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There were 12 infant abductions nationwide in 2006. Only Bryan Dos Santos Gomes has not been found.
The hunt for the kidnapped infant is more than a month old. Statistically, the chances of finding the little boy have substantially diminished.
The investigative landscape has changed considerably, said John Rabun, executive vice president of the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children in Alexandria, Va.
Rabun's associates have been in Fort Myers helping with the investigation. The initial confidence in a quick recovery of the infant is now gone, he said.
"You keep hoping, and you keep working," he said, "but we've reached that point where the numbers are working against us."
Fort Myers police Chief Hilton Daniels has been more upbeat, expressing confidence that police will unravel the mystery. Police have said little about their progress, but there is evidence that field work continues.
Last week, detectives arrested a woman in connection with an 11-year-old murder after initially checking her out when someone called to say she matched the kidnapper's composite drawing.
Detectives are satisfied she was not involved in the Dec. 1 kidnapping, police said. In addition, Daniels has said there is forensic evidence in the case. He would not specify what that evidence is.
There are still almost daily meetings at the Florida Department of Law Enforcement to discuss the case, said Shelly Flynn, a Fort Myers police spokeswoman. But the full-time commitment of manpower has diminished. At one time, police said the task force was a combination of more than 50 city, state and federal investigators. The city now has a detective sergeant, two detectives and a uniformed officer assigned full time to the hunt. They are supplemented by two non-sworn support personnel, Maureen Buice, a Fort Myers police spokeswoman, has said.
She would not comment on the assignment of personnel from the Florida Department of Law Enforcement or federal agencies, beyond saying their numbers ebb and flow depending on investigative needs.
Chances of finding abducted infant less than 45 percent Perhaps grim support for Rabun's assessment.
The numbers he talks about are the statistics his group keeps on child abductions. After a month, the chance of a successful recovery drops to about 45 percent, he said. As time passes, he said, the numbers become more discouraging.
"That doesn't mean you stop looking," he said. "We've had successful recoveries nine months later."
But statistically, the odds are now against the police, he said.
Bryan's mother, Maria Ramos Dos Santos, 23, reported Bryan kidnapped at knifepoint on Dec. 1 after she and a friend, Janice Duarte, 23, got into a woman's SUV to give her directions to the Pine Manor neighborhood.
Since that time, she has criticized the police for a lack of progress. She also said she was given a lie detector test.
The police confirm that they've given lie detector tests to Dos Santos, Duarte and the baby's father, Jurandir Gomes Costa, 26.
Police won't say how they did, but Dos Santos said they told her there were "problems" with her answers to some of the questions. She also said police accused her of selling Bryan and inventing the kidnap story.
Both Dos Santos and Duarte said the examiner did not speak their native Portuguese and did the test through a translator. Sometimes a necessary expedient, but not the preferred method, said Charlie Mesloh, an assistant professor of criminal justice at Florida Gulf Coast University and former polygraph operator.
"Using a translator shouldn't make a difference," he added. "As long as the translator translates the exact questions the examiner is asking."
Mesloh said Dos Santos' reference to problems could mean the test results were either inconclusive or deceptive.
"Polygraphs are very good at specific issue testing like in this type of case," he said. "An inconclusive or deceptive result would raise questions."
The police would not comment.