IN - Lauren Spierer, 20, Bloomington, 03 June 2011 - #14

[VeryVeritas]

Who went to college here? Who went to college and got really "wasted" and went to someone's apartment? Did you stay the night? Did you want to walk home? Would anyone have let you walk home? Remember, it's 3 something in the morning...none of that makes sense to me. I've did some stupid things back in the day...but this still doesn't make sense to me.

EXACTLY - so someone trying to throw you off track says the sky is green and someone else is really happy they said its green. But the sky is still blue and we know it.

 

[VeryVeritas]

This case is strange. I think we can all agree on this. Lauren vanished without a trace.

As for getting really "wasted"... there are no rules really. I have friends who want to stay the night, others want to go home and even if you don't let them walk home, they WILL walk home... It's hard to say.

One of my friends died in a car crash 2 years ago and his good friend snatched his key from him... he punched his friend, got the key back...and died.

So is this why CR got Punched? Why do we still not know why CR was punched?

No rules or people who don't like rules does seem to be the problem here...

 

[VeryVeritas]

This is where I was headed with my earlier question about family life among the POI's. Who exactly would initiate this deal for the location of the body. And can the Spierer's decide for the POI what the charges will be? Mrs. Spierer when she begs for information says she just wants answers, but ...... stops short of saying that there will be immunity. If I had hidden an OD body, I would not interpret anything she has said to mean that the coast was clear to come forward in the legal sense.

You think it is the Spierers who have the power to offer immunity in the event LS died from (willing or unwilling) mixing or use of drugs? It seems to me that power would lie with the prosecutor. It also seems to be catch-22
the coroner would have to rule it as an accidental death first, right? But to get the body one has to barter for immunity. Yet if it is ruled a homicide then would the immunity stick? It's kind of like you have to know if it's an accident before you even have the body.

 

[VeryVeritas]

So can we do a quick voting??

If you could pick one out of these, what would you pick as the most likely scenario?

1) OD + friend(s) hid body

2) Boyfriend killed her

3) One of the guys killed her

4) A stranger killed her

5) She had a freak accident

6) She is alive and held captive somehwere...

I choose 4.

What facts support your choice?

What about just dying from a combination of meds prescribed to her and mixed with alcohol. Or not an OD situation but simply an interaction or something affecting her QT condition and causing her heart to stop. I wouldn't call any of these things "freak" accidents - 150,000 people each year die from their prescribed medications being properly used. (Do you know how many people die from stranger abductions???) So it wouldn't necessarily even be an OD. Drugs, including alcohol kill people at normal doses, not just overdoses. Also the order in which you put these items is bizarre, they are certainly not in the order of the mostly as supported by the facts. Stranger abduction and murder is one of the least likely yet you have it as number 4 and chose it without any basis.

 

[VeryVeritas]

Not true for a couple of reasons. We've been told at least one of the disclosed POIs wasn't partying that night (JW).

We also don't know who the other, unnamed POIs are, or their relative level of sobriety.

And if it's foul play instead of an OD, that changes the structure of the situation quite a bit.

Where do these fallacies come from?

1) JW was not tested for drugs or alcohol that I am aware of.
So his level of sobriety is unverifiable.
2) It is not clear what substances were used at JR's party palace.
IF the drugs were stimulants, one can actually function better and faster than normal. So just because someone has drugs in their system does not mean they are a buffoon acting like the 3 stooges... they could be instead thinking quickly, acting quickly and at the top of their game.

But you are right about the mystery POI's and particularly the ones present at CR/MB's and at JR's place or any other place LS may have been in between...

 

[VeryVeritas]

There is no confirmation of 3:15am arrival time. There's really no confirmation that she every got there.

Right, it's MB's statement and JR's statement that apparently place her at CR/MB's after the 2:51 alley cam exit. The other People there have said what? The people at CR/MB's and at JR's (are they the same people?)

I don't believe JR's statements, too little information and what information that was given is too fishy.
MB seems only slightly more credible due to his cooperation. However, it seems to me that he changed his story. He first was saying that LS didn't want to stay and left. Thinking about how he said this and it was the first thing to come out of his mouth. It made me feel like he was trying to coax her to stay, and she was resisting. Then later his story involves JR and partying. I do find these things to be inconsistent. Since I also doubt CR's amnesia (unless he admits to using a combination of drugs that would have induced it) this all continues to make the lot of these people seem really suspicious. Yet I agree, the more people involved the harder to maintain a conspiracy.

I am curious about something. Doesn't JR, JR's friend from Michigan, CR or MB have a girlfriend? Or are they all gay? I find it just a little odd and when considering various motives it would be useful to know if they are all heterosexual or not and were in a relationship. And I wondered if any of them had sexually assaulted a women, or tried to take advantage of a drunk woman before? Such things are quite often not reported, and it would require a woman involved with one of these people now coming forward and saying... wow this IS creepy... this person did put me in a position where I felt uncomfortable but I got away or I was threatened not to talk about it... or something along those lines.

 

[VeryVeritas]

While I agree that we don't know where the 3:15 am timeline comes from, why would JR say she got there if she never did? He is implicating himself as a last known person to have seen her, so I really don't see any reason for him to claim she was there if she wasn't.

@JJenny

You are an astute observer in this. We did previously discuss this subject - see my earlier post about "Crime Scene Shell Game"

Basically, JR could have said she was with him to put focus on him and his place when she may have really gone somewhere else or never made it into an apt. If LE did a dna search they would have found her hair, etc.. at JR's But she was there earlier in the day, so there would be no way to rule out JR's possible cover lie with that sort of evidence.

Why would JR take the heat for someone else? Well that depends on what happened to her. If he were connected to a drug supply chain and that's what caused her demise directly or indirectly, his being the fall guy (at least for an investigative diversion) could have been caused by numerous factors.

 

[VeryVeritas]

She may not have even gotten into a car. She may have ended up on someone elses door step.

First of all stranger abduction (kidnapping) followed by murder is not nearly as common as it may seem. We are talking about maybe 1 kidnapping/murder by stranger of an adult female per year in Indiana - if someone has the precise stats on that, please post. Then what are the odds that this would occur at 4:30 am on that one block stretch of N. College without a sound, a trace or a witness by a totally accidental random stranger? I'm guessing the odds to be in the billions to one. If someone is a forensic statistician I would like to see the math to arrive at an accurate assessment of how likely this stranger abduction and murder would be given the narrow window of opportunity.
The odds of being struck by lightning in any given year in the USA are 1 in 500,000 I would place this odds of this event occurring at least 100 times less likely than that.

Whereas the odds of a woman being sexually assaulted are 1 in 3 during her lifetime. 3 out of 4 know their attacker. So very likely to be sexually attacked by someone close. Yet when it comes to deaths, things like accidental death and especially drug related (including proper use of prescription meds) deaths are by far the most likely.

So to summarize my rough accumulation of odds data:

1) Stranger Abduction and Murder - 1 in 500 Million
2) Struck by lightning 1 in 500,000
3) Intimate lover murder 1 in 200,000
4) Heart Problem 1 in 200,000
5) non-stranger murder 1 in 50,000
6) Accidental 1 in 20,000
7) Death by use of prescription medication 1 in 2,000


These are approximations from mostly US Census and other government sources as in some cases I used the stats from LS's age group, other times race and gender. I could have made an error so if you find a stat that's dramatically different please correct me.

If you look at the known facts through the lens of these stats, what do you see?

 

[VeryVeritas]

Assuming it's the vehicle of one of the POI's? But didn't the police obtain search warrants early on the investigation? I'd assume the cars were the first place they looked...

... nothing....

It seems LE did search SOME vehicles. But as the weeks pass, we find more and more people who were involved and who may have had vehicles in the immediate area which were not searched but did quickly leave town.

We don't even know the names of the POI's, the people who hit CR, the people in CR/MB's apt or the people in JR's apt when LS was supposedly there.
So we certainly can't assume that ALL of their vehicles were searched and tested. If not done by now, it would hardly matter!

 

[VeryVeritas]

Petite, small, very small. Blonde. 99 percent sure it was Lauren. The guy was asking do you want to go home and she was not even able to get out any words.

Let's for a moment take the devil's advocate position and say, it wasn't LS... it was the 1% change she was wrong. So then these people both the man and the woman should come forward right? And say... oh... that wasn't Lauren and darkman it was us...

And so if 3:38 witness is truthful and no one else comes forward it points to the 99%. But it would help if someone can back up

 

[webrocket]

So to summarize my rough accumulation of odds data:

1) Stranger Abduction and Murder - 1 in 500 Million


These are approximations from mostly US Census and other government sources as in some cases I used the stats from LS's age group, other times race and gender. I could have made an error so if you find a stat that's dramatically different please correct me.

If you look at the known facts through the lens of these stats, what do you see?

bolded by me.

where on earth did you get that figure?

there are about 300 million Americans so if the odds are really 1 in 500 million then (although I am not a statistician) you could expect to find one abduction/murder every year and a half in this country. I do not know the precise number per year but it is certainly more than 2 every three years.

 

[VeryVeritas]

No, but if I wanted to mention him I would just call him the resident of College&10th that fits the description of the mystery person

Are we talking about the guy with the girl slung over his shoulder or someone else who may have witnessed them besides 3:38 witness?

 

[elmomom]

Are we talking about the guy with the girl slung over his shoulder or someone else who may have witnessed them besides 3:38 witness?

This post of mine that you quoted was in response to someone that wanted to talk about a particular person, and since he has not been called out in MSM we cannot identify him here, even by initials. The person in question fits the description and lives in the vicinity of the "mystery man" that the witness described at 3:38. This mystery man is the one who slung LS over his shoulder in that testimony, yes.

 

[jjenny]

Let's for a moment take the devil's advocate position and say, it wasn't LS... it was the 1% change she was wrong. So then these people both the man and the woman should come forward right? And say... oh... that wasn't Lauren and darkman it was us...

And so if 3:38 witness is truthful and no one else comes forward it points to the 99%. But it would help if someone can back up

I really don't understand the discussion of this supposed sighting as if it was a fact. Police pretty much discounted it, and they aren't looking for any "mystery men." So why should anyone be coming forward?

 

[threepisces]

Here are some more thoughts on the 3:38 witness account and how it complicates the timeline:

1) 2:51 - LS heads down the alley, presumably with CR.
2) 3:15 - LS leaves CR and MB's place and goes to JR's place.
3) 3:38 - Witness sees LS and mystery man @ 10th and college.
4) 4:15 - Someone, supposedly LS, calls DR.
5) 4:30 - LS leaves JR's place and turns the corner.


We know #1 happens because it is caught on tape. It also seems likely that she does in fact go in 5 north because if she disappears at this point, all of the boys are in on the crime. This seems unlikely relative to the reasonable idea of her going in 5 North.

We obviously don't know about #2, but again, why would JR and potentially JR's guest incriminate themselves if she doesn't in fact come over. Again, the only other option is that everybody is in on it. It also makes sense that she is only in the CR/MB apartment for 20 minutes: CR is passing out, LS is probably recounting the fight story to MB.

If we believe #3 happens, then JR is either wrong about when LS arrives at his apartment (not that we have an official time for this, but it would be the difference of being there for an hour+ and being there for 40 minutes or so), JR is omitting the fact that LS decides to leave at 3:38, he and/or the out of town guest go out to bring her back, or she leaves gets harassed and then returns to JR's place. Either way, the problem for police is that JR admits that he is with her until 4:30, so it perhaps isn't worth focusing on this mystery man. We might think it possible that JR is wrong about when LS ultimately leaves (ie maybe she leaves at 3:30, not 4:30 and runs into the mystery man at 3:38 around the corner). But the DR phone call is the problem: we have a timestamp for the call and if JR states that this call happened before she leaves, then JR is again the last person to see/interact with LS.

In other words, if the 3:38 event is real and accurate, JR is:
1) either the mystery man (or the visitor is) and therefore both lying about the events of the night and still the last person to be with LS. It is certainly worth trying to catch JR in the lie if this is the case, but it doesn't make sense why he would lie about it. I doubt the witness was hiding out of site - if it is JR or the visitor, wouldn't they know that this was seen and that they would need to explain themselves?

2) unaware that LS stumbled to 10th and college before turning back and going back to 5 North and to JR's place. In this case, the mystery man would definitely be a POI as he could have hung around outside the apartment waiting for LS. Not sure why he would wait for an hour not knowing that she would leave again though. Seems unlikely (unless the mystery man is JW, who is outside of JR's place fuming), but who knows. If this is the case, LE needs to get more detail from MB and JR about the timeline and they need to release the sketch of the mystery man.

 

[jjenny]

Police haven't put the 3:38 am into the timeline.
Even if the sketch of the "mystery man" was done, police haven't been asking public for help to find "mystery man." I think it is clear police aren't treating this as credible. Why it is discussed here as if it was credible, is beyond my understanding.

 

[British]

Here are some more thoughts on the 3:38 witness account and how it complicates the timeline:

1) 2:51 - LS heads down the alley, presumably with CR.
2) 3:15 - LS leaves CR and MB's place and goes to JR's place.
3) 3:38 - Witness sees LS and mystery man @ 10th and college.
4) 4:15 - Someone, supposedly LS, calls DR.
5) 4:30 - LS leaves JR's place and turns the corner.


We know #1 happens because it is caught on tape. It also seems likely that she does in fact go in 5 north because if she disappears at this point, all of the boys are in on the crime. This seems unlikely relative to the reasonable idea of her going in 5 North.

We obviously don't know about #2, but again, why would JR and potentially JR's guest incriminate themselves if she doesn't in fact come over. Again, the only other option is that everybody is in on it. It also makes sense that she is only in the CR/MB apartment for 20 minutes: CR is passing out, LS is probably recounting the fight story to MB.

If we believe #3 happens, then JR is either wrong about when LS arrives at his apartment (not that we have an official time for this, but it would be the difference of being there for an hour+ and being there for 40 minutes or so), JR is omitting the fact that LS decides to leave at 3:38, he and/or the out of town guest go out to bring her back, or she leaves gets harassed and then returns to JR's place. Either way, the problem for police is that JR admits that he is with her until 4:30, so it perhaps isn't worth focusing on this mystery man. We might think it possible that JR is wrong about when LS ultimately leaves (ie maybe she leaves at 3:30, not 4:30 and runs into the mystery man at 3:38 around the corner). But the DR phone call is the problem: we have a timestamp for the call and if JR states that this call happened before she leaves, then JR is again the last person to see/interact with LS.

In other words, if the 3:38 event is real and accurate, JR is:
1) either the mystery man (or the visitor is) and therefore both lying about the events of the night and still the last person to be with LS. It is certainly worth trying to catch JR in the lie if this is the case, but it doesn't make sense why he would lie about it. I doubt the witness was hiding out of site - if it is JR or the visitor, wouldn't they know that this was seen and that they would need to explain themselves?

2) unaware that LS stumbled to 10th and college before turning back and going back to 5 North and to JR's place. In this case, the mystery man would definitely be a POI as he could have hung around outside the apartment waiting for LS. Not sure why he would wait for an hour not knowing that she would leave again though. Seems unlikely (unless the mystery man is JW, who is outside of JR's place fuming), but who knows. If this is the case, LE needs to get more detail from MB and JR about the timeline and they need to release the sketch of the mystery man.

I dont believe the mystery man story. The police has no reason not to acknowledge it if true. I think the witness is reliable and was trying to be helpful, but I suspect that she mixed up the times and it was earlier that night.

I agree that a scenario in which several POIs are involved is very possible. We have a POI claiming that she left alone at 4.30 AM. And we have to assume that she left, while she was intoxicated, probably on cocaine and xanax, barefoot and without keys to go home. It makes no sense. Who would let a person in that condition to go home without keys. At 4.30 AM. Then we have another POI claiming "memory loss". Although it is possible that one or both of them are telling the truth, in both cases the stories are hard to believe.

 

[holly2325]

You think it is the Spierers who have the power to offer immunity in the event LS died from (willing or unwilling) mixing or use of drugs? It seems to me that power would lie with the prosecutor. It also seems to be catch-22
the coroner would have to rule it as an accidental death first, right? But to get the body one has to barter for immunity. Yet if it is ruled a homicide then would the immunity stick? It's kind of like you have to know if it's an accident before you even have the body.

My point, exactly. There have been posters who suggest that there could be a scenario where one POI comes forward confessing some kind of accident /panic situation in return for immunity. I can see where this POI/POI family might want to do this. And I can see where the Spierers could be so desperate to get LE back that they might accept this. But I don't think our legal system supports this option.

 

[Blythe]

I've been catching up on the questioning of whether the witness actually saw LS and "mystery man". If the witness is correct, did "mystery man" spot the witness? I am going to assume LS would not have. What would that add to speculation?

 

[PineMushroom]

It would seem that #1 Hoosier Lawyer's Client JR is the one with the answers to your(and my) questions... If you wanted to help the investigation why would you leave such a void in this hour or so before she vanishes? It's such a void, and it's continued so long, that it smells like fish!

I have also thought some about this and it has troubled me, however, I could see why LE might want to CR and his lawyer to keep this information (the timeline) under wraps because CR might be a witness.

To me and IMHO, while yes of course CR could be involved in LS's disappearance since BPD has stated that no one has been cleared, he, along with his roommate, MB, it appears (according to the Herald-Times Who's Who article) they were the two last (?) to leave B-town - for example, CR and MB were certainly around along enough to appear on camera walking into or out of BPD offices in daylight whereas other POIs as far as know were not.

CR cooperated with police allowing searches of his car, credit car and phone record. He also provided DNA - what have others provided?

Again, CR's memory problems are troubling for us the public, but it certainly he has appeared cooperative, available for multiple interviews with BPD.

The above in no way exonerates him as the BPD have stated that they have cleared no one and I take LE at face value on that statement, but I think CR has demonstrated a level of cooperation with police (and even making media comments) that I haven't seen from any other POIs.

IMHO of course.