Found Deceased IN - Abigail (Abby) Williams, 13, & Liberty (Libby) German, 14, The Delphi Murders 13 Feb 2017 #125

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As we continue to ponder and debate the various aspects of this case, I thought this Department of Justice (DOJ) Statistical Brief would be useful. Some highlights:

Of female homicide victims age 12-14, the Perp was:
-57% family member
-35% acquaintance
-8% stranger

Source: Victim-offender relationship in juvenile homicides by age of victim, 2009-2018

Amateur opinion and speculation
 
rosesfromangels said:
As we continue to ponder and debate the various aspects of this case, I thought this Department of Justice (DOJ) Statistical Brief would be useful. Some highlights:

Of female homicide victims age 12-14, the Perp was:
-57% family member
-35% acquaintance
-8% stranger

Source: Victim-offender relationship in juvenile homicides by age of victim, 2009-2018

Amateur opinion and speculation
Click to expand...
Interesting. So BG being a complete stranger - neither family, friend, nor casual acquaintance - is statistically far less likely.
 
rosesfromangels said:
As we continue to ponder and debate the various aspects of this case, I thought this Department of Justice (DOJ) Statistical Brief would be useful. Some highlights:

Of female homicide victims age 12-14, the Perp was:
-57% family member
-35% acquaintance
-8% stranger

Source: Victim-offender relationship in juvenile homicides by age of victim, 2009-2018

Amateur opinion and speculation
Click to expand...
Very interesting! It appears the Delphi case has POI’s in each of those categories with circumstantial reasons why the killer could be from family, acquaintance or a stranger. If it’s a stranger I still think it could be a SK.
 
SMK777 said:
Interesting. So BG being a complete stranger - neither family, friend, nor casual acquaintance - is statistically far less likely.
Click to expand...
According to the DOJ Statistical Brief I linked above....yes.
This leads me to a couple of speculations. Since they apparently didn't refer to the Perp by name (that we know of), he was either:

(a) acquaintance that they didn't know by name
(b) wearing something to camouflage his true identity

Amateur opinion and speculation
 
St. Anthony2017 said:
Very interesting! It appears the Delphi case has POI’s in each of those categories with circumstantial reasons why the killer could be from family, acquaintance or a stranger. If it’s a stranger I still think it could be a SK.
Click to expand...
Agree on the stranger/SK speculation

Amateur opinion and speculation
 
gliving said:
Former prosecutor in unsolved Delphi murders of two teens says they had signature elements | Daily Mail Online

"Former prosecutor in unsolved Delphi murders of two teens says the killer left behind at least three 'signatures' at the 'odd' crime scene which had a 'lot of physical evidence' - as victim’s sister renews her appeal for justice."
Click to expand...

And this:


'There was a lot more physical evidence than that at the crime scene,' Ives said. 'And it's probably not what you would imagine, or what people would think I'm talking about.'

'It was just not your normal "a person was killed here" crime scene, that's probably all I can say about it,' Ives said.

BBM. I'm fascinated by that stsatement. What is he talking about?????

Also about "staging":

"However, Ives raised the possibility that elements of the scene had been staged in an attempt to trick investigators by sending them down a false path."
 
This has been said 17 million times on this thread and 100,000 of those times were probably my own posts, but how in the world can LE defend, three years out, continuing to withhold every bit of information they have. Keep a few things to yourself, but saying nothing is not working. In order to get different kinds of clues than they have been getting...that have gone nowhere...release some information!
There. I will never bring it up again. Can’t promise it. But I won’t. Probably. Perhaps...
 
StarryStarryNight said:
This has been said 17 million times on this thread and 100,000 of those times were probably my own posts, but how in the world can LE defend, three years out, continuing to withhold every bit of information they have. Keep a few things to yourself, but saying nothing is not working. In order to get different kinds of clues than they have been getting...that have gone nowhere...release some information!
There. I will never bring it up again. Can’t promise it. But I won’t. Probably. Perhaps...
Click to expand...
I think they have what they need at this point besides a confession and additional forensic experts/data scientists to sort through all the tips/data. Considering the volume of info they received, it's not surprising its taking this long. As I posted upthread, my amateur speculation is that the Perp is in those existing tips or may have already been interviewed and quickly dismissed in the triage process. It's time to take a second pass on that initial data triaging. They need the best data scientists they can find working on this...it's all about the data, the correlations, and being able to see what isn't obvious.

Amateur opinion and speculation
 
rosesfromangels said:
I think they have what they need at this point besides a confession and additional forensic experts/data scientists to sort through all the tips/data. Considering the volume of info they received, it's not surprising its taking this long. As I posted upthread, my amateur speculation is that the Perp is in those existing tips or may have already been interviewed and quickly dismissed in the triage process. It's time to take a second pass on that initial data triaging. They need the best data scientists they can find working on this...it's all about the data, the correlations, and being able to see what isn't obvious.

Amateur opinion and speculation
Click to expand...

I completely agree that it all needs to be looked at again and it is a ton of stuff to look at. Maybe things wouldn’t take quite so long if the public had some new and different information to consider. Maybe LE would get some different types of tips and different names to check. Maybe one of these new tips would shore up the suspicions LE has about someone they talked to before. I really can’t think of one reason why LE won’t release more information unless they have nothing and don’t want the killer to know that. But that contradicts what Ives said about there being a lot of evidence.
 
StarryStarryNight said:
I completely agree that it all needs to be looked at again and it is a ton of stuff to look at. Maybe things wouldn’t take quite so long if the public had some new and different information to consider. Maybe LE would get some different types of tips and different names to check. Maybe one of these new tips would shore up the suspicions LE has about someone they talked to before. I really can’t think of one reason why LE won’t release more information unless they have nothing and don’t want the killer to know that. But that contradicts what Ives said about there being a lot of evidence.
Click to expand...
Short of a confession, I don't think they need the publics help. This is a data science/forensics exercise at this point.
All just amateur opinion and speculation of course.
 
JnRyan said:
I just read a news report on a case here in VA. The Heidi Childs/David Metzler murders from 2009. Last year at the 10 year mark, LE had a press conference and as a result starting receiving some tips. Yesterday, LE announced they received 50 tips in the months after that PC and they, Montgomery County Sheriff's, FBI and VA State Police, have been working on those tips all year and stated they've made significant progress. 50 tips. Not thousands or even hundreds. What did the investigators get in Abigail and Liberty's case in the first 2 months here. 15K to 17K in tips? Granted, they had between 100 and 200 personnel on that task force at that time with participation from over 20 agencies. When LE had the 'new direction' press conference last year they received 2,700 new tips.
Police Receive More Than 2,700 New Tips In Delphi Murders Of 2 Girls After Releasing New Suspect Sketch

2.7K in tips with a task force that is much smaller now. That, in addition to about 50K tips prior to that point. I don't care what database software package you are using that is a huge ask of LE to run down tips. Many times when investigators stall on a case they go back over what they have. Having that many tips with a smaller LE group now is a daunting task to go back to the beginning.

I've wondered for some time now if LE doesn't already have a tip on the suspect in those tips. If that does turn out to be the case, maybe, as you indicate, the problem is that there wasn't sufficient detail for LE to run it down.
Click to expand...

bbm.

That is insane. It really is not just that a gumshoe detective can’t put the pieces together. There are just too many pieces and some don’t even belong to this puzzle.

The comments by Ives make this case even more interesting. My brain reads it as SK now. It’s just too bizarre to be a one time gig. Just my humble, nonexpert opinion.
 
I want to add. One thing that would interest me is, geographically speaking, where are people calling in tips from. In previous posts (maybe older threads) we discussed that billboards/posters were seen outside Indiana, including on roads leading to military bases. So, hypothetically, if you had 50,000 tips and think he’s local, I would assume a large portion of those tips were from Delphi and surrounding areas. If they weren’t, were they from a specific area? Did a lot of people call in from Florida? California? Virginia? Just my curiousity. I don’t know what kind of metadata they have.

I mean - 50,000 people don’t know BG. So it’s almost like, how do you identify the tips that are definitely not relevant right away before you investigate them?
 
SeattleStew said:
And this:


'There was a lot more physical evidence than that at the crime scene,' Ives said. 'And it's probably not what you would imagine, or what people would think I'm talking about.'

'It was just not your normal "a person was killed here" crime scene, that's probably all I can say about it,' Ives said.

BBM. I'm fascinated by that stsatement. What is he talking about?????

Also about "staging":

"However, Ives raised the possibility that elements of the scene had been staged in an attempt to trick investigators by sending them down a false path."
Click to expand...

And just to add to all this,

Ives said: 'Even though at the crime scene there was a lot of physical evidence of one sort of another which would lead logically to one person or another, it never led to one particular person.'

So for me, speculating, this could be what sent investigators down the wrong path. It seems there may have been things planted at the crime scene that would definitively lead to a specific person, or persons, but did not.

Meaning, when investigated, those items left at the scene, (could they have been personal items, or items that would have been used by someone, or some other type of evidence?) led directly to specific persons, but those persons had solid alibis.

So, the killer knew, and attempted through planted evidence to implicate some local people? Or knew some other potential people, that could be set up for the murders by planting evidence?

In addition, it would appear to me that the killer had PLENTY of time to set things up, arrange things. So, did he do all that PRIOR to the day of the killings?

And Ives also states he remains fairly certain it is someone local, though he doesn't rule out anything.....could be a one time killer, could be a serial killer, kind of sounds like me, it could be, or may not be, we don't know.
 
stattlich1 said:
In addition, it would appear to me that the killer had PLENTY of time to set things up, arrange things. So, did he do all that PRIOR to the day of the killings?
Click to expand...
Respectfully snipped for focus and commentary response.
Yes. He didn't just take them to a random spot; it was chosen ahead of time. I speculate there is indeed a good possibility he had it staged.

Amateur opinion and speculation
 
rosesfromangels said:
Respectfully snipped for focus and commentary response.
Yes. He didn't just take them to a random spot; it was chosen ahead of time. I speculate there is indeed a good possibility he had it staged.

Amateur opinion and speculation
Click to expand...
This seems likely when you think of the small window of time he had to flee undetected after the crime.
 
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