Found Deceased ID - Joshua Vallow, 7, & Tylee Ryan, 17, Rexburg, Sept 2019 *mom arrested* #44

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DI_Isokawa said:
Well, I'm not prepared to offer a specific theory with names, but I'll make some observations about what one might look like.

First, anyone who has experience with clandestine operations, like running an agent in the field or an informant in the middle of a criminal conspiracy, will be able to tell any number of stories just like those you mentioned. The agent runner may be skilled in the dark arts, but the agents are very often doofuses. As a general rule, strong, competent, self-assured individuals don't get easily manipulated into betraying their country or their friends. So the fact that those "on the point" are clumsy is not evidence that they are free from manipulation.

Second, what was the higher purpose? My guess is a it was a million bucks to spend on some organizational purpose.

So (still guessing) imagine that a clandestine or semi-clandestine organization somehow ran across a pack of easily manipulated doofuses and whackos (Chad, Lori and Alex, plus hangers-on) who had close access to an attractive target (poor, tragic Charles). And (still guessing) this organization planned a nice clean assassination attempt in January, it misfired, and (as can happen when running a pack of doofuses) the op began to run out of control. But the objective remained, at least through October. Assuming (still guessing) that the organization is seriously scary, the pack was frightened into trying again and succeeded in a sloppy and unprofitable assassination in July. Still scared, the pack tries again with Brandon in October, and fails again. By late October they've murdered the children in an attempt at self-preservation and Tammy to raise money, but all that generated way too much risk of discovery (final guess) for the organization and they pulled out, leaving us where we are, which is with what looks like an isolated group with too many loose ends.
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Do you think that their legal defence teams could be funded externally?
 
The First Article said:
Does this photo seem to you to be taken by someone taller than Alex? Tylee is 5'3". Lori is 5'6". I'm estimating because I cannot find a source for it, that Alex is around 5'9" or 10". This photo seems to be taken at a height.

Now, it may be possible the Lori is on a stair. This is I'm pretty sure the Old Faithful area.

EbIm0AgU8AErJUN
Click to expand...

A quick and dirty trick to determine camera height: Look at the horizon and objects intersecting the horizon will be at the same height as the lens. You can see that Alex's eyes intersect the horizon so it suggests the camera lens is at his eye level.

I would love for someone to find a picture of Old Faithful showing a background ridge matching this one so we could determine the photo location.
 
Regarding the satellite imagery shown on the KSL broadcast, I've spoken to the reporter and he advises that there is a second image taken on that date by the Pléiades satellite. Unfortunately, it has cloud cover obscuring the property. I discussed obtaining the October imagery to look at JJ's site and he says it appears the only suitable image is late October and the station, at this time, has decided it doesn't merit the cost of acquiring the image given the time elapsed from the burial date. He said that may change as things heat up.
 
vislaw said:
A quick and dirty trick to determine camera height: Look at the horizon and objects intersecting the horizon will be at the same height as the lens. You can see that Alex's eyes intersect the horizon so it suggests the camera lens is at his eye level.

I would love for someone to find a picture of Old Faithful showing a background ridge matching this one so we could determine the photo location.
Click to expand...
Great tip! Thanks.
It appears that AC may be leaning back against the railing a bit and that might account for 2"-3" shorter than his actual height. JMO
 
Twitter thread from Dave Cawley (investigative journalist, host of the podcast Cold) re: aerial photo from 9/09/19
(Includes transitional frame from aerial photo to excavation, indicating location):
https://twitter.com/ashergrey/status/1275853358235029504

A few more thoughts about the satellite image from Chad Daybell's property on Sept. 9, 2019. I've had a couple people ask why it matters or shrug it off as insignificant. Here's why these dark pixels (highlighted) are significant.

Prior to this, the best indications we had about when Tylee died came from the PC statement supporting Chad's arrest. They cited two pieces of evidence: Alex Cox's cell phone locations and Chad's text to Tammy about burying a raccoon.

These helped Rexburg PD know where to dig, but both have problems from an evidence standpoint. For one, Cox's cell phone pings include some outliers. And police did find animal bones in Chad's "pet cemetery."

The satellite image though provides photographic evidence that the area of disturbed ground from Sept. 9, 2019 was much larger than would have been necessary to dispose of a raccoon carcass. Or a cat or dog, for that matter. This is new information.

The fact the satellite was able to see the property at all is pretty lucky. The area surrounding the property was surrounded by opaque cloud cover. A matter of seconds difference could have meant nothing visible.

I get that for people accustomed to fictionalized TV/film portrayals of satellite imaging, this might seem underwhelming. But when you actually consider the physics involved, it's incredible. Sat imagery this good has only been publicly available for the last ~10 years.

We were able to take the geo-referenced image file into Google Earth and use the 3D viewer to approximate the perspective of @KSL5TV's Chopper 5 on the day Tylee's remains were recovered, confirming our findings.
JuxtaposeJS Embed
 
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vislaw said:
A quick and dirty trick to determine camera height: Look at the horizon and objects intersecting the horizon will be at the same height as the lens. You can see that Alex's eyes intersect the horizon so it suggests the camera lens is at his eye level.

I would love for someone to find a picture of Old Faithful showing a background ridge matching this one so we could determine the photo location.
Click to expand...


I think the consensus was that they are at the east chinaman spring based on comparisons when the first photo was released. Am I remembering this correctly? MOO
 
vislaw said:
A quick and dirty trick to determine camera height: Look at the horizon and objects intersecting the horizon will be at the same height as the lens. You can see that Alex's eyes intersect the horizon so it suggests the camera lens is at his eye level.

I would love for someone to find a picture of Old Faithful showing a background ridge matching this one so we could determine the photo location.
Click to expand...

montegrl said:
I think the consensus was that they are at the east chinaman spring based on comparisons when the first photo was released. Am I remembering this correctly? MOO
Click to expand...

Found Deceased - ID - Joshua Vallow, 7, & Tylee Ryan, 17, Rexburg, Sept 2019 *mom arrested* #25

Yes, East Chinaman Spring, at approximately 11:00-11:30 a.m. @vislaw , you might look at the webcam footage noted in the post I linked here to confirm my assessment. The shape of the clouds in the footage is indicative of the time. What do you think?
 
vislaw said:
A quick and dirty trick to determine camera height: Look at the horizon and objects intersecting the horizon will be at the same height as the lens. You can see that Alex's eyes intersect the horizon so it suggests the camera lens is at his eye level.

I would love for someone to find a picture of Old Faithful showing a background ridge matching this one so we could determine the photo location.
Click to expand...

About to leave for an appointment but I'm currently taking the Google Earth around the Old Faithful area. Starting closer to the main area - I assume Lori is lazy and didn't really do very much with them or take them far.

If I can rule out Lori standing on stairs, then it may be Chad. People hold phone cameras just below their eye level often.

Thank you Vislaw! I was hoping someone with some camera experience would pipe in!
 
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nhmemorymaker said:
Well SleuthD... we need you to keep doing errands every day! That's a lot of billable hours from that parked car.
Click to expand...
We drove by again today o_O no Mr Means.

I don’t know if he’s in the area but if he’s staying around, my bet is on a hotel. Airbnb’s are all booked so he would have had to book a couple months in advance. Plus I’d hate driving the 4 hr from Boise to here and back several days in a row. That’s an 8 hr round trip and doesn’t make for much time for sleep.

Now I’m certainly curious if he plans to be back today and will swing by when we pick my husband up later from work.

All jmo
 
vislaw said:
A quick and dirty trick to determine camera height: Look at the horizon and objects intersecting the horizon will be at the same height as the lens. You can see that Alex's eyes intersect the horizon so it suggests the camera lens is at his eye level.

I would love for someone to find a picture of Old Faithful showing a background ridge matching this one so we could determine the photo location.
Click to expand...

Does this Gray Hughes video help... Start @ approx 15:20. He goes through his work finding the exact location.

 
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DI_Isokawa said:
Well, I'm not prepared to offer a specific theory with names, but I'll make some observations about what one might look like.

First, anyone who has experience with clandestine operations, like running an agent in the field or an informant in the middle of a criminal conspiracy, will be able to tell any number of stories just like those you mentioned. The agent runner may be skilled in the dark arts, but the agents are very often doofuses. As a general rule, strong, competent, self-assured individuals don't get easily manipulated into betraying their country or their friends. So the fact that those "on the point" are clumsy is not evidence that they are free from manipulation.

Second, what was the higher purpose? My guess is a it was a million bucks to spend on some organizational purpose.

So (still guessing) imagine that a clandestine or semi-clandestine organization somehow ran across a pack of easily manipulated doofuses and whackos (Chad, Lori and Alex, plus hangers-on) who had close access to an attractive target (poor, tragic Charles). And (still guessing) this organization planned a nice clean assassination attempt in January, it misfired, and (as can happen when running a pack of doofuses) the op began to run out of control. But the objective remained, at least through October. Assuming (still guessing) that the organization is seriously scary, the pack was frightened into trying again and succeeded in a sloppy and unprofitable assassination in July. Still scared, the pack tries again with Brandon in October, and fails again. By late October they've murdered the children in an attempt at self-preservation and Tammy to raise money, but all that generated way too much risk of discovery (final guess) for the organization and they pulled out, leaving us where we are, which is with what looks like an isolated group with too many loose ends.
Click to expand...

And this, folks, is how conspiracy theories get started, and movie scripts get written.

The only problem with any of this is that there are a lot easier and less risky ways to put together a million dollars with a smaller number of fools and a significantly smaller risk of exposure. So any clandestine organization smart enough and resourceful enough to pull something like this off would be smart enough to pick better targets.JMO
 
Floppity said:
Twitter thread from Dave Cawley (investigative journalist, host of the podcast Cold) re: aerial photo from 9/09/19
(Includes transitional frame from aerial photo to excavation, indicating location):
https://twitter.com/ashergrey/status/1275853358235029504

A few more thoughts about the satellite image from Chad Daybell's property on Sept. 9, 2019. I've had a couple people ask why it matters or shrug it off as insignificant. Here's why these dark pixels (highlighted) are significant.

Prior to this, the best indications we had about when Tylee died came from the PC statement supporting Chad's arrest. They cited two pieces of evidence: Alex Cox's cell phone locations and Chad's text to Tammy about burying a raccoon.

These helped Rexburg PD know where to dig, but both have problems from an evidence standpoint. For one, Cox's cell phone pings include some outliers. And police did find animal bones in Chad's "pet cemetery."

The satellite image though provides photographic evidence that the area of disturbed ground from Sept. 9, 2019 was much larger than would have been necessary to dispose of a raccoon carcass. Or a cat or dog, for that matter. This is new information.

The fact the satellite was able to see the property at all is pretty lucky. The area surrounding the property was surrounded by opaque cloud cover. A matter of seconds difference could have meant nothing visible.

I get that for people accustomed to fictionalized TV/film portrayals of satellite imaging, this might seem underwhelming. But when you actually consider the physics involved, it's incredible. Sat imagery this good has only been publicly available for the last ~10 years.

We were able to take the geo-referenced image file into Google Earth and use the 3D viewer to approximate the perspective of @KSL5TV's Chopper 5 on the day Tylee's remains were recovered, confirming our findings.
JuxtaposeJS Embed
Click to expand...
Also, where is the raccoon?
 
montegrl said:
I think the consensus was that they are at the east chinaman spring based on comparisons when the first photo was released. Am I remembering this correctly? MOO
Click to expand...

That's my memory also. Here it is on a map: خرائط ‪Google‬‏‏

I'm using the little Google figure to walk around the Upper Basin loop. This looks to me like the spot: خرائط ‪Google‬‏‏

I think AC and the kids were standing back where the people are standing خرائط ‪Google‬‏‏

Unfortunately the Google figure doesn't go back there. I think Alex is near the corner and JJ is standing on the lower rail of the fence. That would mean whoever took the picture is probably standing on the boardwalk where it comes down the hill. Probably about where the railings are in this photo خرائط ‪Google‬‏‏

Note the people on the walkway atop the cliff across the stream, just as in the released photo.

I think. Does it look right to you?
 
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