Does anyone know how valid the rumor (a pt rumor I think) is that JW was nearly coming to blows with JR on the morning after LS was reported missing?
Have I omitted possibilities
Abduction on way home..
Random Abduction after leaving JR's 15%
Stalked by partygoer from SW or 5N 10%
Stalked by Kilroy's patron 5%
Stalked by JW 10%
Stalked by construction worker 5%
Died in route to 5N (3-way cover up) 5%
Died at CR AND MB ( 3 way cover up) 5%
Died at JRs 15%
Followed leaving 5N
Guest 15%
MB 10%
JR 2%
CR 1%
Kidnapped 1%
Accident or lost 1%
Regarding the bar manager's time of sighting...I would have to watch the Lohud interview with the PIs again and I don't feel like doing that right now, but if she is wrong it may be explained this way: She could be the same person as the "older" student who was visiting a boy at 10th and College Apts that night. She may appear on security cam. This would be the same camera that might exist inside the bldg--the one that might have recorded Lauren and CR knocking on friends' door and coming down the stairs as described by PI.
I hope LE and camera technicians have verified without a doubt that the alley cameras time was correct!
Have I omitted possibilities
Abduction on way home..
Random Abduction after leaving JR's 15%
Stalked by partygoer from SW or 5N 8%
Stalked by Kilroys patron 5%
Stalked by JW 10%
Stalked by constrution worker 5%
Abduction on way to unknown destination 5% (thanks ros)
Died in route to 5N (3-way cover up) 5%
Died at CR AND MB ( 3 way cover up) 5%
Died at JRs 10%
Died at unknown destination 5N (thanks ros) 2%
Followed leaving 5N
Guest 12%
MB 10%
JR 2%
CR 3 %
Kidnapped 1%
unknown Accident or lost 1%
LE cover-up 1%
I'm at odds with your odds.
My analysis more simply has consolidated to:
Chances that LS left JR's as he says (between 4:15 and 4:30am) and something happened to her thereafter which does not involve a known POI = 1%
Chances that LS never left JR's as he says or when he says and that one or more of the POI's is lying and are involved = 99%
Now contrast this against the known statistics for these kinds of cases.
How many are abducted / attacked / murdered / raped / disposed of etc... by total strangers vs. someone close to them?
You are suggesting that in totality a near 50% chance that was done by a stranger, which is way off from the usual odds. Look a little closer at the people closer to her. You have some stories at are really fishy here for the last 3 people to have known or claimed to have been with her, and yet you give equal weight to relatively rare occurrences without any evidence pointing in those directions whatsoever.
It may not have been the morning after, but within a few days after LS disappeared, there were confrontations between JW and JR. From the lohud anniversary article:
"But out of public view, Wolff was feuding with Rossman and Rosenbaum.
Just days after the disappearance, Wolff and his father barged into Rossman and Beth’s apartment, investigators learned.
Jesse Wolff was confrontational, and Beth said he broke up a potential fight.
'I hope you rot in jail!' Wolff is said to have shouted as he left."
What was said on PT was that JW tried to contact JR but as of June 24, JR's roommate did not know if they had actually spoken to each other.
See post by aaronwg - 2011-06-24 19:51:22 -0400
And months later
"At a football tailgate party in early September after everyone but Spierer was back at school, Rosenbaum said, Wolff had a frat buddy named Mark come over to threaten that Wolff would punch him in the face if he didn’t leave right away. Rosenbaum said he left to avoid conflict."
http://www.lohud.com/article/201206...ered-away-after-night-heavy-drinking-drug-use
What do you make of this?
Not discounting that JW is a suspect, this is how i would expect JW to behave if he blamed JR for what happened.
I really would have liked to have been a fly on the wall in these incidents.
Every eye movement, every breath from MB or JR in these situations being confronted by RS and JW. For JW to be faking and going around with RS behaving like this and to at the same time be himself guilty would make him very psycho. I'm not familiar with any claims that JW has such a personality. Certainly Lauren would have smelled psycho. On the other hand, people have reported JR as being deceitful and soulless.
I really would like to know what RS heard from MB and JR, and would really like to know whom he suspects the most. His gut feel after those confrontations is worth something. But of course speaking publicly about such things may be inadvisable by his lawyers, LE, and may damage any case.
Note of clarification:What do you make of this?
Not discounting that JW is a suspect, this is how i would expect JW to behave if he blamed JR for what happened.
I really would have liked to have been a fly on the wall in these incidents.
Every eye movement, every breath from MB or JR in these situations being confronted by RS and JW. For JW to be faking and going around with RS behaving like this and to at the same time be himself guilty would make him very psycho. I'm not familiar with any claims that JW has such a personality. Certainly Lauren would have smelled psycho. On the other hand, people have reported JR as being deceitful and soulless.
I really would like to know what RS heard from MB and JR, and would really like to know whom he suspects the most. His gut feel after those confrontations is worth something. But of course speaking publicly about such things may be inadvisable by his lawyers, LE, and may damage any case.
Then it sounds like what you are saying is that the 3:38 witness may have been seen on cam at 10th and College at an EARLIER time than 3:38? In that case it would be more consistent that CR was carrying LS, and were for a time actually out on N. College. So if this is more correct, then did she see LS BEFORE CR/LS went down the Alley, or... was it AFTER? Even if her time of 3:38 was not correct, I think it makes a big difference if she was seen at 2:38 vs. 3:08 If it was more like 2:38, then that then leaves us cold back at the exit from the Alley.
Which causes me to want to recheck. Exactly WHO has confirmed that they saw LS after the Alley cam exodus?
MB - yes
JR - yes
Anyone else? I'm not aware of anyone else confirming that they saw LS after the Alley, except the possibility in what the PI's said in June, that she was seen on JR's back ALIVE. I was under the impression that this occurred after the Alley exit and fall. But Jacobite, says that PI's were referring to earlier over at 10th and College. This needs to be cleared up.
Because if MB were simply covering for CR and did not see or question LS's injuries it causes me to think that he never saw her either. And that only leaves JR to claim he saw her, with any validity after the Alley exit.
Also MB may have only seen LS from a distance. For example. Let's say that CR struggles to get LS across the lot, but as he gets over to 5N, he can't get her up the stairs. (My guess is this would be out of view for the people still clearing the area immediately around the Alley, like the guy who found LS's wallet and then later his roommate who also saw it on the ledge.)
But MB May have been outside of his apt. perhaps getting some fresh air and sees CR down below. CR perhaps motions to call JR, or even says it out loud... perhaps it wasn't a yell... and no one else hears this. So MB then calls JR, it's 3:30. In this case MB may never have been close enough to LS to see that she was injured. JR comes down and then they come up with a plan because she is not alive.
Another interesting thing that has crossed my mind is how they would know for SURE that Lauren was actually dead - and be sure enough to go the extreme of disposing of her?? As far as I know, there were no med students in that group, and just because you can't detect a pulse or her breath, somebody could still be alive and in cardiac arrest or ODing, and in this case you CALL AN AMBULACNE ASAP. This is was Bo Dietel said - he didn't' know why any of them did not call an ambulance if she was clearly passed our or ODing. The prospect of having to explain that she did some coke or drank too much is nothing compared to driving down the street with a body in your car.
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When I first posted on this board bout three months ago, I was almost sure that one of the 5N rats were responsible, and argued for it.
Now, after thinking more and having more time pass....my mind has changed.
I think this was a random abduction. As bad as they appear to be, I just don't think it's likely for these boys - in their drunken state - to be able to successfully hide a body with no trace of DNA and keep it UNCOVERED, with nobody cracking, for over a year. And consider that both JR and CR returned to school the next year, renting the exact same townhouse. Do you really think they would have had enough gall to do that if they were actually guilty of dragging a decades body out of that apt and hiding it, not matter how "soulless' they are known to be? BD is equally open to the possibility or a random abduction as well.
Another interesting thing that has crossed my mind is how they would know for SURE that Lauren was actually dead - and be sure enough to go the extreme of disposing of her?? As far as I know, there were no med students in that group, and just because you can't detect a pulse or her breath, somebody could still be alive and in cardiac arrest or ODing, and in this case you CALL AN AMBULACNE ASAP. This is was Bo Dietel said - he didn't' know why any of them did not call an ambulance if she was clearly passed our or ODing. The prospect of having to explain that she did some coke or drank too much is nothing compared to driving down the street with a body in your car.
I think that Lauren was in the wrong place at the wrong time, and she did functionally walk away from 5N, and within the two or so blocks that nobody was watching her, she met her unfortunate fate involving some random pervert who nobody will likely ever know.
Of course, the million dollar question is that if these guys had nothing to do with it, why are they not talking and getting lawyers? The answer is pretty simple in my opinion: they are afraid. There was hefty amounts of shady stuff going on: large amounts of coke use, and maybe some gang rape. Stuff that - in it's own right - is enough to put somebody behind bars for a few years. Suppose these guys talked to the police or investigators and their elaborations regarding sexual exploits or source of the cocaine was revealed. With a family and public eager to lock somebody up and point a finger, it would be fairly easy to charge and accuse these kids with manslaughter or related cause. So their wealthy and law-savvey parents are probably saying: Don't talk!! Just don't say ANYTHING! If you want to stay out of jail, keep your mouth shut! Which, by and large, is the right advice.
Both the Gary Condit and John Benat Ramsey cases come to mind when for months there was a clear suspect, but then that person ended up not having any part in it. I'm inclined to believe it is similar here.
I agree with this.
I think the guys LS was with that night know more than they are letting on. However, I think what they know is that they aren't very good friends, very chivalrous, and didn't care very much for LS. I went (on scholarship) to a private, top tier university full of kids like this boys....wealthy parents, never worked a day in their lives, entitled, from the NY metro area, did well in school but also partied hard (alcohol and drugs - and not just some pot), and many were Jewish (not that religion has anything to do with LS going missing, but the similarities between many of my fellow student & these guys is really just stunning). I just feel like I know these guys or I knew guys like them in college. They only care about themselves. (Not all frat boys/rich kids but this "type" of frat boy rich kid, if that makes sense).
If LS was as drunk/high as all indications show, she was also a mess and probably a big pain to be around as the night progressed. They/he were/was probably sick of hearing her complain, talk, cry, fall down, or whatever she was doing. Her deteriorating condition was probably ruining their high/drunk time. If LS got to be especially annoying or grating, I can totally see them just letting her walk home alone so she'd be out of their hair, telling her to go home & leaving her with no choice but to walk, or even tricking her into walking home alone (you go, I'll be right behind you after I do whatever). I have seen plenty of guys (and some girls) in college treat "friends" this way if the friends became too annoying after too much partying. I wonder if the guy(s) didn't try to find LS a ride home because they were sick of her or she was complaining about wanting to go home and then they just told her something along the lines of "fine, get the heck out, I don't care" or tricked her. I've seen a group of guys tell a very drunk friend they were going down the street to another bar, walk the drunk guy out of the door, then turn back around and hide in the crowd at the bar (so drunk guy had walked outside alone, so drunk he kept walking for a while and never returned to the bar that night). If a person is really out of it, this kind of trickery can be done to get the annoying & very inebriated person out of one's hair. It's not something a caring friend would do or a decent adult, but these guys are highly self-centered and were barely adults. They're entitled, they want what they want (which is to enjoy themselves), so they don't think of others.
I've also seen drunk friends in college arguing that one of them was going to walk home when the other didn't think it was safe. The argument ended with "fine, walk home. I don't care! I'm done with you" and the drunk person walking home alone.
Perhaps LS was making a big fuss about going home. They try to find her a ride, even though she is demanding "I can walk home!" or something. When they can't find her a ride, they just let her walk out. Maybe they say they'll accompany her, she says "I can walk home alone!", argument ensues, and the guys say "fine!"
I don't think any of these guys necessarily raped then killed or "accidentally" killed Lauren. I guess an OD/Long QT syndrome reaction cover-up is possible, but I feel like they would have called 911 and claimed that she had done drugs or whatever before she met up with them. I just see them more as the jerk mega-rich frat boy who has never had a job or been taught by his parents to care about anyone besides himself who probably was sick of LS & how troublesome she was once she was so drunk/high (from descriptions I've read, I would have been none too pleased to have been around her that night, not that I'd let her leave on her own).
I just think it's likely the guys didn't really care about LS, were annoyed by her durnk/high shenanigans that were ruining their drunk/high time and just weren't very good friends or good people that night - and that all culminated in LS walking home alone and meeting with something nefarious in the vulnerable state she was in.
LS's case reminds me a lot of Morgan Harrington's. Allegedly she was drunk/high to the point of falling down (like LS), even cutting her face due to a fall in the bathroom, acting really pushy and weird (even with strangers outside the arena) and then her friends didn't seem bothered that she couldn't get back into the concert once she had left to smoke. They may have even been relieved that she couldn't get back if she was being an annoying drunk/high person ruining their concert (and if so, they surely felt badly about it later) as no one seemed to concerned about her alone out there in that state. Morgan was doing things completely out of character- like she was out of her mind, hitchiking on a bridge where she was last seen & the perp may have picked her up. Morgan somehow met up with a sexual predator that night when she was so vulnerable and so abandoned by her friends. Had her remains not been found & the DNA not linked to a past rape, we might all be having similar discussions about Morgan's friends like we are about the guys who were with LS that night.
Sorry for rambling. Please excuse typos (on a tablet).
I wonder if JW or ZO were to have comments out in the public like the 5N bunch does if that would change anyone's thinking?
The fact that there are few if any comments attributed to them almost seems to have allowed them to escape public scrutiny.