IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #10

[Bootsctr]

can anyone tell me how the surveillance camera stuff works? i assume LE has access to more sophisticated technologies to be able to view such things. but i have a hard time seeing that the images are actually 2 people on bikes let alone a real description!

not trying to side track the dissuasion, but i am always amazed at what people see/think they see/dont see in these videos! how do they say with an absolute certainty?

Get what you are saying. I couldn't tell who was on the bikes either. Assume the parents would be able to look at the video and tell it was the girls which might or might not be the case. I always assumed Lyric being the oldest was in the lead, but come to find out it was Elizabeth, or so I read it was Elizabeth.

 

[Jules71]

Jules71 I think you and I are on same wavelenght. I was on FB and a friend of a friend, HB has about 12 pix, the 2nd I think is Aunt T, is so not a very appropriate picture, in my opinion. She has one of Aunt T's prior names.

Yep! I saw that pic!

 

[Ollipop]

Here's how it plays in my head.

The girls were instructed to go to the lake.

They were on a mission, and NOT one of their own.

Someone knew they were coming, waited in the "trap".

Called them....quick, you have to come, we have to go to x, its an emergency/surprise, get in the car. Leave your bikes, x and x will get them home for you....or, leave your bikes, its an emergency, we will come back for them...or leave your bikes, they'll be fine.

Whatever. The girls were obeying someone they knew and trusted.

They jump in the car that just happens to come along at exactly the right second (there HAS to be more than one perp imo) and poof...gone.

Not only is this the most likely scenario, I believe it is the ONLY scenario that makes sense. I believe TG saw the bikes around 12.20 and is the one thing that wasn't planned for.

This is OPINION only so no need to get snarky if it doesn't fit yours.

Thanks.

:moo:

This theory requires that we discount the alleged sighting, by a witness as reported by family, at 2:00 or thereabouts. Which I think is reasonable to discount, but that the Missing Posters claim the girls were last seen at 2 near the lake.

Just opinion, but "the most likely scenario," has yet to be determined. That part is definitely opinion. I feel the most likely scenario is that the girls were lured away from their bikes to a vehicle in those woods. The pre-planning, the multiple perps, etc, is less-likely, as is a vehicle "coming along at just the right moment," since, if there was a vehicle coming by, why wouldn't they ride their bikes closer to where they could access a vehicle? Why would they leave their bikes in a spot where they will block a path, why not take a second to move them, why not ride them back, at least, to where the fence ends so that others using the trail wouldn't need to swerve? JMO.

 

[JaimeInLA]

Extremely likely. How do you explain the purse being over the fence on the lake side?

With my suspect, in my scenario, he assumes there is a cell phone in that purse that could pinpoint their location. So he just grabs the purse and says, we'll come back for this too, and tosses it over the fence. It was found EAST of the bikes, in the direction they would have had to walk to get to a car (the closest place you could park a car).

 

[tlcya]

can anyone tell me how the surveillance camera stuff works? i assume LE has access to more sophisticated technologies to be able to view such things. but i have a hard time seeing that the images are actually 2 people on bikes let alone a real description!

not trying to side track the dissuasion, but i am always amazed at what people see/think they see/dont see in these videos! how do they say with an absolute certainty?

Get what you are saying. I couldn't tell who was on the bikes either. Assume the parents would be able to look at the video and tell it was the girls which might or might not be the case. I always assumed Lyric being the oldest was in the lead, but come to find out it was Elizabeth, or so I read it was Elizabeth.

I too am amazed that the video we have seen ala MSM is very grainy, very distant and I could merely identify two riders, one followed by another. I could not identify adult or child, make of bikes, clothing worn, not even color.

My own thought is that the quality of video being released to press is not the more enhanced version I believe the FBI has. I think they did a lot of work "cleaning up" the images on the video and that along with stills of those images is what LE and family have seen to identify that the video is indeed of the two girls. That MUST be the case or otherwise I cannot imagine anyone being able to positively ID anyone on the video as we have seen it.

 

[violet67]

Here's how it plays in my head.

The girls were instructed to go to the lake.

They were on a mission, and NOT one of their own.

Someone knew they were coming, waited in the "trap".

Called them....quick, you have to come, we have to go to x, its an emergency/surprise, get in the car. Leave your bikes, x and x will get them home for you....or, leave your bikes, its an emergency, we will come back for them...or leave your bikes, they'll be fine.

Whatever. The girls were obeying someone they knew and trusted.

They jump in the car that just happens to come along at exactly the right second (there HAS to be more than one perp imo) and poof...gone.

Not only is this the most likely scenario, I believe it is the ONLY scenario that makes sense. I believe TG saw the bikes around 12.20 and is the one thing that wasn't planned for.

This is OPINION only so no need to get snarky if it doesn't fit yours.

Thanks.

:moo:

i see this as a very likely scenario - thing is i just can't quite figure if it was for nefarious purposes or to avoid nefarious purposes. Something about WC's quick retraction of the theory of revenge due to DM's "narcing" niggles at me. There is so much stuff going on behind the scenes with LE that we are not privy to.

 

[RNER]

Someone posted a post on last thread about Who saw the girls last. Who knew the family schedule. Who.... well you get the picture. It was a list. I don't know how to quote from another thread. But my point is the why? What motive could this person have? I will think on this all day because I have been leaning on this side of the fence for awhile.

Lots of motives (Ilisted those too)...I also posted that if you find the motive, you find the girls!

 

[voxrock2000]

If Misty had just started her job the day before, i wonder how the daily routine changed? Where did Lyric spend her days prior to misty working? What did she do all day before that?

 

[hollyblue]

I think it a great scenario! From the video, those girls were definitely riding those bikes with a mission. I had thought maybe they were in a hurry to get to the lake, do whatever they had planned and get back before grandma found out. But, what you say makes good sense too ~ they were in a hurry because they were meeting someone.

What are the chances it's not the girl's riding the bikes and others had knowledge of the camera(s) to use in a ruse for time? imo

 

[SapphireSteel]

This theory requires that we discount the alleged sighting, by a witness as reported by family, at 2:00 or thereabouts. Which I think is reasonable to discount, but that the Missing Posters claim the girls were last seen at 2 near the lake.

Just opinion, but "the most likely scenario," has yet to be determined. That part is definitely opinion. I feel the most likely scenario is that the girls were lured away from their bikes to a vehicle in those woods. The pre-planning, the multiple perps, etc, is less-likely, as is a vehicle "coming along at just the right moment," since, if there was a vehicle coming by, why wouldn't they ride their bikes closer to where they could access a vehicle? Why would they leave their bikes in a spot where they will block a path, why not take a second to move them, why not ride them back, at least, to where the fence ends so that others using the trail wouldn't need to swerve? JMO.

Above BBM just to point out the only people who are saying a witness sighted them at two, is family.

LE have only confirmed the 12.15 sighting.

The person who set this up wanted LE to believe they were abducted by a random, and go haring off over the countryside to find them. The family insisted it was an abduction all the way along...they have actually appeared to me as if they have been attempting to guide the investigation.

:maddening:

I will quote DM again -

"The area where the bikes were found is fenced on both sides, and it is right where maintenance gate is it is a spot that looks to me like a trap," Dan Morrissey said. "Somebody could have just come along right then or followed them down it would have been the worst spot to be in right there."

He's there on the scene, he knows the girls, and that's how he thinks it happened.

I think he's right.

:moo:

 

[azuredewdrop]

Mr Pahl, who owns the cctv, says there were no other cyclists on film for the entire day.

wonder what he would say about cars that fit description of those said to be searching prior to the official bikes finding.

 

[Marilynilpa]

With my suspect, in my scenario, he assumes there is a cell phone in that purse that could pinpoint their location. So he just grabs the purse and says, we'll come back for this too, and tosses it over the fence. It was found EAST of the bikes, in the direction they would have had to walk to get to a car (the closest place you could park a car).

In your scenario, is your suspect known to the girls, or a stranger?

As a former little girl, I would definitely not go willingly with anyone who tossed my purse.

 

[RNER]

Is it possible that the girls were riding different bikes that day? That their real bikes were placed at the scene by someone else? I can think of a few reasons to convince them to leave their real bikes and ride different ones. That could explain the siting by tg at 1220ish and the girls on video at1215ish.

How 'bout different bikes at 1220ish and different bikes at 4:00ish, hence why the description of bikes has not been specifically given?

 

[SapphireSteel]

What are the chances it's not the girl's riding the bikes and others had knowledge of the camera(s) to use in a ruse for time? imo

About zero IMO.

There were no other cyclists on the street that day...just our girls.

 

[Bootsctr]

i see this as a very likely scenario - thing is i just can't quite figure if it was for nefarious purposes or to avoid nefarious purposes. Something about WC's quick retraction of the theory of revenge due to DM's "narcing" niggles at me. There is so much stuff going on behind the scenes with LE that we are not privy to.

One of the things that niggles at me is regarding the video that was subpoened by LE of the interview with MCM and WC. The reporter specifically asks MCM why did you get an attorney which she answers in great detail - 3 minutes of detail. Grandma doesn't make a peep. There is NO plea whatosever to whomever might have the children to please bring them back. I mean if my kid was missing and everytime someone shoved a camera in my face I would be pleading for whomever had them to please bring them back. :banghead:

 

[JaimeInLA]

Above BBM just to point out the only people who are saying a witness sighted them at two, is family.

LE have only confirmed the 12.15 sighting.

The person who set this up wanted LE to believe they were abducted by a random, and go haring off over the countryside to find them. The family insisted it was an abduction all the way along...they have actually appeared to me as if they have been attempting to guide the investigation.

:maddening:

I will quote DM again -

"The area where the bikes were found is fenced on both sides, and it is right where maintenance gate is it is a spot that looks to me like a trap," Dan Morrissey said. "Somebody could have just come along right then or followed them down it would have been the worst spot to be in right there."

He's there on the scene, he knows the girls, and that's how he thinks it happened.

I think he's right.

:moo:

^^^^^^^^
YES! That! Especially when WC said, "everybody knows that Dan narc-ed on a ton of people!"

Deflection, of the highest order, IMO.

I still want to know what WC said to KWWL on 9/19 or 9/20 that LE wanted to look at so badly.

 

[pearl]

i see this as a very likely scenario - thing is i just can't quite figure if it was for nefarious purposes or to avoid nefarious purposes. Something about WC's quick retraction of the theory of revenge due to DM's "narcing" niggles at me. There is so much stuff going on behind the scenes with LE that we are not privy to.

Hi ya'll. I don't post much on this thread but do read it whenever I have the chance. I think ya'll are doing a great job following this case. From the little I have read which is not as much as most of you, I keep coming back to the closeness in time of this disappearance and Lyric's father's upcoming drug charges being decided in court. I tend to think about things using the one that has the least amount of variables. In my opinion, I think the disappearance is related to the court stuff.

 

[JaimeInLA]

wonder what he would say about cars that fit description of those said to be searching prior to the official bikes finding.

Can you see the Collins' driveway from that video camera? If not, they could always just say they went the other way.

 

[JaimeInLA]

In your scenario, is your suspect known to the girls, or a stranger?

As a former little girl, I would definitely not go willingly with anyone who tossed my purse.

Known. Kind of new-ish in their lives. But definitely known.

 

[tlcya]

If Misty had just started her job the day before, i wonder how the daily routine changed? Where did Lyric spend her days prior to misty working? What did she do all day before that?

This is pure speculation because the answers to these very good questions are not known.

MCM and Lyric had been living with MCM's mom WC in Waterloo for a bit. This, I believe, is because of MCM and DM's separation and marital troubles. She and Lyric reside in WC's home in Waterloo and DM resides in his own mother's home in Waterloo as well.

TB also resides in Waterloo I think. We know that 4 days prior to the abduction Lyric and a cousin TB's daughter (reportedly 11) played together in Waterloo.

H and D Collins, Elizabeth's parents reside in Evansdale where the abduction took place.


MOO - no links no facts. Lyric played around the neighborhood in Waterloo with various adults supervising from day to day. Sometimes gramma, sometimes mom, sometimes Aunt T. I also believe that she may have accompanied her gramma to Aunt H's house in Evansdale on occasion when gramma was driving over there to assist H.