Hurricane Dorian - August/September 2019 #1

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Checking in here- from Central Florida-
Thanks everyone for your concern-
I get almost better info here than I do from
my local msm. HAH!
We do have a bit of better news this morning
unless the new wobbles change things again.
Even the good news still brings us into the
cone of high tropical winds which is still
a problem to many. Major tree trimming today.
Hoping we don't loose power like we have in
the past.
Watch out SC and NC, might be your turn next!
 
enelram said:
Checking in here- from Central Florida-
Thanks everyone for your concern-
I get almost better info here than I do from
my local msm. HAH!
We do have a bit of better news this morning
unless the new wobbles change things again.
Even the good news still brings us into the
cone of high tropical winds which is still
a problem to many. Major tree trimming today.
Hoping we don't loose power like we have in
the past.
Watch out SC and NC, might be your turn next!
Click to expand...


I've been checking both MSM and NOAA for news on Dorian, right now, it's like the calm before the storm, it's sunny outside and 87 degrees.
 
IceIce9 said:
The Weather Channel announced that the Orlando airport is shutting down at 2 pm today.
Click to expand...
Hmmmm....local News has been saying Orlando airport will be shutting down 2:00am Monday. A couple of friends who had Monday flights have changed them to today and tomorrow.

Heavy rains then clearing up all day here.

I am so hoping this monster storm keeps moving east and avoids hitting anyone. As much as I am glad it seems like it is moving more east away from us, I don't wish it on anyone! No one knows what it will end up doing.

Here is the latest spaghetti model at boatus:
Dorian : BoatUS Hurricane Tracking & Resource Center
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 73.4W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES
National Hurricane Center
Winds 150 mph!
Florida may get lucky but other states are now having to prepare. One of my daughters noted that Matthew did the same thing last year.
===
State of emergencies are in effect for the entire states of Florida, North Carolina and South Carolina. Twelve counties in Georgia are also under an emergency declaration.

New forecasts say Dorian could spare Florida from a direct hit, but still bring life-threatening storm surge and winds to coastal communities. The storm is now expected to make landfall over North and South Carolina on Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
Hurricane Dorian path shifts, targeting Carolinas, Georgia and Florida
 
The messages recorded in three different indigenous languages will be sent as mass emergency text notifications, and broadcast on speakers in fire trucks around low-income communities.

"Many Guatemalans live in mobile homes. As much as you tell them to please seek shelter, they sometimes don't get it. But maybe the fire truck will help," Jimenez said.

They include Central American immigrants in Lake Worth and Jupiter, elderly people in retirement communities all the way up the coast, and homeless people in parks.

Lawmakers are going to Spanish-language radio stations asking people to go through the hurricane plan with older relatives who live by themselves. Teachers are telling immigrant children to explain to their parents what they need to have in their hurricane kit. Tutors who normally pay visits to teach young children have switched gears to hurricane-proof homes and explain the location of shelters and hospitals.
Before Dorian, Florida groups help immigrants get prepared
 
As a reminder of what storm surge can do, especially combined with high tide, at night in the dark, here is an animation made last year just prior to Hurr Florence hitting the Carolinas. Do not get complacent Floridians!!!

 
PayrollNerd said:
As a reminder of what storm surge can do, especially combined with high tide, at night in the dark, here is an animation made last year just prior to Hurr Florence hitting the Carolinas. Do not get complacent Floridians!!!

Click to expand...


I looked for our guy Levi, this morning. He must only do an evening forecast. He's so good and I totally understand him.

Jmho
 
Simply Southern said:
I looked for our guy Levi, this morning. He must only do an evening forecast. He's so good and I totally understand him.

Jmho
Click to expand...
Yeah he will update after the 5pm Natl Hurr report comes out, maybe a little later than that. He has a day job too LOL! Also www.flhurricane.com uses his posts now so he’s starting to get some recognition.
 
Still inching its way to Bahamas. Cat 4, 150mph winds, traveling west at a brutally slow 8mph.

This is the part I hate most. THE WAIT TO SEE WHERE IT GOES. I’m ok with the stocking supplies, the house & yard prep, the cooking of all things in fridge & freezing blocks of ice. I’m fine with the days without power & water & the clean-up & repairs. I even cope with the flooding. BUT THIS NOT KNOWING WHERE THE D@MNED THING IS GONNA GO IS AGONIZING.

On another note & FYI: Savannah,GA is under emergency alert & some schools, colleges & businesses have already announced plans for closures from Sept 5-10. I personally feel it’s a lil’ EARLY to be deciding that, but prominent officials FORGOT TO CALL & ASK ME!:rolleyes:o_O:eek::D:confused:
 
The drama on the Weather channel is driving me crazy. Seriously? The hurricane tract looks like it has changed more north. But the Weather channel is talking to folks in Orlando?! Seriously? Orlando is one of the safest places in Florida during a hurricane.

Looks like Daytona beach community area is more at risk. Or even further North.
 
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mickey2942 said:
The drama on the Weather channel is driving me crazy. Seriously? The hurricane tract looks like it has changed more north. But the Weather channel is talking to folks in Orlando?! Seriously? Orlando is one of the safest places in Florida during a hurricane.

Looks like Daytona beach community area is more at risk. Or even further North.
Click to expand...
I don’t like the overhyping the Weather Channel routinely does, and the disappointment in their voices they can’t hide if a hurricane doesn’t turn out to be as damaging as they had hoped.

But the only time most people even watch the Weather Channel is during storms.

Remember the WeatherChannel video that went viral last year when their reporter was acting like he could barely stand up in the gusty winds, and 2 guys in shorts strolled by, seemingly unaffectedly?
 
JudgeJoe said:
Still inching its way to Bahamas. Cat 4, 150mph winds, traveling west at a brutally slow 8mph.

This is the part I hate most. THE WAIT TO SEE WHERE IT GOES. I’m ok with the stocking supplies, the house & yard prep, the cooking of all things in fridge & freezing blocks of ice. I’m fine with the days without power & water & the clean-up & repairs. I even cope with the flooding. BUT THIS NOT KNOWING WHERE THE D@MNED THING IS GONNA GO IS AGONIZING.

On another note & FYI: Savannah,GA is under emergency alert & some schools, colleges & businesses have already announced plans for closures from Sept 5-10. I personally feel it’s a lil’ EARLY to be deciding that, but prominent officials FORGOT TO CALL & ASK ME!:rolleyes:o_O:eek::D:confused:
Click to expand...
Where the LOL button! Bahahahahaha..................
 
PayrollNerd said:
As a reminder of what storm surge can do, especially combined with high tide, at night in the dark, here is an animation made last year just prior to Hurr Florence hitting the Carolinas. Do not get complacent Floridians!!!

Click to expand...
Great animation! I know I already posted but the video is an opportunity to repeat some info.

Twice a month, when there's a full or new moon tides are a bit higher, usually only by a few inches. These are called spring tides. When the moon is at perigee, meaning it's closest to earth, tides are raised even more. This happens in spring and fall during new and full moons. These tides are called perigean tides. Sometimes they're referred to as "King Tides" because people get confused over the word "spring," but spring tide is the meterological term.

Today we have a new moon so during the next week tides will be much higher. Perigean tides can bring minor flooding to low-lying coastal areas. Totally unrelated to Dorian, South Carolina is currently experiencing flooding due to high tides.

Storm surge is the rise in seawater levels. Storm tide is the combination of storm surge and and unusually high tides. That's what's happening this week. So imagine the effect a monster storm like Dorian will have! Predictions have it that Dorian could bring as much as 10 to 25 inches of rain.

Long story short (and I hope I didn't make this post too garbled !) even areas not directly in Dorian's path will likely be severely affected. It ain't over for Florida by a long shot and now other states are at risk. High winds and flooding are inevitable and we'll probably see a lot of damage.
Live updates: Hurricane Dorian on path to hit Florida - CNN

Volunteers from my state (Washington) are joining other responders from all over the country who are heading to the east coast to help. This storm isn't about drama, it's gonna be nasty. Time's growing short for those in vulnerable areas - people, do your preparations now!
 
PayrollNerd said:
The eye wall replacement will make everything fluctuate, then it will settle down again. Also, the NOAA Gulfstream 4 jet was headed for repairs, so there's another piece of forecasting that wasn't available.
Dorian In the Atlantic (Less) Likely Florida Bound - FLHurricane.com
6:00 AM Update 31 August 2019
Dorian remains a category 4 hurricane this morning, the intensity may fluctuate a bit over the day as the eye may fluctuate and go through replacement cycles, but in general is expected to remain a major hurricane today.

The biggest change is the chances for Florida impact are dropping as the official forecast has shifted quite a bit to the right, although most of Florida remains under the cone. If this trend continues it would bring much less of an impact on Florida, but it would increase the rest further up the coast into the Carolinas. Most of the common forecast models take it east of Florida and a few take it out to sea today. The Bahamas still are at risk from direct impacts. Florida is as well, but the odds are dropping. Indirect impacts will still be felt regardless, as a shift of only 50 miles or so west would make the impact much worse.

The speed and direction that Dorian follows today could push the models back to the west if the are further south or faster than forecast. Today will be critical for watching that to determine better some of the impacts.

Due to the trend in model track guidance, the National Hurricane Center has not issued a Hurricane Watch yet for any of FL but a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch is possible later today along portions of the Florida east coast.


Florida is not in the clear yet, the NOAA Gulfstream 4 jet that was supposed to take high altitude data sets yesterday had to return to Savannah for repairs, and never made it. The speed and direction of Dorian today and tomorrow will indicate how much of the morning models are handling it.

Listen to local media and officials for information for your particular area.
Click to expand...

More links about the jet and crew.

Does anyone know if it is back in the air yet?
Is that why the reports haven't changed all day?

They keep saying Dorian is going to turn north but it keeps showing west. It reminds me of Andrew which didn't turn and went straight in just below Miami.

NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane grounded ahead of Dorian

All-female hurricane hunter flight crew makes history as Dorian strengthens

ETA "They" refers to The Weather Channel.
 
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