Found Deceased IA - Mollie Tibbetts, 20, Poweshiek County, 19 Jul 2018 #27

[Mom24]

T&A Travel Center in Brooklyn isn't allowing news camera's onsite? That's pretty odd. KCCI reporter is stating that agents are going door to door around the car wash right now.

 

[MesquiteO21]

Statistics are helpful for looking at what happens across a group in the aggregate, but you need to be wary of applying that data to any individual case. (See ecological fallacy)

"Statistics? Statistics? Statistics mean nothing newbie. As doctors we know that people diagnosed with pancreatic cancer have an 85% death rate within five years, whereas people having an appendectomy have a 95% survival rating, but we both know pancreatic cancer sufferers who are still alive and appendicitis patients who didn’t make it. Statistics mean nothing to the individual. Not a damn thing." ~Dr. Perry Cox, Scrubs

Respectfully understand what you're saying, and I am definitely not suggesting people shouldn't have hope, but at the same time you gotta think realistically too...

 

[Q.E.D.]

Phones ping to the tower with the strongest signal, which is not necessarily the closest tower. Fitbits communicate with the Fitbit app on a phone or other device using Bluetooth technology. This is to the best of my knowledge.

The phone pings to many towers, not just the one with the strongest signal. There are a number of factors that determine which tower will be used for a particular call or text. Here is a good quick read:

Starr, Douglas. (June 2014). What Your Cell Phone Can’t Tell the Police. The New Yorker.

_

 

[duster1979]

I think if it had anything to do with her spending the night alone in that house, the crime would have occurred in that house, and there would be a confirmed crime scene.

I agree. I keep coming back to the dogs being in the basement as was typical when someone left the house with purpose. If she were abducted from the home by force I feel like she would have left them upstairs, either out of fear of not immediately complying with the perp's wishes or as a sign to her loved ones that all was not right.

 

[Mica]

Following

 

[yellowlotus]

T&A Travel Center in Brooklyn isn't allowing news camera's onsite? That's pretty odd. KCCI reporter is stating that agents are going door to door around the car wash right now.

Probably doesn’t want bad juju or reasons to scare off patrons thinking perps hide out there. Understandable.

 

[duster1979]

A traveler who is running low on gas and needs some snacks for the road might.

Except that he'd have to pass the aforementioned truck stop to get there, and likely wouldn't even know they existed.

 

[PaulR]

Except that he'd have to pass the aforementioned truck stop to get there, and likely wouldn't even know they existed.

If you have a smartphone, you can find nearby convenience and grocery stores. Assuming the I-80 exit doesn't have signs saying "convenience/gas store this way" which around my parts they all do.

 

[Kapua]

The case involving Ward Weaver was one of the first scenarios I thought of when MT's disappearance was announced (Kyron Horman is the other). The man who can worm his way into the lives of others, and gain trust among many is a very scary type of predator. (I met him on numerous occasions- my sister-in-law babysat for his girlfriend at the time). I never (ever) would have suspected him in the beginning. But as time passed, and his interviews to the press increased, my hinky-meter began to rise.

This is one of the reasons I believe MT's disappearance involves someone she knew and trusted. Someone she never suspected to harm her in any way, but this person had (or began to have) ulterior motives. I hope I am wrong, and Mollie is found safe and sound. But at this point, my opinion is leaning towards the "someone may have caused her harm" statement made by LE.

All of this is my opinion, of course.

This type of perp is high on my list, too. The woven into the fabric of the community type of guy. The one nobody would in a million years suspect. The "he was such a nice guy" type of perp.

 

[HelpingHeart]

Hello WebSleuths! Like many of you, I am concerned about MT and have found myself on these boards to try to reason what could have happened and perhaps even come up with a plausible scenario that could help lead LE to a perp. Thanks to so many of you for sharing all of these theories and ideas. The concern and prayers do make a difference in these cases, I think.

As a young (20yo) woman I escaped from a serial killer in the West and recently wrote a novel about the experience, using extensive research about his other cases/victims once I found out who the man was (the perp is now on death row in Wyoming if anyone is interested in researching him - Dale Wayne Eaton - in addition, a very similar story to mine can be found here: Robert Ben Rhoades: The Truck Stop Killer). Eaton was an always-prepared opportunist who worked in a general area for dozens of years, growing bolder and more sophisticated with each snatch. He had family, kids, friends even if he was considered a bit odd in his community. He would sometimes hold women for a period of time before disposing of their remains.

After the exhaustive work I did in researching Eaton's victims and similar crimes, I still find myself drawn to cases of young women disappearing in hopes of seeing patterns. The MT case stands out because a) she was not a drifter and she is definitely missed; b) the FBI presence for her case; and c) the gut feeling that the resolution is right in front of LE and the community but somehow but just out of reach.

At present, my (A) theory is MT was snatched by someone who knew her or was familiar with her, even having just seen her jogging before. She likely did not know him. I think she was knocked out after returning to a home - outside either her mother's or her BF's home, and then she was transported to a strange place within the city limits of Brooklyn or very nearby, some underground or secure shed or enclosure where at first the person, who I think is a younger to middle-aged disturbed male, intended to simply assault her. I think he realized he could not let her go and unfortunately continued assaulting her for days or perhaps even weeks until she either become so weak she is barely alive or has tragically perished.

My (B) theory is that the MT disappearance is somehow connected to the Lyric and Elizabeth case from nearby Evansdale (Lyric Cook and Elizabeth Collins) and this is why the FBI is there in such force as they may have a serial on their hands. This could tie into the (A) theory as well.

The (C) theory is a hit and run with massive injuries and then an attempt to cover this up. In my area, a person was killed on the highway and their body so badly hit (by two vehicles) that not much remained. The local authorities got involved after someone found part of a jaw at the car wash. The case took about a year to solve but they got the perp. The small-town LE, in this case, were very open with the public about the information they had.

I think the idea that there is evidence of a perp vehicle at the Truck Stop, one that was also seen in town could be valid but I'm unsure why LE would not release the make/model if so. The attempted abduction in Miner, Missouri is of interest as well, especially as desperate killers will not stop until they find a victim, but why this perp would choose such a small town with one way in/out would be in question. More likely it seems the perp was at least familiar with the Brooklyn area.

***I have a question as to why on the first page of these threads it notes that MT was last seen in denim jeans and a red t-shirt on 7/19 when official flyers note she was last seen jogging in workout clothes on 7/18? Also, was the person who saw the black SUV in town discredited? This would fit with the Miner, MO vehicle description.

Sorry for the long post. I've read almost every thread here on this case and also on Lyric and Elizabeth. As the mom of a sweet and bright daughter, I feel for the families of these disappeared girls and hope with every tragedy we can teach our kids to not just be wary and vigilant but also SPEAK UP when they notice something that makes them feel uneasy. Unfortunately, it's a predatory universe and sometimes even the best defense is of little use with a deranged individual.

Please forgive any unintentional lack of etiquette! This is my first post in the forums. Thank you.

Hi there. I’m so sorry what you went through! I’m sure that was terrifying and I’m glad you got away!
I agree that I think Mollie was taken at home in some form. I also read on an earlier post that there are underground bunker type areas around there. I wish they would check those out.

 

[Stephen Smith]

Ok,

Here is my analysis of the current status of the investigation.

I was initially hopeful that the areas of interest might correlate to some hard evidence that LE were keeping from the public. Unfortunately, after thoroughly reviewing the "finding Mollie" site and creating a layered map of the areas of interest in relation to all of addresses of known stakeholders in MT's life, addresses of witnesses, addresses of interviewees, addresses registered sex offenders in the area, and locations of cell phone towers around Brooklyn, Iowa, I now believe that LE are really struggling to put any cohesive theory together about what happened to MT.


I don't believe they have any new clues or information that we don't already know. Based on my analysis, I am concerned that they either have not received the Fitbit, phone, and laptop data or they have received it and have been unable to conclude anything useful based on it.

I also think that their areas of interest are based purely on tips rather than a theory they may be piecing together from location data. This is substantiated by the fact that their identified areas of interest are a place where Mollie definitely was the night she disappeared (the area near DJs house) and two stereotypical places that a stereotypical perpetrator MIGHT visit shortly before or after committing a crime (a truck stop and a car wash).

I believe the final two areas of interest which LE have not been forthcoming about are thus likely based purely on tips as well.

That said, I was able to locate the names and addresses for all of the property owners residing within the two mystery areas of interest, but I have not had the opportunity to run background checks on them for past criminal history yet. If I find anything of value I will let you know. However, based on satellite imaging of the mystery areas of interest, my initial suspicion is that the reason the areas are of interest to LE is less about the residents than it is about the numerous bodies of water within the boundaries of those specific land parcels. I imagine they may suspect that MTs body might be hidden there.

Overall, I am a bit disappointed in what seems to be an inability by LE to piece together MTs tech footprint metadata into a cohesive and useful picture of what took place the evening of her disappearance. Perhaps, though, I am just spoiled by where I live. I am sure here in California, where all children are gps-chipped at birth, MT would have been located by now.

Edit: I did run background checks on all residents of land parcels within the areas of interest. Nothing significant came back. However, within 2 miles of of one of the areas of interest there is a registered sex offender roughly the same age as MT, who I believe would have been released from prison shortly before the disappearance. I only skimmed his records so don't quote me on that. Whether he still lives at that address I am not sure. His MO would be of interest to anyone following this. I want to clarify that I am not making any suggestions about his involvement in this, I am purely stating facts.

Do not ask for identifying information. For legal purposes I will not give it. This is all public information, and if you are interested you will need to find it yourself.

 

[MsBetsy]

Of course LE might have been canvasing the neighborhood but we've seen no indication they were doing so. My post was in reference to the nonexistent black SUV (and T's instructions).

I understand but THAT was the question I had asked the previous poster and I was asking if it Was confirmed by LE. You are saying it was not so you must have verification. In my opinion it is significant. I thought you were responding to my response to that poster. It gets confusing.

 

[geevee]

T&A Travel Center in Brooklyn isn't allowing news camera's onsite? That's pretty odd. KCCI reporter is stating that agents are going door to door around the car wash right now.

Following up on the requested calls from those in the red dot areas? I don't know what about T&A's though, sounds odd, eh?

 

[duster1979]

If you have a smartphone, you can find nearby convenience and grocery stores. Assuming the I-80 exit doesn't have signs saying "convenience/gas store this way" which around my parts they all do.

But why would you when there's a truck stop right at the exit?

 

[Kapua]

Ok,

Here is my analysis of the current status of the investigation.

I was initially hopeful that the areas of interest might correlate to some hard evidence that LE were keeping from the public. Unfortunately, after thoroughly reviewing the "finding Mollie" site and creating a layered map of the areas of interest in relation to all of addresses of known stakeholders in MT's life, addresses of witnesses, addresses of interviewees, addresses registered sex offenders in the area, and locations of cell phone towers around Brooklyn, Iowa, I now believe that LE are really struggling to put any cohesive theory together about what happened to MT.


I don't believe they have any new clues or information that we don't already know. Based on my analysis, I am concerned that they either have not received the Fitbit, phone, and laptop data or they have received it and have been unable to conclude anything useful based on it.

I also think that their areas of interest are based purely on tips rather than a theory they may be piecing together from location data. This is substantiated by the fact that their identified areas of interest are a place where Mollie definitely was the night she disappeared (the area near DJs house) and two stereotypical places that a stereotypical perpetrator MIGHT visit shortly before or after committing a crime (a truck stop and a car wash).

I believe the final two areas of interest which LE have not been forthcoming about are thus likely based purely on tips as well.

That said, I was able to locate the names and addresses for all of the property owners residing within the two mystery areas of interest, but I have not had the opportunity to run background checks on them for past criminal history yet. If I find anything of value I will let you know. However, based on satellite imaging of the mystery areas of interest, my initial suspicion is that the reason the areas are of interest to LE is less about the residents than it is about the numerous bodies of water within the boundaries of those specific land parcels. I imagine they may suspect that MTs body might be hidden there.

Overall, I am a bit disappointed in what seems to be an inability by LE to piece together MTs tech footprint metadata into a cohesive and useful picture of what took place the evening of her disappearance. Perhaps, though, I am just spoiled by where I live. I am sure here in California, where all children are gps-chipped at birth, MT would have been located by now.

I hear you. But consider that this is a very high profile case at the moment, involving state and federal LE using every means of 21st century technology at their disposal. This task force represents the best LEOs in the land; determined, experienced investigators. And they do NOT want to be outsmarted or embarrassed by the likes of whoever took Mollie. IMHO.

 

[SheriBerry]

I want to post an "if I did it." like OJ Simpson's book, but it would be too creepy haha...

Yea. That’s creepy

 

[CheetosDust]

OT safety tips

My wife has pepper spray too and dont feel bad because it took me forever to convince her to open the package and keep it handy in either her purse or her glove box of the vehicle. Preferably one in each.

Wanted to caution that some of them have a really small volume so be careful with doing any "test spraying" because you want to be sure to have a full canister if ever needed.

I would recommend buying two of the same variety if you want to test fire one to be sure you know how it works. Then have the other unused one ready to go and know how it works.

Also if ever test firing one be sure the wind is going in the same direction as you are spraying. You dont want the wind to take the stuff back into yourself.

Thank you! And yes I checked wind direction and knew it was probably expired so testing it was okay. Great tips and I’ll buy another for the car!

 

[cluciano63]

I think the map = possible ping points and not much else. Jmo

 

[MsBetsy]

I have always felt that she made it back from her run, and that whoever did this followed her home, or was inside once she got back. Her bf probably wouldn’t have passed out without hearing from her since around 7:30-8:30 while on a run. He got the snap (around 10pm) and that was sufficient for him since before falling asleep. Most couples wouldn’t not talk at all for hours and right before bed.

I agree and this was one of my earlier theories. Now I keep changing my mind but this is still a possibility, in my mind. There is alot that backs that up

 

[Jax49]

I understand but THAT was the question I had asked the previous poster and I was asking if it Was confirmed by LE. You are saying it was not so you must have verification. In my opinion it is significant. I thought you were responding to my response to that poster. It gets confusing.

I'm totally confused at this point. Are you asking if LE confirmed they weren't patrolling that area the night she disappeared? The answer to that would be no, as far as I know. moo