BlueCrab said:
Dru,
May we have the pleasure of knowing YOUR theory re' what happened at the Ramsey's house on Christmas night? Thank you.
BlueCrab
Sure. I've posted it before.
I've never been IDI except when my whole familiarity with this case was what I heard on the news. Once I started looking into the case, and particularly when I read that bizarre ransome note, I became an RDI.
Initially, I thought that while either of the adult R's was a strong possibility, I leaned toward PR. I still believe she authored the RN. Handwriting, diction, punctuation, the use of an
uncommon editing mark, etc. point to her. (I could say a lot about that inverted carat and what I think it means; but that's for another time.)
But when I tried to come up with an explanation for the crime
as committed which made PR the perpetrator, I ran into a few stumbling blocks.
Stumbling block #1 was the fact that the sexual wound inflicted on JBR was inflicted before she died, as the wound bled. Most of the PR theories assume this wound was postmortem staging; but to accept that you must accept that PR was more concerned with inflicting this wound than she was with ascertaining whether or not her daughter was actually dead! Since I believe the strangulation actually completed the murder which was begun by the violent head blow, I believe that the wound was most likely inflicted between these two events. Is there any corroboration? Well, only in that it would be pretty hard to avoid inflicting incidental scratches, tears, bruises or abrasions on other parts of JBR's genital area if you were inflicting a painful wound of that nature on a child who was not only alive, but conscious. The fact that there don't appear to be such incidental wounds is what makes me think there's a strong possibility JBR was unconscious when that wound was inflicted (one of the reasons I reject the 'douching' theory, btw.)
Stumbling block #2 was the appearance that both JR and PR were involved in the cover-up. Now, this isn't a proven fact, but I think it did happen for three reasons. 1) The time element, as I said earlier. I don't think one person could have written the RN, staged the body (possibly more than once) and called police by 5:52 am. 2) The discordant staging. At some point during the staging process, the scenario changed from 'political kidnapping' to 'random pedophile' but some of the staging, particularly the RN, continued to reflect the first staging scenario. 3) The discordant statements given to the police in the early days of the investigation, i.e. did the R's arrive home at 8:30 or 10pm? was JBR wearing a red turtleneck or a white top? etc. All of these, taken together, suggest to me that both parents were involved in the cover-up.
But, here's the stumbling block part. Why? If only one parent is responsible for the death of JBR, why are both covering up?
Stumbling block #3 was that there didn't seem to be a strong enough
motive for PR to kill JBR
in the way that the crime actually happened. Had JBR been found outside below the balcony of her room, for instance, or at the bottom of the main staircase, I could believe in a sudden rage killing. A worn out, exhausted mother dealing with a recalcitrant child loses it, and the child dies. We've seen such things before. But this child was hit over the head with the proverbial blunt instrument,
and strangled,
and beaten,
and sexually assulted. As a mere 'rage killing' this seems, if you'll forgive the word, like overkill.
I began to think that the sexual wound inflicted on JBR was the real key to understanding this crime. Who inflicted it, and why?
There are, IMO, only three major possibilities as to
why. One, the killer was seeking perverse gratification. Two, the killer was covering up evidence that he had abused this child at some time prior to her death. Three, someone else
knows for a fact that this child has been abused, and is willing to inflict this injury on a still-living child to cover up for the abuser.
I discard reason one (and therefore the BR theory, along with the IDI pedophile theory) because there's no evidence that gratification was taken on the night this crime was committed. Put as bluntly as possible, and I beg pardon for being so blunt here, there's no semen on, in, or near the body, or in any place or on any thing associated with the crime. So unless our mythical pedophile was a woman, there's no reason to accept reason one as the reason this wound was inflicted. (Interestingly, this doesn't rule out PR. While I don't think she was abusing her daughter, there's another reason for that, which I'll get to in a moment.)
Reason two seems like the most likely possibility. If someone has been abusing JBR, and has killed her to keep her from telling about the abuse, it would be quite logical for this person to inflict this wound, not to destroy the past evidence of abuse completely, which can't be done, but to compromise and confuse it so that it's not overwhelming evidence that someone who has abused JBR in the past is involved in this crime. Not only does the wound contaminate the
evidence of abuse, it also conceals the
motive of the crime. To me, this is the reason this wound was inflicted! What killer is going to pause in the midst of his crime to inflict such a wound, if not for some very important, critical reason? And if this is, indeed, the reason this wound was inflicted, to disguise both the prior abuse and the motive for the murder,
then it worked!
Reason three has to be considered, however. Does someone in the house know about the abuse, for a fact, and is this person so concerned about the abuser that he/she will pause in the middle of killing JBR to inflict the wound, to cover up for the abuser? It seems terribly unlikely. Murder is a crime which carries far more punishment than abuse, and murderers aren't usually this altruistic. If the wound had been inflicted post mortem there might be a case made out for this reason, but the fact that it was inflicted on JBR while she was still alive makes this one a stretch, IMO.
(You've noticed that I haven't said anything about the possibility that the wound was inflicted to make JBR's death look like a sex crime. It wasn't. It would have to been a post mortem injury for that to be true, and the RN staging, which probably came first, wasn't going to be about a sex crime, anyway.)
So, if reason two is correct, and this wound was inflicted to cover up abuse, who is the abuser?
There are three possibilities: BR, PR, and JR. Now, you'll notice I rule BR out as having commited this crime 'accidentally' during a sex game, but I don't thereby rule him out as the abuser/killer
on those grounds. However, I do rule him out on the basis of what I think is the motive of this crime: to silence JBR before she can inform other people that she's being sexually abused. He would have no reason to worry about that, since he probably wouldn't even be aware that it was a crime! As far as JBR is concerned, in another post, I'd like to point to what I think of as the evidence that she was showing signs of revealing abuse, but most people here are quite familiar with those things.
Was PR abusing her daughter? I couldn't rule her out under the whole 'reason one' thing, but I think she can be ruled out now, for the most part. There remains a slight possibility that she was the one, but it depends on a few other things which seem a bit contradictory. The primary thing to consider is that PR was the one taking JBR to the doctor, specifically discussing JBR's bedwetting issues, recurrent vaginitis, and other symptoms which taken together may suggest abuse. If PR was the abuser/killer, why would she take JBR to the doctor so many times? (SuperDave has mentioned the Munchausen by Proxy theory, and it's a possibility. But it seems a remote one.)
What about JR? In considering things, I've come to the conclusion that if the information we have is correct, he's the most likely person to have been abusing JBR, and is therefore the most likely person to have killed her. He certainly has the most to lose, if he's been abusing her and she tells. Statistically he's the most likely person to be abusing JBR if she was being abused. From the standpoint of physical strength he's the most likely to have struck that blow to the head and caused a complete fracture of the skull with a displacement of a section of it.
In the second part of this post, I'll describe what I think happened, how it happened, and why it worked.