My opinions only, no facts here:
Snipping from your post above: you say, "There is no such thing as the perfect crime, the perfect criminal, or the perfect plan, so imo working to reverse engineer the perp's knowledge and plans is a fool's errand."
I say:
From CRIMINAL PROFILING by MATT ANNISS: "....the FBI method of profiling, which asks criminal profilers to think like the criminal".
From DARK DREAMS- A LEGENDARY FBI PROFILER EXAMINES HOMICIDE AND THE CRIMINAL MIND, BY ROY HAZELWOOD AND STEPHER G. MICHAUD: "Finally, a profiler must be able to view the crime from the offender's perspective; he must think like the criminal".
By practice, criminal profiling is reverse engineering.
So, I have asked myself many times: if I know that Holly has a brother living at home and watch both of her parents leave, why do I then suddenly become unconcerned about her brother and attempt the kidnapping? And there is something else. Knowing that her brother is still likely in the house, why would I spend 10 to 15 minutes hanging out with Holly in the carport before taking her away? This is a crucial paradox and I would bet that the FBI has mulled over the same question. It gives us certain information about the kidnapper. What he knew and didn't know, what he did and didn't do, etc.
Sleuth On!
In this crime, the answers derived in this manner are going to be meaningless, because they are based on too many assumptions rather than on givens.
For example:
1 All of this works from the idea that the crime was well-planned. But it may have been exactly the opposite.
2 In fact, maybe there was no plan at all. Maybe the entire "plan" was nothing more than a regular drive past the house of an object of obsession, and suddenly the idea becomes: "Whoa, the only car I see is Holly's, so everyone must be gone and she's the last one leaving today. I could grab her and no one would ever know what happened. I think I'll grab her."
3 Or maybe there was a plan, but it was hastily conceived. Such as, go to Holly's house, watch for her to come out, and then grab her if no one is around.
4 Did the perp know CB lived there? Maybe he didn't.
5 Maybe the perp knew CB lived there but assumed he had left already.
6 Maybe the perp was so intent on his thoughts of grabbing Holly, in the moment, that he completely forgot about CB.
7 Or, maybe it was instead a great plan, and the perp acted as he did because he knew that CB slept until noon everyday. Maybe CB would never have woken up at that hour save for the scream and the barking dogs.
8 and so on and so on and so on
We don't know the perp, we don't know how he thinks, we don't know if he is meticulous or sloppy, we don't know if he was well-informed or misinformed, we don't know if he made mistakes that day, we don't know if he was impulsive or rushed, and more. Trying to read his mind on that morning with any degree of certainty is utterly impossible - I've already given quite a few very different explanations, any of which could be true, and I haven't even scratched the surface.
On a broader scale, I would wager that the "profiler" exercise would be more inclined to explore more general-landscape questions (such as, why might a perp have grabbed Holly) and spend very little time trying to mind-read they why's in each and every action taken in a crime. Sometimes, people just do what they do.
<BBM for Focus>
Mr Noatak and SteveS, now y'all are talking my game..
"There is no such thing as the perfect crime, the perfect criminal, or the perfect plan, only imperfect Investigations, imo"..
Imo, Holly Bobo's abductor was aware that the clues/residue left in his wake would not be visibly obvious to the seasoned homicide investigator; 'love, rage, hatred, fear, evil'... because they can't be touched, seen, smelled, or heard..
RE:
______________the FBI method of profiling, which asks criminal profilers to think like the criminal". "A criminal behavioral profiler must be able to view the crime from the offender's perspective; he must think like the criminal".
A criminal behavioral profile of the unknown suspect/s is only one tool of many utilized in a missing /murdered person investigation. Profiles are often times used as guidance to point the investigation in a general or specific direction. Behavioral profiles are an ongoing process and may be amended during an investigation as new info and evidence is collected, imo.RE: We don't know the perp, we don't know how he thinks, we don't know if he is meticulous or sloppy, we don't know if he was well-informed or misinformed, we don't know if he made mistakes that day, we don't know if he was impulsive or rushed, and more. Trying to read his mind on that morning with any degree of certainty is utterly impossible.
'IMO, A criminal behavioral profiler not only has to think like the unknown suspect/s and view the crime from the offender's perspective'. To be effective, the profiler must also view the crime from the victim's perspective, as well as the unknown suspect/s, and then must become them, imo. Some folks may even refer to this as emulating or channeling. Channeling evil psychopaths can be very hazardous to your health, imo. Pioneers in the FBI BSU; J Douglas, R Depue, and R Ressler, both touch on this in their books. J Douglas and R Depue, describe the toll that this takes on the profiler's health in their books; 'Journey into the Darkness', and 'Between Good & Evil; A Master Profiler's Hunt for Society's Most Violent Predators'.. JMO
"Imo, there was a vivid picture painted of the unknown suspect/s, as well as the motive in the Holly Bobo abduction on day one; 04/13/2011". Due to the signs, observations, residue left behind, etc., provided by LE pressers & msm reports. There were indicators that the unknown suspect was experienced, organized, very intelligent, investigative & forensically aware, cagey, calculating, and an evil psychopathic sexual predator; no stranger to the game, imo'.
Serial Killers - A Homicide Detective's Take
http://www.expertlaw.com/library/investigators/serial_killers.html
1. Credentials and Interest
2. Common Knowledge
3. Genesis of a Serial Killer
4. Victim Selection
5. Victim Objectification
6. Denouement
7. Case Histories
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FBI Critical Incident Response Group (CIRG)
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cirg/investigations-and-operations-support/briu
Behavioral Research and Instruction Unit
The Behavioral Research and Instruction Unit (BRIU)—originally named the Behavioral Science Unit('BS Unit')—was established at the FBI Academy in Quantico, Virginia in 1972. The BRIU’s vision is to inspire excellence and leadership in the applied behavioral sciences for the FBI and its partners in order to further the FBI’s strategic priorities.
Since its inception, the BRIU has pioneered the development of different tactics, techniques, and procedures adopted as industry standards in behavior-based programs supporting its clients within the law enforcement, intelligence, and military communities.
Behavioral science is concerned with gaining a better understanding of human behavior. The BRIU focuses specifically on criminal human behavior in an attempt to better understand criminals—who they are, how they think, why they do what they do—as a means to help solve crimes and prevent criminal activity. The BRIU’s team of professionals at the National Center for Analysis of Violent Crime (NCAVC) provides cutting edge training, high-impact research, and academic consultation in the behavioral sciences in support of the FBI’s mission and the work of the broader law enforcement and intelligence communities.
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