Hurricane Dorian - August/September 2019 #1

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IceIce9 said:
I don’t like the overhyping the Weather Channel routinely does, and the disappointment in their voices they can’t hide if a hurricane doesn’t turn out to be as damaging as they had hoped.

But the only time most people even watch the Weather Channel is during storms.

Remember the WeatherChannel video that went viral last year when their reporter was acting like he could barely stand up in the gusty winds, and 2 guys in shorts strolled by, seemingly unaffectedly?
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It seems so irresponsible. This is supposed to be "The Weather Channel", granted, most of the time, the weather is impossibly dull and routine. But when something this serious is occurring, one would expect that the "source" for factual information about the tract of a potential Category 5 hurricane would actually be truthful, informative, and not full of drama and hype.
 
mickey2942 said:
It seems so irresponsible. This is supposed to be "The Weather Channel", granted, most of the time, the weather is impossibly dull and routine. But when something this serious is occurring, one would expect that the "source" for factual information about the tract of a potential Category 5 hurricane would actually be truthful, informative, and not full of drama and hype.
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Exactly why I use www.flhurricane.com and www.tropicaltidbits.com. Factual, realistic, no drama, easy to understand information.
 
It seems so irresponsible. This is supposed to be "The Weather Channel", granted, most of the time, the weather is impossibly dull and routine. But when something this serious is occurring, one would expect that the "source" for factual information about the tract of a potential Category 5 hurricane would actually be truthful, informative, and not full of drama and hype.
Click to expand...

I miss the days when John Hope was the hurricane expert on the Weather Channel. He was very knowledgeable and lived one heck of a life.
 
I noticed the snowbirds are coming back to Florida rather early this year, at least where I live.

Earlier in August my brother, who lived in the Orlando area, took a job in Maine, much better salary, in the field of educational technology. Thus avoiding any future FL hurricanes. Spoke with him on the phone at the time, and the bottom line was this: Florida is not for him. Well, we both agreed on that, as I am discovering it is not for me, either.

I'm next in getting out of here.

;):eek::p
 
MaryG12 said:
I noticed the snowbirds are coming back to Florida rather early this year, at least where I live.

Earlier in August my brother, who lived in the Orlando area, took a job in Maine, much better salary, in the field of educational technology. Thus avoiding any future FL hurricanes. Spoke with him on the phone at the time, and the bottom line was this: Florida is not for him. Well, we both agreed on that, as I am discovering it is not for me, either.

I'm next in getting out of here.

;):eek::p
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I agree. I came after Andrew. The heat, bugs, traffic, it wasn't as great as my friends hyped it up to be.

Funny story about "Snowbirds". I used to go to the Florida Panther hockey games. Everyone there is a "snowbird", so no one roots for the home team! They are all wearing "Bruins" shirts, or "Maple Leaf" shirts. Geez, one game, they even did the Canadian anthem. I thought I had transported to Toronto!.

Stay safe!
 
Latest advisory:

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 75.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet
National Hurricane Center
 
Flhurricane.com Facebook post 1 hour ago.
Flhurricane.com (click on the link for the picture he is referring to.)

Good morning! The latest discussion has shifted Dorian ever so slightly westward. The ECWMF, our most reliable model has shifted Dorian slightly southwestward and thus an adjustment to official track was made. The HWRF another very reliable model puts Dorian onshore above Melbourne in 72 hours and leaves it onshore through Georgia with Dorian exiting the coast between Savannah and Jacksonville at 96 hours. I have to believe there are a great number of dropsondes being dropped and balloons being sent up every 6 hours up and down the east coast of the United States to give the maximum amount of data possible for models. What has my concern is the recent pressure drop now to 935 millibars; that's a drop of 5 millibars since the last advisory and one could expect a CAT 5 upgrade today. Another concern I have is that this level of intensity and an outstanding presentation on satellite may induce a stronger upper ridge aloft delaying a developing COL (very weak steering currents) and an ever so nudging to the west before that stall occurs. Looking at the 500 millibar chart from zero Z last night; the upper ridge has weakened ever so slightly but a ridge axis remains in place to the north and NW of the storm with a very small upper low near the TX-LA coast. Height falls along the trough remain negligible. Colors are - red is the upper trough, blue zigzag is the ridge axis, black are upper heights in increments of 10 decameters, green is moisture. Teal is past 12 hour height changes, negative one represents a 10 decameter fall.
 
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Tropical Tidbits Facebook post. The monster is alive! Cat 5 now & never mind the dang eye wall, that wall of water is oh so close. The poor people in the Bahamas.

Tropical Tidbits

#Dorian has strengthened overnight into a Category 5 hurricane with maximum winds of 160 mph. Unfortunately, the storm does not seem able to avoid the Abaco Islands at this point. Conditions are about to deteriorate rapidly there.
 
PayrollNerd said:
Flhurricane.com Facebook post 1 hour ago.
Flhurricane.com (click on the link for the picture he is referring to.)

Good morning! The latest discussion has shifted Dorian ever so slightly westward. The ECWMF, our most reliable model has shifted Dorian slightly southwestward and thus an adjustment to official track was made. The HWRF another very reliable model puts Dorian onshore above Melbourne in 72 hours and leaves it onshore through Georgia with Dorian exiting the coast between Savannah and Jacksonville at 96 hours. I have to believe there are a great number of dropsondes being dropped and balloons being sent up every 6 hours up and down the east coast of the United States to give the maximum amount of data possible for models. What has my concern is the recent pressure drop now to 935 millibars; that's a drop of 5 millibars since the last advisory and one could expect a CAT 5 upgrade today. Another concern I have is that this level of intensity and an outstanding presentation on satellite may induce a stronger upper ridge aloft delaying a developing COL (very weak steering currents) and an ever so nudging to the west before that stall occurs. Looking at the 500 millibar chart from zero Z last night; the upper ridge has weakened ever so slightly but a ridge axis remains in place to the north and NW of the storm with a very small upper low near the TX-LA coast. Height falls along the trough remain negligible. Colors are - red is the upper trough, blue zigzag is the ridge axis, black are upper heights in increments of 10 decameters, green is moisture. Teal is past 12 hour height changes, negative one represents a 10 decameter fall.
Click to expand...
You called it. Cat 5 dagnabbit. Food is cooked. Ice blocks hardened. Important stuff packed. Goin’ for kitty food now. This Savannah fam ready to head for hills. But not yet...
 
The 8:00 a.m advisory from Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES
 
MaryG12 said:
I noticed the snowbirds are coming back to Florida rather early this year, at least where I live.

Earlier in August my brother, who lived in the Orlando area, took a job in Maine, much better salary, in the field of educational technology. Thus avoiding any future FL hurricanes. Spoke with him on the phone at the time, and the bottom line was this: Florida is not for him. Well, we both agreed on that, as I am discovering it is not for me, either.

I'm next in getting out of here.

;):eek::p
Click to expand...

I don’t blame you. I’ve never been a big fan of Florida. Too hot, humid and too many bugs lol.

If you want to go somewhere warm, without winter, try Arizona. It’s absolutely beautiful. IMO
 
imstilla.grandma said:
The special needs shelter is located at 9067 Southern Boulevard, West Palm Beach. If you are registered, you should have received notification. People with special medical needs should register for our Special Needs Program by calling (561) 712-6400 or visiting our website www.readypbc.org.

Palm Beach County orders mandatory evacuations for Zones A and B
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I really hope the elderly & disabled can get out. Hoping their neighbors will take their pets or someone offers to board them.
 
It's still strengthening. Hurricane Dorian Update Statement

Max. sustained winds 175 mph. Gusts over 200 mph. Pressure still dropping, down to 922 MB. Storm surge of 12-20 feet, with higher destructive waves.



SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.73 INCHES
 
The official 2019 S.C. Hurricane Guide and info on downloading the SC Emergency Manager mobile app can be found online by clicking here.

All Lowcountry residents should be aware if they live in an evacuation zone in the event that an evacuation is ordered. To check, visit the South Carolina Emergency Management Division's website and use the map tool (CLICK HERE).

SC Emergency Operations Center at OPCON One ahead of Dorian


Hurricane Dorian: Handy mobile apps to keep you informed during the storm
 
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