Is the fact that Terri hasn't been arrested indicative of lack of evidence?

[cluciano63]

The question of this thread is has she not been arrested due to lack of evidence and the answer has to be "yes". If they had evidence that showed she kidnapped and harmed Kyron, she would be charged. Therefore, they don't. At least, certainly not enough.

 

[Billylee]

For the record, Terri Horman was TOLD she failed the LDT. That sometimes happens in cases where LE is trying to make them talk, it's quite true and has been discussed here at length. The quote of her failing, came from her telling a friend, and also Kaine & DY & TY that "they" LE told her she'd failed.

LE has never told us, the public, or anyone else that I know of that TH failed a LDT.

 

[GrainneDhu]

The question of this thread is has she not been arrested due to lack of evidence and the answer has to be "yes". If they had evidence that showed she kidnapped and harmed Kyron, she would be charged. Therefore, they don't. At least, certainly not enough.

I agree that whatever LE has, they obviously do not consider it sufficient to convince a jury beyond a reasonable doubt.

They may have evidence that clears the standard of probable cause; no way to know. There's quite a gulf between probable cause and beyond a reasonable doubt and in this particular case, I think LE would wait to clear the higher standard.

Since GPS has gotten so cheap and is so incredibly easy to install (less than three seconds), I believe that any vehicle TMH may have access to is probably already under surveillance and if she made any significant deviation from whatever her routine now is, she would be picked up.

While the nature of the crime involved is horrific, she really doesn't seem to fit the category of being someone who is obviously a hazard to the general public.

LE can only gain by waiting until whatever it is they have seems to indicate guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.

 

[cluciano63]

Well, by not finding Kyron, LE may have already lost any chance of forensic evidence or even cause of death, if he is dead, so it is not really correct to say that time is on their side. If they had found Kyron, I would agree...but not knowing if he is waiting to be rescued, is being abused at this moment, or has been left on a hillside...does not really put LE in the driver's seat, in my opinion.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Well, by not finding Kyron, LE may have already lost any chance of forensic evidence or even cause of death, if he is dead, so it is not really correct to say that time is on their side. If they had found Kyron, I would agree...but not knowing if he is waiting to be rescued, is being abused at this moment, or has been left on a hillside...does not really put LE in the driver's seat, in my opinion.

At different points in the investigation, risk/benefit analyses change.

The original question was "Is the fact that Terri hasn't been arrested indicative of lack of evidence?"

I think it's clear that if LE thought they have evidence beyond a reasonable doubt, they'd arrest her. Since they have not arrested her, I think it means they have somewhat less evidence.

Does that evidence rise to the level of probable cause? I really don't know but, at this point, I doubt they'd arrest her if tney thought they only had probable cause. Going to court with just barely enough evidence for probable cause would be a huge gamble and one which they do not need to take yet.

They've already gotten witness testimony in front of a grand jury (which tends to "lock" it into memory), so it is unlikely they will lose the evidence they currently have. If they continue investigating, there is still, I think, a reasonable hope that they will discover more evidence.

As for whether Kyron is alive or not, I'm almost convinced he is not. I don't see any credibility to theories that TMH handed him off or stashed him somewhere. At this point, I think if Kyron is alive, it will be because he was snatched by a nonfamily abductor.

And since LE appears to be focused on TMH as the perpetrator, a nonfamily abductor is more likely to get away.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I think the chances of a non - family abduction are little to NONE!. Terri's treatment of Kyron clearly indicated increasing dislike & abuse. No one else had a reason to abduct &kill this sweet boy. Come on LE interview more of the AL ANON friends.!!!!:waitasec:

Motive is a tricky thing and often not particularly useful in solving a case.

For example, who would have ever guessed that the alleged motive for killing 9 year old Elizabeth Olten would be "I wanted to see what it would be like to kill someone"?

Sometimes the perpetrator is indeed the person with the most obvious or seemingly strongest motive. But it's not unusual for that person with the seemingly strongest motive not to be guilty as well.

Sometimes the person with what seems like the weakest motive is guilty. I'm thinking of several cases where someone altered their will away from previous heirs. The new heir(s) could be viewed as having the strongest motive because a will can always be altered yet again so long as the person making the will is still alive and of sound mind. And yet the killer in several cases turned out to be one of the former heirs, which makes no sense at all. The death of the person "locks in" the last will, the one cutting out the former heirs.

And a nonfamily abductor could come with their own motive: sexual gratification. Their motive is more about who they are and not at all about Kyron or any specific victim, except in so far as their victim fits the general parameters of what they are looking for.

 

[TxLady2]

The question of this thread is has she not been arrested due to lack of evidence and the answer has to be "yes". If they had evidence that showed she kidnapped and harmed Kyron, she would be charged. Therefore, they don't. At least, certainly not enough.

I agree. I don't think they have the evidence to charge her, much less prosecute. It's not just that they don't have the body, but there is no crime scene, no murder weapon, no motive that they can prove... nothing. They couldn't even prove the MFH plot. Maybe it didn't happen.

As for the LDT's... I would be willing to bet that they did not ask her if she killed Kyron. They don't like to use that term. It was more like, "Did you cause harm to Kyron? Do you know who caused him to disappear? Do you know where he is right now?" And since they are not admissable in court, they can't use her failure of a LDT as evidence against her.

 

[Aedrys]

At different points in the investigation, risk/benefit analyses change.

The original question was "Is the fact that Terri hasn't been arrested indicative of lack of evidence?"

I think it's clear that if LE thought they have evidence beyond a reasonable doubt, they'd arrest her. Since they have not arrested her, I think it means they have somewhat less evidence.

Does that evidence rise to the level of probable cause? I really don't know but, at this point, I doubt they'd arrest her if tney thought they only had probable cause. Going to court with just barely enough evidence for probable cause would be a huge gamble and one which they do not need to take yet.

They've already gotten witness testimony in front of a grand jury (which tends to "lock" it into memory), so it is unlikely they will lose the evidence they currently have. If they continue investigating, there is still, I think, a reasonable hope that they will discover more evidence.

As for whether Kyron is alive or not, I'm almost convinced he is not. I don't see any credibility to theories that TMH handed him off or stashed him somewhere. At this point, I think if Kyron is alive, it will be because he was snatched by a nonfamily abductor.

And since LE appears to be focused on TMH as the perpetrator, a nonfamily abductor is more likely to get away.

But why is it assumed that LE hasn't pursued every other lead possible? Why is it assumed that they haven't done anything but focus on TH? I choose to believe LE is doing their job. I choose to believe they have looked at every perpetrator possible before deciding the only logical lead is TH. I don't think this was coin flip. I don't think they are ignoring other possible suspects. Good lord, that would be an epic failure to protect people if they just ignored anyone else but TH. It would be incompetence on an unforgivable level, and I just won't believe LE would be that negligent in this case.

They are doing their job. They just need time. Many cases take years to solve. No case is just open and shut and that's it. Investigations are not formulaic like television. And as long as TH remains the last person to see Kyron and the gift that just keeps on giving, I don't blame LE for keeping a focus on her. She is bringing this on herself. And I highly doubt some predator is going to get away. LE owes the community the right to feel safe and protected. I bet they have checked out every predator they can, and have left no stone unturned. Anything less is putting countless lives at risk just to sabotage and destroy an innocent person. Come on now, does that sound logical or ethical to anyone?

I think the real surprise is going to be just how guilty TH is in the end. We're going to shocked that this normal looking SAHM and great mother could be as evil and soulless as LE has found out she is. They just need time to put it all together, and get their ducks on a row. I'd rather a solid, well put together investigation then a chance that TH could get off on sloppy police work or a technicality.

Like I've said before and will continue to say, We. Just. Need. To. Be. PATIENT! There will be an arrest when LE is ready.

All IMO, respectfully.

 

[Jo in Calif]

But why is it assumed that LE hasn't pursued every other lead possible? Why is it assumed that they haven't done anything but focus on TH? I choose to believe LE is doing their job. I choose to believe they have looked at every perpetrator possible before deciding the only logical lead is TH. I don't think this was coin flip. I don't think they are ignoring other possible suspects. Good lord, that would be an epic failure to protect people if they just ignored anyone else but TH. It would be incompetence on an unforgivable level, and I just won't believe LE would be that negligent in this case.

They are doing their job. They just need time. Many cases take years to solve. No case is just open and shut and that's it. Investigations are not formulaic like television. And as long as TH remains the last person to see Kyron and the gift that just keeps on giving, I don't blame LE for keeping a focus on her. She is bringing this on herself. And I highly doubt some predator is going to get away. LE owes the community the right to feel safe and protected. I bet they have checked out every predator they can, and have left no stone unturned. Anything less is putting countless lives at risk just to sabotage and destroy an innocent person. Come on now, does that sound logical or ethical to anyone?

I think the real surprise is going to be just how guilty TH is in the end. We're going to shocked that this normal looking SAHM and great mother could be as evil and soulless as LE has found out she is. They just need time to put it all together, and get their ducks on a row. I'd rather a solid, well put together investigation then a chance that TH could get off on sloppy police work or a technicality.

Like I've said before and will continue to say, We. Just. Need. To. Be. PATIENT! There will be an arrest when LE is ready.

All IMO, respectfully.

Thank you, Thank you. You seem to put the words together so well.

 

[sorrell skye]

After reading this website (TY Gitana for recommending it):

http://www.nobodycases.com/

I've come to a personal conclusion that the detectives have conducted & are conducting a thorough investigation.

Having said that, I'm still mystified that no one has been indicted and/or arrested yet.

Perhaps it's due to statements like this (as recently as September 16) from Sheriff Staton:

"We have nothing to date that indicates he is not alive. So we will continue to conduct this investigation as though he is."

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/09/16/earlyshow/main6871823.shtml

It seems, based on this statement made by the Sheriff, that the investigation is operating on the premise that Kyron is still alive.

Has anyone from the Task Force or the MCSO issued a more recent statement that refutes the above statement made by Sheriff Staton?

 

[GrainneDhu]

But why is it assumed that LE hasn't pursued every other lead possible? Why is it assumed that they haven't done anything but focus on TH? I choose to believe LE is doing their job. I choose to believe they have looked at every perpetrator possible before deciding the only logical lead is TH. I don't think this was coin flip. I don't think they are ignoring other possible suspects. Good lord, that would be an epic failure to protect people if they just ignored anyone else but TH. It would be incompetence on an unforgivable level, and I just won't believe LE would be that negligent in this case.

SBM

Most of the time, LE agencies are competent and do a good job in finding the factual perpetrator.

Some of the time, well, that doesn't happen. LE arrests the factually innocent or does not solve the case at all. According to the Department of Justice, somewhere between 2.5% and 5% of prisoners behind bars today are the victims of wrongful conviction. That is a nontrivial failure rate when paired with the number of crimes that go unsolved altogether.

About 180,000 homicides since 1980 are unsolved; if you subtract the cases where LE thinks they know who did it but have been unable to get enough evidence to arrest, that's still about 140,000 unsolved homicides.

Among children from birth to five years of age, the solve rate is about 90%. That leaves a substantial rate of unsolved cases.

I'm not aware of any good method for predicting which cases will fall into which category.

They are doing their job. They just need time. Many cases take years to solve. No case is just open and shut and that's it. Investigations are not formulaic like television.

SBM

I wouldn't know about television, I don't own one.

Statistically, any homicide that is not solved in the first 72 hours is unlikely to end in an arrest or conviction. Statistically, the longer the case goes unsolved, the less likely it is to be solved.

Does LE think they know who the perpetrator is in Kyron's case? I honestly have no idea, based on what LE has said directly.

 

[Billylee]

We had been discussing some of these issues in the sext thread where we were off topic, and I recalled reading this article from August 21, it is an interesting read for those of you who may have missed it, it discusses several of the things that are going on right now. The parallel divorce/criminal case issue, the ability and fundamental right to get a fair trial and the release of information from LE to one side of the family. I think these are all very interesting points in this case, maybe they all need their own threads. Anyway interesting article.

http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2010/08/kyron_horman_divorce_case_cast.html

snipped:

"It might be a borderline situation, where there isn't anything that expressly makes it wrong," Paris said. "But, assuming there's eventually an indictment and a trial, the question an attorney at that time would likely raise is the fact that there's been all this stuff leaked that would threaten their client's ability to get a fair trial."

snipped:

Stuart Slotnick, a managing partner in New York for the criminal defense litigation firm Buchanan Ingersoll & Rooney and a former prosecutor who works alongside his father and well-known defense attorney Barry Slotnick, said usually law enforcement closely restricts the flow of information in an ongoing investigation so it doesn't hamper the inquiry.

"If they have evidence the stepmother was responsible for the disappearance, then they need to make an arrest," Slotnick said. "I would say a public relations campaign against a potential target is inappropriate, and likely counterproductive if in fact this is being orchestrated by the prosecution. If this is in fact happening, to overbear someone with bad press, it's not a conventional strategy."

The inclusion of criminal investigative information in the pending Horman divorce case isn't as unusual, and there are no rules that prohibit litigants from including such material, Paris said. "Certainly we've all read in divorce petitions salacious details that come out of divorce filings, especially when celebrities are involved."

But defense attorney John Henry Hingson III says what is unusual here is having a parallel civil proceeding, while there's an ongoing criminal case. Once Kaine Horman's lawyer includes material from law enforcement's investigation in a court filing, you can be sure Terri Horman's divorce attorney will argue that any police privilege to withhold criminal investigative material has been waived, and he probably will seek access to it, Hingson said. That doesn't mean he'll get it. A family law judge would end up the arbiter of the dispute.


(More at the link)

 

[gitana1]

SBM

Most of the time, LE agencies are competent and do a good job in finding the factual perpetrator.

Some of the time, well, that doesn't happen. LE arrests the factually innocent or does not solve the case at all. According to the Department of Justice, somewhere between 2.5% and 5% of prisoners behind bars today are the victims of wrongful conviction. That is a nontrivial failure rate when paired with the number of crimes that go unsolved altogether.

About 180,000 homicides since 1980 are unsolved; if you subtract the cases where LE thinks they know who did it but have been unable to get enough evidence to arrest, that's still about 140,000 unsolved homicides.

Among children from birth to five years of age, the solve rate is about 90%. That leaves a substantial rate of unsolved cases.

I'm not aware of any good method for predicting which cases will fall into which category.



SBM

I wouldn't know about television, I don't own one.

Statistically, any homicide that is not solved in the first 72 hours is unlikely to end in an arrest or conviction. Statistically, the longer the case goes unsolved, the less likely it is to be solved.

Does LE think they know who the perpetrator is in Kyron's case? I honestly have no idea, based on what LE has said directly.

These stats are part of the reason I view the death penalty with distaste. I truly believe some people just do not deserve to be alive and we are much better off, and safer, without certain people in the world. But the possibility of an innocent person being sentenced to death really, really troubles me.

Anyhow, thanks for the stats. I learned a few things I did not know before. Unfortunately, it makes me less hopeful about some of these cases - like Susan Powell, for example.

 

[PaulaF513]

The thing that really troubles me the most is when LE decides ( maybe subconsciously) that one person is guilty of a crime, begins working to build a case and stops looking at alternative theories. I absolutely fear that this scenerio is what is happening here.


What's more, I've seen cases where innocent people were cowed or bullied into confessing to crimes they positively did not commit, by aggressive interrogators who were cocksure they had the right perp. That's a compounded tragedy and a true danger to society because it leaves a true criminal free to reoffend. When the crime is murder or the abduction of a child, it becomes a truly horrendous injustice. I've learned that one of the most constant techniques LE uses is telling a suspect that they failed a LDT, even when it isn't true. And yes, they absolutely ask questions specific to the crime at hand, interspersed with seemingly insignificant ones.

Just like everyone here, I don't know if TH is guilty... directly or peripherally...or not, in Kyron's disappearance. Perhaps if LE were a bit more open about the actual evidence that has been obtained, it might jog the memory of a witness who can put the investigation on track to find the child and positively identify the guilty party.

I do feel the public lambasting she received from the bio-parents was not helpful in locating Kyron. It did however reinforce the public's notion that TH is a sleaze, who is capable of harming the boy. I think that is dangerous because it can create a public mindset that the only important evidence that should be reported has to relate to her.

I think that is so strange because until the day he disappeared, TH was Kyron's primary caregiver. In all the dirt that's being made public, is there anything that says she ever hurt Kyron?

Maybe LE has true evidence that they are keeping secret at the moment, because they believe it points only to her. What if it points to someone else that they haven't considered because they are so focussed on TH alone?

I dunno...I just pray that this child is found soon...that Kyron doesn't become the perrenial little boy lost.

 

[ThoughtFox]

I do feel the public lambasting she received from the bio-parents was not helpful in locating Kyron. It did however reinforce the public's notion that TH is a sleaze, who is capable of harming the boy. I think that is dangerous because it can create a public mindset that the only important evidence that should be reported has to relate to her.

If it's all a bunch of lies and slander, then hey, let Terri come out and say so. Let her refute all the allegations. Either in writing or an interview.

But no, so far, she has been completely silent except for some excuses about what happened at school that morning and the fact that she doesn't want to answer anymore questions from the police.

If Desiree and Kaine were way off-base, why hasn't Terri pushed back? Why didn't she get in front of cameras to speak up for herself? Instead, she clammed up and lawyered up really fast.

The reason this has become so one-sided in favor of what the biological parents have said is mainly because Terri won't give us a counterpoint. Her silence has not helped her at all. Nor has letting her Batphone friends and DeDe do the talking for her. What is the point of all that if she is innocent?

 

[Dee10]

Paula I could feel your pain and concern in your post. I see the situation differently, as TH has the best of the best lawyers, there is no way she will be cowed or bullied into a false confession. In fact, I would almost bet she hasn't even talked to LE since Houze was hired.

They did look at other people, the FBI went down the SO registry, they checked school staff and I am sure anyone who had contact with Kyron. They have said to the effect they do not have a smoking gun but a major ton of evidence and have narrowed their focus.

Regarding the polygraphs, although LE can lie and say you didn't pass I doubt that happened here and who walks out in the middle of a poly? I also don't think LE or his lawyer would allow Kaine to go to court if it were true, because at that point they may have had to produce evidence. We now know they had copies of the texts.

Bottom line from my perspective, with all the multiple jurisdictions, prosecutors and the FBI...I would find it hard to believe, all these professionals are looking at the evidence wrong. I am not expecting much from Dateline this week, but I am very anxious to hear the interview of some witnesses that day.

 

[ThoughtFox]

Just like everyone here, I don't know if TH is guilty... directly or peripherally...or not, in Kyron's disappearance. Perhaps if LE were a bit more open about the actual evidence that has been obtained, it might jog the memory of a witness who can put the investigation on track to find the child and positively identify the guilty party.

It's interesting - some people feel they haven't released enough evidence.

Others think that releasing the sext messages was a step too far.

If LE decides to release more evidence, it's not necessarily going to go in Terri's favor, and we have to accept that.

We have yet to hear about any evidence that points to someone else. And that could just be because there isn't any, not because this is some witch hunt.

 

[jadejazzkayla]

It's interesting - some people feel they haven't released enough evidence.

Others think that releasing the sext messages was a step too far.

If LE decides to release more evidence, it's not necessarily going to go in Terri's favor, and we have to accept that.

We have yet to hear about any evidence that points to someone else. And that could just be because there isn't any, not because this is some witch hunt.

bbm...

Re: Kyron's disappearance, Le hasn't released any evidence that points to terri. and that could just be because she is innocent and there isn't any.

 

[ThoughtFox]

bbm...

Re: Kyron's disappearance, Le hasn't released any evidence that points to terri. and that could just be because she is innocent and there isn't any.

Okay, fair enough - six of one, half a dozen of another. You are as free to believe Terri is innocent as I am free to believe she might be guilty.

I'm just not on the fence because to me, the facts of the case so far are enough evidence. Terri was the last person to see Kyron alive. Terri doesn't have a great alibi that morning ("driving around"). LE has her cell phone records. LE has her sext messages. Then we have the MFH plot.

We know more than we think we know, I think. :angel: The fact she hasn't been arrested doesn't mean she is innocent or that there isn't plenty of evidence.

 

[PaulaF513]

At this point, I would welcome any evidence at all.

I don't have any partiality toward or against anyone in particular....I just want Kyron found and the responsible party brought to justice. I couldn't care less about TH's sleazy sexting...I fully suspect each member of this "blended" family has a secret or two that might tarnish their image, if publicized.

I just think that the alleged MFh and the RO/divorce issues are distractions from the deadly serious disappearance of a small child. The public should be clamoring for LE to find out something about Kyron's fate, not awaiting the release of some new salacious tidbit about his SM.