Italy - Sailing yacht sank off Italian coast, 15 rescued, 7 missing, 19 August 2024

[Ruthbullock]

And the Dutch captain - Karsten Borner, whose boat picked up the survivors - supplied the photos because ..... he was irritated by repeated attempts by the ship's builder to pin the blame on the crew.

He also said ..... 'My first mate said, 'she has gone, she has sunk', and I was laughing at him, saying such a big thing doesn't disappear in a minute. He was right.'

Photo of ill-fated Bayesian superyacht minutes before it sunk

These photos were from 14 minutes before, so whilst useful, they are not definitive proof they were all closed (and they only show one side of the boat). In some of the earlier discussions, it was thrown around, the possibility that the door that was opened was potentially the one to release the hard sided tender craft due to the storm. Does anyone know if that’s the side that’s submerged on the sea floor? Also is that on the side that’s photographed? They must surely know by now if any of the doors were opened, If not from witness statements, from looking at it underwater? Any open hatches on the sea bed however may have been forced open due to internal pressure as it went down, it’s not going to be easy to establish the hatch door theory.

 

[SouthAussie]

These photos were from 14 minutes before, so whilst useful, they are not definitive proof they were all closed (and they only show one side of the boat). In some of the earlier discussions, it was thrown around, the possibility that the door that was opened was potentially the one to release the hard sided tender craft due to the storm. Does anyone know if that’s the side that’s submerged on the sea floor? Also is that on the side that’s photographed? They must surely know by now if any of the doors were opened, If not from witness statements, from looking at it underwater? Any open hatches on the sea bed however may have been forced open due to internal pressure as it went down, it’s not going to be easy to establish the hatch door theory.

I am pretty sure that is what Karsten Borner is talking about (in the article). And if the door was obviously in a closed position 14 minutes before the boat sank, it wouldn't have been opened after that.


Three crew members are being investigated by prosecutors in Sicily after they were accused of leaving the large door open on the rear port side of the 56-metre yacht.
The flooding is alleged to have started after fierce winds and waves drove water through the door in the hull.

However, two photographs - which are set to be published in an ITV documentary broadcast on Thursday - appear to show the door shut in the hours and minutes leading up to the sinking.

 

[ch_13]

The previous captain of the yacht wrote an article about it shortly after the collapse and said there was no way the door could have been open...

Former Bayesian captain offers insight

Stephen Edwards, captain of the 58.6m Perini Navi built Seahawk, was previously Captain from 2015 to 2020 for the 56m Perini Navi Bayesian which sank

www.sailingscuttlebutt.com

Bayesian had only one shell door in the hull, on the port side aft. As this was very close to the waterline, it was rarely used (remembering the extra 30T of ballast mentioned earlier… this caused the water line to be 100mm higher than other 56m Perinis, hence much closer to the bottom of the shell opening meaning it could only be opened in flat calm conditions… 100% it was NOT open at night)

 

[Ruthbullock]

The previous captain of the yacht wrote an article about it shortly after the collapse and said there was no way the door could have been open...

Former Bayesian captain offers insight

Stephen Edwards, captain of the 58.6m Perini Navi built Seahawk, was previously Captain from 2015 to 2020 for the 56m Perini Navi Bayesian which sank

www.sailingscuttlebutt.com

Bayesian had only one shell door in the hull, on the port side aft. As this was very close to the waterline, it was rarely used (remembering the extra 30T of ballast mentioned earlier… this caused the water line to be 100mm higher than other 56m Perinis, hence much closer to the bottom of the shell opening meaning it could only be opened in flat calm conditions… 100% it was NOT open at night)

But he also added in the next paragraph:

Other deck hatch / superstructure openings that breach the watertight integrity on Bayesian are on or close to the centerline of the vessel. For these to be taking water if open, the vessel would have to be heeled way beyond the Downflooding Angle mentioned earlier, and hence already flooding via ducting/vents.

Only one opening was located far from the centerline, and could be vulnerable to downflooding at lower angles of heel… this is the deck access to the lazarette area towards the stern. However, as it is located on the port (left) side of the aft deck, it would be unlikely to be an initial factor in this scenario as we know that Bayesian was knocked down to starboard, and as such this hatch, even if opened as crew were on deck etc, would have been one of the later parts to submerge.

So whilst not the cause, he hasn’t ruled out that some were perhaps open and aggravated the situation. This is a fair and diplomatic point, but the reality is if they were all open and there was no storm, the boat wouldn’t have sunk, likewise if they were all closed we don’t know if the boat would have still sunk.

 

[SouthAussie]

I hope this ITV documentary goes up online. I keep looking for it, but it may not have played quite yet.


In a new ITV documentary airing tonight, Karsten Borner, captain of the Sir Robert Baden Powell, said: “In the lightening, I saw a big, black triangle – and this might have been the moment when the ship sank ... We were looking at the radars and she was gone.”

The film also recounted how Dr Lynch’s wife Angela Bacares described her ordeal as “terrifying” to local media after managing to survive the sinking.

Ship captain describes terrifying moment Bayesian sunk ahead of Mike Lynch’s inquest

Captain of nearby boat recalls seeing ‘big, black triangle’ going down in lightening

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Dotta]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1842145867932815491

"Inquests into the deaths of all four were opened by the Suffolk Coroner in Ipswich and Mr Lynch lived at nearby Loudham Hall in Wickham Market."

 

[SouthAussie]

• The time of death for Michael Lynch, Hannah Lynch, Jonathan Bloomer and Judy Bloomer has been confirmed as 5.00am on 19 August 2024.
  The Bayesian was approximated to have sunk between 4.15 and 4.45am the same day.
• The cause of death for Michael Lynch has been attributed to "drowning", but the deaths for the other three parties are still under investigation.
  Superintendent Mike Brown of Suffolk Police clarified that there is "often a need for further tests to be taken", citing the verdict as "not unusual" and something the authorities see "very often".
• Brown also confirmed the Italian authorities and Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) to be the principal investigators in the Bayesian case, with the UK courts reliant on both for "further evidential material".
• The court has been adjourned "for further work to be completed", according to senior coroner Nigel Parsley. The official hearing will be conducted on 15 April 2025.

https://www.boatinternational.com/yachts/news/bayesian-deaths-inquiry-yacht-perini-navi-inquest-court-hearing

 

[Tortoise]

• The time of death for Michael Lynch, Hannah Lynch, Jonathan Bloomer and Judy Bloomer has been confirmed as 5.00am on 19 August 2024.
• The cause of death for Michael Lynch has been attributed to "drowning", but the deaths for the other three parties are still under investigation.
  Superintendent Mike Brown of Suffolk Police clarified that there is "often a need for further tests to be taken", citing the verdict as "not unusual" and something the authorities see "very often".
• Brown also confirmed the Italian authorities and Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) to be the principal investigators in the Bayesian case, with the UK courts reliant on both for "further evidential material".
• The court has been adjourned "for further work to be completed", according to senior coroner Nigel Parsley. The official hearing will be conducted on 15 April 2025.

https://www.boatinternational.com/yachts/news/bayesian-deaths-inquiry-yacht-perini-navi-inquest-court-hearing

Oh dear, so they seem pretty certain that they were alive for about an hour after it sunk. I can't imagine.

 

[SouthAussie]

Oh dear, so they seem pretty certain that they were alive for about an hour after it sunk. I can't imagine.

Yes, about 15-45 mins after the boat sank. I missed out a bit in my copy/paste, but I have edited it in now.

I thought they were pretty certain of the time the boat sank, but maybe the following approximation is when the boat settled on the bottom? IDK

"The Bayesian was approximated to have sunk between 4.15 and 4.45am the same day." (from my linked article above)

 

[SouthAussie]

Watching a video put out by Superyacht News. I have been following their analysis in a series of videos, as more information becomes clear.

The video shows where the vents are on the boat, and how close they are to the water when the boat heels in a normal situation.

It also shows the sunken lounge. They say that as the yacht heeled way over, that sunken lounge would very quickly fill with lots of water.





They say that Italian Sea Group had released some incomplete (and some erroneous) data to the Italian media.

Bayesian Yacht Company Puts Out Incomplete Yacht Data | Ep392 SY News

 

[SouthAussie]

Just want to add one more screenshot. Superyacht News show the door in the hull. It has rods that slide in to keep it locked in place. I don't know if these rods slide in automatically, when the door is closed, or if that requires a push of a button/flick of a switch.
So there could be some mechanical failure, or oversight, that didn't keep that door closed when it heeled over.



BTW: An omission/error in the data included the gyroscope info, which shows the boat turning. There was no gyroscope info, so the turning of the boat that we have seen is only an assumption by the AIS system.
There were also other omissions in the ISG data ... they didn't show the vents or the downflood angle.
And some erroneous data put out by ISG was that they placed the Sir Robert Baden Powell boat on the wrong side of the Bayesian. They placed it on the starboard side, when it was on the port side.

Bayesian Yacht Company Puts Out Incomplete Yacht Data | Ep392 SY News

 

[Baby baby Jane]

@SouthAussie
100% those Super yacht news videos are so informative. Especially detail about which way the Bayesian is pointing on that GPS mapping. Super yacht news shows demo - it can be inaccurate showing ship pointing opposite direction. (The shipbuilder seems v nervous putting out mis-info & distraction).

 

[LittleSeaTree]

Watching a video put out by Superyacht News. I have been following their analysis in a series of videos, as more information becomes clear.

The video shows where the vents are on the boat, and how close they are to the water when the boat heels in a normal situation.

It also shows the sunken lounge. They say that as the yacht heeled way over, that sunken lounge would very quickly fill with lots of water.

View attachment 535540View attachment 535541View attachment 535542

View attachment 535543View attachment 535544

They say that Italian Sea Group had released some incomplete (and some erroneous) data to the Italian media.

Bayesian Yacht Company Puts Out Incomplete Yacht Data | Ep392 SY News

I would rather go to the dentist than ride on that yacht. MOO

 

[Dotta]

I would rather go to the dentist than ride on that yacht. MOO

Then,
why did this rich man buy it?
Are there no advisors/experts on safety?
Were there no other yachts to choose from?

Also,
the yacht was built in 2008!!!
How come it survived for 16 years if it was soooo unreliable?

In most catastrophes I read about
the culprit was "human factor".

JMO

 

[Baby baby Jane]

Then,
why did this rich man buy it?
Are there no advisors/experts on safety?
Were there no other yachts to choose from?

Also,
the yacht was built in 2008!!!
How come it survived for 16 years if it was soooo unreliable?

In most catastrophes I read about
the culprit was "human factor".

JMO

It’s had updating and re-fit. IMO the computer upgrade contributed.

Yacht brokers … the car salesmen of the sea.

 

[LondonBloke]

Just by the by and dropping this here re. various "interested parties."

“Oh! What a Tangled Web We Weave/When First We Practice to Deceive!”

omo, obvs.

 

[SouthAussie]

It’s had updating and re-fit. IMO the computer upgrade contributed.

Yacht brokers … the car salesmen of the sea.

And people can sometimes inadvertently make a "lemon" that cannot withstand a serious incident.

Remember the Pinto? That vehicle passed all inspections, and you were fine if no-one ran into the back end of the car. But if they did, the cars sometimes caught fire.

The Monaco Boat Show was on after the Bayesian tragedy. A broker was selling Fidelis, which is a sister ship to the Bayesian. He didn't want to talk about the Bayesian incident other than to say that it was a one-off, it wouldn't happen again.

Bayesian tragedy has not blown superyacht brokers off course

Despite the sinking of Mike Lynch’s $25m vessel the industry remains buoyant, with 120 yachts on display at this year’s Monaco Yacht Show

www.thetimes.com

 

[LittleSeaTree]

Then,
why did this rich man buy it?
Are there no advisors/experts on safety?
Were there no other yachts to choose from?

Also,
the yacht was built in 2008!!!
How come it survived for 16 years if it was soooo unreliable?

In most catastrophes I read about
the culprit was "human factor".

JMO

Lots of questions for sure! Of course everyone is different, but I think I’d much rather ride on a nice wide yacht with a lot of deck space.

 

[LittleSeaTree]

It’s had updating and re-fit. IMO the computer upgrade contributed.

Yacht brokers … the car salesmen of the sea.

100% car salesmen of the sea, love it

 

[Dotta]

It’s had updating and re-fit. IMO the computer upgrade contributed.

This post reminded me of a saying:

"Better" is the enemy of "Good"

JMO