I've been thinking about that. Wondering why he would actually choose that scenario if he actually saw them. Was it random? Why would he choose to use 3 subjects that could easily be cleared and point suspicion onto himself. I would imagine if this was suicide he had thought about it for some time and thought through every scenario. He knew exactly how the case would be investigated. Why even go there?
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That is what I am trying to resolve. What could his reasoning be to include such a statistical improbability for that area?
This is why I believe the Lt's 'suicide' may have been unintentional.
The only way it makes sense (to me) - is that the Lt would not have been AS worried about implicating others - if he were to
survive his staged assault. It seems plausible that he thought that he could stage an assault, implicate three vaguely described 'attackers' and then rule out possible suspects himself. He might have thought that none of the other investigating officers would check his own hands for GPR or he might have thought that he could explain it away as "the gun fired during the struggle."
Who Knows?
Regardless, he did not do as much as he could have done to make the alleged struggle look more convincing. And that makes it look more like a more intentional suicide rather than an unintentional one. Because, his emotions would be a much larger factor in an intentional death.
In writing this, I realize too that he could have started to stage the assault with an intent to have it be only that. . . and then decided to kill himself at some point when he realized it was not going the way he had planned.
Regardless, the evidence has to agree with and support any final conclusions and that is what I am trying to do by incorporating everything we know (so far) about the case.
For me, the nearing retirement was a factor, the hype in the media about "black lives matter" was a factor, the inner department investigations were a factor, his obsession with his image and reputation was a factor, his family's financial situation was a factor, his loss of the chief position was a factor, etc.
We can only speculate about other factors like his health, corruption, did he have a mistress who was about to out him?, etc. So, I try to leave speculations out of it as much as I can.
The question becomes (for me); "How likely would the Lt have been able to manage the situation and the following investigation - had he succeeded in staging a fake assault?" How likely on unlikely would he have been able to pull that off, make himself look like a survivor/ victim, etc? Had he survived, would he have been in a position to manage and to control any investigations? I don't know.
Since he did not survive, we can only guess about that part.