According to HT, Lauren was to be staying with JW that night. Seeing that she never showed up, I don't think JW would simply go to bed. A phone call to HT would reveal who she was out with - which would make any boyfriend jealous (She was seen at Killroys with CR as well). His girlfriend is out partying with a bunch of guys, seemingly ALL guys, and not where she is supposed to be (with him) and we are supposed to believe he just "went to bed?"
good to see another member of lovely Crook county Here are my thoughts on what you wrote.
1) I can easily see why LS might have lied to HT about her intentions that night. If LS were cheating on JW, she might have just wanted to wait until he left IU to tell him. It is easier that way and he was graduating. HT might have a big mouth and LS might have wanted to keep it quiet.
2) Phone records would be pretty easy for LE to retrieve. LE could easily, and probably has already found out who JW talked to that night.
3)JW's story is the easiest to back up in many ways. He had a roomate in his apartment saying he went to sleep at 2:30. Also, if any camera or if even 1 witness saw JW outside his apartment his entire story falls apart. He would then become the most likely target and it would be easy to catch him in a web of lies. He would have had the farthest to travel to get to LS and, therefore, the most likely to see on a camera.