Much appreciated,
@femto. As you say, there is such a dearth of English-language reporting on this case. And 99.9% of what is out there is a copy of a copy of a flawed / poorly-translated original. Even some of the major podcast titles covering these murders are filled with mistakes (due to this very reason). So yes, it was well overdue that a long-form podcast on this case was made. I'm glad people found FACELESS informative and I'm grateful for your words.
I appreciate your thoughts on this, even if we disagree on a lot. You raise many good points and I'll do my best to answer each one. You'll see in my responses, I'll raise a lot of questions. To be clear, they're rhetorical. No need to reply. At any rate, as I'm facing a deadline, even if you had further responses, it's unlikely I'll have further comment for you on this.
The skatepark is across from the house. The playground is for kids which is directly behind it. Could you use that for skating? I suppose so but that's something I've never seen on any of the occasions I went there / never heard of in the conversations I've had. The first image below is of the skatepark. The second is its relation to the Miyazawa home:
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You can see the house to the left. I've seen skaters/cyclists etc using that whole open space. The layout has changed down the years but all the skaters I spoke to said they would bring their own equipment to create their lines etc. Back in 2000, skating was generally frowned on in Japan and, short of going guerilla-style through the streets, spots like these were cherished. The playground directly behind the house I believe you're referring to is the Choo-Choo Park. So yeah, I can't say that skaters
never used it to skate. But everyone I spoke to was referring to the space in the pictures. Guess I don't see much point using the playground when there's a dedicated space a few steps away? It's irrelevant, either way.
"It couldn't be that many."
Why not? Based on what? With all respect, I believe you're wrong. Obviously, I can't tell you the total figure of skaters the TMPD have questioned. But I can tell you that I've spoken to a number of them that were interviewed and they told me the same story: the detectives wanted only two things. 1) their fingerprints to eliminate them. 2)
Names, names, names. Detectives came with print-outs from skating videos and skate magazines, they came with long lists.
Do you know X, do you know Y, tell us where we can we find Z. So, clearly, it
could be that many.
To date, the TMPD has fingerprinted over 1 million men. They've had 280,000 personnel on this case in the last 24 years. Why couldn't they have chased down many skaters? Why not thousands, if they felt like it? The TMPD is the largest and, as I understand it, best-funded metro police force on earth. What conceivable reason could there be for them NOT chasing down skaters? Tokyo being big or there being other skate parks doesn't seem like a factor to me. Of course, I'm not saying they interviewed
every skater in Tokyo. But I strongly and respectfully disagree with "couldn't be that many."
No, I do not. I am relating what the ones who I spoke to told me. If I gave the impression that I was speaking for all human skaters, I phrased it poorly. I would like to think I am not in the habit of speaking about people as monoliths.
Obviously I am not saying Mikio could never have been in a bad mood. As I have said many times, we hear different things about him. Obviously I am not suggesting I am able to vouch for every single day in his life. What I am trying to relate, perhaps poorly, is the testimony of the skaters who used that park on a frequent basis in the 90s/2000. Skaters who were interviewed by the TMPD. They referred to the Mikio incident as singular. Maybe they were lying to me? But, as we know the TMPD fingerprinted them, clearly none were responsible for the murders. I would hope you would give me enough credit to assume that I am not claiming absolute certainty on events 24 years ago. I am talking about
what I have been able to ascertain. Clearly, the possibility of Mikio saying the wrong thing to the wrong person is still on the table.
Sure. Where do I assume the killer is normal? Given that he murdered four human beings for no immediately obvious reason, I think the word "normal" can be quite comfortably discounted here.
Your view on these clothes are as valid as anyone else's. You aren't the first person to view them as in-line (see what I did there) with the clothes of a skater. Though I think you are the first to take this view that has said they skated too? I can't recall. But I skated in my youth, too. Personally, from the very first time I saw those clothes, it felt wrong that a skater label was applied. JMO, of course. Then again, he's wearing tennis shoes and there's a tennis court right there. Why can't he be a tennis player? People wear tennis shoes to cycle around. Why couldn't he be a cyclist etc? In the end, this goes nowhere. I can only repeat what every single person on the scene in Soshigaya Park in the year 2000 I spoke to told me --
those aren't skater clothes. Sometimes, I asked them directly. Many times they gave me this opinion unprompted. Of course, they could be wrong. But seeing as they were there 24 years ago, I'm inclined to take their view on board.
Short of that, we're left with likelihood. Is it
likely he had just been skateboarding before the murders? Is it
likely he decided on a whim to murder the occupants of that house while on the half-pipe? Or is it more likely he would choose his clothes appropriately to hide his identity rather than adhering to 'skater style'? We know he covered his face with a handkerchief and wore a low-brimmed hat. If anything at all, this tells me he didn't want to be seen / recognised.
Mabori Beach is not literally a skate park, no. It's an area of coastline in Yokosuka where there happens to be a US naval base -- coincidentally, or not. But I also don't know if there was a skate park there in the year 2000.
I am not suggesting he vanished into thin air, I am suggesting there is a chance he left the country. And I do not say this simply because he wasn't caught. Not all crimes are solved in Japan. Obviously, that doesn't mean that every single criminal fled the country. I have stated by reasons for believing he left Japan so many times, you'll forgive me for not repeating myself. It's all there up-thread.
Let's not get into Jack the Ripper because I have my own views on that and I
don't believe he disappeared
We know the killer left in the early in the morning, yes. I too think he went home, covering his hand. Where else would he have realistically gone? However, the idea that a witness wouldn't pay attention to someone walking home bleeding due to them being Japanese - am I understanding that correctly? If so, I disagree. You asked if I'm aware of the Namiko Takaba case. Yes, I've actually just made a thread on it. In that case, there is no suggestion the killer isn't Japanese. Yet she was also bleeding and seen by witnesses. And I'm not wholly sure where your point about the police not tracking him down meaning he didn't disappear like JtR leads. Do you mean the TMPD overlooked him? Or he's living in plain sight? At any rate, we disagree. I don't say it's impossible he slipped past them. Only that for me it's more likely he left. End of.
I'll accept your point about the TMPD Homicide detectives having less experience
compared to US or European murder detectives -- on the numbers alone. And I too see the parallels between the Miyazaws and Namiko Takaba (as per my thread). But if we are going to get into cases where the police have lots of evidence but fail to find a murderer, then we are going to be jumping all over the Atlas.
The homicide rate in Japan is, as you say, incredible low. You are statistically more likely to die taking a selfie in Japan than you are to be murdered. And the conviction rate there is 99.99999%. Now there are problems with the judicial system in Japan as anyone with a passing knowledge will know. But you could also spin these facts as the TMPD being far, far superior, therefore, to any other police force in the world. I do not. I think this would be a gross simplification.
I have openly spoken against the TMPD
in some regards. I have also praised them in many others. My knowledge of their work is limited but, from what I have seen, I think you're characterisation is unfair. My view is that they are incredibly hard-working and, on the whole, deeply respectful. I also reject the view that any kind of comparative inexperience in the TMPD explains the lack of a result in this case. That's just my personal view. You have yours.
As for the
Nagoya Police, I have zero experience so I take no view. Nagoya Police and the TMPD are two separate forces -- I have been guilty in the past of saying or repeating the phrase "Japanese police". I mention this seeing as you don't like people so speak in monoliths
Thank you for explaining this to me. Respectfully, I am not ignoring it. But as I say, I don't know what the killer's DNA make up is. Nor do you. However, Dr. M has a fair idea seeing as he analysed it and his opinions are out there. He, too, will be aware of Japan's history. Is he wrong? I don't know, it's possible. As I say --once again-- I am going off only
what is known so far. I'm not going to repeat my points above but clearly, there is a chance the killer was foreign. There is a chance he was Japanese. Dr. M, the only person to be quoted on this subject who's actually seen the killer's DNA, says the former is more likely than the latter. I'll go with it until better information comes to light.
Yes. There is a chance the killer is
ethnically Korean (yes, I'm aware there is some genetic overlap). But the chance of him being from, or having ever visited, Korea is essentially zero. We know this thanks to the words of the Chief and his collaboration with the Korean authorities. This has been ruled out. This in no way infringes on my theory the killer is an American who left Japan shortly after the murders.
Why am I
putting too much credit in it? How can it be vital but also too much credit be put in it? Frankly, I have answered this so many times. I am yet to see one single, solitary solid reason as to why this
isn't important. What other clue in this case tells us where the killer was definitively before the murders? Not only that, it tells us he was able to access a closed world. Not open to Japanese, or casual tourists, or even most American citizens. I would like to hear how exactly I have been misled by this.
In the event that more information comes to light and it turns out the sand is not from Edwards, I will change my mind accordingly. My views must change as the evidence does.
I will not get into detail on this as I was told certain things off the record. But yes, we know one sand was from Edwards USAF base in California, the other was from the
region around Mabori Beach. I've spoken many times about Lorna Dawson and IDing soil / sand. If you listened to FACELESS, you'll know what I'm referring to.
The bag was manufactured in Osaka. It had no DNA or fingerprints belonging to anyone but the killer. So, (as I've said on this same page of the thread I'm pretty sure), if he bought it from someone else or stole it, he cleaned it in such a way as to remove all forensic traces of a previous owner but somehow still leave sand in the bag. Perhaps this is somehow possible. Again, on likelihood, to me, it is not. As for the idea that the bag came brand-new with sand in it from Mabori and a US military base on the other side of world : I cannot say it's impossible. I just don't see how.
I do not say I think he had military training or experience in killing. But how do you know he started killing randomly?
"So what?" Because perhaps he was thinking he had already bled all over the crime scene and now his fingerprints are there too. What difference would all the rest of the evidence make?
I am not saying this was smart. I am saying it's possibly what his thinking was. You not thinking it's a good explanation doesn't mean it isn't the explanation.
What the TMPD would do with his DNA / fingerprints if the killer has no criminal record in -let's say- the USA? As far as I know, the TMPD has never spoken with US authorities, though the killer's fingerprints are lodged with Interpol. However, when I spoke to Interpol, I was told:
we cannot comment on a case about which we have no information. So, I leave you to decide what has happened there.
And where do I suggest that a country would harbour a murderer because they don't like Japan? Again, I am not saying that his thought process is
good or logical. His carelessness doesn't have to make sense to you or me or anyone else.
With respect, that's neither here nor there. Very little in this case is ordinary or quotidian. If it were, the killer would already be hanged by now. I'm unsure of your best theory. I've come to my own. It's led to a person of interest who is exactly the very thing you say you find far-fetched. So, again, while you may not find it credible. I do. That's fine.
Though, I must quibble with your characterisation of the house being in the middle of nowhere. It is not.
Why is the house very hard to find?
Yes, I was actually agreeing with you on this point.
Again, that's your view. And there areas in which I disagree with them too. But if your argument is that because they haven't solved the case, therefore they are inexperienced and their work deserves to be doubted: I strongly disagree. This is simplistic, in my view, bordering on disrespectful. Though perhaps I've misunderstood your characterisation.
I really don't follow this. Because it happened 24 years ago, they can't chase the skater link? Why?
At any rate, we do know that they are chasing it based on everything stated above.
Your post is lengthy and, again, I appreciate your thoughts. But from here on in, anything that I've answered many, many times, I'm going to simply refer you back to my earlier answers.
With respect, they are up-thread time and again. You are free to look them up if you wish!
Fair point, sure. It's been 24 years and if you accept that 280,000 TMPD personnel have gone over this case frontways and backways then perhaps you'll have an explanation for why some personal connection with the killer and the family has been overlooked? I'm yet to hear one. Of course, it's possible he knew them. I just think it's unlikely given what we know.
Why would a random killer be more or less cautious? Also, are random killers fine to be spoken of in monoliths? Once again, thank you for your ideas
@femto. Those are mine. I'll wrap this up here.