I'm not from the area. It's hard to tell. The picture taken on July 14 seems to show shoreline before the lake was drained. This is a close up cropped portion of the original photo.
I think it was MNDad that posted the picture a couple of days ago and said that it was from July 14, which was before the lake was drained. Here's a picture of the police with a dog ... also on the lakeside of the fence:
Your explanation makes sense, but I have read other posts that made it sound like "oh that is icky, no one would go that way"
I agree they could have gone along the shoreline, and that it appears to be easily passable, but remember that those bushes there aren't two-dimensional...they stick out over the water. From the angle in this pic, we can see the shoreline, but even standing there on the jetty, its not so obvious. And, while it is all the way across the lake, standing out on the other side of the fence gives you the sense that everyone at the parking area, everyone in any of the houses, etc, can see you. It "feels" exposed, vs the trail there, which is at least partially obscured.
I don't think we'll know, or it will matter. If they were there, they got out of there, and quickly, by either route. I think Maiden Lane is plausible, I think a car on Arbutus is plausible.
A couple of possibilities:
The girls laid the bikes down themselves, were out on the jetty when approached, and led away by the shore or the path, and Lizzie simply never picked her purse up from where she set it down.
The girls had been on the jetty, Lizzie had set her purse down, and they made their own way back to Maiden Lane - by shore or by trail and around the fence, and were approached back there. Maybe they had something secret they were up to, like smoking a cigarette or some other forbidden treat, or were lured.
The girls were on their bikes there on the trail when approached, the purse was tossed or dropped during the "getaway."
The girls were at some other location when approached, and the bikes found their way to the lake w/o the girls - by the perps, by someone aiding the perps, or by teens/bike thieves.
I think we all agree that the simplest scenario is the most likely.
At any rate, the details and evidence that may explain how it exactly happened elude us, however they left the trail or the lake area, so this question may never be answered, and even knowing the answer wouldn't change much.
I'm getting more and more hung up on what the FBI said about the passage of time not concerning them with respect to them strongly believing the girls are alive. What connotations would that have, considering this latest statement by LE, about "minor" or "unintentional" roles. I should think that anyone who thinks they are sitting on info is doing it purposefully at this point.
Just some late-night ramblin, MOO.