IN - Lauren Spierer, 20, Bloomington, 03 June 2011 - #16

[Jupiter812]

Cringing a bit as I write this, but what would be your guess as to how a homeless man knows the precise time?

What I thought when I first heard this report: The man figured that he couldn't go wrong with the 4:35 timing since it had already been broadcasted far and wide that she was last seen at 4:30.

Sort of but not as bad as the cab driver who claims she was in his cab. Only in the cabbie's case, he said she was in his car on June 4. lol

 

[Darcyline]

I don't believe there is a chance Lauren is in Israel (sorry Walker) but his arguments do lead me to be more careful about the ones I make. Technically, we have very very little actual concrete evidence. Some of our theories literally have as much proof as the one Walker is putting forth. Well, except for being more statistically common.

I don't even know if some of the things I have always believed to be true are true about the case. Like, is her medicine really missing? Is it confirmed that she was escorted out of Kilroy's for being too drunk/wasted? DId police really confirm the 338 sighting?

I still say I would gamble on someone she knows (and maybe not even a current POI) hurting her or hiding her after an accidental death, then stranger abduction, then some sort of accidental death like falling in a construction hole, and then Israel and then aliens in order of most likely to least likely. The first three would not shock me though.

 

[elmomom]

What I thought when I first heard this report: The man figured that he couldn't go wrong with the 4:35 timing since it had already been broadcasted far and wide that she was last seen at 4:30.

Sort of but not as bad as the cab driver who claims she was in his cab. Only in the cabbie's case, he said she was in his car on June 4. lol

lol ok, yea. But it beats Israel, yes?

 

[MHamby]

For her to be in Israel, many things would have had to of taken place for her to do so. Most of which would provide records that are public.

Walker, to this you answered that someone could have smuggled her on. My answer to that is, haven't terrorists been trying to do this for decades? This is precisely what the airlines are trying to prevent from happening. I am sorry, but I do not believe that she is more brilliant a mastermind than any terrorist organization.

So, either she went on a plane publicly, which we would have records of, or she went on covertly, which would be about 99.99% unlikely.

Hopefully that puts all other assumptions aside.

Now, if you were to argue that she wanted to make the trip to the airport and that was where she was abducted. Or, whoever agreed to drive her, decided he/she wanted more, and things got heated and the 'death' occurred far far away from where people are looking... that would be plausible. Perhaps.

 

[Walker]

Do you have any info on LS traveling to other countries? Didn't she also visit Egypt on that trip.

Doubt she went to Egypt given the political instability there right now, unless she needed to go there very urgently for some extremely compelling reason.

Do you have a link?

I'm starting to think you may be right. But let's take it a step further. Perhaps she has been taken into Al Qaeda.

Seems to me that you have too much invested in the "her friends dumped her body" theory, and therefore you are protesting too much.

 

[Jupiter812]

Being taken away in a car during the night would certainly be a logical conclusion, but what is the likelihood that a vehicle would not have been picked-up on one of the cameras?

I know it's been stated on here that she could in fact have left the area on foot w/o being captured on camera, but have we conclusively determined whether it would be possible to leave via vehicle w/o being spotted?

Absolutely.

 

[elmomom]

I have never heard that her medicine was missing, nor would I ever believe that unless LE had mentioned it. I think that is something that LE would have said. And in fact, her mother came out with the Long QT thing on the 2nd day and asked that if she was found to bring her to the hospital. If her meds were with her, it would be unlikely she would say that.

 

[Walker]

For her to be in Israel, many things would have had to of taken place for her to do so. Most of which would provide records that are public.

Walker, to this you answered that someone could have smuggled her on.

Maybe you are mixing my posts with someone else, probably on another board. I am suggesting that LS wanted to go Israel. She herself planned to go there, and she deliberately and intentionally chose Israel as a destination.

Of course, she could be many other places, but she had just been in Israel only this April. She could also be in Westchester County NY. for example.

My answer to that is, haven't terrorists been trying to do this for decades?

LS was not violent or undesirable as a tourist/student.

This is precisely what the airlines are trying to prevent from happening. I am sorry, but I do not believe that she is more brilliant a mastermind than any terrorist organization.

Preventing what? At 20, going to Israel without your family's permission is not a crime.

So, either she went on a plane publicly, which we would have records of, or she went on covertly, which would be about 99.99% unlikely.

Suppose she took a commercial flight from O'Hare.

Hopefully that puts all other assumptions aside.

Why does the suggestion trouble you?

Now, if you were to argue that she wanted to make the trip to the airport and that was where she was abducted. Or, whoever agreed to drive her, decided he/she wanted more, and things got heated and the 'death' occurred far far away from where people are looking... that would be plausible. Perhaps.

I do not rule out other possibilities like abduction.

 

[elmomom]

:waitasec: I just caught a mess up in either the reporting of what HT said, or in the time line that HT gave.
link:
http://www.lohud.com/article/201106...isappearance?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|News|p

"After a few texts, the bar texted Jesse back saying your friend left her phone here, tell her to come get it."
That was about 3 p.m., Tamir said.

3 PM
then:

Tamir said that's when Wolff contacted her and one of her girlfriends, "asking us if we heard from her."

"We both said we didn't," she said, "and I was in class so he asked me if he could come get my key from me just to check if she was still sleeping in the apartment because it was around 2 p.m. then, and we all sleep late."

Now it's 2 PM?

 

[Walker]

I have never heard that her medicine was missing, nor would I ever believe that unless LE had mentioned it. I think that is something that LE would have said. And in fact, her mother came out with the Long QT thing on the 2nd day and asked that if she was found to bring her to the hospital. If her meds were with her, it would be unlikely she would say that.

The link which I posted stated that whether LS had her medication with her was "unclear."

 

[MHamby]

LS was not violent or undesirable as a tourist/student.

Preventing what? At 20, going to Israel without your family's permission is not a crime.

Suppose she took a commercial flight from O'Hare.

Then she would not have to have been smuggled on and therefore her records would be public. All of these indicate having public records of her whereabouts and where she went. As there are none, that would rule out a trip via airplane to anywhere.

Now, as someone else has already stated this, and your reply was that perhaps she was 'smuggled' on (if you really want me to, I can go find the quote), please refer to my 'terrorist' comments as to object to that line.

Why does the suggestion trouble you?

The initial suggestion does not trouble me. However, the persistant badgering of the idea, without conceding anyone else's evidence to refute your theory, is troubling. If you have as open of a mind to consider such a theory, please keep that mind open enough to see everything pointing against it and conceding that it is highly highly highly unlikely. And use that 'outside the box' mind to come up with another, more probable, theory.

 

[elmomom]

there was another thread where a couple of individuals posted things that were not only factually baseless but were also thoroughly debunked by LE.

the only person who benefitted from the subject matter of the baseless theory was the prime suspect in the missing person's disappearance.

so one should question the motivation of those who post these baseless theories.

The website calling out JR - I sometimes wonder if it is possibly propaganda driven by the desire to keep the pressure on JR and off someone else.
http://jayrosenbaumneedstotalk.wordpress.com/
(Bessie if I should remove the link let me know)

 

[Walker]

She could have been abducted by aliens.

Consider the Elizabeth Smart case.

 

[Walker]

This is getting ridiculous. Can someone please send me a PM when we get back on the topic of FINDING LAUREN!

Does finding LS mean that we have to believe with absolute certainty that she is dead?

 

[Walker]

You can also apply the "Ignore" setting by clicking on User CP on the blue navigation bar near the top of the page. Then resist the impulse to peek. :crazy:

Please, will the people who get upset with discussion of the possibility that LS is still alive, please just hit that ignore button.

The point of the board is to discuss various different theories.

Seems to me that the "friends dumped her body" theory is far more offensive, but then maybe that's just me.

 

[bx2]

:waitasec: I just caught a mess up in either the reporting of what HT said, or in the time line that HT gave.
link:
http://www.lohud.com/article/201106...isappearance?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|News|p

3 PM
then:
Now it's 2 PM?

Mark me down in the bad editing column. I think he was texting her phone, got no response, contacted HT around 2pm to get her key, and around 3pm the bar responded back saying they had her phone.

 

[elmomom]

OK, I am going back to musing on JW. I know that many people have completely ruled him out. No evidence - that I know. But we do know that his house was re-visited as late as last week with some type of scent dogs. So, it seems to me that LE aren't as quick as us to rule him out.
In an earlier post I quote HT and her timeline that she said JW found out LS' phone was at Kilroys at 3, but that he called her for the key to check on LS at 2PM. Was that a mistake.. or not? Also, this is the interview that clearly says it wasn't him that went to LE to file the report, it was AR and another girlfriend to file the report.
All along my hinky meter goes up because it seems that HT just tries a little too hard to make it seem that he is not involved. (she adds that he didn't go to LE because he was calling her family).
I also find the wording extremely odd about JR. She claims that JR told her that he was the last to see LS. "AND I BELIEVE HIM" she adds. Odd. Just very odd. Hinky meter and all.

 

[elmomom]

Mark me down in the bad editing column. I think he was texting her phone, got no response, contacted HT around 2pm to get her key, and around 3pm the bar responded back saying they had her phone.

no - my editing was worse, I was trying to snip it but re-read it all the way through and see if you still believe that.

Later that morning, panic ensued. "Jesse was texting Lauren the next day to see where she was, but he got no answer because the bar had her phone," Tamir said. "After a few texts, the bar texted Jesse back saying your friend left her phone here, tell her to come get it."

That was about 3 p.m., Tamir said.

Tamir said that's when Wolff contacted her and one of her girlfriends, "asking us if we heard from her."
"We both said we didn't," she said, "and I was in class so he asked me if he could come get my key from me just to check if she was still sleeping in the apartment because it was around 2 p.m. then, and we all sleep late."

 

[bessie]

one thing about WS that has always mystified me is how some people can post things that have no factual basis whatsoever, yet when people point that out, they are criticized by the moderators.

can someone explain that to me?

Requesting a link from another poster to support a statement, offering a counter argument, and pointing out errors or inconsistencies in a post are all legitimate actions and will not bring criticism from a moderator.

Here are a few things that will get you into trouble:

• Sarcasm aimed at another member, including mods;
• Inflammatory language intended to incite a reaction from another member;
• Disparaging remarks about another member's character;
• And, telling other members how to, and what to, post.

It's pretty simple, really. Conduct yourself in the same manner you would in a business meeting or classroom discussion, and you should be fine.

 

[bx2]

no - my editing was worse, I was trying to snip it but re-read it all the way through and see if you still believe that.

Yeah, I was referring to the article, not you The selective quotes have me wondering is all. Its like they got her quote about the texts and the bar contacting him, and then later on said, hey what time did the bar contact him and added that in. I dunno though, I only get that after trying to analyze it word by word.