I hope you can see what I'm getting at here and just how small the chance of her being randomly abducted actually were. I talked to a friend here at the University of Montana (who is mind-numbingly smart) about the probability of this case being a random abduction case. He explained that while it would be variable, he surmised the probability of this being random were under .0001 percent. So were talking in the thousandth's of one percent here. In other words, it's about as believeable given what we know of the evening, that Lauren was struck by lightning and disentigrated as it was that this was random. I myself, still believe that LE has the correct POI's, but lack enough tangible and forensic evidence to proceed with the case. <snipped for space>
Good post, Mo.
Stats have never been my strong point, but I agree that the probability of a random abduction is very small, considering the circumstances surrounding Lauren's night. On the other hand, the probability of someone simply disappearing and never being found, period, also seem infinitesimally small... This board is full of cases like this.
I have only followed one other case here at WS, because the trial was recently all over the news where I live. In it, an 8-year-old girl was snatched off the street, in broad daylight, a block from her school, by a random stranger and his girlfriend, who raped and killed her on a rural country road. They couldn't find her until the girlfriend eventually caved and gave a full confession that led police to her body. Before that, everyone assumed the girl's parents had something to do with it, because there was some weirdness about their behavior, they were drug users, etc. This all happened three years ago, and the trial just ended (both were sentenced to life, thankfully).
Anyway, I do feel that given the circumstances and the unwillingness of the POI to cooperate, the most likely situation is the one you outline above -- that they are responsible and that LE simply lacks the evidence that will (hopefully) eventually come out and bring Lauren home.
On the other hand, I still think there's a smidgen of possibility that she could have left and randomly stepped into danger's way, and that the whole night was a perfect storm of bad events. Sometimes, when there are so few clues, the most obvious ones may not be the right ones... Ahh, I really don't know what to think at this point.
But no matter who was responsible in Lauren's case, I believe that there must be more than one person in this world who know something -- Either because they were involved in some way with her death or coverup, or because they witnessed weird and suspicious behavior of someone close to them around the time she went missing. In the story I mentioned above, even this sociopath of a woman (the murderer's girlfriend), who is heartless enough that she once microwaved a puppy (!!) felt enough guilt to come forward and lead police to her body. I have faith that someone with knowledge related to Lauren's disappearance will eventually come forward in this case too. It's never too late...
- Abbey )