them up? Tranquilizer dart?

Clearly, the chance of surviving ebola, and keeping from exposing family and friends, hinges on quick treatment when symptoms show up. You seriously think a person who came down with ebola wouldn't be rushing to the nearest hospital the very first instant that symptoms showed up? To me, that makes no sense to even use as the basis for what-if's. Those who are "at risk" are aware and undoubtedly super vigilant, just as we all would be.

 

[CARIIS]

...a look back through history reveals outbreaks so expansive—so deadly—that they essentially changed the course of history. Below are some of the deadliest outbreaks and pandemics in history.



Black death
global population was an estimated 450 million, at least 75 million are believed to have perished throughout the pandemic, with some estimates as high as 200 million.


Spanish flu: left the global population decimated—with a mortality rate as high as one in five and an estimated one-third of the world population afflicted, as many as 50 million people are believed to have died.



HIV
,
Sub-Saharan Africa alone was home to 22.9 million cases,
with one in five adults infected. About 35.3 million people were believed to have HIV in 2012.
http://www.rwjf.org/en/blogs/new-public-health/2013/12/the_five_deadliesto.html

 

[jjenny]

Clearly, the chance of surviving ebola, and keeping from exposing family and friends, hinges on quick treatment when symptoms show up. You seriously think a person who came down with ebola wouldn't be rushing to the nearest hospital the very first instant that symptoms showed up? To me, that makes no sense to even use as the basis for what-if's. Those who are "at risk" are aware and undoubtedly super vigilant, just as we all would be.

Nurse in Spain who got Ebola wasn't diagnosed for a week. She survived but she was in critical condition for while.

 

[Detective Klimpt]

Let's say we had someone with active ebola who was refusing quarantine. How do you suggest we round them up? Tranquilizer dart?

Excellent point and one that I was just about to ask. A precedent is about to get set here. The politicians' rules may be extreme or inappropriate. Kaci probably is not contagious. At this point, those things are not important. What matters is that Kaci is totally ignoring rules/guidelines imposed by those in authority. This should never be allowed to happen!! I just read where the Maine Governor was more or less backing down and trying to get Kaci to do a blood test and/or agree to self guarantine (not got to public places, etc.) but those negotiations have broken down. Kaci wants no quarantine whatsover..period.

I imagine what will happen is that things will go on as there are now, with her doing what she darn well pleases and eventually the 10 days will be up and it will be a moot point.

 

[chipmunk]

What is a symptom? Dr. Spencer had fatigue for several days prior to getting a fever. Fatigue is listed as one of symptoms of Ebola. So was he then symptomatic for several days prior to getting a fever or not?

Fair question, concern. General common fatigue, tiredness is something we all get. With ebola fatigue is described as severe and usually sudden.
It's similar to a bad flu, utterly exhausted, drained, listless. To be completely objective Spencer reportedly said he had fatigue and exhaustion a day or two before he went running. But then he apparently felt better or ok enough to go running a day or so later. The fatigue is a matter of degree and whether or not additional symptoms are present.

Medical personnel coming back are trained to understand the symptoms and be alert for them.

 

[Inthedetails]

They are dreadfully sick. But some of them still will travel, like Patrick Sawyer did when he flew to Nigeria.

Yes, if someone hides symptoms and manages to travel, it will be difficult to stop them as long as they are able to hide their symptoms. Sawyer was sick on flight and was detained because of that. There are many "if" situations that are uncontrollable. That's true about ebola and about many other situations in life.

 

[Detective Klimpt]

Clearly, the chance of surviving ebola, and keeping from exposing family and friends, hinges on quick treatment when symptoms show up. You seriously think a person who came down with ebola wouldn't be rushing to the nearest hospital the very first instant that symptoms showed up? To me, that makes no sense to even use as the basis for what-if's. Those who are "at risk" are aware and undoubtedly super vigilant, just as we all would be.

BBM. Check the past documented information. Duncan did not want to go to the hospital the 2nd time. Louise's daughter pretty much insisted upon it. Healthcare workers probably would be vigilant about taken the temperature daily and go to the hospital when it spiked. What about African visitors? You think they are taking the temperature daily? We were very, very lucky with Duncan that only two people got ebola from him.

 

[CARIIS]

before they started using PPE thats key as is: took him to the hospital he was activly ill and as experts have stated the sicker the more contatious so that reinforces what we are being told!!

To the people who saying Mr. Duncan didn't infect anyone before the two nurses. Maybe we got lucky with Mr. Duncan.
On the other hand Patrick Sawyer in Nigeria infected medical workers before they started using PPE and several diplomats who took him to the hospital.

 

[Lyra500]

People who are ill with Ebola feel truly awful - the pain is dreadful by all accounts - why would they need 'rounding up'. What on earth do people think they would be doing apart from feeling like ***** and desperately wanting someone to make it better?

People do not go from non-contagious to highly contagious in half an hour - what are people basing their fears on?

Please could someone provide a link to any statements from Kaci or her lawyer suggesting that she is:

1. Not monitoring her temperature twice daily in line with protocol
2. Refusing to go to hospital should her temperature rise beyond the threshold

Thank you

 

[annahanna]

When someone has active ebola, from what I understand, they are dreadfully sick. I don't think it would be difficult to "round them up." You would't have to chase them on a bicycle ride, for example.

Dr Spencer ran 3 miles, went bowling, and dined in a restaurant after traveling on several subway lines the day before he was hospitalized and tested positive for Ebola.

 

[SStarr33]

Clearly, the chance of surviving ebola, and keeping from exposing family and friends, hinges on quick treatment when symptoms show up. You seriously think a person who came down with ebola wouldn't be rushing to the nearest hospital the very first instant that symptoms showed up? To me, that makes no sense to even use as the basis for what-if's. Those who are "at risk" are aware and undoubtedly super vigilant, just as we all would be.

Again, Patrick Sawyer and to a lesser extent, Dr. Spencer

 

[SteveS]

BBM. Check the past documented information. Duncan did not want to go to the hospital the 2nd time. Louise's daughter pretty much insisted upon it. Healthcare workers probably would be vigilant about taken the temperature daily and go to the hospital when it spiked. What about African visitors? You think they are taking the temperature daily? We were very, very lucky with Duncan that only two people got ebola from him.

Yes, absolutely.

There may have been luck involved with getting Duncan diagnosed, but the process has changed considerably since then, in large part because of the lessons learned by what happened with him.

EVERYONE from WAfrica, even a visitor, is tracked and monitored twice-daily for symptoms, for 21 days from their entry into the US. So yes the temp is tracked continuously. There are no Duncans out there anymore, anonymously coming from a risk country and not being on the radar of health officials.

 

[nrdsb4]

Let's say she is incubating right now. At what point in the course of the disease would it be best for a good Samaritan to avoid touching her if she was bloody and in an accident?

An EMT wouldn't be touching anyone who is bloody without taking Universal Precautions. A Good Samaritan would be well within their rights not to put unprotected hands on a bloody person because of the other blood borne diseases which could put them at risk, regardless of whether or not the person had a past exposure to ebola.

 

[BingoBongo]

"Where has anyone in the last 200 years been locked up to prevent from spreading a disease, when they have neither the disease nor have ever been anywhere close to having been exposed?

Maine. 2014.

So who knows what they'll do next?"


Typhoid Mary infected over 50 people, 3 died. She was quarantined twice, the first time she made promises she did not keep, hence the 2nd quarantine.

We (and other countries) have criminally prosecuted people for intentionally passing on HIV.

Maine arrested a man who refused to take his TB drugs and forced him into treatment.

An arrest warrant was issued for a Santa Barbara, CA man due to his refusal to take treatment for drug-resistant TB.

So far, no one has been shot, and unless there is a horrific accident or the zombie apocalypse begins ;-) I doubt anyone is going to be doing any shooting in that regard.

 

[CARIIS]

Oh how I wish I could come back 100 years from now & see what the history books have to say about all of this.

.." In 2014 the United States Media Created Unnecessary and Widespread Hysteria"

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Inthedetails]

Dr Spencer ran 3 miles, went bowling, and dined in a restaurant after traveling on several subway lines the day before he was hospitalized and tested positive for Ebola.

Spencer was in the early stages and sought early treatment. The original question was about someone in active stages who didn't seek treatment.

 

[Inthedetails]

.." In 2014 the United States Media Created Unnecessary and Widespread Hysteria"

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

While ignoring all other problems.

 

[SStarr33]

Yes, absolutely.

There may have been luck involved with getting Duncan diagnosed, but the process has changed considerably since then, in large part because of the lessons learned by what happened with him.

EVERYONE from WAfrica, even a visitor, is tracked and monitored twice-daily for symptoms, for 21 days from their entry into the US. So yes the temp is tracked continuously. There are no Duncans out there anymore, anonymously coming from a risk country and not being on the radar of health officials.

We have GPS's on them?

 

[BingoBongo]

An EMT wouldn't be touching anyone who is bloody without taking Universal Precautions. A Good Samaritan would be well within their rights not to put unprotected hands on a bloody person because of the other blood borne diseases which could put them at risk, regardless of whether or not the person had a past exposure to ebola.

And yet, nurses who were specifically caring for those with ebola, and wearing what was thought to be enough precautionary equipment, still caught it.

An EMT, in an emergency situation, is at risk.

As for good samaritans, bless them, but their actions are driven by urgent need and willingness to help...how many of them are going to be thinking in terms of not catching something when in that moment?

 

[BingoBongo]

Yes, absolutely.

There may have been luck involved with getting Duncan diagnosed, but the process has changed considerably since then, in large part because of the lessons learned by what happened with him.

EVERYONE from WAfrica, even a visitor, is tracked and monitored twice-daily for symptoms, for 21 days from their entry into the US. So yes the temp is tracked continuously. There are no Duncans out there anymore, anonymously coming from a risk country and not being on the radar of health officials.

Really? You can guarantee that?

Two comments from people much wiser than I:

"The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance - it is the illusion of knowledge."

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled."