BBM
The theory I'm working on is Ron did something, like stole drugs from someone, and Misty knew about it. If Misty told Ron people came into the MH, armed, saying the drugs Ron stole belonged to them, they threatened Misty, maybe she even says they sexually assaulted her, then maybe Haleigh wandered in and they decided to take her and Ron could come up with so much money to get her back, etc.
How this works is Ron seems the kind of person who would be angry at Misty for letting Haleigh be taken, but also feel bad about what Misty went through. This would explain the 911 call, why it seems they did not look around outside for her, Ron's impatience with LE and not wanting to co-operate with them, since in his mind he kind of knows where Haleigh is and what he has to do to get her back, why TN and GGMS were so supportive of Misty, why Ron married her, why Ron seemed to be covering for her, and what info Ron had to bargain with to get a plea deal.
How this doesn't work is with something like Ron thinking this was payback for his stealing drugs, and he can get Haleigh back, is IMO his attitude should have started changing after a week or two when there was no followthrough. I thought about the threat of them coming back for Jr., but Ron didn't seem to be safeguarding against that. I thought about him having murdered someone, but IMO, that would bring the instant fear Haleigh would be murdered in retaliation, so I don't think that works, either.
So now my mind is going towards something exclusive towards Haleigh, like they were taking Haleigh permanently, and Ron just didn't much give a d***.
I also thought about this really happening, and not just a story for Ron's benefit, but then that doesn't explain Tommy's involvement.
IMO, this case is simple to the ones who know what happened. It's full of twists and turns for those of us who don't, because we have to come at it backwards.