IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

[FrayedKnot]

Okay, I'm a verified dog trainer on WS and I have some experience with SAR dogs. I started watching scent work as a teenager when I fox hunted (a sport that is usually blood free and way too fun).

Your ordinary every day house pet with no training at all will tend to track from the oldest scent to the newest scent. It's instinct. Mother Nature didn't let proto-wolves that tracked backwards eat often enough to reproduce. Fifi the Chihuahua will naturally do this between her stints on the couch eating bonbons.

Humans, we are not so bright about scent and tracking. I suspect that dogs are certain we are noseblind and hence mentally impaired. An inexperienced human can manage to train their dog to track backwards. It's a common mistake for newbie tracking handlers to make.

However, the FBI doesn't spend money to fly in newbie handlers to incident scenes. FBI handlers are experienced and have the training logs detailing thousands of hours of training and the results so that they can testify in court if need be.

So I think we can rule out two FBI handler/dog teams making the exact same newbie handler mistake of teaching a dog to track from newest to oldest scent. Sure, dogs make mistakes but the exact same mistake? Nah.

If the newest scent was on the bicycles, the dogs should have cast around and just kept going back to the bicycles, saying with their behaviour "newest scent is right here on these bikes, boss."

As for picking up scent left by belongings in other places. There is lots and lots of research (mostly carried out by the DoD) that supports the idea that dogs are tracking the millions of skin cells that fall off the human body every day. They are called skin rafts because they aren't just skin cells, they also have skin lipids (oil) plus the bacteria and fungus that colonise every normal human being's skin.

It is possible to lay a scent using something that belongs to someone. Ideal would be to use a piece of clothing that had been worn for hours, got good and sweaty. Dragging that item along the ground will leave a trail that a dog will follow. The part of the item that has been in contact with the human being should be dragged on the ground to leave a scent. Carrying the item along off the ground without touching anything will not lay enough of a track for most dogs to work in a committed manner.

Again, the dog will follow a drag from the oldest to the newest scent.

We know where the bikes ended up. If they had been used as drags, the newest scent would, again, be right there on the bicycles.

According to uneducated observers and supported by Sandy Breault's comments about the dogs indicating that the girls' scent was found lakeside by the dogs, I think we can rule out the bikes having been used as drags.

So, I've gotta go with Sandy Breault: the dogs indicated that the girls were at the lake that day.

...can I talk about fox hunting now? <just kidding>

Very helpful post, Grainne, and easy for even me to understand. Thanks button wasn't enough! :goodpost:

 

[imamaze]

Working on a new thread, will be closing this one in a few...

 

[cindersoot]

Canadian police say it's an adult, but a ten yr old can wear an adult LG. bicycle helmet. Average 10 year old girls head circumference is 19" to 20 1/2". Adult woman average is 21" to 23" head circumference. Lyric is a big girl for her age.

 

[imamaze]

OK... New thread is ready to go, will close this one in one minute. Please continue here...

IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, and Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #16 - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

 

[MNDad]

The paddle boat has me stumped. I just don't think a paddle boat was used unless it's some perp who lives on the lake or is very close. I still go back to the empty house for sale on the lake.

The request for the paddle boater could have not been as a suspect but as an additional witness to corroborate other times that had already been reported. Flee via paddle boat doesn't make sense to me (again unless it is to a local dock as the final destination).

 

[MNDad]

This is not correct.

6.8 miles one way via Cedar Valley Nature Trail

 

[Jax49]

The request for the paddle boater could have not been as a suspect but as an additional witness to corroborate other times that had already been reported. Flee via paddle boat doesn't make sense to me (again unless it is to a local dock as the final destination).

And 'local dock' could tie back to the homeowner who reported his/her paddleboat had been used?????????

 

[cindysue]

Does anyone know if LE searched the empty house by lake after the girls went missing?

 

[otto]

I don't know.

I keep wondering if perhaps Mr P misspoke and what he really meant was that the camera is 8 minutes fast.

That would blow the timeline wide open.

Or Mr TG was mistaken in some way (not lying but making an honest mistake).

Obviously, if we accept Mr P's observation about his camera's time and Mr TG's observation of the bicycles, the thing is impossible. It's impossible even if what Mr TG saw was staged.

I don't see how the bicycles could travel 1.5 miles, via girl power or via vehicle.

The only way that we can begin to make the cyclist's tip fit is to re-write the FBI statement such that jogger = cyclist, 8 minutes slow = 8 minutes fast, or two children ride almost twice as fast as the average speed of children 3-5 years older.

It feels a bit like trying to make the facts fit the theory, which is consistent with the dangers of tunnel vision.

 

[otto]

I'm not sure why it's surprising he's an avid bicyclist. If you check out pictures of RAGBRAI (the Register's Annual Great Bike Ride Across Iowa), you'll see people carrying a whole lot more spare weight than TG.

And the vast majority of those people ride 40-100 miles per day during the last full week of July. Which usually means really hot, muggy weather.

The nice thing about bicycling is that with relatively little effort, you can get going fast enough to create a breeze on your face. The frustrating thing about bicycling is that it is so efficient at converting muscle power into forward momentum that it doesn't burn calories at nearly the rate things like jogging or swimming do.

I mean, I'm positive that if my 84 year old father still had the interest, he could complete RAGBRAI.

There's a photo of the cyclist on this webpage:

http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/up...cle_18411a90-cd32-11e1-a656-0019bb2963f4.html

 

[Considering]

He lives in N. Waterloo. Im not sure but it has to be about 10 miles.

N. Waterloo?

 

[janie]

Yes! I have to say it did rain a lot, all night and that morning. I live about 2 miles East of the Collins home, so I doubt they received less rain than I did! I would not water my lawn after the rain we received, but we have been in a drought, and well, I know how some people are about their lawns, so I assume it could happen.

I don't recall having much rain then as I was also watering my yard a lot that month. Here are rainfall totals posted by KWWL meteorologist Schnack for July 12-13, 2012 from 7 am Thursday to 7 am Friday:


http://addins.kwwl.com/blogs/weather/category/precipitation-totals/page/2

24 Hour Rain Totals

7 AM Thu to 7 AM Fri

At the time of the reports rain was still falling in some locations in eastern Iowa. I will post another set of 24 hour rain totals Saturday morning.

Location County Rain
Waterloo Black Hawk 0.04
Dubuque Dubuque Trace
Cedar Rapids Linn 0.45
Iowa City Johnson 0.00
Anamosa 3SSW, IA Jones 0.45
Cedar Falls 1.4 SSE Black Hawk 0.23
Central City 6.7 W Linn 0.47
CHARLES CITY, IA Floyd T
CRESCO 1NE, IA Howard T
Decorah 7.9 ENE Winneshiek 0.06
DORCHESTER, IA Allamakee 0.44
Dubuque #3, IA Dubuque 0.02
EDGEWOOD, IA Clayton 0.25
ELKADER 6SSW, IA Clayton 0.13
Ely 0.5 SE Linn 0.88
FAYETTE, IA Fayette 0.04
GARWIN, IA Tama 0.95
GRUNDY CENTER, IA Grundy 2.00
HAMPTON, IA Franklin 0.01
IOWA FALLS, IA Hardin 0.02
KESLEY 3 NNE, IA Butler 0.05
LANSING 4SE, IA Allamakee 0.33
Latimer 1.9 NE Franklin T
LOWDEN, IA Cedar 0.20
MANCHESTER NO. 2, IA Delaware 0.17
Marion 1.2 NE Linn 0.48
Monticello, IA Jones 0.18
North Liberty 1.0 ENE Johnson 0.08
OELWEIN 1E, IA Fayette 0.07
PARKERSBURG, IA Butler 0.84
STANLEY 4 W, IA Buchanan 0.33
STRAWBERRY POINT, IA Clayton 0.82
SWISHER, IA Johnson 1.17
TOLEDO 3 N, IA Tama 0.18
TRIPOLI, IA Bremer T
VOLGA 1NE, IA Clayton 0.03
Waterloo 1.8 SSE Black Hawk 0.50
Waterloo 3.0 NNW Black Hawk 0.05
WAUCOMA , IA Fayette 0.44
Waucoma 3.2 S Fayette 0.09
WAUKON, IA Allamakee T

Posted under Precipitation Totals
This post was written by Schnack on July 13, 2012

 

[janie]

lol... I'm sorry I shouldn't be laughing, this is a serious thing, but the last few hours I feel like I've been selling V8 and People mag! Sorry about that. I don't work for either one and didn't intend to be giving a sales pitch for either of them.

Related to the temperature I agree with you. I thought it was supposedly one of the cooler days they've had. If it was humid it might still feel pretty hot but I thought the high was low 80s (I'll try to find the link again). That's certainly hot but sounds like a mild day compared to how it is there sometimes in mid-July.

Here are the temperatures and rainfall for July in Waterloo:

http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/ju...cle_ddc0f200-dd8a-11e1-957f-001a4bcf887a.html

July 12 (high)91 (low)55 (rainfall).00

July 13 (high) 83 (low)68 (rainfall) .17

 

[Jax49]

There is a report on MSM that a foot and a head of a female of unknown age or height, has been found in a river near Toronto, CA, which is about 13 driving hours from Waterloo area. The foot has yellow nail polish on it. I think it is unlikely that it is one of the girls, but there is no more info at this point in time. I'm just noting it and asking if anyone knows if one of them was wearing nail polish...yellow is something more likely to be worn by a younger rather than older person. MOO

More body parts found in Canada.
http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/08/17/hands-mississauga/

Police searchers found two hands, a left and a right hand, in the Credit River in Mississauga Friday, near where they found a head on Thursday.
“Within the last couple of hours, our search team has discovered and seized and found two hands. Both a left hand and a right hand,” Sgt. Pete Brandwood told reporters at 3 p.m.

 

[dotr]

yellow nail polish? What are you talking about? Thirteen hours away? I don't know how to measure distance by hours. Are you talking about approximately 800 miles?

CANADA Canada - Mississauga - Fem Body parts in Credit River - Aug'12 - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community