IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #18

[iamnotagolem]

Thanks for asking. After posting that I finished catching up on the thread and was thinking more. I realized my head thinks they're probably not alive, but my heart really wants them to be and I keep trying to "override" the logical possibilities. If that makes any sense.

I don't have a specific theory in mind. A number of possibilities, but no specific theory. When you asked those questions, where and why? I can't think of a good answer that also leads to them being alive.

If I were to re-answer the question I'd have to say no, I don't think they are alive. I desparately want them to be, though (as I know we all do).

I feel ya, I desperately want these girls to be alive, but realistically I know that they aren't. I think in my head I'd feel better knowing they were killed inside an hour of them being taken rather than being held alive somewhere and killed later, for a couple of reasons. 1. If the girls were kept somewhere their suffering would most likely be prolonged 2. The parents pain knowing their kids waited for them to rescue them and they weren't rescued

Sometimes I even think of random highly unlikely scenarios where someone kidnapped them and took them on some extravagant vacation and haven't hurt the in the least, just a batty, crazy old lady who wanted to have fun with her money before she kicked it. I know incredibly unrealistic, but it sounds so much better than reality.

 

[TxLady2]

You can read the entire CARP (Child Abduction Response Plan - a best practice guide by the FBI) at the link, it is compelling (exhausting) reading.

The manpower required to properly handle a child abduction is mind boggling and no amount of training could prepare or equip a small sherrifs department to do the job of 50 people when there's only 5 on staff.

When two kids go missing at or near a lake, it is part of the CARP to search that lake. To not do so is completely against procedure as well as common sense (the perp may also know this and used lake staging to slow down the investigation). Local LE did everything right as far as I can see, especially locking down the neighbourhood, going through with dogs, and properly identifying witnesses.

From CARP

The purpose of the initial response is to gather sufficient information to determine what occurred. The accuracy of this determination or assessment is crucial, in that an actual abduction requires a prompt and detailed investigation. During this investigation nothing should be assumed and everything should be verified. Far too often crucial details are overlooked because one investigator thought someone else had taken care of a particular aspect, or a witness’s account of the incident need not be verified because the witness “seemed credible.” A rapid and thorough investigation may also develop additional information that will indicate that the matter is not an abduction. It may be a pretense to cover up the homicide or domestic problems of the reported missing victim, or the child maybe lost or injured or may have run away.At this point the investigation can “stand down” and investigators can take the appropriate action to resolve that matter. It is much easier to redirect the investigation and resources at that point than to make up lost ground and recover overlooked or damaged evidence and/or lost clues because of a failure to initially use all available personnel and resources. A proper assessment should direct the investigation appropriately from the onset.

BBM - I think a proper investigation is what we've seen from the beginning, and what may be perceived as lack of police response is actually them taking "the appropriate action to resolve the matter".

CARP makes it clear that identifying likely motive and investigating in that direction is the focus from day one. It also makes it clear that random abduction is statistically the least likely scenario, and family involvement/coverup the most likely.

In my opinion, the investigation is going in one direction, which is why there have been no BOLO's or community warnings, and an apparent wind down.

I think Evansdale LE deserve a big gold star for the professional way they have handled this from the beginning. It is a massive job.

:star:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/51536616/FBI-Child-Abduction-Response-Plan

Does Evansdale have its own police department, however small, or is the sheriff's department the only LE the whole county relies on? How big is the county itself? How many towns are in that county?
Reason I ask... I cannot envision a sheriff's dept. which handles an entire county having only 5 staff members. That sounds more like a small town police dept. rather than the sheriff's department.
I could be wrong but I was under the impression that there are both, and they're both involved in the investigation.

 

[TxLady2]

Abben was a spokesperson. He wasn't a lead investigator on the girl's case obviously by his statements made live and on the news. What's the lead investigators name Moss? The local detective in charge at one point?

I disagree. He is Chief Deputy, which means he is not JUST a spokesperson, he is in charge of every deputy and detective in the dept. He should be kept informed of every aspect of the case. There is probably an investigator who is team leader, yes, but he would answer to the Chief Deputy who answers only to the Sheriff. He might sit behind a desk and direct the investigation, but that doesn't mean he knows nothing. Some of them actually do go out and do some legwork in the field, though.
At least that's how it works in my county, and I'm told most SD's operate basically the same way.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Does Evansdale have its own police department, however small, or is the sheriff's department the only LE the whole county relies on? How big is the county itself? How many towns are in that county?
Reason I ask... I cannot envision a sheriff's dept. which handles an entire county having only 5 staff members. That sounds more like a small town police dept. rather than the sheriff's department.
I could be wrong but I was under the impression that there are both, and they're both involved in the investigation.

Yes they are involved, as is the FBI, per CARP. (They really do like their acronyms).

 

[eileenhawkeye]

Does Evansdale have its own police department, however small, or is the sheriff's department the only LE the whole county relies on? How big is the county itself? How many towns are in that county?
Reason I ask... I cannot envision a sheriff's dept. which handles an entire county having only 5 staff members. That sounds more like a small town police dept. rather than the sheriff's department.
I could be wrong but I was under the impression that there are both, and they're both involved in the investigation.

There is no way that a county of over 100k people only has 5 people working in the Sheriff's department.

Evansdale has its own PD: http://evansdale.govoffice.com/index.asp?Type=B_BASIC&SEC={C382F505-BDE5-4CF8-9228-DE5E15DC7960}


Here's the Black Hawk County Sheriff's Department: http://www.bhcso.org/

 

[otto]

For me, the issue is the KISS principle.

I am a firm believer that most creepers will go for the easiest, least risky way to get a child.

Standing about in view of lots of people for extended periods of time on the off chance what you're looking for will come by? You could be there all day and not see one. This is not a big town.

Then when TWO happen by, you somehow manage to physically get them off their bikes and tied up one by one? One little girl may be stunned with fear, but you can only HOPE for that reaction. What is more likely to happen is she starts screaming and pedalling faster, thereby increasing the chances of you being caught.

I just can't see this scenario being LIKELY.

Creepers operate in car parks, or by breaking in at night and stealing a child, or driving by one on a road and snatching it in and driving away.

They like quick, sudden, and unseen.

They don't tend to plan involved abductions requiring hanging around public places with car boots open, hoping a child that suits them will come along, then securing the child with zip ties and duct tape at the scene. They grab and go.

Kids are easy prey. This level of planning and risk is excessive and does not fit the profile of a random sexually motivated abduction.

:cow:

If they weren't abducted, what happened to them?

 

[otto]

Just trying to square things up in my head ... yet again ...

Lyric lived with her grandmother in Waterloo. Elizabeth lived with her family in Evansdale. On July 13, Lyric was with her grandmother, who was looking after Elizabeth and her sibling at Elizabeth's house. The grandmother had an appointment at about 1:30 that afternoon.

The grandmother said that the girls sometimes rode their bikes in the parking lot, but that they weren't always allowed to do that. She said that they would ride around the parking lot, as far as where the post office used to be, and then come in for a drink - usually riding for about 10 minutes and then popping back into the house.

If the girls were abducted in the parking lot near Elizabeth's house, then - as someone else suggested - Elizabeth was most likely the target. Lyric was not always in the area, but Elizabeth was, and she most likely spent a fair bit of time riding her BMX bike in the area. At 65 pounds, she would have been the easier target. Was she grabbed and then Lyric tried to help her? Did that also seal her fate?

The manager at the auction shop decided to check the video surveillance to see if the girls were on the tape. On Monday, July 16, he contacted police, telling them that he may have the girls on tape. Police arrived in 20 minutes and spent a day and a half reviewing the footage. They took note of every vehicle in the area. That appears to be the last sighting of the girls. If they rode their bikes along Lafayette to the beginning of the Evansdale Nature Trail, other businesses should have captured the girls on video. The bank, for example, would most likely have cameras and I'm assuming that the footage would be kept for more than a couple of days ... simply because investigating a bank robbery would require knowing what happened in the days leading up to the robbery (see if anyone was "casing" the place"). If there was footage of the girls that came later than 12:15, would it be released? I suspect it would, as it would give police one more location/ opportunity to ask people to come forward with information.

If there is no footage of the girls between the parking lot and the beginning of the trail, then they probably did not ride their bikes along Lafayette. If they rode their bikes South on River Forest Road, why didn't anyone see them? Is that why police were looking at the video footage at the Casey's gas station near Meyers Lake? Were they hoping to see the girls somewhere on the trail? If they didn't see the girls on video from the gas station ... that doesn't absolutely mean that they vanished from the parking lot, but the absence of any video footage from any other location in Evansdale strongly suggests that they did.

If they were grabbed in the parking lot, and their bikes were ditched at the lake, then I think the driver would have gone down the backroads to Arbutus and then to the sewer station on Maiden Lane. I suspect that the bikes were a little to the West of the double gate area and that they could have been placed there by someone walking them through the trees and around the end of the fence. They were possibly thrown down on the path - causing the cyclist to swerve as he came around the curve on the path a few minutes later.

I think that the time lines are tight ... really tight ... so someone had a plan and very quickly implemented it. If this happened, then the person that put them there knew that the path was rarely used ... it was 3.5 hours before they were found, and then only by police. No one else used the path at that time, as far as we know.

Someone working on the road construction would know that the path was rarely used ... I wonder if Lofty's Lounge was one of the popular spots for the construction crews. The fact that this happened on a Friday makes me wonder if it was someone that had second or third Friday off. I suspect that either the abductor had a place prepared where he would keep the girls, or they did not see the next day.

 

[elmomom]

Just trying to square things up in my head ... yet again ...

Lyric lived with her grandmother in Waterloo. Elizabeth lived with her family in Evansdale. On July 13, Lyric was with her grandmother, who was looking after Elizabeth and her sibling at Elizabeth's house. The grandmother had an appointment at about 1:30 that afternoon.

The grandmother said that the girls sometimes rode their bikes in the parking lot, but that they weren't always allowed to do that. She said that they would ride around the parking lot, as far as where the post office used to be, and then come in for a drink - usually riding for about 10 minutes and then popping back into the house.

If the girls were abducted in the parking lot near Elizabeth's house, then - as someone else suggested - Elizabeth was most likely the target. Lyric was not always in the area, but Elizabeth was, and she most likely spent a fair bit of time riding her BMX bike in the area. At 65 pounds, she would have been the easier target. Was she grabbed and then Lyric tried to help her? Did that also seal her fate?

The manager at the auction shop decided to check the video surveillance to see if the girls were on the tape. On Monday, July 16, he contacted police, telling them that he may have the girls on tape. Police arrived in 20 minutes and spent a day and a half reviewing the footage. They took note of every vehicle in the area. That appears to be the last sighting of the girls. If they rode their bikes along Lafayette to the beginning of the Evansdale Nature Trail, other businesses should have captured the girls on video. The bank, for example, would most likely have cameras and I'm assuming that the footage would be kept for more than a couple of days ... simply because investigating a bank robbery would require knowing what happened in the days leading up to the robbery (see if anyone was "casing" the place"). If there was footage of the girls that came later than 12:15, would it be released? I suspect it would, as it would give police one more location/ opportunity to ask people to come forward with information.

If there is no footage of the girls between the parking lot and the beginning of the trail, then they probably did not ride their bikes along Lafayette. If they rode their bikes South on River Forest Road, why didn't anyone see them? Is that why police were looking at the video footage at the Casey's gas station near Meyers Lake? Were they hoping to see the girls somewhere on the trail? If they didn't see the girls on video from the gas station ... that doesn't absolutely mean that they vanished from the parking lot, but the absence of any video footage from any other location in Evansdale strongly suggests that they did.

If they were grabbed in the parking lot, and their bikes were ditched at the lake, then I think the driver would have gone down the backroads to Arbutus and then to the sewer station on Maiden Lane. I suspect that the bikes were a little to the West of the double gate area and that they could have been placed there by someone walking them through the trees and around the end of the fence. They were possibly thrown down on the path - causing the cyclist to swerve as he came around the curve on the path a few minutes later.

I think that the time lines are tight ... really tight ... so someone had a plan and very quickly implemented it. If this happened, then the person that put them there knew that the path was rarely used ... it was 3.5 hours before they were found, and then only by police. No one else used the path at that time, as far as we know.

Someone working on the road construction would know that the path was rarely used ... I wonder if Lofty's Lounge was one of the popular spots for the construction crews. The fact that this happened on a Friday makes me wonder if it was someone that had second or third Friday off. I suspect that either the abductor had a place prepared where he would keep the girls, or they did not see the next day.

There is a well spread rumor that there is another sighting of the girls, but since it is a rumor it cannot be posted here. The only reason I bring it up is to remind myself, and you, that no matter how logical and well thought out a theory is, we just do not have all of the information that is known to LE. In this case, I do believe that there are more witnesses to the path that the girls took that day, and that the stories just did not hit MSM.

Good post, though.

 

[SapphireSteel]

If they weren't abducted, what happened to them?

I believe they were abducted.

I don't believe it was a random sex offender who abducted them.



:moo:

 

[GrainneDhu]

Lyric wasn't that much older. In any case, she lived with the Collins family for several years so I can't imagine her life was *that* much different.

And after she lived with the Collins family (for just over a year, as I recall), Grandma Cook has had custody of her.

If there are any msm links that say that Lyric had a disrupted childhood, I'm not aware of them.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Lyric lived with her grandmother at the time of the abduction. I don't recall that she ever lived at the Collin's home. Elizabeth was almost 9 years of age when abducted, Lyric was 10.

In the first thread for the girls, there were links to Black Hawk County court documents that, as I recall, indicated the Collinses had custody of Lyric for about 18 months. After that, Grandma Cook had custody of her.

 

[LivingJuicy]

Sapphire - without names or anything, can you tell u what your theory is? You may have already and I missed it. I actually respect a lot of your posts and am curious.

If not, I understand.

 

[GrainneDhu]

<BBM>

How could it be a waste of time to check if the girls had drowned? Two bikes and a purse were found next to the shore. Even though the lake was leech infested and not a swimming lake, the facts that the bikes and purse were found there means that they could have disappeared into the water. That possibility absolutely had to be ruled out.

At the same time, land searches were done by volunteers, and investigators were trying to wrap their heads around the various possibilities. One by one, options were eliminated until the only possible explanation for the disappearance was abduction. If police had immediately assumed that it was an abduction, people would be complaining that they hadn't properly excluded the possibility of a drowning.

Children do "go poof" at lakes all the time ... they drown. The fact that the bikes and purse were at the lake when they were abducted suggests that the perp had a huge, potentially premeditated, advantage at the start. Everything was perfectly staged to suggest a drowning. How can investigators be criticized for investigating every possible angle, including the obvious: drowning?

I agree with you.

For example, less than two weeks before Elizabeth and Lyric disappeared, 3 children drowned in the Iowa River in Marshalltown on 4 July. This summer drownings all over Iowa went up because people who weren't proficient swimmers went into the water to escape the heat. Sadly, there were way too many cases where people (not just children) just disappeared... only to be found a few days later downstream.

Draining the lake was not a huge drain on manpower during the investigation. The FBI team that was called in would never have been part of the investigation had water search not been an issue, so they were extras, so to speak. The guys paddling the kayaks around on the lake were volunteer firefighters, again, would not normally have been part of the investigation. The police officers watching the cordon were probably patrol officers, not investigators.

A huge amount of investigation was done that first week while the media were glued to the big, showy draining of the lake. I do not believe that LE drained the lake to mislead the media but I bet they weren't unhappy that the media pretty much glued themselves to the lake.

 

[otto]

The post office, referenced by the grandmother regarding how far they would go.

VELEZ-MITCHELL: When they`ve gone off before, how long did they usually stay out? And would they stay more in the immediate area?

COOK: Yes. It was just like where the post office used to be and a parking lot and then up and down the street, maybe a little ways down on the other side. And they`d come back and check in.

And they were always thirsty, wanted a V-8 juice or something to drink. And then maybe they`d go out for a short 10-minute ride again or something. But it wasn`t a regular basis every day that I would let them go.

VELEZ-MITCHELL: Wilma, did you see them bike off? Did you see them get on their bikes and head out?

COOK: Yes. And they went to the parking lot where the post office is.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1207/17/ijvm.01.html

 

[CHERIE.T]

The girl's family members said the lake was dirty and they knew the girls wouldn't swim there.

People drowning is a nonissue. Making a mountain out of a molehill doesn't make it so.

 

[otto]

There is a well spread rumor that there is another sighting of the girls, but since it is a rumor it cannot be posted here. The only reason I bring it up is to remind myself, and you, that no matter how logical and well thought out a theory is, we just do not have all of the information that is known to LE. In this case, I do believe that there are more witnesses to the path that the girls took that day, and that the stories just did not hit MSM.

Good post, though.

I haven't heard any rumors and don't follow facebook, but let's suppose that police have additional footage from Lafayette.

If the girls were going to ride East on Lafayette, did they head towards the lake from the post office, where the grandmother last saw them? Why were they heading the other direction on camera? In what order did they happen:

1. They rode to the post office, circled back, were seen on camera, vanished, or
2. They rode past the camera, circled back to the post office and vanished.

It seems like the grandmother only looked away for about 10 minutes ... or starting looking for them after 10 minutes, after 15 minutes knew that something was wrong, parents were called and the search began.

 

[Considering]

The post office, referenced by the grandmother regarding how far they would go.

VELEZ-MITCHELL: When they`ve gone off before, how long did they usually stay out? And would they stay more in the immediate area?

COOK: Yes. It was just like where the post office used to be and a parking lot and then up and down the street, maybe a little ways down on the other side. And they`d come back and check in.

And they were always thirsty, wanted a V-8 juice or something to drink. And then maybe they`d go out for a short 10-minute ride again or something. But it wasn`t a regular basis every day that I would let them go.

VELEZ-MITCHELL: Wilma, did you see them bike off? Did you see them get on their bikes and head out?

COOK: Yes. And they went to the parking lot where the post office is.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1207/17/ijvm.01.html

Another great photo, otto. Is "A" where the post office used to be?

 

[GrainneDhu]

Does Evansdale have its own police department, however small, or is the sheriff's department the only LE the whole county relies on? How big is the county itself? How many towns are in that county?
Reason I ask... I cannot envision a sheriff's dept. which handles an entire county having only 5 staff members. That sounds more like a small town police dept. rather than the sheriff's department.
I could be wrong but I was under the impression that there are both, and they're both involved in the investigation.

I'm not sure where the idea that the Black Hawk County Sheriff's Department has only 5 employees came from.

In actual fact, BHCSD has 102 deputies and another 33 support staff.

http://www.bhcso.org/ContentPage.aspx?name=history

Evansdale has its own police department, which consists of 8 full time officers, 6 part time officers and 8 reserve officers for a total of 22 available officers.

http://evansdale.govoffice.com/index.asp?Type=B_BASIC&SEC={C382F505-BDE5-4CF8-9228-DE5E15DC7960}

Yes, the Evansdale PD and the Black Hawk County Sheriff's Department have been working together since the very beginning (Rick Abben is part of the BHCSD).

Black Hawk County is the 4th largest county of Iowa's 99 counties. It has a population of 131,000 people, includes 11 incorporated towns or cities and 6 unincorporated towns.

Much as people who do not live in Iowa like to imagine it is Mayberry, it really isn't. Where I live is more like Mayberry! There's only 17,000 people in my entire county and the largest town has less than 12,000 people. Black Hawk County is way more urbanised.

 

[Gracelin]

Thanks Otto
I don't remember hearing about the post office parking lot before..
Granted, I spend a lot of time down stairs. It's a basement not a rock..

 

[otto]

I believe they were abducted.

I don't believe it was a random sex offender who abducted them.



:moo:

So ... a known sex offender, or abducted for non-sexual reasons? If the latter, what would be the reason for the abduction?