MimosaMornings
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Hurricane Dorian - August/September 2019 #1
- Thread starter imstilla.grandma
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MsMarple
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Oh crap! Thanks for the update! We have 4 unexpected guests coming in on Sunday (not hurricane related) so I was upstairs putting fresh towels and dusting. That's a big jump in such a short period!
Those of us who have gone through hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, pacific cyclones and other disasters - it's interesting how it stays with us no matter how long ago. I do think it's a mild form of PTSD and for some a more serious version of the syndrome.
It wasn't until I joined here back in 2013 that I really talked about my experiences and I believe it has helped me. Reading posts from other members who have gone through hell and even sharing tips has done a great job of reminding me that I'm not alone.
One of the biggest lessons I learned was that stuff is just... stuff; lives are more important.
All of you in Dorian's path, stay safe and please keep in touch as much as possible!
Hugs to all.
PayrollNerd
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Tropical Tidbits
A great video without the hype and drama - this guy is good at explaining what possible scenarios are.
https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http...IHwVCGBIYaFJjITBxOQlE2ukpZEkfdFHvDfks1FpBX_Xo
A great video without the hype and drama - this guy is good at explaining what possible scenarios are.
https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http...IHwVCGBIYaFJjITBxOQlE2ukpZEkfdFHvDfks1FpBX_Xo
mickey2942
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That is so true. We lost everything in a house fire, years ago. And it made me realize how meaningless material possessions are. And 20 years later, I have plenty of clutter!
It worries me that people inland don't think that they are in danger, but the storm surge in Florida can go inland very far. And flood inland waterways.
MaryG12
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Checked NOAA again...now it looks like the central path to the east of Lake Okeechobee instead of directly over it, then straight north to Jacksonville. But I wonder if the path can go straight across the state in my direction along the Suncoast? Does anyone know what role Lake Okeechobee plays in all this?
PayrollNerd
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Based on past history, and my personal opinion, Lake Okeechobee is going to overflow and flood the area. There can be 6’ waves on LO during a storm that isn’t even a hurricane. There have been boaters caught in pop up storms that have never been recovered. The Everglades and those canals will flood too. The Myakka River will flood and water will flow right out to the Gulf of Mexico in the Punta Gorda area in Charlotte County. I-75 east/west corridor (Alligator Alley) will flood and probably close.
Lake Okeechobee dike likely to hold as Hurricane Dorian threatens to swamp Florida, Army Corps says
There are a ton of camping communities with expensive motor homes and “tiny houses” in that area. I sure hope they evacuate ASAP.
As another poster mentioned earlier, please don’t go in the water without waders on. The gators, pythons, copperheads, etc will literally be swimming in the streets.
MsMarple
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Ugh, air pressure has dropped this afternoon/evening from 970mb to 950mb to 948mb. Norm at sea level is about 1013. That means the storm is intensifying. Yeah, I know we know that but as a reference,
Camille (1969 - category 5, winds 175 mph) was 900
Andrew (1992 - category 5, winds 175 mph) was 922
Wilma (2005 - category 5, winds 185 mph) was 882 - lowest ever recorded
Katrina (2005 - category 5, 185 mph) was 902
Irma (2017 - category 5, winds 180 mph) was 914
I didn't count gusts.
Simply Southern
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gregjrichards
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I’m thinking of and praying for everyone including pets and animals who are going to be affected by this monster storm. Please stay safe everyone and check in when you are able.
KALI
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All of these are good, BUT, it's definately a bit of a drop in the bucket for the amount of people who now live in Florida.
Florida's demographics have radically changed over the last decade.
They have had a huge influx of people moving there.
We ourselves have been planning our escape from California to Florida for two years now.
Unfortunately, we are tied up with selling our businesses. But, Florida has been our plan for two years.
Our hearts and concerns are with all Floridians including our family members.
I'm still praying that Dorian is an over hyped news media, nothing burger.
The news media does really lie, mislead and try to make us nuts, for commercial $$$ money.
In my opinion. For once, I hope that that they are all doing their normal exaggerations.
But, I don't think they are.
Mother Nature can be a beast like no other.
Florida's demographics have radically changed over the last decade.
They have had a huge influx of people moving there.
We ourselves have been planning our escape from California to Florida for two years now.
Unfortunately, we are tied up with selling our businesses. But, Florida has been our plan for two years.
Our hearts and concerns are with all Floridians including our family members.
I'm still praying that Dorian is an over hyped news media, nothing burger.
The news media does really lie, mislead and try to make us nuts, for commercial $$$ money.
In my opinion. For once, I hope that that they are all doing their normal exaggerations.
But, I don't think they are.
Mother Nature can be a beast like no other.
Thank you. I was trying to remember earlier the recent really low one ... Irma 914... it was amazing. As you note, today's drop is ominous. And Fox now says Dorian is Cat 4:
Hurricane Dorian strengthens to 'extremely dangerous' Category 4 storm
Max sustained winds now 130mph
MsMarple
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2 am intermediate advisory:
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 72.0W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory
National Hurricane Center
Sustained winds now 140 mph! Next full advisory at 5 am. 'Night all...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 72.0W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory
National Hurricane Center
Sustained winds now 140 mph! Next full advisory at 5 am. 'Night all...
Jax49
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500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019
...DORIAN CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 72.6W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
...DORIAN CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 72.6W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
Jax49
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS DORIAN STRONGER AND MOVING WESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 73.0W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS DORIAN STRONGER AND MOVING WESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 73.0W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES
MaryG12
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I need to shower and get dressed but wanted to check NOAA - Dorian is acting in a peculiar manner.
Then really late last night I saw a news flash online, Gov. Roy Cooper of NC declared his state, a state of emergency, as it looks like Dorian is headed straight up SC to NC. And I have a friend in NC who had to deal with massive flooding from Hurricane Florence last year.
Then really late last night I saw a news flash online, Gov. Roy Cooper of NC declared his state, a state of emergency, as it looks like Dorian is headed straight up SC to NC. And I have a friend in NC who had to deal with massive flooding from Hurricane Florence last year.
PayrollNerd
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The eye wall replacement will make everything fluctuate, then it will settle down again. Also, the NOAA Gulfstream 4 jet was headed for repairs, so there's another piece of forecasting that wasn't available.
Dorian In the Atlantic (Less) Likely Florida Bound - FLHurricane.com
6:00 AM Update 31 August 2019
Dorian remains a category 4 hurricane this morning, the intensity may fluctuate a bit over the day as the eye may fluctuate and go through replacement cycles, but in general is expected to remain a major hurricane today.
The biggest change is the chances for Florida impact are dropping as the official forecast has shifted quite a bit to the right, although most of Florida remains under the cone. If this trend continues it would bring much less of an impact on Florida, but it would increase the rest further up the coast into the Carolinas. Most of the common forecast models take it east of Florida and a few take it out to sea today. The Bahamas still are at risk from direct impacts. Florida is as well, but the odds are dropping. Indirect impacts will still be felt regardless, as a shift of only 50 miles or so west would make the impact much worse.
The speed and direction that Dorian follows today could push the models back to the west if the are further south or faster than forecast. Today will be critical for watching that to determine better some of the impacts.
Due to the trend in model track guidance, the National Hurricane Center has not issued a Hurricane Watch yet for any of FL but a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch is possible later today along portions of the Florida east coast.
Florida is not in the clear yet, the NOAA Gulfstream 4 jet that was supposed to take high altitude data sets yesterday had to return to Savannah for repairs, and never made it. The speed and direction of Dorian today and tomorrow will indicate how much of the morning models are handling it.
Listen to local media and officials for information for your particular area.
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