dog.gone.cute
Kyron Horman - Missing Since 6-4-10
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Holly Bobo, missing from TN 2014 discussion #5 ***ARRESTS***
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Mr. Noatak
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My opinions only, no facts here:
Thanks. Your news link confirms that locals in "other" blogs were correct about Holly's brother going to the local college. Some said that he was a Senior there. But the 'homework assignment' or 'cancelled class' rumors are harder to confirm. The reason I never addressed any of this in my timeline is because none of the information provided a typical daily time-schedule for Holly's brother. That would have been relevant to a timeline.
The abductor MUST have carefully calculated that Holly was home alone, after her parents left for work. What led to this blatant oversight in a so-called carefully-planned crime? This is illogical and paradoxical. Remember, if Holly's brother did not leave at his normal time because of a class-assignment, then the perpetrator should have known he was still in the house. Rather, it seems (if all is kosher), the perpetrator was under the distinct impression that Holly's brother was NOT in the house overnight.
From that timeline:
Coincidences should always raise an eyebrow. Isn't it odd that this flurry of phone calls about some sort of dispute takes place immediately before something happens to Holly? I have always had a suspicion that there was something going on that we don't know about, so maybe they what they were talking about had something to do with the event in some way.
*Edit* Hmmm...another thing about that timeline....why would the brother think the blood was from a turkey the boyfriend killed, if he was asleep and presumably unaware of the hunting incident at all?
The more I read that timeline, the more I think that something else is going on here that we don't know about.
Noatak "The abductor MUST have carefully calculated that Holly was home alone, after her parents left for work. What led to this blatant oversight in a so-called carefully-planned crime? This is illogical and paradoxical. "
The crime looks "perfectly planned" in retrospect because it happened as it did, but who knows how well it was planned.
There is no such thing as the perfect crime, the perfect criminal, or the perfect plan, so imo working to reverse engineer the perp's knowledge and plans is a fool's errand. A major problem in trying to play that game is that we don't know how reliable or unreliable his original plans were. Maybe there were all sorts of things he failed to consider. Nor do we know if/where the perp maybe went off script for reasons that may or may not have been rational. We might get it right, but we might also get it backwards.
We do know that Holly was taken and that CB was there. But we don't know if the perp knew that, if he expected it, if he ignored it, if he planned it that way, or any number of other widely disparate variables possible in his thinking. So imo it's impossible to learn anything about the crime or the criminal by the mere fact that CB was there when she was taken.
The crime looks "perfectly planned" in retrospect because it happened as it did, but who knows how well it was planned.
There is no such thing as the perfect crime, the perfect criminal, or the perfect plan, so imo working to reverse engineer the perp's knowledge and plans is a fool's errand. A major problem in trying to play that game is that we don't know how reliable or unreliable his original plans were. Maybe there were all sorts of things he failed to consider. Nor do we know if/where the perp maybe went off script for reasons that may or may not have been rational. We might get it right, but we might also get it backwards.
We do know that Holly was taken and that CB was there. But we don't know if the perp knew that, if he expected it, if he ignored it, if he planned it that way, or any number of other widely disparate variables possible in his thinking. So imo it's impossible to learn anything about the crime or the criminal by the mere fact that CB was there when she was taken.
SteveS, I have wondered if it is possible that a well hidden motion activated trail camera, focused on the rear area of the Bobo's house may have been used to learn the family's daily schedule..
http://www.cabelas.com/catalog/prod...0&WTz_l=YMAL%3BIK-461541&WTz_l=YMAL;IK-461144
dog.gone.cute
Kyron Horman - Missing Since 6-4-10
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:seeya: Morning Y'all !
Interesting discussion above regarding the morning of the abduction / murder ...
But there is one thing I find perplexing:
IF this abduction/murder was well planned, then WHY would ZA and JA, and others, run their mouths all over town about what they did ?
Now, could it be the drugs -- the meth -- something else ? This bunch that have been charged are career criminals, with a record a mile long, so maybe they thought that they would get away with it like the things that have gotten away with in the past.
It is just astounding how early on ZA and JA were named as the culprits in Holly's abduction/murder ... Last night, I was reading somewhere and found a short thread that was started back in early 2013. And on that particular thread, the initials JA and ZA were mentioned, and then their names were stated, as the ones who abducted Holly.
It's just mind-boggling that it took LE/TBI that long to arrest/charge this bunch. Yes, they needed evidence ... but IMO, something "stinks" ...
Just some thoughts as to why I am uncertain IF the abduction was well planned.
:moo:
Interesting discussion above regarding the morning of the abduction / murder ...
But there is one thing I find perplexing:
IF this abduction/murder was well planned, then WHY would ZA and JA, and others, run their mouths all over town about what they did ?
Now, could it be the drugs -- the meth -- something else ? This bunch that have been charged are career criminals, with a record a mile long, so maybe they thought that they would get away with it like the things that have gotten away with in the past.
It is just astounding how early on ZA and JA were named as the culprits in Holly's abduction/murder ... Last night, I was reading somewhere and found a short thread that was started back in early 2013. And on that particular thread, the initials JA and ZA were mentioned, and then their names were stated, as the ones who abducted Holly.
It's just mind-boggling that it took LE/TBI that long to arrest/charge this bunch. Yes, they needed evidence ... but IMO, something "stinks" ...
Just some thoughts as to why I am uncertain IF the abduction was well planned.
:moo:
Too dumb to care?
I think ZA sent his brother to get HB.
That is why ZA made a comment deflecting guilt towards his brother.
As if because his brother kidnapped Holly then ZA couldnt be blamed for what happened after.
IMO
sophiebelle
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rtjedarling
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don't know when turkey season came in there, but deer season will be soon in my area- everybody and their brother must hunt- all will be out when it opens- can't walk my dogs by the field in the mornings then least I get shot. So things related to hunting like trespassing thoughts, blood in area if you did know someone had been out hunting can be related to by people who are around that lifestyle- around here soon people will be trespassing, baiting fields. and running the deer into the highways.
I believe that the A-train was first mentioned in October 2011 in other forums.
lonetraveler
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I'll admit that I haven't followed this thread 100% but I do have a question here. Didn't Holly's brother have a vehicle? I'm assuming the answer is yes and then I ask, why didn't the kidnapper see his vehicle at home?
CB's car was garaged due to inclement weather conditions..(enclosed garage)
The perfect storm, huh?
dog.gone.cute
Kyron Horman - Missing Since 6-4-10
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:seeya: Hi Vaedur!
Yes, the first mention was way back in October 2011, which was just 6 months after Holly was abducted ... and the A's being mentioned continued on and on, and on related forums over there, until they were finally charged in 2014.
Just mind boggling it took LE/TBI so long.
:moo:
dog.gone.cute
Kyron Horman - Missing Since 6-4-10
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:seeya: Hi lonetraveler ! Nice to see ya here !
I see Foxfire answered your question ... and Fox knows all the facts on this case !
Any more ?s just ask away ... Holly's forum here has a great group of posters !
:seeya:
I think the most likely explanation is that they had nothing to do with it, but being the "tough" guys that they were, hinted that they did to shock their social circles, and that led to all the rumors. Then later, once some of them were facing real jail time for other things, they "snitched" a story that was commonly believed and sold LE a line in order to get a deal of some sort. Looking at this case and what we know about it, I think that scenario might explain what has happened with them.
Final hours with Holly: Family, friends, police reconstruct time before Holly Bobo's abduction
Oct. 8, 2011 by Jordan Buie
http://www.jacksonsun.com/article/2...econstruct-time-before-Holly-Bobo-s-abduction
DARDEN - Before dawn on April 13, Holly Bobo dressed for nursing school, ate breakfast and studied for a test. By 8 a.m. she had been abducted from her home in Darden and has not been seen since.
At 8:05 a.m., the first of several sheriff's deputies and other law enforcement pulled into the Bobos' driveway, 10 minutes from the time Holly was last seen by her brother Clint. Holly's mother, Karen, arrived moments later and her father, Dana, rushed home from work to learn about the abduction of their only daughter.
Wednesday is Holly's 21st birthday, and Thursday marks the six-month anniversary of her disappearance. The Jackson Sun spoke with family, friends and law enforcement to reconstruct the three and a half hours leading up to Holly's disappearance.
That morning, the woods outside Holly's home on Swan Johnson Road were chilly and damp. The National Weather Service in Memphis said the low temperature in Parsons, a few miles from Darden, was 41 degrees. An inch of rain fell the day before. Sunrise was at 6:23 a.m.
Inside the house, family members said, Holly woke up about 4:30 a.m. to study for a nursing exam she was scheduled to take at 8 a.m. at the Tennessee Technology Center of Jackson at Parsons.
Holly studied in the quiet of her room, as her parents and brother slept. Dana said he woke up right after Holly and saw that his daughter's door was shut.
"A lot of mornings before I leave, I'll ask her if she needs any money to buy gas," Dana said. "It is about 5:30 I guess, when I usually leave to go to work, and I talked to her through the door. She said leave her some money, and I left the money on the bar at 5:30 or 25 until 6, and that was the last I talked to her."
As Dana left for his job at McKenzie Tree Service, Karen woke up to get ready for her teaching job at Scotts Hill Elementary School. She went into Holly's bedroom, where Holly sat on her bed to study.
"I leave the house to go to school at around 7," Karen said. "And by that point (Holly) had already gotten up, put her clothes on and was sitting at the dining room table. I fixed her lunch and stuck her breakfast in the microwave, and I left for school."
Right after Karen left, Holly spoke on the phone with Hannah Reece, her friend and fellow nursing student. Reece was the last of Holly's classmates to speak with her.
"I knew Holly before I started the nursing program, but at the start of the year she was just a nursing classmate," Reece said. "By April, she was like my best friend."
The morning Holly disappeared, Reece and Holly texted back and forth about their test that morning. Reece's cell phone signal was weak.
"So around seven o'clock, I called her on her cell phone from my house phone," she said.
Holly told Reece she was going to eat breakfast and put her shoes on and said goodbye.
"All right, Weece," Holly said, calling Reece by her nickname. "I'll see you. Love you."
Holly studied at the kitchen table for a few minutes, then got a call from her boyfriend, Drew Scott, who had been turkey hunting on the other side of Decatur County on Holly's grandmother's property. Since April 2, the opening day of turkey season, hunters from around the state had been entering the woods a half hour before daybreak.
One of Karen's relatives did not recognize Drew and his dad, and Drew explained to them that he was Holly's boyfriend and that Holly's grandmother, Karen's mother, had given him permission to hunt on her 60 acres on the south end of the county. Drew called Holly and told her what happened. That was just before 7:30 a.m., according to the family.
A flurry of phone calls followed between Holly, Drew and Karen about the confusion over Drew hunting on Karen's mother's property.
Karen said she last spoke with her daughter between 7:30 and 7:35, while Clint was still asleep in his room.
Investigators have tried to determine what happened to Holly in the next 20 minutes.
Authorities say they need people to speak up if they saw anything out of the ordinary that morning.
"I urge citizens to go back to that day and think if anything stands out to you," said Decatur County Sheriff Roy Wyatt. "It may be something they saw that could lead to Holly."
Reece said Holly usually arrives in class around 7:55 a.m., sometimes earlier. Karen said the drive from their home to the school in Parsons is about 10 minutes.
"Holly usually leaves around 7:45, and that would put her getting to school at 7:55," Karen said. "But I figure that morning she was planning on being a little early because they had the big test."
James Barnes, a neighbor of the Bobos', lives about 350 yards away in a mobile home beside his mother's home. The neighbors are separated by a ravine and a small pond.
Barnes said he walked out of his home at about 7:40 that morning as he prepared to go to his construction job and heard a scream from the Bobos' house. He told his mother, Cathy Wise, about the scream and went to work.
Wise called the school where Karen taught and told a secretary she did not want to alarm Karen, but that her son heard a scream from the Bobos' house. Karen was in the cafeteria away from her cell phone, and a secretary found her and relayed the message.
Clint, who is 25, woke up around this time and called his mother. He did not hear the scream.
"The dog woke me up barking, and I looked out front and expected to see the electric truck or something," Clint said. "I woke up about 7:50, and I expected to see someone checking the meter, but I didn't see any vehicles.
"I looked out the window and saw Holly's car still here, and I knew she wasn't in the house because I had looked in her room," Clint said. "That's when I called Mom to ask her if Holly had caught a ride with someone or if she didn't have school, but she didn't answer."
Karen said she did not answer her son's call because she left her phone in a classroom. After she received the message from the secretary, she went into the school library, not far from the cafeteria, and called home to ask if everything was OK.
When Clint answered the phone, he said Holly's car was still at the house.
"At that point I knew something was wrong because Holly should have already gone to school," Karen said. "I hung up and dialed 911."
Clint said he had talked to Holly's boyfriend the night before, and Drew told him he was going turkey hunting the next morning, but Drew had not specified where he was going to hunt. Clint said that even after he talked with his mother, he still did not know Drew was hunting on his grandmother's property that morning.
"It was after I spoke with (Mom) that I walked into the kitchen and looked out the window and saw (Holly) and a man dressed in camouflage walking toward the woods," Clint said. "I called Holly's cell phone, and it rang five times and went to voicemail, and I called Drew's phone also, and the same thing happened. What that assured me was that they were in the same place because neither one of them answered their cell phone."
The Bobos live in Decatur County, but the first time Karen called 911, she said she reached Henderson County dispatch. After a few moments, frustrated, she called the house again, and Clint told her that Holly and Drew were out at the edge of the yard walking toward the woods.
"Oh, my God, Clint!" Karen told her son. "That is not Drew! Call 911!"
Karen said she panicked, but her coworkers didn't understand her concerns.
"It was like I knew, but I couldn't make anybody else understand," she said. "People were like, 'Calm down, Karen,' the secretaries, the principal. I know at one point I fell on the floor, and everybody at school just thought I was in this panic."
Clint described the man as wearing a noninsulating type of camouflage a turkey hunter might wear and said that he could not see the man's face or hands. He believes he might have been wearing gloves and a cap. He said both Holly and the man had their backs turned to him. Clint told investigators the man was between 5 feet 8 inches and 6 feet tall and weighed around 200 pounds.
Karen said she told Clint to get a gun and go after the man. She hung up to call 911 again and reached Decatur County. She still had not told Clint about Drew being on the other side of the county, and Clint said he still believed the man to be Holly's boyfriend.
Clint got a loaded pistol, walked out of the back door and went through an open garage attached to the house. That's when he saw a puddle of blood near Holly's car.
"When I walked out the back door, I saw a small puddle of blood, and I still wasn't alarmed because who I thought was her boyfriend was dressed in camo," Clint said. "I thought, 'He's killed a turkey up here on this trail behind the house and brought it to the house to show Holly before she goes to school.'"
"The thing is there was no turkey," Clint said. "I wondered why they would take the turkey back to the woods unless they were walking back to put the turkey in his truck. I was not worried until the neighbor pulled up and said her son heard screams."
As Clint walked toward the woods, Cathy Wise, the neighbor, pulled up in the driveway because the secretary at school had asked her to go to the Bobo home and make sure everything was OK.
"The neighbor pulled up and she said she heard screams about 15 or 20 minutes ago and that was about eight o'clock," Clint said. "At that time, I had my phone on my side or in my hand, and I don't think I spoke to her, I just called 911 like Mom had said."
Clint said that as he was dialing 911 he could hear the engine of the first patrol car coming up Swan Johnson Road, responding to his mother's call, and that the first deputy arrived in less than 10 minutes from when his sister walked toward the woods with the man in camouflage.
Karen showed up shortly after the neighbor and the first patrol car. Terrie Bromley, a friend from school, had driven her home. Drew was at his job at the city of Parsons at 8 a.m., and Dana Bobo said he arrived home from work at about 8:30 a.m.
Officials have said they think Holly's abductor was familiar with the winding roads and rolling landscape of Decatur County, and that Holly was abducted as she tried to get in her car to drive to school.
As the nursing exam began at 8 a.m., Holly's friend and classmate, Britney Brown, looked around the room for her study partner, who she said never missed class. When Holly was not there, her heart dropped.
"If you miss a test, it's nearly impossible to pass a make-up test," Brown said. "Holly usually walks in five or 10 minutes before a test starts, and she doesn't miss.
Oct. 8, 2011 by Jordan Buie
http://www.jacksonsun.com/article/2...econstruct-time-before-Holly-Bobo-s-abduction
DARDEN - Before dawn on April 13, Holly Bobo dressed for nursing school, ate breakfast and studied for a test. By 8 a.m. she had been abducted from her home in Darden and has not been seen since.
At 8:05 a.m., the first of several sheriff's deputies and other law enforcement pulled into the Bobos' driveway, 10 minutes from the time Holly was last seen by her brother Clint. Holly's mother, Karen, arrived moments later and her father, Dana, rushed home from work to learn about the abduction of their only daughter.
Wednesday is Holly's 21st birthday, and Thursday marks the six-month anniversary of her disappearance. The Jackson Sun spoke with family, friends and law enforcement to reconstruct the three and a half hours leading up to Holly's disappearance.
That morning, the woods outside Holly's home on Swan Johnson Road were chilly and damp. The National Weather Service in Memphis said the low temperature in Parsons, a few miles from Darden, was 41 degrees. An inch of rain fell the day before. Sunrise was at 6:23 a.m.
Inside the house, family members said, Holly woke up about 4:30 a.m. to study for a nursing exam she was scheduled to take at 8 a.m. at the Tennessee Technology Center of Jackson at Parsons.
Holly studied in the quiet of her room, as her parents and brother slept. Dana said he woke up right after Holly and saw that his daughter's door was shut.
"A lot of mornings before I leave, I'll ask her if she needs any money to buy gas," Dana said. "It is about 5:30 I guess, when I usually leave to go to work, and I talked to her through the door. She said leave her some money, and I left the money on the bar at 5:30 or 25 until 6, and that was the last I talked to her."
As Dana left for his job at McKenzie Tree Service, Karen woke up to get ready for her teaching job at Scotts Hill Elementary School. She went into Holly's bedroom, where Holly sat on her bed to study.
"I leave the house to go to school at around 7," Karen said. "And by that point (Holly) had already gotten up, put her clothes on and was sitting at the dining room table. I fixed her lunch and stuck her breakfast in the microwave, and I left for school."
Right after Karen left, Holly spoke on the phone with Hannah Reece, her friend and fellow nursing student. Reece was the last of Holly's classmates to speak with her.
"I knew Holly before I started the nursing program, but at the start of the year she was just a nursing classmate," Reece said. "By April, she was like my best friend."
The morning Holly disappeared, Reece and Holly texted back and forth about their test that morning. Reece's cell phone signal was weak.
"So around seven o'clock, I called her on her cell phone from my house phone," she said.
Holly told Reece she was going to eat breakfast and put her shoes on and said goodbye.
"All right, Weece," Holly said, calling Reece by her nickname. "I'll see you. Love you."
Holly studied at the kitchen table for a few minutes, then got a call from her boyfriend, Drew Scott, who had been turkey hunting on the other side of Decatur County on Holly's grandmother's property. Since April 2, the opening day of turkey season, hunters from around the state had been entering the woods a half hour before daybreak.
One of Karen's relatives did not recognize Drew and his dad, and Drew explained to them that he was Holly's boyfriend and that Holly's grandmother, Karen's mother, had given him permission to hunt on her 60 acres on the south end of the county. Drew called Holly and told her what happened. That was just before 7:30 a.m., according to the family.
A flurry of phone calls followed between Holly, Drew and Karen about the confusion over Drew hunting on Karen's mother's property.
Karen said she last spoke with her daughter between 7:30 and 7:35, while Clint was still asleep in his room.
Investigators have tried to determine what happened to Holly in the next 20 minutes.
Authorities say they need people to speak up if they saw anything out of the ordinary that morning.
"I urge citizens to go back to that day and think if anything stands out to you," said Decatur County Sheriff Roy Wyatt. "It may be something they saw that could lead to Holly."
Reece said Holly usually arrives in class around 7:55 a.m., sometimes earlier. Karen said the drive from their home to the school in Parsons is about 10 minutes.
"Holly usually leaves around 7:45, and that would put her getting to school at 7:55," Karen said. "But I figure that morning she was planning on being a little early because they had the big test."
James Barnes, a neighbor of the Bobos', lives about 350 yards away in a mobile home beside his mother's home. The neighbors are separated by a ravine and a small pond.
Barnes said he walked out of his home at about 7:40 that morning as he prepared to go to his construction job and heard a scream from the Bobos' house. He told his mother, Cathy Wise, about the scream and went to work.
Wise called the school where Karen taught and told a secretary she did not want to alarm Karen, but that her son heard a scream from the Bobos' house. Karen was in the cafeteria away from her cell phone, and a secretary found her and relayed the message.
Clint, who is 25, woke up around this time and called his mother. He did not hear the scream.
"The dog woke me up barking, and I looked out front and expected to see the electric truck or something," Clint said. "I woke up about 7:50, and I expected to see someone checking the meter, but I didn't see any vehicles.
"I looked out the window and saw Holly's car still here, and I knew she wasn't in the house because I had looked in her room," Clint said. "That's when I called Mom to ask her if Holly had caught a ride with someone or if she didn't have school, but she didn't answer."
Karen said she did not answer her son's call because she left her phone in a classroom. After she received the message from the secretary, she went into the school library, not far from the cafeteria, and called home to ask if everything was OK.
When Clint answered the phone, he said Holly's car was still at the house.
"At that point I knew something was wrong because Holly should have already gone to school," Karen said. "I hung up and dialed 911."
Clint said he had talked to Holly's boyfriend the night before, and Drew told him he was going turkey hunting the next morning, but Drew had not specified where he was going to hunt. Clint said that even after he talked with his mother, he still did not know Drew was hunting on his grandmother's property that morning.
"It was after I spoke with (Mom) that I walked into the kitchen and looked out the window and saw (Holly) and a man dressed in camouflage walking toward the woods," Clint said. "I called Holly's cell phone, and it rang five times and went to voicemail, and I called Drew's phone also, and the same thing happened. What that assured me was that they were in the same place because neither one of them answered their cell phone."
The Bobos live in Decatur County, but the first time Karen called 911, she said she reached Henderson County dispatch. After a few moments, frustrated, she called the house again, and Clint told her that Holly and Drew were out at the edge of the yard walking toward the woods.
"Oh, my God, Clint!" Karen told her son. "That is not Drew! Call 911!"
Karen said she panicked, but her coworkers didn't understand her concerns.
"It was like I knew, but I couldn't make anybody else understand," she said. "People were like, 'Calm down, Karen,' the secretaries, the principal. I know at one point I fell on the floor, and everybody at school just thought I was in this panic."
Clint described the man as wearing a noninsulating type of camouflage a turkey hunter might wear and said that he could not see the man's face or hands. He believes he might have been wearing gloves and a cap. He said both Holly and the man had their backs turned to him. Clint told investigators the man was between 5 feet 8 inches and 6 feet tall and weighed around 200 pounds.
Karen said she told Clint to get a gun and go after the man. She hung up to call 911 again and reached Decatur County. She still had not told Clint about Drew being on the other side of the county, and Clint said he still believed the man to be Holly's boyfriend.
Clint got a loaded pistol, walked out of the back door and went through an open garage attached to the house. That's when he saw a puddle of blood near Holly's car.
"When I walked out the back door, I saw a small puddle of blood, and I still wasn't alarmed because who I thought was her boyfriend was dressed in camo," Clint said. "I thought, 'He's killed a turkey up here on this trail behind the house and brought it to the house to show Holly before she goes to school.'"
"The thing is there was no turkey," Clint said. "I wondered why they would take the turkey back to the woods unless they were walking back to put the turkey in his truck. I was not worried until the neighbor pulled up and said her son heard screams."
As Clint walked toward the woods, Cathy Wise, the neighbor, pulled up in the driveway because the secretary at school had asked her to go to the Bobo home and make sure everything was OK.
"The neighbor pulled up and she said she heard screams about 15 or 20 minutes ago and that was about eight o'clock," Clint said. "At that time, I had my phone on my side or in my hand, and I don't think I spoke to her, I just called 911 like Mom had said."
Clint said that as he was dialing 911 he could hear the engine of the first patrol car coming up Swan Johnson Road, responding to his mother's call, and that the first deputy arrived in less than 10 minutes from when his sister walked toward the woods with the man in camouflage.
Karen showed up shortly after the neighbor and the first patrol car. Terrie Bromley, a friend from school, had driven her home. Drew was at his job at the city of Parsons at 8 a.m., and Dana Bobo said he arrived home from work at about 8:30 a.m.
Officials have said they think Holly's abductor was familiar with the winding roads and rolling landscape of Decatur County, and that Holly was abducted as she tried to get in her car to drive to school.
As the nursing exam began at 8 a.m., Holly's friend and classmate, Britney Brown, looked around the room for her study partner, who she said never missed class. When Holly was not there, her heart dropped.
"If you miss a test, it's nearly impossible to pass a make-up test," Brown said. "Holly usually walks in five or 10 minutes before a test starts, and she doesn't miss.
Mr. Noatak
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My opinions only, no facts here:
Snipping from your post above: you say, "There is no such thing as the perfect crime, the perfect criminal, or the perfect plan, so imo working to reverse engineer the perp's knowledge and plans is a fool's errand."
I say:
From CRIMINAL PROFILING by MATT ANNISS: "....the FBI method of profiling, which asks criminal profilers to think like the criminal".
From DARK DREAMS- A LEGENDARY FBI PROFILER EXAMINES HOMICIDE AND THE CRIMINAL MIND, BY ROY HAZELWOOD AND STEPHER G. MICHAUD: "Finally, a profiler must be able to view the crime from the offender's perspective; he must think like the criminal".
By practice, criminal profiling is reverse engineering.
So, I have asked myself many times: if I know that Holly has a brother living at home and watch both of her parents leave, why do I then suddenly become unconcerned about her brother and attempt the kidnapping? And there is something else. Knowing that her brother is still likely in the house, why would I spend 10 to 15 minutes hanging out with Holly in the carport before taking her away? This is a crucial paradox and I would bet that the FBI has mulled over the same question. It gives us certain information about the kidnapper. What he knew and didn't know, what he did and didn't do, etc.
Sleuth On!
goldenbear
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Since Holly's brother is searching for her 24/7 he needs to take a small portion of the reward money and buy a rescue dog trained to find human remains to make his searches more effective. Someone in the area needs to suggest this to him.:fence:
In this crime, the answers derived in this manner are going to be meaningless, because they are based on too many assumptions rather than on givens.
For example:
1 All of this works from the idea that the crime was well-planned. But it may have been exactly the opposite.
2 In fact, maybe there was no plan at all. Maybe the entire "plan" was nothing more than a regular drive past the house of an object of obsession, and suddenly the idea becomes: "Whoa, the only car I see is Holly's, so everyone must be gone and she's the last one leaving today. I could grab her and no one would ever know what happened. I think I'll grab her."
3 Or maybe there was a plan, but it was hastily conceived. Such as, go to Holly's house, watch for her to come out, and then grab her if no one is around.
4 Did the perp know CB lived there? Maybe he didn't.
5 Maybe the perp knew CB lived there but assumed he had left already.
6 Maybe the perp was so intent on his thoughts of grabbing Holly, in the moment, that he completely forgot about CB.
7 Or, maybe it was instead a great plan, and the perp acted as he did because he knew that CB slept until noon everyday. Maybe CB would never have woken up at that hour save for the scream and the barking dogs.
8 and so on and so on and so on
We don't know the perp, we don't know how he thinks, we don't know if he is meticulous or sloppy, we don't know if he was well-informed or misinformed, we don't know if he made mistakes that day, we don't know if he was impulsive or rushed, and more. Trying to read his mind on that morning with any degree of certainty is utterly impossible - I've already given quite a few very different explanations, any of which could be true, and I haven't even scratched the surface.
On a broader scale, I would wager that the "profiler" exercise would be more inclined to explore more general-landscape questions (such as, why might a perp have grabbed Holly) and spend very little time trying to mind-read they why's in each and every action taken in a crime. Sometimes, people just do what they do.
Mr. Noatak
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My opinions only, no facts here:
I follow the methods of the FBI profilers, without guilt (no pun intended). Also, the risk of being wrong should never deter the sleuth, as long as they possess no ulterior prejudices or motives in a case. FBI profiles work for both sophisticated and unsophisticated criminals, but have been wrong in some cases and I am aware of many of these situations.
Quoting from your statement #2, above: ["In fact, maybe there was no plan at all. Maybe the entire "plan" was nothing more than a regular drive past the house of an object of obsession, and suddenly the idea becomes: "Whoa, the only car I see is Holly's, so everyone must be gone and she's the last one leaving today. I could grab her and no one would ever know what happened. I think I'll grab her."] My answer: Holly's car was parked BEHIND her house and not visible from Swan Johnson Road. Only an insider would have realized that some family members parked on the main road-side of the house and others (including Holly) parked in the carport and/or garage on the backside of the house.
More importantly, you do present a long list of possible situations/solutions. This great site, WEBSLEUTHS, is all about evaluating a full list of situations and narrowing this to singular opinions. You and I have corresponded before. You know my methods. What do you deduce from the list of postulates that you have provided for us in your recent post, above?
So, regarding your most excellent post above, I MUST present a modified quote from Sherlock Holmes in the Blue Carbuncle episode: "on the contrary SteveS, you can see everything, but you are too timid in drawing your inferences."
Sleuth On!
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