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"We still believe that she may not have left Corey and Mike's or Jay's apartment," Robert Spierer said. "The odds of her being abducted in that slim period are extremely low. That's not what I think happened."
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Robert and Charlene Spierer said they don't believe their daughter was abducted by a stranger.
It's very interesting to see that the Spierers (who are privy to way more information and have been all over Lauren's tracks and directly confronted POI's) have the identical view as some of us.
Some general comments regarding recent posts:
1) Those suggesting that she was left outside behind the dumpster until a decision was made:
This is plausible and we had discussed variations on this before.
A simple explanation... after LS fell face down for the last time in the gravel lot. CR may have tried to revive her, picking her up, etc... getting her closer to 5N. At some point realizing she was deceased he may have pulled her over to that area behind the dumpster. Then went up to his apt and began throwing up and freaking out. He tells MB and MB calls JR. They are now all involved, and JR for all reasons previously and endlessly discussed wraps it up with a simple conversation - CR will declare amnesia, MB will say she went to JR's and JR will handle the rest. Simple.
It doesn't matter a lot to me whether LS never made it up to 5N or if something similar happened if somehow CR managed to get her up the stairs. The rest would be pretty much the same. How does JR take care of Lauren's body? A) he does it himself - highly unlikely B) Out of towners take on the task - Probable C) local low life tasked with it - much less probable.
2) Disposal... @Dixie It is true that if we don't know who or how much time they had that the possibilites are indeed overwhelming. But if we can narrow down WHO was tasked with it and HOW MUCH TIME they had, then you can make some much better guesses. It seems very likely to me that the decision to remove her was made quickly and actioned quickly. Messing around by a dumpster for 5 minutes at close to 4:00am would not draw much attention, and this just happens to be an area with no cameras, low light, trees, and no rear entrances at 5N. Someone motivated could put her into a duffle bag into a vehicle in less than a minute. Now remember the 2 guys that saw her wallet and keys did not see anything going on just a few minutes after LS had fallen so she was picked up and moved somewhere and CR was the one with her at the time. So she was at least closer to 5N if not making it all the way there. Because of the Cadaver dog "hit" it seems to increase the probability that she was there. I don't know if a dumpster can give a false "hit" but if the dogs are good enough this would indicate an extremely high probability that she was there. I think it would be way too risky to try to dump her in that dumpster itself. But CR laying her down there and running upstairs... that's extremely likely. It only would take a couple minutes to get there from where she fell, and then a couple minutes later the guys seeing the wallet would not be able to see anything strange from their vantage. So... MB calls JR at 3:30. That's almost 1/2 hr later. CR might have spent a few minutes with her... trying to revive her, checking to see if she was alive... reeling in shock... then a few minutes vomitting upstairs and eventually getting it together to tell MB. (I figure this gets us to about 3:15 to 3:30am) MB may or may not have gone down to "see". There seems to be enough time for that... but otherwise maybe CR and MB talked a few minutes or CR took a bit longer to deal with it. But eventually at 3:30 JR is called. And then or immediately afterwards, he "knows". It seems to me that JR and perhaps guest would go to CR/MB's and make that simple agreement. Then JR and/or guest (or other peripheral person) goes and takes a "look" It's confirmed that she is dead. Putting her into a duffle or other container and into a vehicle all could have been done by 3:45 to 4:00. Now the question is... how does this vehicle escape video cameras that captured the white truck for example? I don't think it could.
But by 4:15 to 4:30 JR is making calls to DR and ?? So, by this time LS is gone. Now if I were JR trying to make it look like LS was going back to SW, I would mostly likely call DR and HT, we don't know who the second call was to. I don't think JR would be making these calls unless LS was already gone. But if she were laying dead out by that dumpster, she would most likely have been removed between 3:30 and 4:30am. The tricky thing is... was she placed inside a vehicle and that vehicle moved later (like the next day), or did the vehicle leave immediately, or was a vehicle not involved?
These same questions apply even if Lauren passed away at 5N. If LS was already deceased before reaching 5N, I agree it's most likely she was stashed outside and the dumpster area is rather ideal. If no vehicle was involved in disposal that night, she would have to be much closer in the area, but has perhaps since been moved. If a vehicle was involved, it may have been right there behind 5N... or even 1 or more blocks away. Would you want to be carrying a 100 lb duffle or perhaps backpack around at 4:00am? Seems like a good reason to get stopped by LE. We discussed before how many vehicles could have been involved, and where they might have been located. Publicly we only know that CR's car was searched and sniffed. But all of these other vehicles seemed to have slipped by LE and the cameras??
3) Discussions about LS attempting to procure drugs after she could no longer stand up or was conscious. Sorry this does not make any sense. I don't buy the idea that LS would go to clearly dangerous House Bar ALONE, BAREFOOT, BROKE, PHONELESS (with only KEYCARD and FAKE ID) in search of "free" cocaine. This is simply a theory to validate JR's implausible version of events. Seems unlikely she was begging for coke at Kilroy's too. Previous stories have indicated the exact opposite - that she was shooting her mouth off about being high on coke and xanax. This is trying to build more smoke and mirrors out of smoke and mirrors, it's pretty much useless. There is no indication that LS and CR were followed by anyone from Kilroy's there is a camera and witness trail right until that last (and possibly fatal) fall (nearly 1 hr after leaving Kilroy's). There are only 2 pieces of evidence that indicate Lauren was alive after that final recorded fall. Statements from MB and Statements from JR. These statements are in stark contrast to one another and moreover Lauren's recorded condition. MB and JR can't be believed and so hypothesizing around remote possibilites based on remote possibilities is pretty much fantasy. There is nothing to indicate that LS had ever been to House Bar before, much less alone! There is nothing in her behavior consistent with that of a coke *advertiser censored* (which is what she would be in that scenario). Partying with affluent college friends is WAY different than a trashy indigent addict spreading it for couple of lines. What a bizarre desecration of Lauren this image would be... and the only one to benefit - JR! Nonsense!
4) "Cadaver" Dogs... If we are to assume optimal use of dogs in this case, LS was alive at least briefly after that last fall. Then that she was by that dumpster deceased at least long enough for the scent to establish. Finally, that there was no trace of her deceased inside 5N. This doesn't mean she never made it to 5N... but would strongly appear that way.
Less optimal use of dogs...
false positives and false negatives.
Just don't know enough about the dogs and trainer used in this case to know either way. But LE should certainly know, and perhaps the Spierers know too. I would be a lot more interested in knowing the degree of certainty of that "hit" by the dumpster. Because this would be evidence that "someone" was dead there and most likely this would be LS, which again makes CR/MB AND JR liars. After spending a lot of time researching these types of dogs and their ability to smell, if properly trained there is no question they know the difference between a dead human and rotting meat/garbage/animals/etc... and even if she was only there a short while - like 15 minutes immediately after death. It's all got to do with the type of dog and the training. If LE has a high degree of certainty Lauren was deceased there by the dumpster, it makes sense they would immediately search CR's vehicle because obviously this was in line with the path back to 5N and right after the final recorded fall. At the time LE may not have known enough about what was going on with JR and who was at JR's that night. By the time they realized JR's strong connection to this, school was out, people were gone... cars were gone.
