ID - 4 University of Idaho Students Murdered - Moscow # 15

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I'd like to bring this video to the attention of the forum as I think DutyRon (and cohost Ed) are verified sources to Websleuths <modsnip>

But, my point is they have some excellent analysis and is something to keep an eye out for because I think they mention possibly having JohnnyLaw on their show in the future and he's certainly got his credentials - they're mentioned in vid.

Good find regarding JohnnyLaw, @Mayboy1998. Hoping I tagged the right person. But, thumbs up.

 
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Excellent post.

I don't think any profiler can make an accurate analysis without having the same level of knowledge that the profilers working on the case have. Even with their advanced training, they're making guesses just like us, except they get paid to do it on TV.

I consider all their opinions with an open mind, but I don't think any of them has offered any real new insight.

MOO
I think it has the all the hallmarks of #1
 
Clarification needed - I believe I read that X and E were at the frat house from 8-9. Where were they after that? Did they at any point that night catch up with K and M? I thought I read that they returned home right around the same time as K and M so where were they between 9-2?

Speculation and MOO, could they have stopped for a bite to eat somewhere or at someone's house for a couple hours on the way from party to home? Did a family member live near by?

I don't want to go down a rabbit hole and seem like casting suspicion on a 3rd party, but they could've stopped somewhere along the way home that LE doesn't think relevant. JMO
 
Thank you. And my guess is the light wee hour traffic would be even lighter on a Sunday morning.
I’ve passed rigs carrying those wind blades on the interstate. They are massive and a sight to see. It took a moment before I realized what it was.
I haven't seen a reply yet to your question about a search outside the crime scene.
Kaylee’s sister organized a volunteer search of the Arboretum area last Sunday. From photos it looked like they were carefully combing the grounds.
 
I just can't get over how many potentially risky situations this killer walked into to accomplish their goal. Let's assume killer was just walking in never having been into the house before.

1. Going into a house with 5-6 people minimum who may or may not fight back, not be asleep etc.
2. Going into multiple rooms where he didn't know the layout of beds, preseence of weapons etc.
3. Going into a house with MANY ways to exit.
4. Entering a house with at least 1 male who was fairly large in size.
5. Going into rooms not knowing what could be heard from rooms under, above or next to someone else.
6. Choosing a house with so much visibility to the houses around due to it's positioning.
7. Entering a home with a dog. As a lifelong Lab owner, my dogs might lay on someone coming in, freak out and bark, want to "play" and jump all over them thinking it was a game. They are such wildcards.
8. Entering a home potentially with so much technology, their's maybe included. Anyone could dial 911 if they heard something, their phone if they brought it could try to access the wifi, etc.

And so much more. It just really boggles the mind that this killer took so many risks, and thus far has managed to remain under the radar, at least publicly.

I am so with you on this! That’s why i think this was someone known to them - very well known to them. Someone in their circle, someone who was very familiar with the house, whether or not these were soft sleepers, knew the dog (i think the dog was sleeping on the first floor in one of the uninjured roomate’s rooms). If this was a stranger then this person didn’t care whether he was caught or not, very experienced or an idiot. Or maybe all 3. This was such a risky killing for all the reasons you stated. It is quite baffling!!
 
Why has there not been a reward for information offered?
it’s MOO - I think there isn’t a need for a reward at this time. Based off of LE’s interviews I get the feeling they have an idea of the person that committed this crime. It’s just my opinion they’ve already interviewed this person but the person’s alibis may be their phone’s GPS has them “at home” during this time. LE is probably working hard to disprove this alibis as any person can leave their phone behind and be in a different place. I think this may be K’s father made the request for information or photos to show what may NOT be in the photo - like someone’s car.
 
Why do you think it's a student, and why do you think the killer had a hunting license?

IMO, the suspect is a male student who attends The University of Idaho and knew the victims and the layout of their home because they'd been there before. The victim's home was known to be a party house.

LE believes the suspect used a KA-BAR brand combat blade knife. Many KA-BAR brand knives are used for hunting.

I believe the suspect was skilled with this knife due to the magnitude of this crime, which leads me to think they are a hunter.

The male student population at The University of Idaho is 5,670. I've been unsuccessful in obtaining how many male students have hunting licenses in Moscow, but I'm assuming this is a very narrow pool.
 
Thought it would be interesting to see how many different "profiles" the paid professionals are coming up with. Keep in mind they DO NOT have the data LE has. They are working with the same info we have but have their knowledge and experience.

1. Incel theory - Carole Lieberman (Forensic Psychiatrist)
Forensic psychiatrist Carole Lieberman said she is confident the slayings were not a random attack or the work of a serial killer. The "multiple stabbings and bloody mess are signs that it was personal and that the killer was enraged," Lieberman told Newsweek.
  • Personal
  • Enraged
  • Not random or serial
  • Felt rejected or would be suitor
2. Young & knew at least one victim - Jim Clemente (Former FBI profiler)
The murderer who ruthlessly slaughtered four University of Idaho students is likely a “younger” man and a first-time killer, famed former FBI profiler Jim Clemente said.

Clemente, a criminal behavioral expert and former New York State prosecutor, believes the person who killed Kaylee Goncalves, 21, Ethan Chapin, 20, Xana Kernodle, 20, and Madison Mogen, 21 on Nov. 13 likely knew at least one of the victims.
  • Young
  • Comfortable with blood
  • First-time killer
  • Lives in the area
  • Doesn't mind "wet work" and profession will say the same
And here: Idaho college killer likely a stalker or knew students, ex-FBI profiler says he says this:
  • Stalker
  • Not Sophisticated criminally or forensically
3. Potential Serial Killer -Dr. Casey Jordan (criminologist, behavior analyst, attorney)
You could have somebody who is a potential serial killer who has been thinking about doing this for a very long time,” he tells Inside Edition. “If the fantasy was fulfilled, then the fantasy will bloom even larger and very often, we will find a perp who feels compelled to do it again.”

But Jordan says another, and perhaps stronger, possibility is that the victims were acquaintances with their killer.
  • Potential Serial Killer
  • Acquaintances w/ killer
  • From the community
  • In the house before
4. Instrumental Violence-Mary Ellen O'Toole (Retired agent and profiler FBI)
Paraphrasing interview: Targeted has meaning. Equal targets or not?
  • Not evidence conscious
  • Likely cut themselves and left DNA evidence
  • Likely been in the home prior
  • Prior experience being in other people's homes
  • Had to be a sturdy knife
  • Up close and personal
  • Sloppy crime scene but efficient with knife means experienced
  • Doubtful the knife was tossed
  • The knife has been used before but not necessarily in a murder
  • Instrumental not reactive violence
  • cold-blooded, predatory, callous violence perpetrated frequently on strangers
  • Psychopathic individuals lacking empathy and guilt commit high-risk crimes b/c they enjoy the crime
  • Believes there is a threat to the community
  • High risk for reoffending
5. Young male -Jonathan Gilliam (Former FBI Special Agent)
  • Young male
  • One, not two killers
  • Could get in and out w/ out being seen
  • Entered the second floor
  • Not the first time this person did this
  • Adrenaline filled incident
  • Odd or manacing behavior toward people close to him
  • Typically a killing like this is not the first kill unless in the family environment (which this is not)
  • Sees this as an escalation
  • 3-hour travel distance this person probably lives
6. Copycat killer - Bill Warner - (Private Detective)
Bill Warner, a private detective from Sarasota, Florida, called the murderer a "copy cat serial killer" after tracing down the same killing spree pattern as the infamous Ted Bundy murders.

"Current trail of unsolved murders in Washington, Oregon, and Moscow Idaho mimics trail of murders committed by serial killer Ted Bundy in 1970's," he said.

Bundy "appears to have started his murder spree in Feb 1974 in Washington, then May 1974 in Oregon and then May 1975 in Idaho and then many, many more, he was just getting started," Warner explained.

He added: "No coincidence when the same exact geographic path used by serial killer Ted Bundy in 1970's mimicked by current copy cat serial killer murders in Washington, Oregon and the case in Moscow Idaho, three for three."
Early 30's
  • Above Avg. height
  • Fighting Skills
  • Powerful build
  • Martial arts training
7. Targeted & In their orbit-Bill Daly (Former FBI Investigator)
A former FBI investigator said he believes that the Idaho quadruple murders were a targeted attack and that someone in the slain college students' 'orbit' caused it to happen.

  • Two unharmed people
  • Would have to know the home
  • Not mass murderer rampage b/c others downstairs unharmed
  • Think LE have more than we are aware
  • DNA & Fingerprints are only good if they have something to compare to right now, but great later
8. In their Circle - Nancy Grace
  • Someone in their circle
  • No connection w/ person that called it in
9. Someone knew the house-Brad Garrett (Former FBI)
"It tells me that someone came into the house with a comfort level -- that they probably knew their way around the house," Garrett said.

Garrett said investigators should be broadening their search outside the victims' immediate circle of friends and family.

"You're going to have to start spreading out to people they had just a casual relationship with," he said.
  • Someone knew the house
10. Likely Female -Rodney Demery - (Former homicide detective-podcaster "murder chose me")
ormer homicide detective Rodney Demery believes it's "very likely" a woman is behind the murder of four college students in Idaho. "I think it was someone that had a rage, a certain passion, to create such violence," Demery says.
  • 7% female mass murderers
  • Passion
  • Rage
  • Same-sex relationship
11. Not Serial Killer - Mark Furhman -(Former LAPD Detective & lives in Idaho)
  • Not a serial killer
  • Targeted crime
  • Killer sought out and knows one or more of the victims
  • Knife is a weapon of rage
  • Should be able to find the order of killings, height, footprint, right or left-handed from blood spatter analysis
  • Should be able to get blood type even if DNA is not in the system

Maybe it is a mix of all traits, who knows?

<modsnip: off topic>
 
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I am not sure anyone was targeted. Whoever resisted most might have invited more anger, but it doesn’t mean, targeted. I don’t see the reason to kill four people if you are after one. Maybe the guy was so cold-hearted that he needed one, killed the other one in the room, and the other two, to complicate matters for the police?

But if someone was, it really makes sense to think of people permanently living in the house. To kill a man in his GF’s room is very mafia-like style, sorry. And really, it takes a lot of stalking.

To kill a person who randomly stopped at the house, like K, “now or never” style, takes a lot of preparation.

The other two girls are more traceable because they live there.

I can imagine someone hiding in the house in advance, but not dressed for murder. I think he walked in. JMO. Good luck to Idaho police and FBI.
There may have been one main target but perhaps others were killed because if left alive their first thought/suspect would be the person who did this. I think Ethan was collateral damage not to sound insensitive.
 
Hi, first time posting here, long time lurker.

I just found this article that contains a rather interesting insight by K's mother, regarding K & M's final calls to J.
Here is the quote from the article :
“This person was asleep unfortunately, (and) was not getting the calls,” Goncalves’ mother, Kristi Goncalves, recently told TODAY. “If Kaylee was in imminent danger — her or Maddie — they would have called 911. They would not have been calling this person.”

Sorry; my quote didn't show up the way they usually do. In a week, K's mother has gone from "they'll be getting back together and probably get married and have children" to calling him "this person." That says a lot! Great find Cota332!
 
Looking at the house on google maps, there seem to be other houses and apartments all around. To me, it doesn't look like a house a random attacker would pick.

It also seems like we have very contradictory information. The scene has been described as a bloodbath, but when the survivors noted their friend "unconscious", there is no mention of a bloody scene. If the 911 operator spoke to multiple people, someone should have mentioned the blood. I suspect the 911 call contained much more information and is being manipulated for investigative purposes.

Eventually it may all make sense, but I find it hard to piece together the small nuggets of information into a coherent theory.
 
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