IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #20

[roseofsharon]

One of my alternate theories has been that between 11:30 and the time they were seen on cctv at Brovan, they were asked by someone to courier something. There is no evidence that I know of that would support that, but you are right in asking what I've repeatedly asked myself, why would they defy instructions to return frequently to "check-in", which they would normally abide by. Why, this time, did they go the opposite direction, i.e., to the lake instead of home? If somebody in the neighborhood got them to deliver something to the parking lot at Elmer and Gilbert, they could have been witness to something wrong that went horribly wrong for them. It is not my major theory, but seems somewhat feasible. MOO

ETA: They had a mission, and I believe it was to meet someone, because they had already basically run out of time to go play at the park..they should have been heading back to the house. MOO

The only thing with this theory is that ... would a perp risk asking the girls to do this and take the chance that they could have gone back to E's to ask Gma if it was okay to do. Just MOO though.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I`d like to post these two maps again. They give the last known time and location for the girls.

Otto, your maps have been an awesome aid to figuring out possible scenarios.

 

[TxLady2]

Considering: Read your post of your original theories on the last thread, and they make a lot of sense. Very well thought out and some of the same thoughts I've had.

Otto, I really appreciate your maps so much and I agree with your thoughts, too. Thanks for what you do.

Some of the rest of you have made some good points as well. I have to get ready to go to the doctor, but will catch up later on today.

 

[GrainneDhu]

The thing i cant get past is that they traveled so far right about the time they should be going back home iirc. Why go there when you know your not going to be able to stay and play...Why wait around E's house driving in circles for 40 or so mins then all of a sudden go to the park.. if your purpose was to go off exploring why did they wait to do it..i just dont understand that part.

That part actually makes sense to me.

I think it's possible the girls thought that they hadn't been given a firm time to go home. As I recall, Lyric was supposed to text MCM to let her know if Lyric was at the Collins house or at home in Waterloo at Grandma Cook's house. So apparently at some point that morning, both were options.

In any case, when I was a kid, I'd go out to play without any real plans in mind and then someone would have an idea and we'd all do that. So riding around in circles for 40 minutes or so makes sense if the girls didn't have anything particular in mind.

At some point, one or both girls have the thought "let's go check out the skatepark before Grandma calls us in!" I think that is why they were riding so fast on the cctv footage; they wanted to get out of sight of the Collins house before Grandma called them in again.

I think they were normal kids, pushing their boundaries a bit because that's what kids do.

Once they got down to the lake area, I think they buzzed around some and then decided to ride around the lake.

 

[Sunlight]

So do we actually know how the girl's bikes were placed when they were first found, i.e. were they neatly parked against a fence?

We know the bikes TG swerved around laying on the trail were not the girl's bikes and where were these bikes in proximity to the girl's bikes.



IMO

There is nothing from LE at all to indicate that any bikes were discovered laying on the trail and were swerved around at any time that day. We also don't have any indication from LE that there were any other bikes parked, dropped, laying or seen on the trail that day other than the ones they found, which were the girls' bikes. We don't "know" anything. MOO

 

[roseofsharon]

There is nothing from LE at all to indicate that any bikes were discovered laying on the trail and were swerved around at any time that day. We also don't have any indication from LE that there were any other bikes parked, dropped, laying or seen on the trail that day other than the ones they found, which were the girls' bikes. We don't "know" anything. MOO

That's right, LE has only talked about the girl's bikes!! Hmm!

I wish LE would give us more details.

This case is certainly a mystery! MOO

 

[Jax49]

Doesn't DM have a change of venue hearing today?

 

[hambirg]

That part actually makes sense to me.

I think it's possible the girls thought that they hadn't been given a firm time to go home. As I recall, Lyric was supposed to text MCM to let her know if Lyric was at the Collins house or at home in Waterloo at Grandma Cook's house. So apparently at some point that morning, both were options.

In any case, when I was a kid, I'd go out to play without any real plans in mind and then someone would have an idea and we'd all do that. So riding around in circles for 40 minutes or so makes sense if the girls didn't have anything particular in mind.

At some point, one or both girls have the thought "let's go check out the skatepark before Grandma calls us in!" I think that is why they were riding so fast on the cctv footage; they wanted to get out of sight of the Collins house before Grandma called them in again.

I think they were normal kids, pushing their boundaries a bit because that's what kids do.

Once they got down to the lake area, I think they buzzed around some and then decided to ride around the lake.

Also, didn't Drew come home around 12:30? I wonder if the girls saw him and figured it was ok to stay out because now Lyric could stay??? Idk

 

[Sunlight]

Also, didn't Drew come home around 12:30? I wonder if the girls saw him and figured it was ok to stay out because now Lyric could stay??? Idk

If he got home before 12:23ish when they were on Brogan...otherwise, they were sighted on Gilbert starting at 12:30 according to LE. It is true, they might have seen him.

I am very unclear as to exactly when GMA left to go back to Waterloo to get TB

MOO

 

[cindysue]

That part actually makes sense to me.

I think it's possible the girls thought that they hadn't been given a firm time to go home. As I recall, Lyric was supposed to text MCM to let her know if Lyric was at the Collins house or at home in Waterloo at Grandma Cook's house. So apparently at some point that morning, both were options.

In any case, when I was a kid, I'd go out to play without any real plans in mind and then someone would have an idea and we'd all do that. So riding around in circles for 40 minutes or so makes sense if the girls didn't have anything particular in mind.

At some point, one or both girls have the thought "let's go check out the skatepark before Grandma calls us in!" I think that is why they were riding so fast on the cctv footage; they wanted to get out of sight of the Collins house before Grandma called them in again.

I think they were normal kids, pushing their boundaries a bit because that's what kids do.

Once they got down to the lake area, I think they buzzed around some and then decided to ride around the lake.

I had thought about that too,but then that would make this a random act IMO .how could a perp just see two girls and make a plan in an instant (which is about how long it took I'm guessing) how he would abduct two girls without being seen. I just can't think of a senario that works with this being random because of the speed at which it happened and the setting also. Anyone follow what I mean?

 

[SapphireSteel]

I am mindful that, in the early days, the FBI confirmed that the dogs led them to the water, which is also where the bicycles were found. They also specifically said they found the scent "in the area near Meyers Lake".

In the Evansdale case, Breault said the dogs had indicated the girls’ scent was in the area near Meyers Lake.
“The scent did lead to the water, which is also where their bikes were found,” she said.

http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_e795f002-d1ad-11e1-b983-001a4bcf887a.html

If the dogs led TO the bikes/water, it means the starting point for the scent trail was somewhere else...clearly, somewhere, anywhere potentially, "near Meyers Lake".

Where, exactly? Elmer or Arbutus? Or home? (my guess). I'm sure they know.

Another thought I had - does the scent trail itself somehow indicate staging? Does it stop and start or run contrary to sightings or the laws of logic or science?

:websleuther:

 

[cindysue]

I will never believe the bikes were staged, that's just taking a huge risk.

Also there would be the risk of the perp leaving prints on the bike

 

[SapphireSteel]

I had thought about that too,but then that would make this a random act IMO .how could a perp just see two girls and make a plan in an instant (which is about how long it took I'm guessing) how he would abduct two girls without being seen. I just can't think of a senario that works with this being random because of the speed at which it happened and the setting also. Anyone follow what I mean?

Absolutely.

You would probably be horrified at the amount of "kidnap kits" LE find when searching vehicles. It is common for criminals to carry around everything they need, just on the offchance...like carrying a spare tyre in case you get a flat. It's scary.

One thing that WOULD fit, is a local worker on his lunch break, having a bad day, sulking in his work van, vaguely knew the girls, or one of the girls, called them over...

Lizzie's dad was in business, she may have recognised him as her fathers client and not wanted to be rude...yes, I can see that.

:twocents:

 

[Sunlight]

I just think a perp obsessed with fantasies of young girls being overcome and "taken" if you will, could have spent a substantial time planning out scenarios where he could make his fantasies become reality. That would include how, when, where to befriend and/or lure, and abduct them somewhere hidden from view and as quickly as possible. MOO

 

[CHERIE.T]

The only thing with this theory is that ... would a perp risk asking the girls to do this and take the chance that they could have gone back to E's to ask Gma if it was okay to do. Just MOO though.

IMHOO I think the perp had this so well planned that he/she knew the girls wouldn't have a chance to go back to grandmas.

 

[CHERIE.T]

Absolutely.

You would probably be horrified at the amount of "kidnap kits" LE find when searching vehicles. It is common for criminals to carry around everything they need, just on the offchance...like carrying a spare tyre in case you get a flat. It's scary.

One thing that WOULD fit, is a local worker on his lunch break, having a bad day, sulking in his work van, vaguely knew the girls, or one of the girls, called them over...

Lizzie's dad was in business, she may have recognised him as her fathers client and not wanted to be rude...yes, I can see that.

:twocents:

SS,
That scenario though points to a random abduction. I say there's no way 2 girls were abducted randomly. WHO would take such a chance? I just think that's unlikely.
I think =IMHOO this was a premeditated kidnapping for whatever reason.

 

[CHERIE.T]

I just think a perp obsessed with fantasies of young girls being overcome and "taken" if you will, could have spent a substantial time planning out scenarios where he could make his fantasies become reality. That would include how, when, where to befriend and/or lure, and abduct them somewhere hidden from view and as quickly as possible. MOO

b b m
Imo that's very likely.

 

[foxbluff]

Otto- I don't think the girls rode their bikes to Arbutus. I think LE is asking about that area because it's pretty clear they were taken out that way, if they rode the trail to where their bikes were found. And even if they didn't, Arbutus still would have been used to stage the bikes.

This is just MOO of course.

BBM
Wow, Hambirg, I think that's a very interesting thought. I hadn't considered that, but had considered the possibility that LE could be trying to find out where the girls were not seen but should have been seen if they indeed are the ones that left their bikes on the trail. IMO

 

[SapphireSteel]

SS,
That scenario though points to a random abduction. I say there's no way 2 girls were abducted randomly. WHO would take such a chance? I just think that's unlikely.
I think =IMHOO this was a premeditated kidnapping for whatever reason.

I do not think that is what has happened here myself, but I can see that is how a "perfect storm" type scenario may have occurred...and what other posters may see happening.

My personal theory runs more along the lines of a manufactured "perfect storm" - an abduction intended to look random, but in reality planned within an inch of its life, and not for sexual gratification.

 

[Marilynilpa]

I'm playing catch-up since I've been out all day, but I had to respond to Cherie T.'s post from last night. Someone had posted about a failed attempted abduction by an older man who opened up the door to his van and yelled for two young girls to get in. Thank goodness that didn't work.

Anyway, here is Cherie T.'s post:

wellll, lol,
I hope a lonely old guy would date females older than middle school age.

And really who tries to get dates by driving near women and yelling get in?
__________________

BBM

To which I have to respond, I don't know who tries to get dates that way, but I know someone who could - George Clooney.

Okay, back to playing catch-up.