I live in a neighborhood that has similarities to this one, with manned gate security and many of the homes on a large lake. The security aspect in regard to the entrance is excellent. The guards will call if you forget to say you have a guest or workman coming. If, no answer, the person is turned away. No deliveries can come in after a certain time..I think it's currently 6PM. The police should have a fairly good idea of who was in the neighborhood working, etc during that period.
The problem is the lake. A few years ago, an individual who claimed to come from an organization called the Moroccan Army Of Philadelphia (sometimes Moorish Army) gained entry to a large empty house on the Lake. He put up a small notice saying he had seized the house for his organization and explained that the organization does not recognize property rights. He managed to live there for several days until the realtor handling the house saw the small notice he posted near the front door.
By the time, the authorities came, he was not in the house. He obviously has help arriving and departing. He had food, etc. Either he arrived hidden in a car, assisted by someone who had authorized entry through the gate. Or he was being delivered and picked up again by boat. I have since been told by a real estate lawyer in Atlanta that this organization is well known. They target houses in this kind of neighborhood and it can take months or years to go through the legal process to get them out. They are very well organized squatters.
I wonder if there are any vacant homes on the water near the victims house that could have been the target? Not that this group has ever been violent as far as I know. But anything can happen when people are surprised and chaos ensues. Just my opinion.