GUILTY FL - Dan Markel, 41, FSU law professor, Tallahassee, 18 July 2014 - #2 *Arrests*

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Unless she is an idiot or is poorly advised, why would KM "flip" or say anything? If she admits to being the go between for a hired hit, at a minimum she is still going to face a sentence on a murder conspiracy charge and she will lose her kids. If she doesn't admit anything, the prosecution would have to go after her, as well as Garcia and Rivera, on only circumstantial evidence of notice and no unmistakable evidence like DNA or a weapon that puts any of them at the crime scene. That seems like a gamble any rational person would take.

Based on what we know so far the only evidence of the hired hit is a connect the dots study based on innuendo -- unless there is some clear evidence of payment for a hit -- so I predict that any good defense lawyer would advise her to keep her mouth shut and roll the dice on a conspiracy prosecution rather than cooperate and give the cops the evidence to make the case against all three of them. Of course, we can expect the cops will put pressure on her, and maybe she is so scared that this works, but given the evidence we know right now if she is well advised what would KM have to gain by spilling evidence that would allow for a stronger conspiracy case against her as well as a more compelling first degree murder case against Garcia and Rivera -- or am I missing something? This seems to me a like case where talking to the cops can only harm her as well as the persons that they have in custody. I suspect that is why the police have not yet taken her into custody and perhaps they never will.
 
And I'd add, I'm sure she'll have great legal representation- an expensive private attorney (or two or three), like Sigfredo- even though they are broke.
Paid for by who I wonder?
 
Unless she is an idiot or is poorly advised, why would KM "flip" or say anything? If she admits to being the go between for a hired hit, at a minimum she is still going to face a sentence on a murder conspiracy charge and she will lose her kids. If she doesn't admit anything, the prosecution would have to go after her, as well as Garcia and Rivera, on only circumstantial evidence of notice and no unmistakable evidence like DNA or a weapon that puts any of them at the crime scene. That seems like a gamble any rational person would take.

Based on what we know so far the only evidence of the hired hit is a connect the dots study based on innuendo -- unless there is some clear evidence of payment for a hit -- so I predict that any good defense lawyer would advise her to keep her mouth shut and roll the dice on a conspiracy prosecution rather than cooperate and give the cops the evidence to make the case against all three of them. Of course, we can expect the cops will put pressure on her, and maybe she is so scared that this works, but given the evidence we know right now if she is well advised what would KM have to gain by spilling evidence that would allow for a stronger conspiracy case against her as well as a more compelling first degree murder case against Garcia and Rivera -- or am I missing something? This seems to me a like case where talking to the cops can only harm her as well as the persons that they have in custody. I suspect that is why the police have not yet taken her into custody and perhaps they never will.

Agree. But the middle man doesn't necessarily know anything. Maybe she said Charles wants to talk to you (to Garcia ) and then put Charles on the phone.

Then maybe she was told to not worry about what they are discussing. Just know that money will be made.

So KM is definitely in a position to extort money from Charles and then flee to another country with the kids. Jmo
 
Unless she is an idiot or is poorly advised, why would KM "flip" or say anything? If she admits to being the go between for a hired hit, at a minimum she is still going to face a sentence on a murder conspiracy charge and she will lose her kids. If she doesn't admit anything, the prosecution would have to go after her, as well as Garcia and Rivera, on only circumstantial evidence of notice and no unmistakable evidence like DNA or a weapon that puts any of them at the crime scene. That seems like a gamble any rational person would take.

Based on what we know so far the only evidence of the hired hit is a connect the dots study based on innuendo -- unless there is some clear evidence of payment for a hit -- so I predict that any good defense lawyer would advise her to keep her mouth shut and roll the dice on a conspiracy prosecution rather than cooperate and give the cops the evidence to make the case against all three of them. Of course, we can expect the cops will put pressure on her, and maybe she is so scared that this works, but given the evidence we know right now if she is well advised what would KM have to gain by spilling evidence that would allow for a stronger conspiracy case against her as well as a more compelling first degree murder case against Garcia and Rivera -- or am I missing something? This seems to me a like case where talking to the cops can only harm her as well as the persons that they have in custody. I suspect that is why the police have not yet taken her into custody and perhaps they never will.
spoken just like a defense attorney.

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And I'd add, I'm sure she'll have great legal representation- an expensive private attorney (or two or three), like Sigfredo- even though they are broke.
Paid for by who I wonder?

Out of a possible 4 suspects. They already have 2 caught. Now 2 remain.

So out of 4 to 5 people. The D.A will have to offer a immunity deal to the least dangerous person that has the least funds that has more knowledge.

So I expect that would be KM. Because Charles and the others have too much to lose and will not be talking. Especially since one did the paying. And the other 2 did the actual negotiations and deed. Jmo.

But you folks are right. KM needs a good independent lawyer that is not provided by Charles nor Garcia.
 
That pretty much sums up the case. There are some people on this board that think TPD is sitting on a cache of crucial evidence which they will only make available at a later date, when the murder trial starts. Well, that's not how this thing usually works. The Attachment A was disclosed as part of the discovery process, which is essentially a process during which both sides, prosecution and defense, size each other up by disclosing what each other have. You need to make available all evidence for the defense to review. This is part of criminal procedure. If the prosecution really had a strong case, they would be making available some of the evidence now: e.g., the incriminating tapped phone call between Donna and Charles Adelson or between Charles Adelson and Katie Magbanua. Or the bank transfer from the Adelsons to Magbanua or those who carried out the murder. These people are not stupid. Only cash probably exchanged hands, some of it before the murder and all probably through Katie Magbanua.

TPD doesn't have infinite resources. If they have strong evidence, they will present them during the discovery process. They would go straight to the evidence and make the defense cop a deal based on the strength of that evidence. So far, we have a circumstantial case compelling enough to indict and possibly convict the two suspects. No DNA and no eyewitness, although if you read some news accounts, a neighbor who heard gunshots is being treated as an eyewitness to the murder. Not the case at all. They have a strong circumstantial case. But anyone above the two suspects is a different story. The two suspects may not flip given their gang ties, which could prevent them from going after anyone else. The reason why they arrested the two is to squeeze and see how long this will go on. Plus Rivera was already in custody anyway. A good defense attorney can see right through this and advise his client that the evidence is all circumstantial.

Unless she is an idiot or is poorly advised, why would KM "flip" or say anything? If she admits to being the go between for a hired hit, at a minimum she is still going to face a sentence on a murder conspiracy charge and she will lose her kids.
 
That pretty much sums up the case. There are some people on this board that think TPD is sitting on a cache of crucial evidence which they will only make available at a later date, when the murder trial starts. Well, that's not how this thing usually works. The Attachment A was disclosed as part of the discovery process, which is essentially a process during which both sides, prosecution and defense, size each other up by disclosing what each other have. You need to make available all evidence for the defense to review. This is part of criminal procedure. If the prosecution really had a strong case, they would be making available some of the evidence now: e.g., the incriminating tapped phone call between Donna and Charles Adelson or between Charles Adelson and Katie Magbanua. Or the bank transfer from the Adelsons to Magbanua or those who carried out the murder. These people are not stupid. Only cash probably exchanged hands, some of it before the murder and all probably through Katie Magbanua.

TPD doesn't have infinite resources. If they have strong evidence, they will present them during the discovery process. They would go straight to the evidence and make the defense cop a deal based on the strength of that evidence. So far, we have a circumstantial case compelling enough to indict and possibly convict the two suspects. No DNA and no eyewitness, although if you read some news accounts, a neighbor who heard gunshots is being treated as an eyewitness to the murder. Not the case at all. They have a strong circumstantial case. But anyone above the two suspects is a different story. The two suspects may not flip given their gang ties, which could prevent them from going after anyone else. The reason why they arrested the two is to squeeze and see how long this will go on. Plus Rivera was already in custody anyway. A good defense attorney can see right through this and advise his client that the evidence is all circumstantial.

Putting aside the issue of circumstantial evidence alone, which could very well be enough to convict them:

Attachment A is simply an expanded version of the probable cause affidavit- the justification for locking up Sigfredo.
The Grand Jury heard all the evidence- and indicted him. They were held over which led many to believe they will be issuing additional indictments very soon.
But as far as the entire case being revealed, Georgia Cappleman, the State Prosecutor, just said:

...prosecutors must explain why Garcia should be held without bond, but that doesn’t allow Lewis to shake down the entire case. “If I fail, then the result and the remedy is to give a bond, not to be able to call witnesses and be able to examine my whole case,” Cappleman said.

It's hard to reconcile her statement with what you state above.

TPD doesn't have infinite resources. If they have strong evidence, they will present them during the discovery process.
Correct, for sure. Can you confirm that this process is complete already?

I don't think they can possibly sit on additional evidence until the trial- I don't think anyone thinks that. But there's undoubtedly evidence that we are not aware of - yet. It's early in a complex case that is still being investigated. We'll probably learn more at the bond hearing.

It is fair to say there are two camps here, one that thinks they have very strong evidence, one that thinks it is a fragile case and they need people to flip. We will find out very soon.
One likely possibility (and a story that is making the rounds in town) is that they have so much strong evidence that they can use it to flip people who realize they will surely be convicted. These are death-penalty cases and their lives are literally on the line.
 
Putting aside the issue of circumstantial evidence alone, which could very well be enough to convict them:

Correct me if I am wrong. Attachment A is simply an expanded version of the probable cause affidavit- the justification for locking him up.
The Grand Jury heard all the evidence- and more information (and evidence) will be revealed in the bond hearing.
But Georgia Cappleman, the State Prosecutor, just said:

...prosecutors must explain why Garcia should be held without bond, but that doesn’t allow Lewis to shake down the entire case. “If I fail, then the result and the remedy is to give a bond, not to be able to call witnesses and be able to examine my whole case,” Cappleman said.

It's hard to reconcile her statement with what you state above.


Correct, for sure. Can you confirm that this process is complete already?

I don't think they sit on additional evidence until the trial- I don't think anyone thinks that. But there's undoubtedly evidence that we are not aware of - yet.

It is fair to say there are two camps here, one that thinks they have a lot more evidence, one that thinks they need people to flip and that it's a fragile case if they don't.
We will find out very soon.

Agree. Hopefully the jail call will revoke bail for Garcia alone. Because Luis is definitely going nowhere forthe next 12 years. Jmo
 
That pretty much sums up the case. There are some people on this board that think TPD is sitting on a cache of crucial evidence which they will only make available at a later date, when the murder trial starts. Well, that's not how this thing usually works. The Attachment A was disclosed as part of the discovery process, which is essentially a process during which both sides, prosecution and defense, size each other up by disclosing what each other have. You need to make available all evidence for the defense to review. This is part of criminal procedure. If the prosecution really had a strong case, they would be making available some of the evidence now: e.g., the incriminating tapped phone call between Donna and Charles Adelson or between Charles Adelson and Katie Magbanua. Or the bank transfer from the Adelsons to Magbanua or those who carried out the murder. These people are not stupid. Only cash probably exchanged hands, some of it before the murder and all probably through Katie Magbanua.

TPD doesn't have infinite resources. If they have strong evidence, they will present them during the discovery process. They would go straight to the evidence and make the defense cop a deal based on the strength of that evidence. So far, we have a circumstantial case compelling enough to indict and possibly convict the two suspects. No DNA and no eyewitness, although if you read some news accounts, a neighbor who heard gunshots is being treated as an eyewitness to the murder. Not the case at all. They have a strong circumstantial case. But anyone above the two suspects is a different story. The two suspects may not flip given their gang ties, which could prevent them from going after anyone else. The reason why they arrested the two is to squeeze and see how long this will go on. Plus Rivera was already in custody anyway. A good defense attorney can see right through this and advise his client that the evidence is all circumstantial.

Agree to disagree. I predict KM will flip. I don't believe they are "sitting on a cache of crucial evidence" which they will make available "when the murder trial starts." No, that' s not how it works - how it works is that there will be years between now and the murder trial - years during which the additional evidence the state has will be revealed during the discovery process and potential additional evidence will be discovered through the ongoing investigation. While I don't believe they are "sitting on a cache of crucial evidence" I believe they have enough to indict KM for conspiracy when the grand jury reconvenes next month, at which point I believe negotiations will begin and KM will eventually (probably several months to even a year from now) agree to cooperate with police in exchange for a plea bargain. Like I said, agree to disagree. We'll see how it plays out.
 
I agree. We all know that KM is definitely linked to this entire thing via Garcia and Charlie boy.

So there is no disputing that. Now let's say KM wants to play dumb since she knows that no one will talk. Especially Garcia nor Charlie. Then what's next?

I will tell you. Luis is already doing 12 years and is looking at an additional 40 years or death for his involvement with the hit on Dan.

So even if Luis is given 25 years for Dans Murder. Then thats still a total of 37 years.

So he would probably talk if they promise to count his 12 year federal time as time served towards the 25 years that he will get for his guilty plea and cooperation against KM and Garcia and any others in Dans murder.

Now I'm sure Luis will talk if he only has to serve 25 to 30 years altogether for both his federal and state cases. Idk.

So K.M and others really need to worry about how much Luis knows and can help piece together. Because I'm sure Garcia told him everything on the 30 hour drive that they were both on together during the first attempt and then the second time.

Jmo. KM may not be the only one with a hand to play. So she may want to cut a deal if she knows something. Jmo
 
Putting aside the issue of circumstantial evidence alone, which could very well be enough to convict them:

Attachment A is simply an expanded version of the probable cause affidavit- the justification for locking up Sigfredo.
The Grand Jury heard all the evidence- and indicted him. They were held over which led many to believe they will be issuing additional indictments very soon.
But as far as the entire case being revealed, Georgia Cappleman, the State Prosecutor, just said:

...prosecutors must explain why Garcia should be held without bond, but that doesn’t allow Lewis to shake down the entire case. “If I fail, then the result and the remedy is to give a bond, not to be able to call witnesses and be able to examine my whole case,” Cappleman said.

It's hard to reconcile her statement with what you state above.


Correct, for sure. Can you confirm that this process is complete already?

I don't think they can possibly sit on additional evidence until the trial- I don't think anyone thinks that. But there's undoubtedly evidence that we are not aware of - yet. It's early in a complex case that is still being investigated. We'll probably learn more at the bond hearing.

It is fair to say there are two camps here, one that thinks they have very strong evidence, one that thinks it is a fragile case and they need people to flip. We will find out very soon.
One likely possibility (and a story that is making the rounds in town) is that they have so much strong evidence that they can use it to flip people who realize they will surely be convicted. These are death-penalty cases and their lives are literally on the line.



How about we all put our skill set to good use? Is it "legally" possible to sleuth Wendi Adelson's financial affidavit currently on file in the court house and see if it's false like Dan thought it was ?
 
I agree. We all know that KM is definitely linked to this entire thing via Garcia and Charlie boy.

So there is no disputing that. Now let's say KM wants to play dumb since she knows that no one will talk. Especially Garcia nor Charlie. Then what's next?

I will tell you. Luis is already doing 12 years and is looking at an additional 40 years or death for his involvement with the hit on Dan.

So even if Luis is given 25 years for Dans Murder. Then thats still a total of 37 years.

So he would probably talk if they promise to count his 12 year federal time as time served towards the 25 years that he will get for his guilty plea and cooperation against KM and Garcia and any others in Dans murder.

Now I'm sure Luis will talk if he only has to serve 25 to 30 years altogether for both his federal and state cases. Idk.

So K.M and others really need to worry about how much Luis knows and can help piece together. Because I'm sure Garcia told him everything on the 30 hour drive that they were both on together during the first attempt and then the second time.

Jmo. KM may not be the only one with a hand to play. So she may want to cut a deal if she knows something. Jmo

Totally agree with you. Seems we're in the same camp here :) I think Rivera is definitely a likely candidate to flip. Since he wasn't the trigger man, they can get away with offering him something besides life. He'll want it.

A couple examples that lead me to believe there's more evidence in the state's hands - The arrest affidavit says CA and KM had a close, personal relationship but they don't say everything they know about that - there's more than just phone call history. Possibly witnesses can attest to their romantic link, among other evidence. Then, during the bond hearing the other day, Garcia's lawyer said something along the lines of - "Garcia had an acrimonious relationship with CA, to suggest he'd kill for him is ludicrous." That means Garcia's lawyer is admitting that he knew CA - and he's implying that they didn't like each other because they were fighting over KM. Why would Garcia's lawyer even admit the connection to CA (which is a connection to Markel) if there wasn't already evidence of their interaction?
 
How about we all put our skill set to good use? Is it "legally" possible to sleuth Wendi Adelson's financial affidavit currently on file in the court house and see if it's false like Dan thought it was ?

The financial affidavit is under seal. The motions are not, however - we don't know if it was really false but we know Markel accused her of failing to disclose several assets and that she never produced the documentation pertaining to an investment account that he moved to compel. He was killed before the motion went to a hearing and she was court ordered to compel it. Seems pretty damning to me.
 
I don't think you're disagreeing with me at all. I've been hearing how TPD has some strong evidence that will only be made available at trial. Just go back and reread some of the posts. That would be a procedural violation. Like I said, the arrest was made for Garcia to get the process going. They'll try to size him up and Rivera is already in the pen so they'll see if they can exploit their weaknesses. Garcia is asking to be let out of isolation. Aside from thinking that they have enough for conspiracy -- I tend to agree with that -- what exactly are you in disagreement? I've said that this is a circumstantial case where the prosecution's position could get stronger depending on what the two suspects decide to do while being detained.

Agree to disagree. I predict KM will flip. I don't believe they are "sitting on a cache of crucial evidence" which they will make available "when the murder trial starts." No, that' s not how it works - how it works is that there will be years between now and the murder trial - years during which the additional evidence the state has will be revealed during the discovery process and potential additional evidence will be discovered through the ongoing investigation.

I don't understand your point because you're not tying Georgia Cappleman's quote with what I said. How is Ms. Cappleman's point regarding Lewis "shaking down the case" related in any way to what I wrote? What are you reconciling this with?


Believe it or not, this is a common mistake. You may not think that way but the general public isn't really all that familiar with criminal procedure. They're often under the impression that the prosecutor will "play his cards close to the vest" until the trial so he can "ambush" the defense with some crucial, incriminating evidence. Yes, there were additional evidence presented to the grand jury. We have some idea of what they are: the witness who rented Rivera the motel room in his name, the Ashford witness who saw the two, etc. These strengthen the circumstantial case against the two suspects. Are there any strong evidence that will convict the Adelsons or Katie Magbanua? Maybe for KM but might not be strong enough for TDP to take action now. The process has to play out to see if testimonies can be obtained.

I don't think they can possibly sit on additional evidence until the trial- I don't think anyone thinks that. But there's undoubtedly evidence that we are not aware of - yet. It's early in a complex case that is still being investigated. We'll probably learn more at the bond hearing.
 
I don't think you're disagreeing with me at all. I've been hearing how TPD has some strong evidence that will only be made available at trial. Just go back and reread some of the posts. That would be a procedural violation. Like I said, the arrest was made for Garcia to get the process going. They'll try to size him up and Rivera is already in the pen so they'll see if they can exploit their weaknesses. Garcia is asking to be let out of isolation. Aside from thinking that they have enough for conspiracy -- I tend to agree with that -- what exactly are you in disagreement? I've said that this is a circumstantial case where the prosecution's position could get stronger depending on what the two suspects decide to do while being detained.

I don't understand your point because you're not tying Georgia Cappleman's quote with what I said. How is Ms. Cappleman's point regarding Lewis "shaking down the case" related in any way to what I wrote? What are you reconciling this with?

Sorry - I misunderstood some of what you said initially! Totally agree with the above.
 
The Attachment A was disclosed as part of the discovery process.
This is incorrect. They have not even entered the formal process of legal discovery yet- check the Leon County website.

I don't understand your point because you're not tying Georgia Cappleman's quote with what I said. How is Ms. Cappleman's point regarding Lewis "shaking down the case" related in any way to what I wrote? What are you reconciling this with?
Cappeleman knows that the defense doesn't have the right to to see her whole case, yet. You're arguing that if there was a wiretapped phone call, it would've been released. Cappleman's saying she's allowed to have evidence at this point that she hasn't disclosed, likely due to the ongoing investigation.

If the prosecution really had a strong case, they would be making available some of the evidence now: e.g., the incriminating tapped phone call between Donna and Charles Adelson or between Charles Adelson and Katie Magbanua.
If you are correct, we shouldn't see any strong evidence of a criminal conspiracy at a later date- and we especially shouldn't see any new, strong, previously unreleased evidence - you're claiming they would have released it by now.
I think that's completely wrong for multiple reasons. For instance, it was reported in the Democrat that the Grand Jury testimony included recorded phone calls.

Overall in my opinion you're grossly mis-reading this situation and underestimating the State's case as a result.
We will find out the truth soon enough.
 
How about we all put our skill set to good use? Is it "legally" possible to sleuth Wendi Adelson's financial affidavit currently on file in the court house and see if it's false like Dan thought it was ?

At the TPD press conference, a reporter noted that the amount Wendi Adelson received in settlement after Markel's death was different than that which she asked for in the original divorce/court documents, and asked if that was relevant. The Chief of Police said they were looking at all relevant evidence.
Likely relevant.
 
Unless she is an idiot or is poorly advised, why would KM "flip" or say anything? If she admits to being the go between for a hired hit, at a minimum she is still going to face a sentence on a murder conspiracy charge and she will lose her kids. If she doesn't admit anything, the prosecution would have to go after her, as well as Garcia and Rivera, on only circumstantial evidence of notice and no unmistakable evidence like DNA or a weapon that puts any of them at the crime scene. That seems like a gamble any rational person would take.

Based on what we know so far the only evidence of the hired hit is a connect the dots study based on innuendo -- unless there is some clear evidence of payment for a hit -- so I predict that any good defense lawyer would advise her to keep her mouth shut and roll the dice on a conspiracy prosecution rather than cooperate and give the cops the evidence to make the case against all three of them. Of course, we can expect the cops will put pressure on her, and maybe she is so scared that this works, but given the evidence we know right now if she is well advised what would KM have to gain by spilling evidence that would allow for a stronger conspiracy case against her as well as a more compelling first degree murder case against Garcia and Rivera -- or am I missing something? This seems to me a like case where talking to the cops can only harm her as well as the persons that they have in custody. I suspect that is why the police have not yet taken her into custody and perhaps they never will.

Assume KM is indicted on conspiracy charges, that TPD has at least some additional evidence linking her to the others (if not a smoking gun) to merit this charge. Then, assume LE offers her a vastly reduced charge - even complete immunity - to tell all, to testify against higher-ups. Is that not within the realm of possibility? And would that not be a compelling reason for her to "flip"? A gamble a rational person would take? Something for her to gain by spilling evidence .....?

My amateur opinion is that in a case such as this, LE cares most about the people at the top of the chain. Those who hired the hitman should face more severe punishment than those who carried out the actual hit. They will hold the maximum possible charges over the heads of LR, SG, and KM, but be willing to reduce them significantly if and when they cooperate in breaking the case. All three will have strong motivation to do so, even if they only think it is 50/50 they could lose at trial on the higher charges.

On the issue of how much additional/unrevealed evidence TPD has ..... there is a vast middle ground between "they have everything" (e.g. phone-tapped confessions, evidence of payments) and "they have nothing" -- the latter of which some seem to be arguing. I think it's pretty clear they have something. The Garcia probable cause affidavit, as I understand it, only needs to include enough info to get an arrest for Garcia for first degree murder. It's not an affidavit for KM's or CA's arrest .... good to show high-level relationships and how SG is linked to the Adelsons (for motive), but unnecessary and counter-productive to reveal all of the gory details on the periphery.
 
Interesting that Rivera did not deny that he was present at the murder, and scary that two allegedly armed men might consider visiting the FSU campus, imo, speculation.
rbbm.

When asked why he traveled to Tallahassee he stated that he was visiting
FSU campus. Investigators asked if Rivera was an FSU fan and he stated that he
indicated he was a Miami Hurricane fan. When questioned further Rivera would not
confirm or deny if he was at the scene of the homicide.

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/2901308/Sigfredo-Garcia-Probable-Cause-Attachment-A.pdf
 
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